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  1. #561
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilsfan View Post
    If it's true that he's not all that quick, athletic and explosive (and I don't know that it is) then ol'roy goes after him and hypothetically gets him as he looks to recruit over Marshall who he recruited over LD2 he'll immediately start looking to recruit over Quinn. Some kind of terrific guy that ol'roy. In roy they trust? I hope they're smarter than that.
    Ask Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins how they feel about Austin Rivers coming in next year. Ask Thorton how he feels about Duke recruiting another PG for next year. If there is a lockout, then you will have 3 PG's on the roster. Personally, I think this is how coaches will start to recruit at topnotch schools. With players leaving for the NBA so early, having an extra PG or SG in the stable is like money in the bank. Let the players work it out in practice, right?

    Cook is supposed to visit UNC very soon. He says UNC is his "dream school". I wouldn't be surprised to see Kabongo (sp?) end up at Duke next year and Cook or Rose at UNC.

  2. #562
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Talking Need Four!

    Quote Originally Posted by kong123 View Post
    Personally, I think this is how coaches will start to recruit at topnotch schools. With players leaving for the NBA so early, having an extra PG or SG in the stable is like money in the bank. Let the players work it out in practice, right?
    Kong et al.:

    Lets look at the data (Duke only, 'cuz that's what I have): Duke has had 38 recruited players from the Elton Brand class (97-98) through the Miles Plumlee class (08-09), an average of 3.2 per class plus two in-transfers.

    Of these 38:

    • 10 left early for the NBA (ave. 2.3 yrs in college)
    • 8 transferred (ave. 1.1 yrs. in college - only Burgess stayed two years)
    • 20 played four years (assuming MP1 sticks around)

    So, the lesson is simple: if you recruit four players, expect two of them to be around four years later.

    And that's the answer: recruit four players every year. But the past three years Duke has only recruited three (four in one year, if Seth Curry is counted), which is why there is only one player in the junior class.

    sagegrouse
    'I have all this stuff on a messy spreadsheet. So send me a PM if you would like to see.'

  3. #563
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Also

    Quote Originally Posted by kong123 View Post
    Ask Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins how they feel about Austin Rivers coming in next year. Ask Thorton how he feels about Duke recruiting another PG for next year. If there is a lockout, then you will have 3 PG's on the roster. Personally, I think this is how coaches will start to recruit at topnotch schools. With players leaving for the NBA so early, having an extra PG or SG in the stable is like money in the bank. Let the players work it out in practice, right?

    Cook is supposed to visit UNC very soon. He says UNC is his "dream school". I wouldn't be surprised to see Kabongo (sp?) end up at Duke next year and Cook or Rose at UNC.
    Should we ask Drew, Strickland, and Marshall how they feel?

  4. #564
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by kong123 View Post
    ... Cook is supposed to visit UNC very soon. He says UNC is his "dream school". I wouldn't be surprised to see Kabongo (sp?) end up at Duke next year and Cook or Rose at UNC.
    Nightmares are dreams.

    Quinn is such a good team player, I would hate for him to get caught in the "all about me" rush to the NBA that is unc under ol' roy. (of course, that promised land always seems farther away than ol' roy promises).

    I can see ol' roy telling Quinn that at unc he will start over the upperclassmen point guards and be ready for the league in two years, but at Duke he would sit behind upperclassmen and not be ready for the draft. (Basically, ol' roy is saying that Quinn is better than Marshall but not as good as Thornton).

    Frankly, I see Quinn's hesitation being more of a reflection of Tyler Thornton's development than in Kabongo's decommitment from Texas. In that light, this could be a very good development for Duke. Tyler and Quinn are similar in that they are leaders and facilitators, and winners, but not the kind of offensive talents that could be on the floor on the same time. If Tyler is proving to be the type of leader we can rely upon for the next four years, it gives us the leeway to bring in talent like Kabango, who can fit into any lineup, even if he is a short-timer.

    I still hope we get Quinn, he is the kind of player I would enjoy rooting for. I would dislike seeing him suffer at carolina.

  5. #565
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Quinn Cook adds UNC to list of favorites...still planning to sign in early period

    per Evans Daniels of Scout.com

  6. #566
    Tyler Thornton has been very impressive in these first 13 practices and one exhibition game.

    What was seen as a liability in the past (his outside shot) is now a strength.

  7. #567
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Charleston, SC

    Any other year...

    I was just getting used to the idea of Cook in a Duke uniform. Seems like a perfect 4 year player, a quality leader who can run the offense and will develop in to a dominating ACC player by the time he is a senior. I would hate for that to happen in Chapel Hill.

    I definitely agree with kong when he says that top notch schools will begin to recruit backup players. Rather than recruit as much top talent as possible and be screwed when they leave early you will need the Tyler Thornton's and Ryan Kelly's to give your program stability.

    Any other year I would prefer Cook(4 year) to Kabongo(1-2 years) but since we already have Curry and Thornton I say bring on the one and dones!

  8. #568
    Quote Originally Posted by CharlestonDevil View Post
    Rather than recruit as much top talent as possible and be screwed when they leave early you will need the Tyler Thornton's and Ryan Kelly's to give your program stability.
    Ryan Kelly was the 14th ranked recruit in the country (according to RSCI) when he was a high school senior. I think he was considered a "top talent."

  9. #569
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Ryan Kelly was the 14th ranked recruit in the country (according to RSCI) when he was a high school senior. I think he was considered a "top talent."
    Can I add that some still consider him a "top talent" and can't wait to see how he plays this year?

  10. #570
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    Can I add that some still consider him a "top talent" and can't wait to see how he plays this year?
    Absolutely, but in fairness to the original poster at this point I think most people consider Ryan to be a four year guy, rather than the type of talent that would leave after one or two years.

  11. #571
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Kong et al.:

    Lets look at the data (Duke only, 'cuz that's what I have): Duke has had 38 recruited players from the Elton Brand class (97-98) through the Miles Plumlee class (08-09), an average of 3.2 per class plus two in-transfers.

    Of these 38:

    • 10 left early for the NBA (ave. 2.3 yrs in college)
    • 8 transferred (ave. 1.1 yrs. in college - only Burgess stayed two years)
    • 20 played four years (assuming MP1 sticks around)

    So, the lesson is simple: if you recruit four players, expect two of them to be around four years later.

    And that's the answer: recruit four players every year. But the past three years Duke has only recruited three (four in one year, if Seth Curry is counted), which is why there is only one player in the junior class.

    sagegrouse
    'I have all this stuff on a messy spreadsheet. So send me a PM if you would like to see.'
    I wasn't trying to run anyone into the ground, just stating my opinion.

    AR and KI are probably one and done players. They are the only one and done players K has landed in the last few years, as far as I know. Is this a change in K's recruiting strategy or is this simply K taking advantage of special situations? Either way, I do not think it is bad deal. I think if you can have a few one and dones mixed in with a few long term student athletes, then it could work. Look at UNC since 2005. Marvin Williams and Brandon Wright were one and dones and Ed Davis went after his second year. UNC recovered from most of those early departures, we will see how we fair this year without Ed. If Ed would have comeback, UNC would be a bigger contender this year.

    Duke hasn't had as many early departures as UNC. This is the main reason for Duke's impressive consistency over the last decade. Its funny how losing GH and EW early from last years team, as well as a few seniors actually made your team a better team. I would have never guessed that, and I do not feel I am alone in that train of thought (if most of you are honest about it).

  12. #572
    It looks as though QC's heart is at UNC, eh? Once he receives an offer, I'm sure he'll accept. If no offer, I see him going to Duke.

    If QC attends UNC, chances of landing MK would definitely be higher.

    Another UNC/Duke battle.

  13. #573
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Portland, OR
    It's funny how we all thought that Cook coming to CTC was a boon to Duke's chances of landing him. Surely if he was in Cameron instead of at UCLA or Villanova, that could only mean good things for Duke. Now it is clear that he should have attended the fiasco in Chapel Hill to veer him away from Roy's three-ring circus. It's funny how things work out some times.

    I'm still optimistic that Quinn will choose Duke. I would LOVE to have him on board. I see him being part of a ton of wins in the next 4 years.

  14. #574
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Absolutely, but in fairness to the original poster at this point I think most people consider Ryan to be a four year guy, rather than the type of talent that would leave after one or two years.
    Aside from a few elite recruits each year who display the kind of freak athleticism that make the NBA scouts drool, I don't think it is possible to know who will be an early entry candidate versus who will be a 4 year prospect while kids are still in high school.

    There are plenty of kids who were barely top 50 who turn into stud players with high NBA potential almost the moment they step foot on campus. Similarly, there are kids who are Mickie Dees who end up looking like 4-year players as soon as they start practice.

    We hear about a lot of kids being eager to get to the NBA and/or likely one-and-done. I have seen enough of them stay in school a long time to know that -- so long as they have a team-first attitude -- there is no reason to shy away from a kid because he seems likely to be gone quickly.

    --Jason "JMO, but it sure seems K does not worry about this stuff when recruiting" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  15. #575
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Numbers

    Quote Originally Posted by kong123 View Post
    Duke hasn't had as many early departures as UNC. This is the main reason for Duke's impressive consistency over the last decade. Its funny how losing GH and EW early from last years team, as well as a few seniors actually made your team a better team. I would have never guessed that, and I do not feel I am alone in that train of thought (if most of you are honest about it).
    By saying over the last decade, you miss by one year Brand, Avery, and Maggette. Add that year in and I don't think the experiences of UNC and Duke as to players leaving early are all that different.

    On Henderson and Williams leaving last year, I don't think it's fair to say it made Duke better, just different. It worked out well, but it's entirely possible the team would have been even better with the two of them.

  16. #576
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    I know there's been a lot of talk about the potential NBA lockout affecting decisions to leave after next year, but is there any chance that an adjustment to the 1-year rule is in the cards? If I were to guess, I'd say the rule stays as is. The current system has worked out great for the owners, who get a year of free marketing and/or player evaluation. I could see the players being ok with any changes that lead to fewer rookies, but being unwilling to get rid of the rule because it means fewer roster spots for vets. The only body that might want change is the NCAA, but from a financial standpoint, I wouldn't be surprised if the status quo is the best they can realistically hope for. Without the rule, they'd be missing out on a lot of talent, which in my opinion has definitely boosted interest in the college game over the last few years. Changing it to a 2 year rule would help, but i doubt they have the pull to get the owners to agree to that.

  17. #577
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    Charleston, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Absolutely, but in fairness to the original poster at this point I think most people consider Ryan to be a four year guy, rather than the type of talent that would leave after one or two years.
    Thanks Kedsy, you're right. For the record I think Kelly has a very special skill set that should benefit our team greatly for his time at Duke. Hopefully his passing skills as a big man will help facilitate a high octane offense this year!

    But 2 quality players will already be dividing the PG minutes over the next 3 years, I think that plugging in Kabongo for a year or two would be much more beneficial than having Cook, Curry, and Thornton divide those minutes for the next 3-4 years.

    On the other hand, as airowe has noted before, Cook is good friends with many guys on the AAU circuit and I would hate for him to be recruiting guys to play with him at UNC for the next several years.

    What a terribly awesome situation to be in...

  18. #578

    Yeah...but...

    Quote Originally Posted by juise View Post
    It's funny how we all thought that Cook coming to CTC was a boon to Duke's chances of landing him. Surely if he was in Cameron instead of at UCLA or Villanova, that could only mean good things for Duke. Now it is clear that he should have attended the fiasco in Chapel Hill to veer him away from Roy's three-ring circus. It's funny how things work out some times.

    I'm still optimistic that Quinn will choose Duke. I would LOVE to have him on board. I see him being part of a ton of wins in the next 4 years.
    I'm a bit conflicted with this situation. I agree to an extent to what you're saying; and I would love to have Quinn as well. But if in fact his heart is with UNC, I personally would rather he go to UNC then choose Duke as a second choice because UNC chose to go in a different direction. Saying that, I know Duke has had a lot of success with recruits that had Duke as their second choice and UNC was their first choice (Christian and Bobby Hurley come to mind); but part of me wants us to pursue Kabongo over Cook because Kabongo appears to be more wide open (and may possibly be more geniunely interested in coming to Duke than Cook) and Cook seems to be more of a lean to UNC. I guess I just hate the concept of a recruit choosing us, but they really wanted to go to UNC, but since UNC didn't want them, they chose Duke instead. Again, I'm not saying this believ is rational; it's just my opinion and thoughts on the matter.

  19. #579
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    Quote Originally Posted by juise View Post
    It's funny how we all thought that Cook coming to CTC was a boon to Duke's chances of landing him. Surely if he was in Cameron instead of at UCLA or Villanova, that could only mean good things for Duke. Now it is clear that he should have attended the fiasco in Chapel Hill to veer him away from Roy's three-ring circus. It's funny how things work out some times.
    Is Cook a pumkin or more of a banana?

  20. #580
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    By saying over the last decade, you miss by one year Brand, Avery, and Maggette. Add that year in and I don't think the experiences of UNC and Duke as to players leaving early are all that different.

    On Henderson and Williams leaving last year, I don't think it's fair to say it made Duke better, just different. It worked out well, but it's entirely possible the team would have been even better with the two of them.
    In 2005, UNC lost Felton, McCants, May, and Williams. The next year we lost Brandon Wright. In 2009, we lost Ellington and Lawson. Last year we lost Davis to the NBA. Have I missed anyone? I know that we won NC's in 2005 and in 2009 and that may have contributed to players jumping to the NBA, but last years Duke team bucked that trend.

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