Kong et al.:
Lets look at the data (Duke only, 'cuz that's what I have): Duke has had 38 recruited players from the Elton Brand class (97-98) through the Miles Plumlee class (08-09), an average of 3.2 per class plus two in-transfers.
Of these 38:
- 10 left early for the NBA (ave. 2.3 yrs in college)
- 8 transferred (ave. 1.1 yrs. in college - only Burgess stayed two years)
- 20 played four years (assuming MP1 sticks around)
So, the lesson is simple: if you recruit four players, expect two of them to be around four years later.
And that's the answer:
recruit four players every year. But the past three years Duke has only recruited three (four in one year, if Seth Curry is counted), which is why there is only one player in the junior class.
sagegrouse
'I have all this stuff on a messy spreadsheet. So send me a PM if you would like to see.'