Quote Originally Posted by theAlaskanBear View Post
I understand that BA is overrated and that OPS is a more telling predictor of offensive value. My point was to show that he was a one trick pony. His HRs and walks boosts his OPS tremendously, as they should.

I think it is important, as someone else brought up, to compare him to players in his era. You can't look at all old guys he is passing in HRs as proof of his worthiness, lets also remember HRs were much rarer in those days. Any player before '69 had to contend with a higher mound, pitchers who will throw at you (hello, Bob Gibson), and larger ballparks

Basically, there is only one year (2002) where Thome led the league in anything. Except for a short 3-4 year span of excellence he was a very good player in the most HR prolific era of baseball. I just think he is a borderline Hall of Famer and that is ineptitude on the field (thats half the game, you know) should count against him. I am an NL guy, so I think the DH is an abomination.

Secondly, I HATE HATE HATE to hear you compare him to Stan Musial...that is wildly inaccurate, they are vastly different players and I can't see how you would think they are similar. Take a look at

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...01.shtml?redir

and check out his similar players and HOF Statistics toward the bottom of the page -- they apply different statistical tests to see how well he would fit into the Hall. I grant that is likely Thome will get in the Hall, and that some of his numbers are deserving...I just don't think he distinguished himself enough during his era.
I'm sorry to bother you with comparison's to Stan Musial, but I stand by what I said -- not that Thome was similar to Musial or even had the same career value as Musial, but that he had very similar offensive production.

He did.

Musial's career OBP with .419, his SLUG .559 and his OPS was .976. Thome's OBP was .404, his SLUB was .558 and his OPS was .961.

But Musial benefited from playing his career in a bandbox known as Sportsman Park, maybe THE greatest hitters park in baseball history (at least the greatest that was in use for any extended period), plus his era was almost an offensively friendly as Thome's (less power but higher averages). He got to play three full seasons during WWII, when competition was watered down.

The point is that Musial's career OPS-plus of 159 (the 15th best in baseball history) is very close to Thome's 147 (the the 17th best in baseball history).

I did not suggest that they were equal as a player. Musial played significantly longer and had much more defensive value (he was a great left field for many years and an above average first baseman). As a result, his WAR ranking of 127.8 (the 11th best in baseball history) is significantly better than Thome's.

But in terms of offensive production, they were very similar.

You bring up the danger of comparing eras, especially the current inflated home run totals. Well, I agree -- in very first post, I suggested that Thome was not a HOFer because of his mounting run total, but because of the breath of his offensive production -- his OBP and his slugging.

We use things such as OPS-plus and WAR to negate the difference in eras and the difference in ballparks. When somebody points to Thome's HR total and suggests that makes him a HOFer, you are right to bring up the era in which he played. But when we say Thome has the 17th best career OPS in baseball history, you can't come back and complain about his era ...

Is he a one trick pony?

I'd suggest that Thome has two tricks -- his ability to get on base (his OBP) and his slugging. Is that enough to make him a Hall of Famer?

Well,, I'd argue that a lot of guys have gotten in with less. I've never liked the lowest common denominator theory -- forget Jim Rice and Andre Dawson -- they're not nearly as weak as Chick Hafey, George Kelly or Rick Farrell. You could argue that Darrell Evans or Paul O'Neill were greater players than Chick Hafey (and you're be right). Dale Murphy and Don Mattingly were so much better than George Kelly that it's not funny.

But in Thome's case, we're talking -- in terms of career value -- about guys like Duke Snider, Tony Gwynn and Johnny Mize.

I think that makes him a worthy HOFer.