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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
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    Cary, NC

    Championship Game final play - revisited

    It's the middle of the summer and I'm ready for the season to start and tired of reading about LeBron - so here are a couple questions I'd like to pose regarding the final play of the NC game. Some of this might have already been discussed two months ago but gotten lost in the whirlwind of activity after our awesome win. I don't think I'll ever get tired of talking about this game, so here goes.


    WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO MISS A FREE THROW?

    A lot of talk has been made over whether it was the right decision for Z to intentionally miss his last free throw. Let's assume for the sake of this discussion that that decision has already been made. What is the best way to miss it? Obviously this is not something that players practice a lot. My opinion is that you should first identify which side of the rim you want the ball to go to - probably the side that does NOT have the guy who will be bringing the ball back up the court. This way they'll have to at least make one pass after getting the rebound. I think you loft the ball up high on that side and hope to get a weird bounce.

    The other option is to fire the ball at the rim really hard, as Z actually did. This gives you the element of surprise, and a chance at getting the ball back if Butler isn't paying attention or if the ball comes off hard. But the disadvantage is that it can bounce long right into the hands of the other team, allowing them to flow quickly towards the other basket (which is exactly what happened).

    A corollary to this question is whether to put your guys around the box to attempt a rebound, or pull them back so they're ready to defend. A lot of times when a team is up they won't put anyone around the box and I don't fully understand this. I guess you don't want to foul, but it seems like you should be able to keep at least one guy in there, not foul, and still slow the other team down.


    WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO HIT A HALF-COURT SHOT?

    The main question here is whether to go for a swish or go off the backboard. In theory it should increase your chances of hitting it if you go off the board, because the bounce will absorb some of the ball's forward energy and allow it to drop down at a sharper angle. In practice though, I feel like most of the half-court shots that I see are swishes. And if you're off to the side of the court rather facing the basket straight on (as was the case for Hayward) then the geometry of hitting off the board gets tricky.

    Man, I think I need to go watch the game again. For those who don't already know, it's available to watch online here.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Here's the problem with trying to go off the backboard: higher arc. When you have a higher arc, the path of the ball is much longer. That means a smaller margin of angular-error; that is, anything that's a little too far left or right will be magnified. I say keep it a swish, just high enough that you don't sacrifice too much on a smaller target (balls coming in at a lower angle means the target is an oval, with less forward-back error, versus a taller circle if dropped straight down).
    Trinity '09

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO MISS A FREE THROW?
    The only problem with the miss was that it bounced almost straight up, and thus fell right into the hands of the guy Butler wanted. Had the miss rebounded with a lower trajectory, it might have been tipped around a bit and cost Butler some time. And a longer rebound might not have ended up in Hayward's hands. I think in any scenario, you want the rebound to come off the rim lower and thus with a longer rebound. That increases the likelihood of it getting batted around a bit.

    I think the decision to put guys in the lane or not depends on how much time remains. If there's enough time to rebound and dribble up court for a long but reasonable shot, you put guys in the lane. If there is one or two seconds left, you probably don't put guys in the lane. Then, you get back to just needing the rebound to come longer, so the shooter can get a hand on it.

    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO HIT A HALF-COURT SHOT?
    Honestly, when moving at game speed, there's no "best way" to hit a half-court (or further) shot. If you're good enough to actually decide between trying to swish it or trying to bank it then you're good enough to just make it. The difference between those approaches is about a foot or so in shot distance, which is very small for a 50 foot shot attempt on the fly. The best you can do is just try to put it on line and hope for the best.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    May 2010
    First, I don't think you miss it.

    About the only shot a guy has in that situation is a 3 pointer and you loose if he hits the shot because the lead is only 2 points. Duke and Coach K should know this better than anyone, they were on the good end of that situation before.

    If you are going to miss I think you miss so the guy who you think is going to take the shot gets the rebound. He has to dribble to get into position. If someone else gets the rebound they can make a pass up court, thus cutting down the dribbling time and more time to get closer and take a better shot.

    If he makes the free throw they get to set up a defense, otherwise they are scrambling to cover the guy. A better chance to make sure the shooter gets the ball down on their defensive end and has to dribble farther and taking more time off the clock, thus a poorer shot.

    In all honestly, I think in a few years it will be talked about and it comes out that it was NOT planned for him to miss. I think Coach K is covering for Zo. But Coach is the type to take the criticism and not let Zo take it. Just a feeling after reading all his books, he wants to protect his players. It might have been a miss communication too. And Coach wouldn't let Zo take the blame for that.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by jjh1080 View Post
    In all honestly, I think in a few years it will be talked about and it comes out that it was NOT planned for him to miss. I think Coach K is covering for Zo.
    Definitely not true. Having been sitting courtside, and having spoken to cheerleaders who were even closer than I was in a very loud environment, I can tell you with 100% certainty that Coach K did, in fact, yell to Zoubs that he should miss that free throw from the sideline.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by jjh1080 View Post
    In all honestly, I think in a few years it will be talked about and it comes out that it was NOT planned for him to miss. I think Coach K is covering for Zo. But Coach is the type to take the criticism and not let Zo take it. Just a feeling after reading all his books, he wants to protect his players. It might have been a miss communication too. And Coach wouldn't let Zo take the blame for that.
    Even if I didn't know what PumpkinFunk just posted, I'd say it was pretty obvious Zoubek missed it on purpose. Just look at the trajectory of the shot - it wasn't even close to a normal Zoubek free throw. After hearing Coach K's rationale for the intentional miss, I think it was the right call. Having a set out of bound play with 3.6 seconds is much easier to score than on a scramble play. Obviously, you give up a point though. But as K said, he didn't want the game go to OT. Zoubek and Thomas had been playing the last 10 minutes with four fouls each and he felt the momentum and crowd were in Butler's favor. OT was NOT an option in his mind. With that fact, the best chance to WIN in regulation (tie = loss in Coach K's mind) is to miss the free throw, in my opinion. Really hard to have a half court shot go in (which was the best possible scenario for Butler), rather than pass it half court and get a decent look at the hoop like we've seen COUNTLESS times. Heck, with Laettner there was a lot less time than that and he got a show from just beyond the free throw line. Coach K said he knew they'd have a great out of bounds play lined up already since they have a great coach, so he wanted them to have to do it on a "broken up" play and then throw up a half court prayer even if it meant the potential for a loss in regulation. Because going to OT wasn't an option.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    I've got a question for you...


    if the shot goes in, do they call the moving screen that sent Kyle to the deck?

  8. #8

    Never gonna happen

    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    I've got a question for you...

    if the shot goes in, do they call the moving screen that sent Kyle to the deck?
    Being consistent with a similar event that occurred in Boozer's final Duke game (what foul?!?) my answer would be "no."

    k

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    I've got a question for you...


    if the shot goes in, do they call the moving screen that sent Kyle to the deck?
    Quote Originally Posted by Kimist View Post
    Being consistent with a similar event that occurred in Boozer's final Duke game (what foul?!?) my answer would be "no."

    k
    I'm not an expert by any means... but I tried to watch that block on Kyle as closely as I could. Was it really an illegal screen? If it was illegal, and the shot goes in, would video replays have been used, just like video replays are used to make sure a last second shot actually made it in time before the clock ran out... especially since the apparent foul occurred at the end of the game and will have decided the NC (unfortunately, unlike the foul on Boozer, which didn't "really" decide the NC).

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Baltimore
    Coach K said on Mike & Mike that he told Z to miss it on purpose because he knew that if this game went to OT, being away, losing momentum, that odds were stacked against us.

    In K we trust.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gep View Post
    I'm not an expert by any means... but I tried to watch that block on Kyle as closely as I could. Was it really an illegal screen? If it was illegal, and the shot goes in, would video replays have been used, just like video replays are used to make sure a last second shot actually made it in time before the clock ran out... especially since the apparent foul occurred at the end of the game and will have decided the NC (unfortunately, unlike the foul on Boozer, which didn't "really" decide the NC).
    After watching the play several times:

    Yes, pretty definitely it was an illegal screen thrown on Kyle; I have seen hockey cross checks that were more subtle.

    Replay---would have been just to confirm time was on the clock; officials wouldn't have made a foul call on contact that was not called during game time.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorns View Post
    Coach K said on Mike & Mike that he told Z to miss it on purpose because he knew that if this game went to OT, being away, losing momentum, that odds were stacked against us.

    In K we trust.
    Plus, in an interview after the game, he said he did not like the way the 2nd half was "administered."(paraphrase)

  13. #13
    I think it is truely a rare situation that you don't try and get points, especially in college basketball. I can understand it a little more in the pro's because if you make it, they can call timeout, draw up a play, and get the ball at half court. The college game is different since a timeout does not advance the ball to mid court.

    I can understand the points made here about how you miss it. But if Z tried to make it and missed it, Butler would have still had to advance the ball to mid court and throw up a desperation shot at the end. And who knows how a missed shot (that Z would have tried to make) might have bounced? It could have gone to Duke. Or there could have been a contested rebound that knocked some time off the clock, or a loose ball resutling in a scramble on the deck.

    I don't profess to be the expert or mean to second-guess a 4 time NC winner, but it seems to me that it is safer to take the point when the opportunity presents itself. But the important thing is that I am wearing a 2010 NC shirt that drives people around me crazy.

  14. #14
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    Nov 2007
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    Delaware
    Quote Originally Posted by Buckeye Devil View Post
    I think it is truely a rare situation that you don't try and get points, especially in college basketball. I can understand it a little more in the pro's because if you make it, they can call timeout, draw up a play, and get the ball at half court. The college game is different since a timeout does not advance the ball to mid court.

    I can understand the points made here about how you miss it. But if Z tried to make it and missed it, Butler would have still had to advance the ball to mid court and throw up a desperation shot at the end. And who knows how a missed shot (that Z would have tried to make) might have bounced? It could have gone to Duke. Or there could have been a contested rebound that knocked some time off the clock, or a loose ball resutling in a scramble on the deck.

    I don't profess to be the expert or mean to second-guess a 4 time NC winner, but it seems to me that it is safer to take the point when the opportunity presents itself. But the important thing is that I am wearing a 2010 NC shirt that drives people around me crazy.
    I didn't want to shift this back to what was discussed two months ago, but I will for a little bit and then get back to the question posed. If you just want to read about the stated topic, and I don't blame you if you do, skip to the second paragraph. With the ball out of bounds, Butler can throw the ball to half court before the clock even starts. With a miss, they have to catch the ball with no forward momentum, and then take it up the court. I think that most everyone will agree that Butler's chances of making a three are greater on an out of bounds play, than the one that happened on a miss. Just how much more likely it would be is what would determine if the right call was made. If you assume a 50/50 chance in OT, which Coach K did not, than it would have to be twice as likely that Butler makes a three on the out of bounds play as compared to the miss. I don't think that those are unreasonable assumptions to make. That Hayward's shot came so close is largely irrelevant. I believe that if he took that shot 20 times, that was probably his second best effort, and there's no guarantee that one goes in. With the ball out of bounds, I think its reasonable to say that they could have hit a shot 1 out of 10 times, which means that it would be entirely based off our OT chances. Coach K thought that he had worked his starters too much in regulation for our chances to be better than 50/50 in OT, so he had Z miss. I also think that its important to note that Coach K had about a minute to make this decision, not two months. As much as most of us don't like Clark Kellogg, he did profess that he thought it would better for Butler if Zoubek made the shot. The other scenario is a make and a foul, but with 3.6 seconds, that becomes dicey. If you weren't able to foul immediately on the catch, it's too late and you have to let the shot go because it gets close to where a shooting foul would come into play with so little time.

    Now that I got that off my chest, let me address the actual topic. The way I see it, there are two questions to ask: What is the theoretical best option, and what is the most practical to implement. If you had JJ at practice on the line, it would probably be best to hit the rim on the side opposite of Hayward and send a guard and Zoubek after the ball to trap it in the corner, leaving the other guard, Thomas and Singler to defend the pass and shot. I don't think it makes that much of a difference which guard you send in. I would personally send Scheyer, because he is bigger to help disrupt the pass, and Smith is quicker to get to the ball at half court. The problem with this is that JJ was gearing up for the NBA playoffs, and Zoubek, who was the worst shooter on the floor for Duke at the time, was at the line. Going for the side of the rim leaves a bigger risk. First, it is simply a smaller target, which while not likely, does bring an airball into play, which is the worst case scenario. Incidentally, this is also the reason to shoot the ball with a low trajectory. Even if Zoubek is guaranteed somehow not to airball, a small miss on the side of the rim could send the ball in the opposite of the intended direction, which would send it to Hayward's side of the court, with a guard in no-man's land who tried to cover the intended direction. A small miss on a straight shot would create a much smaller change in the intended direction. The other problem with a side rim shot is that if ball doesn't go in the right direction, and Duke isn't actively trying to rebound, it could make it to the sideline and go out of bounds without anyone touching it, leaving the clock in tact. Given that teams don't likely practice this scenario (they would practice it for if they were behind if at all), I think Duke made the right play. It still forced Hayward to catch the ball, stop, and dribble around Zoubek. Looking at the tape, Hayward spend a second and a half getting around Zoubek before he had open floor and was balanced. That is likely the difference between the shot coming from half-court and Hayward getting to just about the top of the key.

  15. #15
    What about have Zoubs make the 2nd shot (3pt lead), then foul on the inbounds play forcing a made free throw and then a missed free throw, an offensive rebound and then a made basket to win? I mean if we are playing the odds, what are the odds of that sequence working out for Butler?

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by oldnavy View Post
    What about have Zoubs make the 2nd shot (3pt lead), then foul on the inbounds play forcing a made free throw and then a missed free throw, an offensive rebound and then a made basket to win? I mean if we are playing the odds, what are the odds of that sequence working out for Butler?
    That's even worse. Unless you are playing truly terrible defense, it's always a mistake to foul when you're ahead. There was a tourney game this year (don't remember which) that proved the point very effectively.

  17. #17
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    Delaware
    Quote Originally Posted by oldnavy View Post
    What about have Zoubs make the 2nd shot (3pt lead), then foul on the inbounds play forcing a made free throw and then a missed free throw, an offensive rebound and then a made basket to win? I mean if we are playing the odds, what are the odds of that sequence working out for Butler?
    The problems with that scenario are 1) there's a good chance he misses anyway, and you will have you're defense playing back so you won't be able to challenge as well as an intentional miss. 2) If he does make it, there are 3.6 seconds left. You would have to foul as the ball is being caught or risk them getting a shot up for 3 free throws. 3) Even if you try and foul, there is no guarantee that you be able to get to them and foul or that the ref will call it. Remember that Memphis tried to foul in 08 but was unsuccessful in fouling at half court and then they had to let Chalmers take the three. This year, K-state tried to foul Xavier at the end of regulation, but the K-state player who was fouling got between the ref and the Xavier player and the ref never saw the foul. Because they were in that mindset, they ended up fouling on the shot.

    I think that at the end of the day, missing the shot improved Duke's chances of winning in regulation. Coach K thought that he played his starters would be tired in OT and Butler would have the momentum. If he thought they had a small chance in OT, you have to miss that FT.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    Lewisville, NC
    After working through the alternatives, I don't have any problem with K's strategy, or Duke's execution, for that matter.

    What made this close to a Butler miracle was:
    1. A favorable bounce on the missed free throw
    2. A cross-body block on Kyle, who had good position
    3. A good play by Hayward

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    After working through the alternatives, I don't have any problem with K's strategy, or Duke's execution, for that matter.

    What made this close to a Butler miracle was:
    1. A favorable bounce on the missed free throw
    2. A cross-body block on Kyle, who had good position
    3. A good play by Hayward
    I agree with this, all things went Butler's way except the shot did not go in. I just wanted to throw another scenario out for discussion. I have always been on the fence about the fouling when down three at the end of a game. It sounds good, but then again the practical application of it is not so simple. I would say that in rare situations (< 2 sec or so?) it may be a good idea.

    Bottom line like most end of game calls, if you win you are a hero, if you lose then you are a zero.

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