Carolina Next Year - - Will Graves Booted from Team (10/7)

[papa whiskey]

Hansbrough hit the ground traveling.

POTY

[4decadedukie]

Why even talk about UNC when we are clearly better? I'm more concerned about MSU and Purdue.

I believe we are better, too; however, I worry, especially this long before the season even starts, when we feel so overconfident and smug - bad karma. As I recall, a year ago at this time, a LOT of the Tarheel faithful were indicating that they would be clearly better than the Blue Devils in 2009-2010. We all know how that worked out.

[oldnavy]

It will be hard to say until we get a chance to see them play. Last year when they were in the early/weak part of the season I started to call them out, saying that they were in no way a top 5 or 10 team. Even though they were beating Garner Webb, Nevada and the like, you could tell that they were not clicking as a typical UNC team. So, I will hold off on any assessment until around mid-Dec. I suspect that they will be better, just because it would be hard to duplicate the disaster of last year even with Roy calling the shots

More interesting to me is how will the media respond via the preseason polls? Will they knee jerk the other way and leave them out or will they actually take a objective look and rank accordingly? If I had to guess right now, I would say 13-20 range.

[IBleedBlue]

From last season, we all know it takes a team to win the whole game. I truly believe Duke and UNC are on an equal pedestal if talent is the only factor. But experience and leadership make up the other half too. For Duke, we all know Nolan and Kyle have strong experience and are ready to act as leaders.
For UNC, only Larry Drew, Tyler Zeller and Will graves have some experience under their belt. But the biggest question mark is - who is ready to step in and be a leader? The answer to this question will have to wait until the season starts and then we will see if some one emerges.
You can have the best talent in the world, but without a leader and enough experience, you are in for a long season again. A prime example for such a debacle was Kentucky this past season.

[DevilHorns]

UNC returns:

Will Graves - Senior
Larry Drew - Junior
John Henson - Soph
Leslie Mcdonald - Soph
Dexter Strickland - Soph
Tyler Zeller - Junior
Justin Watts - Junior

UNC brings in:

Harrison Barnes
Reggie Bullock
Kendall Marshall
Justin Knox

The most senior member of that team (W. Graves) is a solid net negative in terms of leadership. He has poor work ethic, he has poor concentration (remember him high-fiving cheerleaders during the Duke-UNC game?), and is a poor role model. And its not like he has good intangibles on the court to redeem himself. Every minute I see Will Graves on the floor I gave good ole Roy a big thumbs up through my TV screen.

In terms of juniors, I think Zeller and Drew have the potential to improve next year with better potential around them. Zeller needs to stay out of injury trouble, or he's toast. He doesn't seem to be vocal, but I think he has leadership potential as he plays hard and shows heart. Drew has had to take a lot of flak for transfer rumors and for commandeering the Titanic that was UNC basketball last year. I honestly don't think he's as bad as many suspect. I think he may surprise, though I'm not expecting a Nolan Smith like jump for him.

In terms of Sophs, Henson has the highest pro-potential. If he puts on weight (like I hear he is doing) the guy may develop very well. However, he did show some lackluster effort last year many times during some of their troubling games. I hope bad habits die fast for him. Shoot, I hope thats the case for their whole team. I think Graves will just skate this year... but I think Zeller, Drew, and Henson have the potential to use last year has a positive and prove to the world that they are better than that.

In terms of new players, there is an incredible hype about Justin Knox. I'm not sure why. Maybe he's better than the Wears? Maybe not. Haven't seen him play at all during Alabama. His stats don't look that impressive.

I think Carolina fans are expecting a lot from Bullock and Marshall because of their high rankings on scout, rivals, etc and their unconscious fear that some of their guards from last year will still be ruling the court in terms of playing time. Hate to break it to you light blue guys but I wouldn't expect too much from these rookie guards next year.

However, they do have Harrison "Jesus" Barnes coming in. The savior. The multi-talented hybrid guard/forward who can guard your fastest player and your biggest (maybe hyperbole). He can do anything. But high school is high school. I know he has impressed at the CP3 camp, but thats mostly individual skills assessment. If he ends up being a big contributor on the team, can he provide a source of leadership and relentless effort? Who knows. It's a lot for a freshman to have to take control.

And that is the biggest question. We have Kyrie and Seth coming in for big impact next year. But, they aren't needed to provide leadership. They aren't needed to take control of the team's identity. I think we have the perfect situation for next year. Two very experienced Championship-class players providing the leadership, energy, and identity. And then a lot of other players that all want to grow and prove themselves. UNC does not have that. UNC right now has an identity that they want to forget forever. And the thing is their senior leadership will be weak next year again.

[davekay1971]

You can have the best talent in the world, but without a leader and enough experience, you are in for a long season again. A prime example for such a debacle was Kentucky this past season.

I sincerely hope UNC doesn't enjoy as good a season this year as KY-Jelly enjoyed last year...

As for the OP, how good will they be? We're going to be beat them like a red-headed stepchild taking it out on a rented mule. HB will be taking his never-been-unpacked bags to the NBA, smiling all the way and counting his $$$ in the bank with a 0-3 record against Duke (and he won't care one little bit).

***note: go with me on the assumption that we'll get the opportunity to spank their baby-blue-butts in the ACC tournament.

[moonpie23]

i urge caution on the predictions....let's not turn into the IC crew...

smack talk always has a way of equalling out...

[DreAllDay]

UNC's Downfalls:
1. Their guards are unproven, turnover the rock way too much, and for the most part aren't lethal threats from deep.
2. Lack of depth in the front court- Justin Knox wouldn't even see the floor if he were at Duke imo and Zeller is constantly hampered with injuries.
3. Like others have mentioned, I don't think Bullock and Marshall will make huge contributions this year, Marshall to me is overrated. He's not quick enough to guard Curry, Irving, or Smith.
4. Overall character, work ethic, and pride is still a question mark.

Upsides:
1. Harrison Barnes- He's exactly what the doctor ordered. There is a reason Roy has never recruited a kid as hard as he did Barnes. The kid has all the skillz, is a natural leader, is extremely hard working, and is just a straight up winner. However, he does have a lot of hype to live up to, but I would be more surprised if he didn't live up to it. I expect him to be an instant All ACC guy.
2. Henson is the other guy that scares me. The dude has big NBA upside with freakish length and is a shot blocking machine. His offensive game is smooth too, I expect Henson to have a Nolan Smith-like breakout year.
3. Roy Williams- hate him, respect him, whatever, the dude wins and he's hungrier than ever... He'll get them back in the hunt

In closing, Duke will be the superior team, but UNC will be the 2nd best ACC team imo. If UNC's guards are vastly improved, Barnes and Henson have NBA lottery worthy seasons, and McAdoo comes in early then UNC could easily be a top 10 team in the country.

[Kedsy]

The other top tier ACC teams are NC State with enough talent to compete if the Red Coat can coach them up to their potential and VA Tech thanks to a very favorable ACC unbalanced schedule that helps with respect to ACC standings but hurts with respect to NCAA bubble.

If VaTech is in the bubble discussions this year I'll be very surprised. They should be a solid top 25 team.

[BlueThru&Thru]

I believe we are better, too; however, I worry, especially this long before the season even starts, when we feel so overconfident and smug - bad karma. As I recall, a year ago at this time, a LOT of the Tarheel faithful were indicating that they would be clearly better than the Blue Devils in 2009-2010. We all know how that worked out.

Correctomundo, instant karma might get you

[DukieInBrasil]

I don't recall Hansbrough having all that big a learning curve as a freshman, and his 18.9/7.8 stat line supports my recollection. Some freshmen hit the ground running.

some Fr. are 20 when they get to campus, too. Hence much of the learning has already taken place, as well as the physical development.

[jipops]

UNC returns:

Will Graves - Senior
Larry Drew - Junior
John Henson - Soph
Leslie Mcdonald - Soph
Dexter Strickland - Soph
Tyler Zeller - Junior
Justin Watts - Junior

UNC brings in:

Harrison Barnes
Reggie Bullock
Kendall Marshall
Justin Knox

The most senior member of that team (W. Graves) is a solid net negative in terms of leadership. He has poor work ethic, he has poor concentration (remember him high-fiving cheerleaders during the Duke-UNC game?), and is a poor role model. And its not like he has good intangibles on the court to redeem himself. Every minute I see Will Graves on the floor I gave good ole Roy a big thumbs up through my TV screen.

In terms of juniors, I think Zeller and Drew have the potential to improve next year with better potential around them. Zeller needs to stay out of injury trouble, or he's toast. He doesn't seem to be vocal, but I think he has leadership potential as he plays hard and shows heart. Drew has had to take a lot of flak for transfer rumors and for commandeering the Titanic that was UNC basketball last year. I honestly don't think he's as bad as many suspect. I think he may surprise, though I'm not expecting a Nolan Smith like jump for him.

In terms of Sophs, Henson has the highest pro-potential. If he puts on weight (like I hear he is doing) the guy may develop very well. However, he did show some lackluster effort last year many times during some of their troubling games. I hope bad habits die fast for him. Shoot, I hope thats the case for their whole team. I think Graves will just skate this year... but I think Zeller, Drew, and Henson have the potential to use last year has a positive and prove to the world that they are better than that.

In terms of new players, there is an incredible hype about Justin Knox. I'm not sure why. Maybe he's better than the Wears? Maybe not. Haven't seen him play at all during Alabama. His stats don't look that impressive.

I think Carolina fans are expecting a lot from Bullock and Marshall because of their high rankings on scout, rivals, etc and their unconscious fear that some of their guards from last year will still be ruling the court in terms of playing time. Hate to break it to you light blue guys but I wouldn't expect too much from these rookie guards next year.

However, they do have Harrison "Jesus" Barnes coming in. The savior. The multi-talented hybrid guard/forward who can guard your fastest player and your biggest (maybe hyperbole). He can do anything. But high school is high school. I know he has impressed at the CP3 camp, but thats mostly individual skills assessment. If he ends up being a big contributor on the team, can he provide a source of leadership and relentless effort? Who knows. It's a lot for a freshman to have to take control.

And that is the biggest question. We have Kyrie and Seth coming in for big impact next year. But, they aren't needed to provide leadership. They aren't needed to take control of the team's identity. I think we have the perfect situation for next year. Two very experienced Championship-class players providing the leadership, energy, and identity. And then a lot of other players that all want to grow and prove themselves. UNC does not have that. UNC right now has an identity that they want to forget forever. And the thing is their senior leadership will be weak next year again.

Actually, I would say Kyrie has a lot to do with Duke's identity next season. K has already made reference to gearing the team's offense around Kyrie.

Clearly unc has some young and very exceptional talent. They could very well be the most talented team in the conference in terms of the collection of individual talents. I know this thread centers around the UNC team this upcoming season, but given that Graves is quite possibly their only departing player (I'm convinced Barnes is around for 2 years), 2011-2012 UNC could be scary good.

[Big Pappa]

In closing, Duke will be the superior team, but UNC will be the 2nd best ACC team imo. If UNC's guards are vastly improved, Barnes and Henson have NBA lottery worthy seasons, and McAdoo comes in early then UNC could easily be a top 10 team in the country.

I realize this is your opinion and you are certainly entitled to it, but without McAdoo I don't see them as the second-best team in the ACC, at least on paper.

If VaTech is in the bubble discussions this year I'll be very surprised. They should be a solid top 25 team.

I totally agree here and I see NC State and Va Tech challenging a couple of other teams for the 2-spot in the ACC.

[Dukeface88]

I realize this is your opinion and you are certainly entitled to it, but without McAdoo I don't see them as the second-best team in the ACC, at least on paper.



I totally agree here and I see NC State and Va Tech challenging a couple of other teams for the 2-spot in the ACC.

I agree with both of these, although I'd give VaTech the inside track for number 2. On the other hand, UNC with McAdoo is a different story. Knox doesn't seem impressive; he's basically a warm body to rebound and play defense. McAdoo gives them a legitimate offensive threat, depth if Zeller is injured and an alternative to Henson if he doesn't bulk up sufficiently. A great deal will depend on whether he's able to enroll early or not.

As for the rest of their new arrivals, I agree with the concensus that HB is likely to a beast (but won't be able to carry the team on his own) and that Marshall is not the solution to UNC's point woes. In a different system he might do well, but he's fundamentally a support player in a system that requires a star at his position. I think Bullock will be their Andre Dawkins - flashes of brilliance, but inconsitent. He won't have the luxury of being the eighth man though. Of their returning players, Zeller, Strickland and Henson showed potential; Graves, Drew, Watts and McDonald did not.

[ACCBBallFan]

I agree with both of these, although I'd give VaTech the inside track for number 2. On the other hand, UNC with McAdoo is a different story. Knox doesn't seem impressive; he's basically a warm body to rebound and play defense. McAdoo gives them a legitimate offensive threat, depth if Zeller is injured and an alternative to Henson if he doesn't bulk up sufficiently. A great deal will depend on whether he's able to enroll early or not.

As for the rest of their new arrivals, I agree with the concensus that HB is likely to a beast (but won't be able to carry the team on his own) and that Marshall is not the solution to UNC's point woes. In a different system he might do well, but he's fundamentally a support player in a system that requires a star at his position. I think Bullock will be their Andre Dawkins - flashes of brilliance, but inconsitent. He won't have the luxury of being the eighth man though. Of their returning players, Zeller, Strickland and Henson showed potential; Graves, Drew, Watts and McDonald did not.

I agree with you on Marshall being a good but not great PG like Drew, kind of the UNC equivalent of Greg Paulus.

Rather than again relying on unproven frosh (Barnes being an exception) and playing like an all star team with no chemistry or UNC system knowledge, even less than with Deon and Ginyard, Reggie may be closer to an 8th man like Dre than a starter if old Roy is willing to move Barnes to SG slot to leverage his CP3 camp learning, and start along side rather than in lieu of the gunner Graves.

PG be it Drew II, Strickland or Marshall all are decent none are final four caibre yet

SG - Barnes backed up by one of PGs perhaps Strickland. or Bullock, I am also not sold on MacDonald yet

WF - Graves, and Bullock/Barnes whoever is not at SG

PF - Henson / McAdoo

C - Zeller - Knox

Just as Duke will have some issues getting enough PT for Seth and Dre to back up Kyrie, Nolan and Kyle, with minimal PT for Thornton, (or for Kelly if Kyle plays mostly PF/WF2 paired with a Plumlee),

UNC has same issue with minimal PT for Watts and then having to decide who is #7 among Drew II, Marshall, Strickland, MacDonald, Barnes, Bullock, and Graves, a problem solved for Duke when Felix opted out.

I am old school but just as I place Thornton and Hairston as frosh having to displace a guy already in the system, I do the same with Reggie Bullock and Kendall Marshall, but think they may be able to edge out Leslie MacDonald, and Justin Watts to earn some more backup minutes.

People having Bullock starting or McAdoo in consideration for ACC ROY are making the same mistake as last year evaluating guys based on HS competition.

UNC lost a lot of experience with Ginyard and Thompson plus Ed Davis early entry even though hurt a lot last year, and have to rely on improvement of last year's guys plus Barnes, more than on guys like Bullock and Marshall and McAdoo who will be good over time, but it will take time.

Someone has to lead and IMO best options appear to be the upper classmen Graves, Zeller and Drew II, the savior Barnes and the improvement from highly touted under weight Henson, with a lot of inexperienced highly talented back ups.

[madscavenger]

One thing that almost everyone seems to have glossed over is DEFENSE. Carolina doesn't stand a chance of stopping our O. Its not just that Roy's teams emphasize offense over defense, its that this year the guys who play big minutes for them will have virtually no experience defending on the college level, either individually or as a team. To date, i haven't seen evidence that any of them can even play quality defense, regardless of experience. This is not only a huge deficiency in their game, but will almost certainly disrupt any rhythm they may develop on O. It'll affect them on both ends. And, of course, they'll unquestionably be lots of other opponents exploiting this. Roys got himself one h*ll of a challenge. If they can't find some way to deal with this problem (and right now i can't think of any), and get off to a disappointing start, you can't rule out the possibility that he "loses" his team once again as well.

Oh well.

[BD80]

One thing that almost everyone seems to have glossed over is DEFENSE. Carolina doesn't stand a chance of stopping our O. Its not just that Roy's teams emphasize offense over defense, its that this year the guys who play big minutes for them will have virtually no experience defending on the college level, either individually or as a team. To date, i haven't seen evidence that any of them can even play quality defense, regardless of experience. This is not only a huge deficiency in their game, but will almost certainly disrupt any rhythm they may develop on O. It'll affect them on both ends. ...

Spot on.

There hasn't been much "D" in the _ean _ome since Roy arrived.

Doubt we'll see much next year.

[jdj4duke]

i urge caution on the predictions....let's not turn into the IC crew...

smack talk always has a way of equalling out...

To turn into the IC crew, the thoughtful and detailed analysis in the thread here (granted, with no more than normal optimism that our noble warriors will prevail against the Heels) would have to be replaced with the following comments which have all been seen in some form or fashion on IC:
1- Singler is Skeletor; he -szzzzxxx
2- Nolan Smith is ugly
3- Singler is ugly
4- they have an easy schedule (and not just the NCAA's)
5- the refs will hand them the games no matter what
6- Wojo and Collins are zzzzzz
7- (Any Duke Player-ADP) is overrated
8- ADP is a flopper
9- ADP is ugly (again)
10- UNC would never have recruited ADP
11- ADP will never make it in the NBA
12- K is of course any number of things
13- Duke cannot win outside of New Jersey (or India which was my most recent favorite)
14- Dawkins will transfer
15- Curry is not ACC caliber; he szzzzx
16- Any and all Duke players cheat as do the coaches, the University, so everyone in the world hates them since they szzzx

I think that should cover most of it. No worries that even on the most opinionated and Dark Blue tinted day will this board ever come even within sniffing distance of IC.

[airowe]

The key word for unc is balance. It applies to any number of problems facing their team this year:

Can John Henson get a forkful of Will Graves' plate of food without having his hand bitten off?

Will Kendall Marshall's slow, plodding pace take a few mph off Larry Drew's 95 mph Wild Thingesque fastballs?

Will Harrison Barnes' and roy williams' egos collide to form one giant, Michael Jordan obsessed, Dean Smith's nose size head?

[roywhite]

The key word for unc is balance. It applies to any number of problems facing their team this year:

Can John Henson get a forkful of Will Graves' plate of food without having his hand bitten off?

Will Kendall Marshall's slow, plodding pace take a few mph off Larry Drew's 95 mph Wild Thingesque fastballs?

Will Harrison Barnes' and roy williams' egos collide to form one giant, Michael Jordan obsessed, Dean Smith's nose size head?

If a teammate gets the ball to HB within 25 feet of the basket, is there much chance HB will give it up?

Will Ole Roy throw players under the bus if things don't click right away?