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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by airowe View Post
    Seth will be a great player, but best on the team? A couple of likely Preseason All-Americans might have something to say about that. We're lucky to have some strong Senior leadership, what looks to be a somewhat deep rotation, excellent outside shooting, and a couple of very athletic post players. And a pretty good coach as well.
    I'm in agreement with this. I'm excited about Seth, but transfer hype tends to get overly inflated (remember the chatter about Dahntay?). He still has to prove he's more than a volume shooter... can he create for himself and others, finsh at the rim, see the floor well, pester guards mercilessly on defense? I think he'll be great for us eventually, but I don't think he'll be on Kyle and Nolan's level right away. It will be interesting to see if he creates some murmers about the starting PG spot early in the season though, if he comes out hot and Kyrie goes through an early frosh slump.

    I think Josh and Ryan are the two biggest wildcards. I honestly believe Ryan has the potential to be a 20+ ppg All-America type if he ever gets the kind of confidence playing at the college level as he did at the high school level. I mean yeah, he's a smart player and good passer, but dude could straight up ball in HS... we're talking crossing guards up so bad they'd fall over, catching alley oops and dunking on people, not to mention a very soft touch on an unblockable jump shot. He was nowhere close to it last year, but if he ever finds that comfort zone again, watch out.

    Josh is even more of an unknown since he's a frosh, but seems to be very polished offensively - seems like he could put up points in bunches. I wonder how well he'll be able to defend 3's and 4's, respectively? I see him having an Andre-of-last-year-like role.

    Speaking of Andre, he'll also be really interesting to watch. If he can get his body and handle in shape, he could add "slasher" to his game thanks to his athletic ability. I can't wait to see how his first real summer at Duke changes his game.

    As for the starters... we pretty much known what is hoped and expected from them, so I hope they're up to the task. Here's hoping the Plums can really take the mantle from LT and Z like their teammates are saying they will.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg_Newton View Post
    I'm in agreement with this. I'm excited about Seth, but transfer hype tends to get overly inflated (remember the chatter about Dahntay?).
    Well, Dahntay averaged 14 and 5 in his two years at Duke, so I'd say there was some substance behind that particular hype.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    Winston-Salem, NC
    I agree with most of what you said. Kudos to K and the '10 team which surprised most people and with which I think K did his best work to get the NC. I don't expect a repeat of last year for UNC and expect significant improvement. How much still remains to be seen.

  4. #24
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    Feb 2009
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    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Well, Dahntay averaged 14 and 5 in his two years at Duke, so I'd say there was some substance behind that particular hype.
    Dahntay was great, especially his senior year, but I remember hearing the same "best player on the floor at times" comments during his transfer year. Given that he averaged a respectable but not dominating 11ppg the following year, I'd say that probably wasn't entirely accurate.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Seth put up similar numbers next year, but it would definitely surprise me if he's the best player on the team.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg_Newton View Post
    Dahntay was great, especially his senior year, but I remember hearing the same "best player on the floor at times" comments during his transfer year. Given that he averaged a respectable but not dominating 11ppg the following year, I'd say that probably wasn't entirely accurate.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Seth put up similar numbers next year, but it would definitely surprise me if he's the best player on the team.
    I can't argue with that.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    Talent is easier to replace than chemistry. We have the former in spades; we have the leaders who know the equations for good chemistry, but it may take some trial and error before anyone knows how good this team can be, how resilient it can be, and how consistently it can be that good.
    Good points. I am also curious about the team's ability to close out opponents this year. This is one area that I think Jon was so important last year. He was such a great foul shooter and so solid with the ball that when we went to stall ball he helped ensure we kept the ball and if he was fouled, (Nolan and Kyle were also great end of game FT shooters) did a great job converting. This was one of the areas that I was most impressed with last year's team. I hope they can continue to finish well this year.
    “Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”

  7. #27
    To me no doubt the X Factors for next year will be Mason and Miles hands down. We all know what Nolan and Singler will being to the table. I have a feeling that Seth and Kyrie will def def live up to the hype... especially Kyrie. Andre will get be much more rounded (especially if he wants to get the same if not more PT)

    We all seen what the emergence of Zoubs did last year. if the Plumlees can stay outa foul trouble, rebound the ball and give us a lil reliable scoring down low Duke is gonna be really really tough to beat. i look as us having about the same losses as last year

    GO DUKE!

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by _TheFakeJWill_ View Post
    i look as us having about the same losses as last year
    We might have an interesting discussion in this thread on this point. If you'd said, "I expect the same number of wins and losses," I'd sure have to take that, as 40 games would surely mean another FF at the least, and probably an NC game. It would be crazy not to want our team to get to 40 games next year. [Could someone tell me whether it's possible to get to 40 games and not be in NC game?]

    But, just to play, uh, Devils' advocate [and maybe to adopt the persona of a crazy person], I'd also say I'll be surprised if Duke loses 5 games next season. I'm always surprised when we lose, so I'll be especially dumbfounded at every L next season, given our talent, enough experience, KI-wow, SC secret-X, and K-dude.

    Again I ask: 40 games = NC game appearance? Anyone? Anyone?

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by billyj View Post
    I think our expectations are way too high. We are probably thinking using our emotions not our logic. An average team in the 64 team bracket would have a 1.56% chance winning it all. You would be considered a huge favorite if you have a close to 20% to win it all. And even with a 13-15% chance you are still probably ranked #1 out of 64 teams.

    Here is my calculation, lets say if a team is a favorite in every match towards a championship. The chance of winning would be

    First round .99
    Second round .85
    Sweet 16 .73
    Elite eight .64
    Final four .6
    Champion .57


    The probability of this favored team to win it all would be 13.4%. So if a team has a 20% of winning it all, it has to be head and shoulder above all other teams. I don't know if that will be the case next year with a freshmen point guard. I'd be happy to think we have anywhere close to a 15% chance.
    Of course, these numbers are for an average team. Duke's odds will be better because we are always in the weakest regional, always have a bogus seed, and "get all the calls".

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by DukieBoy View Post
    Without knowing much of Kyrie's recruiting, is he a one-and-done type of player? Because a back-court of Kyrie, Seth, and Dre would be fun to watch.
    For all indications and what I have seen oh him, absolutely. He has great speed, can shoot the outside shot well, and is a terrific ball handler. He needs to work on his mid range game a bit, but that is really the only weakness with this kid. He will be able to get people involved and certainly has the ability to get Singler, Dre, Curry, Smith and the Plumlees involved in the offense to make it potentially downright explosive. They have him listed as #3 pick in the 2011 NBA Draft and is well known as one of the more talented players in this class.

    I think you will get your wish some of this season... I think that Coach K will go with this lineup in offensive situations and when we "go small" and ti would put a lot of pressure on opposing teams.

    Here are some video's of Kyrie:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6jOsvPw4qw

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRn2ocI8RAA

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G53NJbcqEMY
    Last edited by Osiagledknarf; 06-04-2010 at 09:12 PM.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    We might have an interesting discussion in this thread on this point. If you'd said, "I expect the same number of wins and losses," I'd sure have to take that, as 40 games would surely mean another FF at the least, and probably an NC game. It would be crazy not to want our team to get to 40 games next year. [Could someone tell me whether it's possible to get to 40 games and not be in NC game?]

    But, just to play, uh, Devils' advocate [and maybe to adopt the persona of a crazy person], I'd also say I'll be surprised if Duke loses 5 games next season. I'm always surprised when we lose, so I'll be especially dumbfounded at every L next season, given our talent, enough experience, KI-wow, SC secret-X, and K-dude.

    Again I ask: 40 games = NC game appearance? Anyone? Anyone?

    We could do it by playing poorly in the regular season and having to play 4 games in the ACC tourney. 31 regular season games, 4 in the ACC tourney and then losing in the National semifinals = 40 games. Possible, but never probable.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg_Newton View Post
    Dahntay was great, especially his senior year, but I remember hearing the same "best player on the floor at times" comments during his transfer year. Given that he averaged a respectable but not dominating 11ppg the following year, I'd say that probably wasn't entirely accurate.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that Dahntay led the team in PPG his senior year with 17ish. So it's hard to argue he was over-hyped.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    seth curry imo will be tantamount to our transition from a very good team to a great team

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by arnie is still king View Post
    We could do it by playing poorly in the regular season and having to play 4 games in the ACC tourney. 31 regular season games, 4 in the ACC tourney and then losing in the National semifinals = 40 games. Possible, but never probable.
    Thanks. Ok, so I see how it's mathematically possible yet highly unlikely.

    The reference to 31 reg season games -- Is there still in effect an NCAA rule that allows teams 27 games, plus participation in an early-season tourney with a 4-game maximum? Or are all teams simply allowed to schedule as they will, so long as they play 31 max? [I assume you know this stuff and won't have to research it. If by chance you'd have to research, forget it, I'll do the Google work myself.]

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Thanks. Ok, so I see how it's mathematically possible yet highly unlikely.

    The reference to 31 reg season games -- Is there still in effect an NCAA rule that allows teams 27 games, plus participation in an early-season tourney with a 4-game maximum? Or are all teams simply allowed to schedule as they will, so long as they play 31 max? [I assume you know this stuff and won't have to research it. If by chance you'd have to research, forget it, I'll do the Google work myself.]
    I don't know how the rules have changed regarding 31 games - it appears many teams play that many; so I don't think the 27 plus early season tourney 4-game max necessarily applies anymore.

  16. #36
    While Seth Curry has the potential to be outstanding and Andre Dawkins can be very good, Duke perimeter is already in great shape with Kyrie-Nolan-Kyle trio.

    To advance far into the NCAA tourney Duke instead needs the trio of two Plumlees and Ryan Kelly to be above average to very good, as Greg Newton post suggested for Kelly, not even that outstanding just very good, solid double digit rebounding or scoring from all three to complement an outstanding trio on the perimeter.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan View Post
    While Seth Curry has the potential to be outstanding and Andre Dawkins can be very good, Duke perimeter is already in great shape with Kyrie-Nolan-Kyle trio.

    To advance far into the NCAA tourney Duke instead needs the trio of two Plumlees and Ryan Kelly to be above average to very good, as Greg Newton post suggested for Kelly, not even that outstanding just very good, solid double digit rebounding or scoring from all three to complement an outstanding trio on the perimeter.
    I totally agree. We need the four-some of Miles, Mason, Ryan, and Josh to be good enough that we can have 2 of them on the floor most all of the time. If they play well enough to allow similar rotations as we saw this past year, and allow us to only shift Kyle to the 4 when we want to, on our terms, rather than being forced to out of necessity, we will be a strong contender for the title.

    Another thing that would do is give K a full arsenal of options on both offense and defense to the point where it would almost be ridiculous how could this team could be.

    All I want for Christmas is for our 4 post players to be good enough to be impact players no matter who the competition is. If that happens, everything else will take care of itself.

    "[T]he tarnished Tar Heels that bear little resemblance to the revered program built by Dean Smith."- Ashville Times
    "UNC and the NCAA are trying to conceal that the fraud was specifically designed to pad the transcripts of varsity athletes" - Bloomberg

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Dukes needs the Plumlees to be as effective overall as LT and Zoubs. They already were on offense, but on defense there was a huge gap, so much so that in the NC game they got relatively little playing time.
    You know Sage, I felt the exact same way watching the game live that night. However, a couple Friday nights ago, I was able to sit down by myself without any distractions and watch it again. This time I came away feeling that both Miles and Mason actually played well that night and played more minutes than I first thought. Each had a couple of really good plays and limited their mistakes.

    I screamed at Miles over the botched alley-oop in the first half watching it live, but on the replay I was able to see that he got hammered by Howard which caused the bobble.

    It makes me feel even better about both Miles and Mason going into the new season. Miles needs to get stronger with his hands to cut down on the bobbles, drops, mishandles, etc, and get better at being able to play good positional defense without sacrificing his shot-blocking ability and vice-versa. Last year early he was great at shotblocking (Case in point UConn game) but not so great at position defense. In early January he got much better at being in the right position, but all of a sudden forgot how to block shots. He just needs to combine the two skills and be consistent at it.

    Mason just needs to mature on both ends. All of the talent in the world is in this kid, but he has to use that talent more wisely and cut down on mistakes. Like his brother, he also needs to get better with position defense while also blocking shots. One final area for Mason is he has to hustle more. Especially getting back on defense. He says that watching Lance and Zoubs showed him that he has to get better at playing as hard as possible at all time. If he commits to doing just that he can be a beast.

    Only 4 months and 10 days until practice starts!! (But before that happens we got some Football to kick butt in! Go Cut! and Go Duke!)

    "[T]he tarnished Tar Heels that bear little resemblance to the revered program built by Dean Smith."- Ashville Times
    "UNC and the NCAA are trying to conceal that the fraud was specifically designed to pad the transcripts of varsity athletes" - Bloomberg

  19. #39
    I know many are expecting a lot more from the Plumlees, but I think given their foul tendencies, it is reasonable to assume they each play 20-25 MPG effectively, for a total of 45 minutes, perhaps another 10 from Kyle at PF leaving 25 MPG for Ryan and Josh to share.

    Again many are expecting double digit minutes from Josh and not much from Ryan while I think the reverse is true. I would say 15 MPG for Kelly is much too low and the other 10 MPG from Josh is on the high side.

    Josh will be fine over his four year career at Duke but Kelly has higher HS rankings, an extra year in the Duke system, is taller, and will have progressed from the academic acknowledgement that he has to get stronger and in better condition, to putting that into practice over the summer.

    Like the Plumlees he will have benefited from Lance's and Zoubs work ethic example.

    Last year he has the pre-season flu/mono like weight loss symptoms that got him off to a slow start plus was not as good a fit with Jon Scheyer and Brian Zoubek as he will be with the quicker Kyrie Irving and a Plumlee.

    Anything Duke gets out of Josh Hariston this year in games beyond what they got out of Ryan Kelly last year or Miles the year before will be a bonus.

    Practice is another story. Without Felix, it is pretty much up to Josh, Ryan or a Plumlee to give Kyle the defensive challenge from a big in practice, whereas Andre provides a quicker but much smaller player to defend him.

    Since there are only 4 bigs, Kyle gets that challenge either by playing some PF in practice or by the sophomore Todd Zafirovski logging some practice time as a forward/center, while Josh or Ryan defends Singler at WF.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by bluedevil2012 View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that Dahntay led the team in PPG his senior year with 17ish. So it's hard to argue he was over-hyped.
    Well, if you consider that people were murmuring the same "best player on the floor at times" things during his transfer year, it's not that hard. Dahntay averaged 11ppg in 2001-02, the year following his transfer year - when the practice floor included Jason Williams, Shane Battier, Carlos Boozer, Nates James and Chris Duhon. I doubt he was even close to the best player that year, especially given he was only the 4th or 5th best player the next year.

    It's not hard to imagine why practice reports of transfers get exaggerated - practice/pickup is their only outlet to play at all, they're never beat up from the wear and tear the season, and they're often the "star" player on the second team in practice. Plus, it makes for a sexy rumor.

    My point was that, like Dahntay in his junior year, we probably shouldn't be expecting Seth to be one of our all-around best players.

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