Josh Hairston

[Daniel tosh]

This guy really intrigues me,I just want to know what you guys think he will bring to our team this year.Does anyone know who you could compare his game too?All I really know about him is,that he is a faceup 4 man that can also score inside.Thanks for your input.

[Saratoga2]

This guy really intrigues me,I just want to know what you guys think he will bring to our team this year.Does anyone know who you could compare his game too?All I really know about him is,that he is a faceup 4 man that can also score inside.Thanks for your input.

He is kind of slightly built at this time, kind of like Lance. He seems to have very good court awareness, passes well and can hit a square up jumper. His rebounding is good. He has quick enough feet to be a good defender, but has some work to do along that line. I see him as playing primarily the 4 this year as a sub and getting 15 minutes a game. This kid will be a very solid player and should develop well this year.

[CrazieDUMB]

I feel like between Seth and Kyrie this guy has kind of been lost in the shuffle, at least not a lot of people are talking about him. However, he will have to get some solid minutes, as our big rotation only has three other players (four if Singler spends time at the 4). He and Ryan will be the primary backups, and when they come in a Plumlee will switch to the 5.

From what I hear he's a pretty good face-up scorer and can drive well from the outside. He plays "with great energy on both ends of the floor" (ESPN), which is a must for breaking into a K rotation. He can also run the floor and is great in transition, which should work well with our up-tempo pace next year. He's also good at grabbing boards and immediately starting the break, with good outlet passing skills but can also finish above the rim.

Apparently he also has a frame that's "suited for adding muscle", whatever that means. He's a fierce player who plays with strength, so if K needs him to be a strong four or even an undersized five, I can see him putting in the work to do so. He already has the good footwork habits with his back to the basket to complement his high post forte.

As far as weaknesses, apparantly he tends to get frustrated, and his defense suffers when he tries too hard not to foul. He will have to reign that in. Some say his weakness is his defensive prowess, but that may be because he's such a good scorer that's never been his priority. "Ironically, his true potential may lie on the defensive end of the floor... With the size to guard the post and the lateral quickness/length to keep people in front of him on the perimeter he has the ability to guard multiple positions."

So, kinda like Lance.

[airowe]

He is kind of slightly built at this time, kind of like Lance. He seems to have very good court awareness, passes well and can hit a square up jumper. His rebounding is good. He has quick enough feet to be a good defender, but has some work to do along that line. I see him as playing primarily the 4 this year as a sub and getting 15 minutes a game. This kid will be a very solid player and should develop well this year.

I think 15 mpg might be a bit high, but Josh can play both the 3 and the 4, giving him more chances to earn minutes. He's been working on his handle and outside shot a lot this year at Montrose and has put on some weight to grow to 220-225 lbs. Coach k wants him to be at around 230 and to play a Battier/Singler type role. I expect him to play more as a PF, but he certainly has the footspeed and quickness to play the 3 if called upon.

[gumbomoop]

Josh seems a fine prospect, but probably not a major impact player his frosh year. Here's my reasoning: the MPs are the 2 players capable of being the 5. If one assumes, as do I, that fast pace and foul problems will limit each of MPs to 25-28 mpg, that means that MP2 will play the 4 perhaps 12-15 mpg.

So who else will play the 4 for those other 25-28 mpg? RK, JH, and KS. I have inferred from other threads that some posters believe KS will play a good bit at the 4. I can see, but don't yet buy, that view; I think that will happen only if both RK and JH are found totally wanting at the 4. My bet is on RK to break out and to get more mpg than JH. It just seems likely that RK has benefited from a year in K's system; further, RK has multiple skills, which he was unable to showcase last season as he was behind the other 4 Bigs.

Maybe JH is more skilled than RK; not much evidence yet on either player. All I can use to judge is seeing RK show promise last year, and a single viewing of JH in a televised HS game. I could see JH is going to be a good college player, but in that single game, I thought his intuitive feel for defense is a bit lacking. He was regularly left lurching at an opponent who ball-faked him and got by him to the basket.

My semi-educated guess is that RK has an extra skill or 2 over JH right now. RK is going to be a good passer into the post. He can shoot, block shots, and, although I suspect this is a minority viewpoint, rebound just fine. I think JH is developing a good outside shot and may become a solid rebounder, too. But I doubt he's ready defensively, I don't think he's anywhere near the passer RK is, and he's a frosh.

JH will become a very good player, in time. I'll be surprised if his time is this year, on a loaded team. I'd guess he'll get 7-8 mpg early in season, but will play only spot minutes late season. But if he's a surprisingly strong defender and rebounder, he'll take away some of RK's 15-18 mpg.

[chrisheery]

I stood next to Josh at the Carolina at Duke game and he is noticably "thicker" than Lance was as a freshman, and maybe even is now. That is not to say he is stronger, just that he has more natural size. I watched him play a couple games on TV, and he is pretty quick for a guy with his size. He is not a great leaper, but he can definitely shoot and served as his team's primary ball-handler on more than a couple occasions each game when their PG needed a break and the backup PG was being hounded. He is much much more skilled than I thought he would be. If he can convert his size to muscle-size, he can play the 4 pretty easily. I think if he does that, though, he can play step out 4 or in a large lineup 3. I doubt he will be able to carry his game directly into college speed right away, but I think he will be a very good player for us before his career is over. His style of play kinda reminds me of Roshown McCleod, but his body shape is a bit more like a not-quite so jacked Boozer (but with the potential to gain weight and muscle to be closer to Boozer due to his frame).

* Addition: I think Josh is very skilled, but I don't think he is more skilled than RK. Ryan Kelly is an extremely skilled big man. Just needs the meat to go with the skill.

[Cockabeau]

A more skilled,less athletic version of Lance

[chrisheery]

A more skilled,less athletic version of Lance

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.

[COYS]

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.

If you limit athletic ability to jumping ability, Lance may not have been super-athletic, but he is extremely quick for a guy his size and has truly impressive lateral quickness. He didn't really have the ball-handling skills to put his quickness to use on offense, where people generally judge athletic ability, but he was ferocious on defense. Anyone remember him locking down the ridiculously quick Ish Smith from Wake in the final critical five minutes of that epic game in Cameron in 2009? Lance at 6-8 was not only hanging with, but shutting down one of the quickest point guards in college basketball. His quickness allowed him to rotate on defense, drawing charges etc. He didn't block shots 12 feet above the ground nor did he throw down too many monster slams, but Lance definitely had exceptional athleticism.

[gumbomoop]

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.

I agree with this. As I said in earlier post, I've seen JH but a single time. We've all seen LT many times. JH should be a much better player on O than LT, as he has better handle, better shot, including 3-pt range, better footwork. But on D, wow, LT determined [and I do mean determined] by his junior year that his role would be as a stopper on D. If JH combines solid skills on O with LT-like [or anywhere close] determination on D, we are in for a treat.

[mr. synellinden]

Not sure why people still think Lance is super-athletic. He was a tremendous competitor and leader, but when did he ever do anything that made you say "wow?" Josh may be less athletic, but only slightly.

Well, I agree that he is not SUPER athletic. But I did say wow or scream something akin to that after his rebound/putback and the foul late in the second half against Baylor.

[chrisheery]

If you limit athletic ability to jumping ability, Lance may not have been super-athletic, but he is extremely quick for a guy his size and has truly impressive lateral quickness. He didn't really have the ball-handling skills to put his quickness to use on offense, where people generally judge athletic ability, but he was ferocious on defense. Anyone remember him locking down the ridiculously quick Ish Smith from Wake in the final critical five minutes of that epic game in Cameron in 2009? Lance at 6-8 was not only hanging with, but shutting down one of the quickest point guards in college basketball. His quickness allowed him to rotate on defense, drawing charges etc. He didn't block shots 12 feet above the ground nor did he throw down too many monster slams, but Lance definitely had exceptional athleticism.

Fair enough. I guess we disagree a little on his lateral quickness, but he was athletic in that way. I never thought his lateral quickness was off the charts, I just thought was willing to do the work other guys his size weren't. I know he stopped Ish Smith, but I don't think it was all quickness that did it. I think his length bothered Smith too.

Anyway, Josh has similar quickness from the couple times I have seen him play. What I don't know is whether he can harness it like Lance did and combine it with an absolute will to win like Lance did. Those things are required to play the kind of incredible defense Lance did for us. Defense requires a baseline level of athleticism, but after that, it is all desire, awareness and positioning.

[chrisheery]

Well, I agree that he is not SUPER athletic. But I did say wow or scream something akin to that after his rebound/putback and the foul late in the second half against Baylor.

I did, but it was more in surprise that it was Lance that did it. I had watched him for 4 years and he never made plays like that. Also, to be fair, he barely got it down. Great play, no doubt, but remarkable athleticism? Tough to point to one play in a 4 year career to say that he is an amazing atlete.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I did, but it was more in surprise that it was Lance that did it. I had watched him for 4 years and he never made plays like that. Also, to be fair, he barely got it down. Great play, no doubt, but remarkable athleticism? Tough to point to one play in a 4 year career to say that he is an amazing atlete.

Completely agree. That play came out of left field. It was very non-Lance-esque. Lance was a great defender and great leader, but great athlete doesn't fit Lance at all.

[Kedsy]

Well, if you remember a story from WRAL not too long ago (http://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke/story/7629898/), Josh views himself as the successor to Lance:

Incoming freshman Joshua Hairston, a 6-foot-8 215 pound forward from Rockville, Maryland, hopes to make that loss a little less noticeable. He says he can fit into a role similar to Thomas'.

"I can actually. A lot of people have been comparing me to Lance and say I'll be doing a lot of the same things he was doing," Hairston told The Insiders Wednesday on 620 The Buzz. "That's just one thing I tried to watch. I tried to watch what Lance did, tried to watch what Kyle did. Coach [Krzyzewski] says he kind of visualizes me doing that same thing. I just want to start learning early, and just watch them and see what they do."

And he says Coach K views him the same way. So in high school, defensive intensity may have been a weakness, but at least he says that's what he's working on now.

Josh seems a fine prospect, but probably not a major impact player his frosh year. Here's my reasoning: the MPs are the 2 players capable of being the 5. If one assumes, as do I, that fast pace and foul problems will limit each of MPs to 25-28 mpg, that means that MP2 will play the 4 perhaps 12-15 mpg.

* * *

JH will become a very good player, in time. I'll be surprised if his time is this year, on a loaded team. I'd guess he'll get 7-8 mpg early in season, but will play only spot minutes late season. But if he's a surprisingly strong defender and rebounder, he'll take away some of RK's 15-18 mpg.

Contrary to thinking that Miles and Mason will be "limited" to 25 to 28 mpg, I think your minute projection for the MPs is on the high side. For comparison, look at the following minutes played by Duke big men:

Carlos Boozer, FR, 23.7
Carlos Boozer, SO, 25.6
Carlos Boozer, JR, 28.4

Shelden Williams, FR, 19.2
Shelden Williams, SO, 26.0

Elton Brand, FR, 23.5
Elton Brand, SO, 29.3

As good as Mason and Miles are, they aren't close to Boozer, Williams, or Brand (even when those guys were freshmen). And those guys barely got into the range you project for the MPs (at least until Shelden's junior and senior years, but those teams each only had two big men who could play, so Shelden's big minutes were out of necessity).

Personally, I think Miles and Mason will be looking at 20 to 23 minutes a game. Maybe a little more for Mason and a little less for Miles, but basically I expect them to combine for 40 to 45 mpg. So even if Kyle plays 10 mpg at the "4" (which I think may be a tad high but isn't an unreasonable estimate) there's still a good 25 to 30 minutes for Ryan and Josh to split. If Ryan takes 17 or 18 of those minutes, it leaves 8 to 12 for Josh pretty much all year.

Now, of course if Josh fails to play good defense, then I think you're right and his minutes will drop off. But since that's what he's already working on, I have hopes that he'll be able to maintain his 8 to 12 for most of the season.

As far as Ryan goes, I would be surprised if he gets as few as 15 minutes a game. I would not be surprised if he ends up with more minutes than Miles. Again it depends on if he can get his defense up to snuff but if he does I could see him getting 20+ minutes and Miles getting 17 or 18. Thus if Josh eats into anybody's minutes, I would see him taking Miles's minutes away, rather than Ryan's. Although obviously it's all guesswork at this point. If Miles takes a quantum leap forward like he did between his freshman and sophomore years, then he'll keep his minutes up all year. The good news is all these suppositions are based on the fact that we have an awful lot of good players on next year's roster.

[sagegrouse]

Contrary to thinking that Miles and Mason will be "limited" to 25 to 28 mpg, I think your minute projection for the MPs is on the high side. For comparison, look at the following minutes played by Duke big men:

Carlos Boozer, FR, 23.7
Carlos Boozer, SO, 25.6
Carlos Boozer, JR, 28.4

Shelden Williams, FR, 19.2
Shelden Williams, SO, 26.0

Elton Brand, FR, 23.5
Elton Brand, SO, 29.3

As good as Mason and Miles are, they aren't close to Boozer, Williams, or Brand (even when those guys were freshmen). And those guys barely got into the range you project for the MPs (at least until Shelden's junior and senior years, but those teams each only had two big men who could play, so Shelden's big minutes were out of necessity).

Just a darn minute! Brand, Boozer, and Shelden got to play when the cupboard was bare. They may have played more than MP1 and MP2 in comparable circumstances, but don't be too sure about it!

• The coast was clear for Shelden when Boozer left for the NBA after the 2002 season and the only returning big men were Sanders and Horvath.
  
• The coast was clear for Boozer when Elton left for the NBA after the 1999 seaon and there were NO returning big men, unless you count Matt Christensen, who had been on a Mormon mission for two years.
  
• And when Elton arrived, the only returning big men were Domazalski and McLeod.

sagegrouse
'Gee. The accent seems to be on the second syllable of my name in this post'

[jjh1080]

From what I remember, from Lance's early years, the game was faster and more physical that he could handle or thought it would be. Not sure which it was but his high school playing did not translate into his college playing.

That is why, when talking about a freshman, one must always consider what they have done to date has been against high school players. Most of the time Josh might have been one of the biggest guys on the court and next year he might be the average size. For most freshman the game is totally, totally different at the college level, no one knows how they will handle the next level. Some freshman are ready for it and some are not.

Case in point, JJ was one of the best college players but in the NBA it has taken a while for him to come around. This year might have been his best so far but most people would have thought by now he would have had a much better NBA career. The game is different and no one really knows how they will adjust to it at the next level.

[Olympic Fan]

Not to take this thread off topic, but since we were talking about Lance and his athleticsm ... I wanted to add my 3 cents worth:

The vague term athleticism includes a lot of things ... what about hand-eye coordination? Is that an athletic skill? Just read where scientists at Columbia University tested Babe Ruth in 1921 and found that he had the greatest hand-eye coordination and the best controlled muscle response (timing) of anyone they had never tested. Does that mean his athleticism was off-the-charts?

Rating Lance in the areas I would rate as athletic skills (judged against other 6-8 college basketball players, not the general population):

Strength -- below average (he was stronger than me, John Henson and probably you, but weaker than 90 percent of the 6-8 NCAA Div 1 players)
Jumping ability (both maximum height and repeat jump ability): Average
Hand-eye coordination: below average (based on shooting and ballhandling skills)
Lateral quickness: Very much above average (again, compared to other 6-8 players). If it were just length that bothered Ish Smith (the quickest player in the ACC last year), then a lot of 6-8 players would have been out there playing him ... it was the combination of length and quickness.
Flat-out speed: Very, VERY much above average ... did you ever watch Lance at the point of the fullcourt press trap the ball in the corner under the opponents' basket, then hustle back to get his man under the basket when the opponent was able pass out of the trap and push the ball up? That was a wow factor and Lance did it time and time again.

I need to see more of Josh Hairston to compare his skill set. I'm sure he's stronger than Lance (at least than Lance was early in his career) and will get stronger under the tuteledge of Will Stephens. His hand-eye skills seem better. I don't know about quickness and speed.

I'm sure there are a differences -- but in the end Lance did a great job of maximizing his strengths and hiding his weaknesses and I feel sure they'll do the same with Josh.

I'm fairly confident he'll be a major contributor down the road. As for next year? I guess I'd guess that he'll play more than Ryan did last year and less than Mason did. But that's just a guess.

[Kedsy]

Just a darn minute! Brand, Boozer, and Shelden got to play when the cupboard was bare. They may have played more than MP1 and MP2 in comparable circumstances, but don't be too sure about it!

• The coast was clear for Shelden when Boozer left for the NBA after the 2002 season and the only returning big men were Sanders and Horvath.
  
• The coast was clear for Boozer when Elton left for the NBA after the 1999 seaon and there were NO returning big men, unless you count Matt Christensen, who had been on a Mormon mission for two years.
  
• And when Elton arrived, the only returning big men were Domazalski and McLeod.

sagegrouse
'Gee. The accent seems to be on the second syllable of my name in this post'

Well, that's my point. If I understand what you're saying then you seem to agree with me. If those guys in those circumstances only played low- to mid-twenties minutes, then Miles and Mason will probably not be playing as much as 25 to 28.

[Kedsy]

The vague term athleticism includes a lot of things ... what about hand-eye coordination? Is that an athletic skill? Just read where scientists at Columbia University tested Babe Ruth in 1921 and found that he had the greatest hand-eye coordination and the best controlled muscle response (timing) of anyone they had never tested. Does that mean his athleticism was off-the-charts?

You don't think Babe Ruth was athletic? Wow. I obviously never saw him play, but from reading about him and looking at his stats I think he was amazingly athletic. He apparently didn't take care of his body very well, but that doesn't make him less athletic.