NBA Free Agency 2010

[MisterRoddy]

I can only presume that his preference for it is that it would allow him to get a bigger contract. If he signs as a free agent, his options are max with new team, or max+ with Toronto. If he goes to a new team via sign and trade, he gets the max+ with the new team.

While we don't know what goes on in this guys head, don't you think winning is just as important to this guy. If he were to just sign with say, Miami. Done deal. If he wanted more money and asked for a sign-and-trade to Miami, thats taking 1 or 2 good players from Miami instead of him just signing with the Heat and teaming up with them. If he was younger like Lebron, I could see him leaning towards the most money, but Bosh is entering his prime and many smart players prioritize winning at this stage in their careers.

Not saying you are wrong, but I don't think we can accurately state what Chris Bosh prefers at this point.

[Indoor66]

While we don't know what goes on in this guys head, don't you think winning is just as important to this guy. If he were to just sign with say, Miami. Done deal. If he wanted more money and asked for a sign-and-trade to Miami, thats taking 1 or 2 good players from Miami instead of him just signing with the Heat and teaming up with them. If he was younger like Lebron, I could see him leaning towards the most money, but Bosh is entering his prime and many smart players prioritize winning at this stage in their careers.

Not saying you are wrong, but I don't think we can accurately state what Chris Bosh prefers at this point.

I understand the point, but the difference between signing and a sign and trade is substantial - like $30 million or so more if he goes the sign and trade route. Winning is great, but this is a business decision as well.

[CDu]

I understand the point, but the difference between signing and a sign and trade is substantial - like $30 million or so more if he goes the sign and trade route. Winning is great, but this is a business decision as well.

Well (and I'm sure you know this already - just clarifying for those who might not know), it's not definitely a ~$30+ million difference. That estimate is comparing apples (or 6-year deals) to oranges (7-year deals). The value of a sign-and-trade (or re-signing with the same team) is that the player can get a bit higher raise each year and can get an extra year on the deal. So a lot of the discussion about the $30 million difference is due to the extra year. There's a chance that the player makes up a lot of that difference in money, and a chance that he doesn't. So really, it's a difference of ~$30 million in guaranteed money.

But you're dead on that there is definitely a tradeoff, and it's not an insignificant tradeoff. Ideally of course, Bosh would like to make the max+ deal AND go to a team that is set to contend. But the sign and trade isn't likely to work out so neatly, and he isn't going to contend in Toronto. So it's a matter of how much his new team would have to give up in a sign-and-trade, and how much he really values winning over more money. And how confident he is that he can do well enough to offset some of the lost wages in that 7th year. So as you said, we can't say for sure that winning is more important than the money, because there still is substantial money being left to chance.

[superdave]

That extra year and extra $30 M is really important because the new CBA wont be nearly as generous, probably max 5 years and a smaller salary cap.

[CDu]

That extra year and extra $30 M is really important because the new CBA wont be nearly as generous, probably max 5 years and a smaller salary cap.

That's assuming that the next CBA will last through the length of this coming contract. It may be that another CBA and an entirely different economic situtation is in place 6 years from now than the one that will be in place 1-2 years from now.

Thus, it is entirely uncertain how much (if any) more money will be made by doing a sign-and-trade now. It may be that an economic boom occurs and in 6 years players could sign for even more money. In that case, the sign-and-trade might cost them some money.

All we know is that the sign-and-trade results in ~$30 million more guaranteed. The $30 million more is the largest possible difference (it would assume no contract is signed for that 7th year). It is highly likely that the difference is much smaller, and it's not impossible that the sign-and-trade could cost a player money.

[Indoor66]

That's assuming that the next CBA will last through the length of this coming contract. It may be that another CBA and an entirely different economic situtation is in place 6 years from now than the one that will be in place 1-2 years from now.

Thus, it is entirely uncertain how much (if any) more money will be made by doing a sign-and-trade now. It may be that an economic boom occurs and in 6 years players could sign for even more money. In that case, the sign-and-trade might cost them some money.

All we know is that the sign-and-trade results in ~$30 million more guaranteed. The $30 million more is the largest possible difference (it would assume no contract is signed for that 7th year). It is highly likely that the difference is much smaller, and it's not impossible that the sign-and-trade could cost a player money.

Birds and bushes and all that.

[MisterRoddy]

Well (and I'm sure you know this already - just clarifying for those who might not know), it's not definitely a ~$30+ million difference. That estimate is comparing apples (or 6-year deals) to oranges (7-year deals). The value of a sign-and-trade (or re-signing with the same team) is that the player can get a bit higher raise each year and can get an extra year on the deal. So a lot of the discussion about the $30 million difference is due to the extra year. There's a chance that the player makes up a lot of that difference in money, and a chance that he doesn't. So really, it's a difference of ~$30 million in guaranteed money.

But you're dead on that there is definitely a tradeoff, and it's not an insignificant tradeoff. Ideally of course, Bosh would like to make the max+ deal AND go to a team that is set to contend. But the sign and trade isn't likely to work out so neatly, and he isn't going to contend in Toronto. So it's a matter of how much his new team would have to give up in a sign-and-trade, and how much he really values winning over more money. And how confident he is that he can do well enough to offset some of the lost wages in that 7th year. So as you said, we can't say for sure that winning is more important than the money, because there still is substantial money being left to chance.

I agree that a sign-and-trade to a contendor would be a difficult thing to work out so that all sides are happy. The only way I see a sign-and-trade happening is to the Lakers (perhaps for LO and Bynum). That would make sense, in my estimate. I don't see this happening, but this is the only way I see Bosh getting a S&T to a team that will actually be a contendor (none of the other teams, imo, have the chips so that the Raptors aren't on the short stick).

[A-Tex Devil]

I agree that a sign-and-trade to a contendor would be a difficult thing to work out so that all sides are happy. The only way I see a sign-and-trade happening is to the Lakers (perhaps for LO and Bynum). That would make sense, in my estimate. I don't see this happening, but this is the only way I see Bosh getting a S&T to a team that will actually be a contendor (none of the other teams, imo, have the chips so that the Raptors aren't on the short stick).

Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and a draft pick. If I am Toronto, I might do that ahead of getting nothing.

[Indoor66]

Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and a draft pick. If I am Toronto, I might do that ahead of getting nothing.

I think the bolded is the issue for any of the teams.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and a draft pick. If I am Toronto, I might do that ahead of getting nothing.

That trade surprisingly makes a lot of sense. However, Toronto will want to throw in Hedu (disgruntled) for someone with value, like Ariza.

That would probably be the deal breaker for a lot of teams involved in the sign-and-trade: Hedu

[CDu]

Birds and bushes and all that.

Sure, there's definitely a benefit to certainty. I was just clarifying. Players are likely to end up getting more money through a sign-and-trade or re-sign than signing directly with another team. But that's not certain, and in any case the difference is almost certainly not going to be close to $30 million.

It's a very relevant consideration. There's more guaranteed money (and likely more money in the end). The tradeoff is whether the guaranteed money results in playing for a weakened/lesser team, and whether that tradeoff is worth it. That's what we don't know.

[CDu]

I think the bolded is the issue for any of the teams.

It depends. Getting nothing may be better than getting saddled with overpriced players. For example, Toronto trading Bosh for Jamison+Hickson would probably be worse than simply letting Bosh walk. There's a balance between getting talent back and avoiding getting bad contracts back.

[superdave]

It depends. Getting nothing may be better than getting saddled with overpriced players. For example, Toronto trading Bosh for Jamison+Hickson would probably be worse than simply letting Bosh walk. There's a balance between getting talent back and avoiding getting bad contracts back.

Jamison has two years and $28 left on his contract. So it could be eventually used as expiring bait a year from now. Hickson was 8 and 5 this year in a limited role and is only 21. He could eventually be a 16 and 8 type of guy, a starter and 4th scoring option.

I like the idea of Kevin Martin and Scola, but Bosh did not put Houston on his list of teams so he'd likely veto that.

Unless there's a creative way for Bosh to get on Cleveland or to go to Chicago alongside Wade or James, then it seems like Miami is a likely FA destination or LA in S&T for Bynum ($14 per year).

[superdave]

The Big Russian seems primed to make some waves. It looks like they could land one of Turner/Evans/Cousins this year, stink for another year and draft high again in 2011.

Then next summer they could go after Carmelo and other FAs. Perhaps the FA summit this year could include Carmelo and Paul...who could go to Brooklyn as a package. Or they could land Bosh and Joe Johnson this year.

Imagine Lopez, Bosh, Turner, Harris plus another FA in 2011 (Carmelo or Paul). Formidable.

[CDu]

Jamison has two years and $28 left on his contract. So it could be eventually used as expiring bait a year from now. Hickson was 8 and 5 this year in a limited role and is only 21. He could eventually be a 16 and 8 type of guy, a starter and 4th scoring option.

I like the idea of Kevin Martin and Scola, but Bosh did not put Houston on his list of teams so he'd likely veto that.

Unless there's a creative way for Bosh to get on Cleveland or to go to Chicago alongside Wade or James, then it seems like Miami is a likely FA destination or LA in S&T for Bynum ($14 per year).

But getting Jamison in return would prevent Toronto from being in on the free agent market next offseason. They aren't likely to actually get any of those free agents, but that's at least the logic. Hickson is a decent player, but he's completely unproven and plays no defense. And Jamison and Hickson both play the same role of soft frontcourt player (with the same lack of defense) as Bargnani, so neither is a good fit there.

I really don't see a trade that would work for Toronto that would get Bosh to Cleveland. The Cavs just don't have the pieces to match up with Toronto. LA would make a lot more sense, because Bynum is at least the right type of player. I don't know if such a deal would go down, but I'd say it has a better shot than Bosh to Cleveland.

But ultimately, I think Miami makes the most sense (unless Bosh and James go together to New York). It's a nice destination and he could team up with Wade. It might cost him some money, but he might be willing to forego some millions to play in Miami and be competitive alongside Wade.

[MisterRoddy]

Kevin Martin, Luis Scola and a draft pick. If I am Toronto, I might do that ahead of getting nothing.

Remember that Chris has to agree to the deal. He has to be sold on the fact that the team he gets traded to will be a surefire contender and while yes, the Rockets would be a playoff team with Bosh, Im not so sure they would be able to compete with the Lakers or the other top Western Conference teams. Chris will choose the team that he wants to sign with and then figure out if they can do a S&T, not the team choosing who they want to do an S&T with.

[CDu]

Remember that Chris has to agree to the deal. He has to be sold on the fact that the team he gets traded to will be a surefire contender and while yes, the Rockets would be a playoff team with Bosh, Im not so sure they would be able to compete with the Lakers or the other top Western Conference teams. Chris will choose the team that he wants to sign with and then figure out if they can do a S&T, not the team choosing who they want to do an S&T with.

I'd only add a slight edit. It takes all three parties (Bosh, the Raptors, and the potential trade partner) for a sign-and-trade to work. If anyone doesn't like the outcome, they can decline. Your point is very relevant in that Bosh will absolutely have a say-so in any sign-and-trade scenario. But so will the Raptors.

[Big Pappa]

According to sources: LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh sit down to discuss future together.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5338472

[superdave]

According to sources: LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh sit down to discuss future together.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5338472

The difficulty for the Heat in this is filling out the rest of the roster. If the Big 3 take up $42-45 million in roster space, they will have to fill the roster with 2nd round picks and veterans at the minimum. Why would LeBron agree to anything until 6-7 of those pieces are in place? I think Chalmers and Beasley are the only two Heat guys under contract right now. Could be tough.

[CDu]

According to sources: LeBron, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh sit down to discuss future together.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5338472

There are already denials that this actually happened. That said, I don't doubt that it happened:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/2...pn-report.html

The rumors are flying fast and furious now. Chicago can get two top-tier guys if they can work a sign-and-trade for one of them using Deng. Miami could get 3 top-tier guys if they can work a sign-and-trade for one of them using Beasley. Those seem to be the top destinations. But there is always NY, and maybe NJ (though things have been quiet there). And there's always the chance that Cleveland re-signs James (that seems like a longer shot now).

I suspect that James and Wade will end up on different teams, though I could be wrong on that. If that's how it works out, then Bosh becomes the swing guy for either Miami or Chicago.

And it'll be interesting to see where Joe Johnson, Boozer, David Lee, and others wind up in all of this.

Chicago has made a lot of moves (and may still make more) to try to get two "max" guys. They could wind up with Boozer/Lee and Joe Johnson, especially if Miami somehow could get all three top guys. That Chicago team would be really good, but they'd perhaps only still be the 2nd/3rd best team in the East.

It should be a really interesting week or two.