NBA Free Agency 2010

[CDu]

Do you think Larry King even knows who LeBron is? I bet he gets at least 3 facts wrong about James in his interview!

So, no Z, Shaq and Delonte - here's their salary breakdown:
Shaq $21.0
Z $0.9
West $4.25

That's over $25.0 M freed up, but the cap will shrink and LeBron will re-sign (currently making over $15 himself).

Would Bosh have to take less than max or would the Cavs just pay the luxury tax?

I could see the Cavs getting Bosh and Ray Allen (midlevel exception).

The problem here is that the Cavs were already well over the cap this past year. So even though O'Neal and West and Ilgauskas come off the books, that doesn't help them much.

The Cavs are currently invested in $46 million without Shaq, Ilgauskas, James, or West:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=9195

That already puts them pretty near the cap. So Bosh can't be signed as a free agent by the Cavs. The only big moves the Cavs can make would be a sign-and-trade, and they don't exactly have valuable commodities to make such a trade happen.

Basically, unless the Cavs get REALLY creative/lucky, LeBron will be deciding whether the current group (with or without O'Neal and/or Ilgauskas) can win it all, or whether he's better off taking a slight paycut and teaming up with Rose/Noah/Bulls or Bosh in NY, or Wade in Miami.

[superdave]

That already puts them pretty near the cap. So Bosh can't be signed as a free agent by the Cavs. The only big moves the Cavs can make would be a sign-and-trade, and they don't exactly have valuable commodities to make such a trade happen.

I think the only likely scenario is Jamsion and Hickson in a sign and trade deal for Bosh. It's do-able.

[MisterRoddy]

I think the only likely scenario is Jamsion and Hickson in a sign and trade deal for Bosh. It's do-able.

I dont see Bosh going to Cleveland. I think the Raptors would want a little more than an aging, injury-prone, former all-star, and a relatively unproven role player.

IMO, the 2 biggest players for Bosh are Miami and Chicago, they both have the space to do it without a sign and trade. I see him ending up in Miami to play with Wade plus that city is very alluring. Also, Miami has enough room to sign another solid free agent such as a Joe Johnson-type. I could see either Miami (most likely) or Chicago having a big off-season and possibly having a "Big 3" of their own by next year.

[CDu]

I think the only likely scenario is Jamsion and Hickson in a sign and trade deal for Bosh. It's do-able.

Yes it's technically doable, but I wouldn't call that a likely scenario. Why would Toronto do that? Hickson isn't all that valuable, and Jamison is, at this point, an overpaid (and under contract for two more years), undersized PF who can't score consistently and can't defend anybody. They'd be just as well off letting Bosh walk for nothing and having cap space for the 2011 offseason than taking on Jamison and Hickson.

As I said, the Cavs would have to get REALLY creative/lucky to pull off a sign-and-trade for another star to go along with James. The Bosh for Jamison/Hickson scenario would constitute as very lucky, as it would require the Raptors making a poor decision.

[CDu]

I dont see Bosh going to Cleveland. I think the Raptors would want a little more than an aging, injury-prone, former all-star, and a relatively unproven role player.

IMO, the 2 biggest players for Bosh are Miami and Chicago, they both have the space to do it without a sign and trade. I see him ending up in Miami to play with Wade plus that city is very alluring. Also, Miami has enough room to sign another solid free agent such as a Joe Johnson-type. I could see either Miami (most likely) or Chicago having a big off-season and possibly having a "Big 3" of their own by next year.

I mostly agree, although I wonder if Bosh rates lower on the priority list for Chicago than James and Johnson. If the Bulls are targeting a wing first, then Bosh's best bets are to try to convince James to go to New York or to go to Miami. Chicago has better pieces for a sign-and-trade than Cleveland, but I think they also don't have enough to make such a deal happen.

But yeah, I think Bosh's options are to join Wade in Miami, to convince James to join him in NY, or to join Rose/Noah in Chicago (assuming Chicago doesn't get James or Johnson first).

[MisterRoddy]

I mostly agree, although I wonder if Bosh rates lower on the priority list for Chicago than James and Johnson. If the Bulls are targeting a wing first, then Bosh's best bets are to try to convince James to go to New York or to go to Miami. Chicago has better pieces for a sign-and-trade than Cleveland, but I think they also don't have enough to make such a deal happen.

But yeah, I think Bosh's options are to join Wade in Miami, to convince James to join him in NY, or to join Rose/Noah in Chicago (assuming Chicago doesn't get James or Johnson first).

I don't really see the Knicks being big players in the Lebron sweepstakes. He's likely going to either Cleveland or Chicago.

However, whoever misses out on Bosh, that team certainly wont be out of options with Stoudemire, Boozer, Lee, etc. all available.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

I don't really see the Knicks being big players in the Lebron sweepstakes. He's likely going to either Cleveland or Chicago.

However, whoever misses out on Bosh, that team certainly wont be out of options with Stoudemire, Boozer, Lee, etc. all available.

Don't forget Nowitzki. I think that NY is a bigger player with LeBron than Cleveland to be honest. Like someone said before, Cleveland does not have the cap space to get Bosh or anyone else in the free agent land and they don't have the pieces to do a sign and trade. I think that James is done playing with pish posh mix of role players. Mo Williams was a good idea, but he is nothing more than a Damon Stoudamire type. They really don't have a lot of potential on their roster. Basically, in my mind, they're screwed.

[MisterRoddy]

Don't forget Nowitzki. I think that NY is a bigger player with LeBron than Cleveland to be honest. Like someone said before, Cleveland does not have the cap space to get Bosh or anyone else in the free agent land and they don't have the pieces to do a sign and trade. I think that James is done playing with pish posh mix of role players. Mo Williams was a good idea, but he is nothing more than a Damon Stoudamire type. They really don't have a lot of potential on their roster. Basically, in my mind, they're screwed.

True about Nowitzki, but I have a hard time believing he will leave Dallas.

Also, you are correct on most parts about Cleveland's situation. But hometown and loyalty figure to play a big role in his decision more than some think. Recently, he stated in an interview with Larry King that Cleveland has the "edge."
A new coach and possibly better team chemistry *cough release West cough* along with a few smart small additions to the team and I could see Cleveland right back in contention next year.

[superdave]

If Bosh wants to play with either James or Wade, which seems like his intention, then he's not going to Chicago. He could sign in Cleveland for 1 year and $12 M then get a max deal the following summer.

Also, what is Toronto likely to get in return for Bosh in a sign and trade? Andrew Bynum has been mentioned a lot, but he's overpaid and not durable. The Heat have Beasley but that's not all that enticing. The Bulls have little of interest outside of Rose/Noah but they are not getting traded.

So Jamison (18 and 8 this year) and Hickson (21 years old, 8 and 5) seem to be a pretty good combo.

[MisterRoddy]

If Bosh wants to play with either James or Wade, which seems like his intention, then he's not going to Chicago. He could sign in Cleveland for 1 year and $12 M then get a max deal the following summer.

Also, what is Toronto likely to get in return for Bosh in a sign and trade? Andrew Bynum has been mentioned a lot, but he's overpaid and not durable. The Heat have Beasley but that's not all that enticing. The Bulls have little of interest outside of Rose/Noah but they are not getting traded.

So Jamison (18 and 8 this year) and Hickson (21 years old, 8 and 5) seem to be a pretty good combo.

I dont think that's a likely scenario as he wants a long-term deal now. Too many wildcards to factor in (he could get an injury)

I could see Bosh and Joe teaming up with Rose in Chicago. But Chicago's pursuit of Lebron will get in the way of a probably more likely, just as smart, decision like this. Thats what I feel will be the ultimate downfall of Chicago, chasing Lebron till the very end and then if he signs with Cleveland, Bosh and Joe are in Miami, Amar'e back with PHX, Boozer and Salmons in NY, etc.

Point is, I hope Chicago doesnt live and die with the decision of Lebron but that could ultimately be the case.

[CDu]

If Bosh wants to play with either James or Wade, which seems like his intention, then he's not going to Chicago. He could sign in Cleveland for 1 year and $12 M then get a max deal the following summer.

No, he can't do that. Cleveland is already going to be near the cap before re-signing LeBron. They won't have the money to sign Bosh outright unless he signs for the mid-level exemption (which would be a huge paycut). The only way Cleveland can get Bosh is via sign and trade. They will only have around $4-5 million available this offseason (depending upon where the cap is set) for free agents.

Also, what is Toronto likely to get in return for Bosh in a sign and trade? Andrew Bynum has been mentioned a lot, but he's overpaid and not durable. The Heat have Beasley but that's not all that enticing. The Bulls have little of interest outside of Rose/Noah but they are not getting traded.

So Jamison (18 and 8 this year) and Hickson (21 years old, 8 and 5) seem to be a pretty good combo.

Jamison/Hickson may or may not be the best return they could get in a sign and trade, but you're neglecting another very relevant alternative. It's not just a matter of trying to identify the best sign-and-trade. It's also a matter of deciding whether or not it's a good idea to consider a sign-and-trade. Jamison and Hickson are expensive and won't get them anywhere as a team, especially because the two play the same position (and they play the same position as Bargnani). They'd be just as well off letting Bosh walk than taking that sign and trade, because Jamison would put them over the cap next offseason.

[superdave]

No, he can't do that. Cleveland is already going to be near the cap before re-signing LeBron. They won't have the money to sign Bosh outright unless he signs for the mid-level exemption (which would be a huge paycut). The only way Cleveland can get Bosh is via sign and trade. They will only have around $4-5 million available this offseason (depending upon where the cap is set) for free agents.



Jamison/Hickson may or may not be the best return they could get in a sign and trade, but you're neglecting another very relevant alternative. It's not just a matter of trying to identify the best sign-and-trade. It's also a matter of deciding whether or not it's a good idea to consider a sign-and-trade. Jamison and Hickson are expensive and won't get them anywhere as a team, especially because the two play the same position (and they play the same position as Bargnani). They'd be just as well off letting Bosh walk than taking that sign and trade, because Jamison would put them over the cap next offseason.

Can't the Cavs just pay the luxury tax?

[CDu]

Can't the Cavs just pay the luxury tax?

No. The salary cap prevents you from signing external free agents. In order to go outside of the organization to sign free agents, a team has to have enough space under the cap to sign that player. The Cavs don't have enough space under the cap to sign Bosh. The luxury tax is a separate issue. A team is allowed to go over the cap to re-sign their own free agents. Many teams do this. The luxury tax is just a penalty for paying "too much" for their own free agents. So teams with cap space will typically wait until they've signed the free agents that they can afford under the cap, and then they re-sign their own free agents. The Cavs only have maybe ~$4-7 million to play with (depending on exactly where the cap is set), so they can only afford a cheaper free agent.

I think Cleveland's best bet is to hope LeBron re-signs, and then trade Jamison in the 2011-2012 season (when his expiring contract becomes valuable). Basically, LeBron would be taking one more season with a team that looks a lot like this year's team, and then hoping the team can make a really good deadline deal. But if they want to bring in another top-tier guy, they'd have to do it via sign-and-trade. And right now, they don't really bring much to the table via sign and trade.

[BattierD12]

Everything from praise for JJ's performance from SVG, his cooking expertise, to the upcoming thoughts on free agency:

http://www.nba.com/magic/news/denton...re_060110.html

[sundown]

Yes it's technically doable, but I wouldn't call that a likely scenario. Why would Toronto do that? Hickson isn't all that valuable, and Jamison is, at this point, an overpaid (and under contract for two more years), undersized PF who can't score consistently and can't defend anybody. They'd be just as well off letting Bosh walk for nothing and having cap space for the 2011 offseason than taking on Jamison and Hickson.

As I said, the Cavs would have to get REALLY creative/lucky to pull off a sign-and-trade for another star to go along with James. The Bosh for Jamison/Hickson scenario would constitute as very lucky, as it would require the Raptors making a poor decision.

This is right. There's no chance Toronto would want Jamison: he makes way too much money, especially considering the bad contracts they already have, and putting him at PF would make them the worst defensive team of all time.

[superdave]

This is right. There's no chance Toronto would want Jamison: he makes way too much money, especially considering the bad contracts they already have, and putting him at PF would make them the worst defensive team of all time.

The problem is Bosh prefers the sign and trade, but there's no value out there to make Toronto jump. Beasley? Parting gifts from the Bulls? Bynum? Jamison/Hickson? None are very good options and now Turkoglu wants out as well.

Bosh seems to me to be the second piece to everyone's puzzle, but he's a difficult fit under the cap once you've splurged on Wade/James. Will be fun to watch though!

[MisterRoddy]

The problem is Bosh prefers the sign and trade, but there's no value out there to make Toronto jump. Beasley? Parting gifts from the Bulls? Bynum? Jamison/Hickson? None are very good options and now Turkoglu wants out as well.

Bosh seems to me to be the second piece to everyone's puzzle, but he's a difficult fit under the cap once you've splurged on Wade/James. Will be fun to watch though!

While a sign and trade would make sense for Bosh, what makes you think that he prefers it? Any sources?

[CDu]

The problem is Bosh prefers the sign and trade, but there's no value out there to make Toronto jump. Beasley? Parting gifts from the Bulls? Bynum? Jamison/Hickson? None are very good options and now Turkoglu wants out as well.

Bosh seems to me to be the second piece to everyone's puzzle, but he's a difficult fit under the cap once you've splurged on Wade/James. Will be fun to watch though!

Well, whether or not Bosh prefers a sign and trade is irrelevant - the Raptors don't have to do him any favors. They'll only do the sign and trade if it is best for them, and as you said none of those deals seems good for them. As such, the Raptors can make a stand and say "either you sign with us, or you walk." If they're smart, they'll do this (that's a big "if").

Miami and Chicago would seem the best fits for Bosh (assuming he can't convince James to join him in New York). Either can sign Bosh without a sign and trade. Remember - Miami can simply sign Bosh first, then re-sign Wade to go over the cap. Of course, signing Bosh as a free agent would mean less money for Bosh. But both teams offer great talent to work with, which is I think the bigger issue for Bosh at this point. If his only choice is to re-sign with Toronto or move on as a free agent, he'll do what he has to do to compete for a championship.

You're absolutely right though - this will be very interesting and fun to watch. There are a lot of different scenarios that are reasonably possible, each involving substantial changes in the balance of power.

I think James is the key. If he stays in Cleveland, then Bosh could either go to Miami or Chicago. If James goes to New York, Bosh will probably join him there. If James goes to Chicago, then Bosh will probably go to Miami. But even after James decides, there is a lot that could go on with Bosh, Boozer, Wade, et al.

[A-Tex Devil]

Back to JJ. I wish the Rockets would make a run at him. He has to be right in Daryl Morey's wheelhouse as far as what he brings to the table. Although Morey keeps his sabremetrics so tightly guarded, I couldn't be sure.

So here is the Rockets dream scenario:

1. Sign JJ
2. Sign and trade with Toronto for Chris Bosh -- would probably have to trade Kevin Martin and some expiring contracts and picks.

So your starters are:

Aaron Brooks
Trevor Ariza
Shane Battier
Chris Bosh
Yao Ming

With JJ, Luis Scola, Chase Budinger, Kyle Lowry off the bench.

If Yao stays healthy and Bosh is the super star people think he can be, that's a pretty formidable line up. I don't think Toronto does that trade without Scola, though, and I don't think the Rockets go after JJ if they have Martin and Ariza.

[pfrduke]

While a sign and trade would make sense for Bosh, what makes you think that he prefers it? Any sources?

I can only presume that his preference for it is that it would allow him to get a bigger contract. If he signs as a free agent, his options are max with new team, or max+ with Toronto. If he goes to a new team via sign and trade, he gets the max+ with the new team.