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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Colorado Springs, Colorado

    UNC Recruitment and a Roster Comparison

    Roy did not bring in one player this year, can someone explain that logic to me. Is he under the impression that he has no needs, because beyond Hansborough and Lawson, I don't see how they are any better an any position beyond what they did this year, and that is without Wright.

    I do not believe UNC is head and shoulders above Duke at all, let's look at a roster comparison and see if Roy should have brought in at least a shooting guard or something this year, seems pretty evident he has some holes to fill.

    Let's compare Rosters:

    Lawson Paulus (even)
    Ellington Henderson (Edge Duke) Gerald is going to be a star
    Ginyard DeMarcus (Edge Duke) Same player, Markie has more O
    Copeland Singler (Edge Duke) Kyle is more polished on O
    Hansblabla Zoubs (Edge UNC) A Big one by the way

    Bench
    Greene Scheyer (Edge Duke) different players but I'll take Jon
    Stepheson Thomas (Even) Toss up for now
    Thompson King (Even) Ditto
    Thomas Smith (Edge Duke) Thomas is a liability, Smith a stopper
    Frasor McClure (Even)
    Graves Pocius (who knows...)

    Why are they pre-season #1 in some polls and Duke is back in the 22-23 with the two rosters we are looking at?

    RockyMtDevil

  2. #2

    Sorry...

    I love Paulus to death and he is my favorite Duke player at the moment but there's no way he and Lawson are "even". Lawson could almost score at will against Paulus and Paulus would have a tough time scoring on Lawson. IMHO

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Quote Originally Posted by kramerbr View Post
    I love Paulus to death and he is my favorite Duke player at the moment but there's no way he and Lawson are "even". Lawson could almost score at will against Paulus and Paulus would have a tough time scoring on Lawson. IMHO
    Agreed. And as excited as I am to see Henderson develop, I don't think you can say point-blank that he's got the edge on Ellington. Draft Express slightly favors Ellington.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Colorado Springs, Colorado
    Given Paulus' ability to hit the three and hopefully finally be healthy, he presents a totally different game than simply pushing the ball at full speed up the court and trying to penetrate and dish everytime down. Ultimately, I want to see Lawson hit some open shots and limit his turnovers before I say he is hands down better than Greg.

  5. #5
    Copeland as a starter? He'll be lucky to get 7 minutes a game.

    Thompson or Green (depending if Roy wants to go small or big) will be the starter almost guaranteed. And Stephenson will be Thompson's (and Hansbrough's) main backup.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by RockyMtDevil View Post
    Ultimately, I want to see Lawson hit some open shots and limit his turnovers before I say he is hands down better than Greg.
    Hitting open shots I can understand, but Lawson was outstanding in his assist/turnover by the end of the season. For the total of our ACC and NCAA play, he had 39 assists and 11 turnovers. That's pretty incredible, especially considering that for the most part we were playing pretty good teams.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Looking at returning players, UNC has an advantage at Point Guard (Lawson) and in the Post (Hansbrough/Thompson/Stephenson). Duke has an advantage at 2-Guard (Scheyer/Pocius) and the Wing (Nelson/Henderson). Two factors will determine how good Duke is in 07-08. First, the level of development of Thomas and Zoubek as post players. We need significant productive minutes from both. And, the level of productivity of Duke's incoming Freshmen. Will Singler, Smith, and King come in and improve Duke as a team? As always, staying healthy will be a key factor.

    For UNC, I believe they will miss Reyshawn Terry more than some folks realize. Who is going to step up and be the team leader? I also agree that Quentin Thomas is a liability.

    I predict a Duke sweep!

    Bob Green
    Yokosuka, Japan

  8. #8
    To say that we are even is a bold statement, I agree that are wings are better than UNC. But there post players are going to eat us alive, we have nobody to stop tyler, and there is no way Copeland will be starting, the only time he will be on the court is during the layup drills. Deon Thompson will be starting and I'am as big as a Duke fan as any of you, but there is no way we sweep UNC, we will be lucky to win one game against UNC.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Bud View Post
    ... but there is no way we sweep UNC, we will be lucky to win one game against UNC.
    I disagree with your assessment of the situation and believe we are in good shape going into the 07-08 season. Our situation at the 2-Guard and Wing is rock solid. Greg Paulus is a solid though not spectacular Point Guard. We will need Thomas and Zoubek to be more productive. The incoming Freshmen are the Wild Card.

    UNC is down two starters (Wright and Terry) and brought in zero new players. We can definitely beat them!

    Bob Green
    Yokosuka, Japan

  10. #10
    I wouldn't be surprised if we split. Hell, we almost lost the Cameron game we played against you this year and the talent discrepancy was larger then than it will be next season.

  11. #11
    Bob Green I agree that are guards and wings are solid but are post players are what scares me. Last year if Josh did not get the rebound the other team did, we will not have Josh this year for rebounds. I think teams like UNC and NC State are going to kill us on the boards. I do agree that are freshman are the wild card they are going to make are break are season. I still say UNC is going to be better than us next year, I hope I'am wrong, only time will tell.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.

    Bad matchup

    UNC is a bad matchup for Duke with Lawson and Hansborough being virtually unstoppable. I think Lawson in particular is going to be much more in control/command this upcoming season. I was really hoping he would have gone pro. Deon Thompson showed flashes last season of being a real beast down low with a nice touch and reports on the UNC board of his off-season progress do not bode well for the ACC. You have got to think that Ellington will become more consistent next year and that Frasor will be back to being healthy. Add in a more mature Green, Ginyard, and Stephenson and I think Duke is lucky to be close in any games with UNC next year. Now the rest of the ACC is a different story.

  13. #13
    I don't know who Copeland is so I won't mess with that match up, but I must say you are dreaming on the rest of the starters. Paulus is tough but he can't touch Lawson. Ellington is not as athletic as Henderson but far more polished as a player. Ginyard/Nelson I don't know what to say. You can argue that Nelson has more offense but he also looks to score more than Ginyard. Besides, I won't give Nelson a flat out advantage until he turns into a more consistent scorer and doesn't fade in the second half of games. By the way, if I'm Roy I don't need any additions because we are already a top 10 team.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Western North Carolina

    Back to Recruiting

    UNC was in a bad spot last year. Potential recruits looked at UNC and were very uncertain.

    If UNC wins the NC, or has a very strong showing in the FF, then UNC suffers massive attrition in the form of losing Wright, Hans, Lawson, and Ellington, along with graduating Sr's.

    But, for potential recruits, many of whom commit and sign prior to the season, this was no sure thing. By the time they made their decisions, they had not seen UNC play a significant game. As talented as UNC was last year, many of the most talented players were freshman, and it is hard to accurately guage and predict their performance at the major collge level.

    As it turned out, potential recruits were smart to avoid UNC. UNC underachieved in the postseason (no way to put lipstick on that pig), and the expected attrition did not occur. Since UNC did not suffer the expected attrition, losing only BW, who was a 1-and-done certainty, no matter what anyone else was saying, there were few roster slots available. Roy went after, and was turned down by, the only recruit who would have gotten sure fire minutes, Kevin Love. Other players in the class probably would have gotten PT, but, given the returning players, it would have been a fight, and top flight recruits do not flock to schools where they have to fight and scrape for minutes.

    Roy loaded for bear, knowing that if he bagged it, the cupboard might be bare next year. He failed to bag the big prize, and the current players realized they needed more seasoning. There were no minutes available for incoming frosh, and they wisely stayed away. They are still noticably better than we are next year.

    On a related note, some of you are smoking crack in your comparisions. Hans will beat whoever we have in the post. BZ might slow him down some, but BZ's underdeveloped O will result in a net loss at the position. KS will go nuts on Thompson or Stephenson, but he has to guard one of them on the other side. They are much bigger and stronger, and have well developed low post moves, so I think KS will have trouble. We will win that position, but I think it will be a small net gain.

    I saw in one of the preseason predictions where one writer sad how scary UNC's backcourt would be once they became more complete, ie learned to play D. And both TL and WE were god-awful on D last year. Many freshman are. Most of those Frosh take huge strides their Soph years in that Department. Imagine if TL used his quickness to play D. WE has potential in that regard as well.

    Also, off season improvent is not limited to Duke. Roy has a history of really improving his kids over the summer. No way are TL and WE not currently in the gym jacking up Jumpers. If TL is a consistent shooter next year, everyone in the ACC, Duke included, is in a world of hurt. Who does Paulus guard. WE or TL are the only options when they are on the court together, and that is a nightmare for us, especially if they step up the Defense. They could have stopped GP this year, only they didn't really try on D. GP couldn't stop them, no matter how much he tried, and I cannot question GP's effort.

    As far as Henderson, I agree that his ceiling is higher than WE. But, that asthma is a major problem. That is the sort of thing that can derail a career. Who knows if he will overcome it. We are all sort of taking it for granted that it won't be a problem next year. Maybe it will be.

    As for JS and DN, I remain unconvinced we are much better than UNC's Green and Ginyard. Those guys have size on both our players, and athleticism, if only slightly, on JS. If, and it's a solid if, we are better here, it is not by much.

    By my caluculations we are weaker, and maybe by a great deal, at PG and C, by far the most important positions in college, if not all levels of basketball. Last year, the best wing to play college ball in decades had marginal TEAM success, while teams with good posts and PG were very successful. We will be OK to good next year, but we remain solidly behind UNC, which will be one of, if not the, elite team nationally next season.

    Patrick Yates

    ps UNC got Larry Drew, who they long ago offered for, who is dropping like a rock. He is short and fast in the TL catagory, but he appears to be having some trouble with the distributing portion of being a PG. Rivals and scout pronged him, hard, saying that he is a vastly undersized scoring guard with poor floor vision. He is very skinny, unlike the stout TL. This doesn't hurt us, and the Roe defection was huge for UNC. The monster class they may have to have next year is not shaping up they way they'd hoped. Yay.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Goldsboro, NC

    Paulus and Lawson Even....

    I wish.......I love Greg to death and he is a much better shooter, but I would love to have a guy like Lawson who can penetrate and finish or dish. I really hope Duke can recruit a PG in the near future that has the ability to go by people like Duhon and Jay Williams use to.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Goldsboro, NC

    Agreed....

    Quote Originally Posted by mcdukie View Post
    I don't know who Copeland is so I won't mess with that match up, but I must say you are dreaming on the rest of the starters. Paulus is tough but he can't touch Lawson. Ellington is not as athletic as Henderson but far more polished as a player. Ginyard/Nelson I don't know what to say. You can argue that Nelson has more offense but he also looks to score more than Ginyard. Besides, I won't give Nelson a flat out advantage until he turns into a more consistent scorer and doesn't fade in the second half of games. By the way, if I'm Roy I don't need any additions because we are already a top 10 team.
    I see Carolina having an BIG ADVANTAGE with Lawson and Hansblah. As for the other 3 spots I wouldn't give Duke a clear advantage on any of them, I see them all as a toss up.

  17. #17
    Like I said are guards are good but so are there guards. Also I think there guards are more athletic. But the big problem is are post players, there post player are better and more experinced then are post player's are. In the end that will kill us I agree we will be lucky to keep the games close between UNC. Everybody keeps saying well Brian and Lance are going to improve which I think they will but what if they don't. And even if they do they still will not be is good as UNC post player's. I no we have three very talented freshmen coming in, but we no from experince you can't count on freshmen to lead your team.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    MKE
    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Yates View Post


    Also, off season improvent is not limited to Duke. Roy has a history of really improving his kids over the summer. No way are TL and WE not currently in the gym jacking up Jumpers. If TL is a consistent shooter next year, everyone in the ACC, Duke included, is in a world of hurt.
    you have not read TL's quotes w.r.t. practice. i doubt he will improve much either as a shooter or as a defender. he's a supremely talented player in the derrick coleman mold (mentally).

  19. #19
    Like these Lawson quotes:

    "I started practicing hard, that's probably the main thing," he said. "Going hard at everything in practice. … I've now realized that how you do in practice is how you'll do in the game, so practice is a big part."

    Lawson said practice at Oak Hill Academy was mostly scrimmaging, so getting used to the regiment and intensity of a college practice took some getting used to. Now he's fine with it.

    "It's a benefit," he said. "It gets you better faster."

  20. #20
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    I agree with the large majority of the posts on this board in saying that Carolina is distinctly better than us next year (although I do think we can sneak one out). I perceive an advantage in the guard/wing positions and in depth for Duke. However, Carolina has the two best players on the court which basically supercedes anything we can tout in our advantage. In crunch time, basketball is played by its star players and sadly, Carolina brings more to the table. I'd rather have Lawson driving to the hoop with the game on the line than Paulus (who I THINK will be the go-to player in the stretch next year) taking a jump shot.

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