Top Summer Movies 2010

[JasonEvans]

That was my favorite too, but I didn't think it would be a top 5 box office contender. Note that this isn't about the best movies -- it's about butts in seats.

Yup. To be precise it is about butts in seats + 3D glasses over eyes = mucho moolah. Just ask James Cameron.

--Jason "a successful 3D flick adds about 15-20% to the boxoffice take from the 3D extra charge" Evans

[cf-62]

That was my favorite too, but I didn't think it would be a top 5 box office contender. Note that this isn't about the best movies -- it's about butts in seats.

Oh yeah, I understand that. You can see it in my votes last year. I picked Transformers (accurate selection), but didn't even bother to go, even though I thought there were some interesting things to be seen in Transformers I.

Conversely, I didn't vote for Terminator, even though it was one of the only movies I was anxiously awaiting - as I thought the "return to the roots" genre of John Connor wouldn't necessarily pack in the seats.

[cf-62]

Yup. To be precise it is about butts in seats + 3D glasses over eyes = mucho moolah. Just ask James Cameron.

--Jason "a successful 3D flick adds about 15-20% to the boxoffice take from the 3D extra charge" Evans

What extra 3-d charge? There's no extra charge in Durham.

[JasonEvans]

What extra 3-d charge? There's no extra charge in Durham.

Really? I am shocked. Real 3D (not the red and blue colored stuff) generally is a $2-$4 add-on in most theaters. If you do not get upcharged for it, you are really lucky.

--Jason "here is a story on efforts to limit the upcharge" Evans

[cf-62]

Really? I am shocked. Real 3D (not the red and blue colored stuff) generally is a $2-$4 add-on in most theaters. If you do not get upcharged for it, you are really lucky.

--Jason "here is a story on efforts to limit the upcharge" Evans

It would make sense to have the upcharge - although if I actually PAID for the glasses, I would demand a pair that fit, didn't hurt my head, and didn't have scratched lenses.

Personally, I find the spate of 3d movies annoying. Even Avatar really only had about 30 minutes of really cool 3-d effects. The rest was like being at Epcot.

[Blue in the Face]

Iron Man 2
Shrek
Toy Story
Twilight
Dinner for Schmucks (suspect this will be mediocre, but rolling the dice on it being another Hangover).

[brevity]

I need to remind myself to set up this poll next year. 11 named options, 1 "other," and most importantly, scheduled release dates. The success of The Hangover last year, while still surprising, was somewhat foreseeable once you noticed that nothing eventful was coming out in that movie's first 3-4 weeks of release.

For those who plan to vote before Friday, I add the following. (Info from Box Office Mojo.)

Iron Man 2 (May 7, no wide release opposition)
Robin Hood (May 14, against Just Wright and Letters to Juliet)
Shrek Forever After (May 21, against MacGruber)
Sex and the City 2 (May 27, against Prince of Persia)
Prince of Persia (May 28, against SATC2)
Get Him to the Greek (June 4, against Killers, Marmaduke, and Splice)
The A-Team (June 11, against The Karate Kid)
Toy Story 3 (June 18, against Jonah Hex)
Knight and Day (June 25, against Grown Ups)
Grown Ups (June 25, against Knight & Day)
Twilight: Eclipse (June 30, against The Last Airbender)
The Last Airbender (July 2, against Twilight: Eclipse)
Despicable Me (July 9, against Predators)
Inception (July 16, against The Sorcerer's Apprentice)
Salt (July 23, against Dinner for Schmucks)
Dinner for Schmucks (July 23, against Salt)
The Adjustment Bureau (September 19? What is this doing here?)

Note that SATC2 and Twilight open a day or two early. Apparently, that's how chicks roll.

I got 4 out of 5 last year, picking Public Enemies instead of Other (The Hangover). Which was pretty damn good, considering the leap of faith I took in ignoring both Memorial Day releases (Terminator: Salvation and Night at the Museum 2). I doubt I'll do as well this year.

[JasonEvans]

I threw it.

I voted for the 4 super-sequels (Iron Man 2, Toy Story 3, Shrek 4, Twilight 3) because I think those 4 are pretty much locks to make $220+ million just like their earlier versions did.

I spent a lot of time thinking about my fifth pick. Nothing else really stands out to me. Robin Hood is a good choice (name/story recognition make it alm ost like a sequel). So is Prince of Persia because of the pedigree of the folks behind it (Mike Newell and Bruckheimer have pretty strong track records). I came really close to picking that one. I think Sorcerer's Apprentice (not on our list) could be a strong contender too as it may draw from kid and adult audiences to form a powerful combo.

Decent arguments can be made for many of the films on the ballot list.

And then I voted for Inception. Don't ask my why. I am fairly sure the sci-fi plot of the film (invading dreams) will make it virtually impossible for it to have the mass appeal neccessary to be in the top 5. But, I love everything Christopher Nolan has ever done and my mouse just magically clicked on Inception. I voted against Nolan last time around and hang my head in shame at that. Never again.

--Jason "is it too late to change my vote to Apprentice?" Evans

[Udaman]

So my picks are in.

First the three locks: Toy Story 3, Iron Man 2 and Shrek 4 (in that order). Absolute locks.

Then the one's I didn't vote for that most others did.

Robin Hood - this just looks too much like so many other movies done (not the least of which was Gladiator). I think it will do OK, and could certainly break the top 5, but I have a feeling it will fall flat in week 2 with Prince of Persia (more below).

Twilight: Yeah, the 2nd one did great...but it also came out in November with not much competition for that market...and no summer distractions or blockbusters. Plus, it just came out in November. My daughter (who is 11) saw it and didn't like it nearly as much as the 1st. I just have a feeling this one will do less than $200M

So, which two did I vote for:

Despicable Me....there will be no true kid movies in competition with this one, and it comes out 3 weeks after Toy Story...and it's in 3D...and it looks funny. I think this makes $200M plus

The Last Airbender...huge gamble here. But again, it's 3D, and the previews look pretty cool - plus it has the 4th of July all to itself (other than Twilight, which will NOT capture the 15 and under boy market at all). If this gets even remotely good reviews, it could pop.

As for my sleepers: They would be Dinner for Smucks (great cast, true comedy, when there aren't more out there) and possibly Inception - though I think the sci fi premise will hurt the total audience.

[Udaman]

Oh, forgot to add the busts. Prince of Persia for certain. This movie has trouble written all over it - especially the fact that it follows Robin Hood. This is a Hollywood bust waiting to happen.

Also, I could see Knight and Day and the A Team really falling short of studio hopes.

[cato]

Then the one's I didn't vote for that most others did.

Robin Hood - this just looks too much like so many other movies done (not the least of which was Gladiator). I think it will do OK, and could certainly break the top 5, but I have a feeling it will fall flat in week 2 with Prince of Persia (more below).

I'll take that bet (well, I guess I did, since I voted for Robin Hood). People love adventures, the Robin Hood story and movie heros who stand up to English kings. I think that will be enough to make it a blockbuster, if the action is good, the plot is compelling, and everything else is adequate (see: Braveheart). Oh, and I noticed that the lead was on the Today show the other day, so it's obviously getting marketing support from the studio. All in all, my guess is that it hits big.

[theAlaskanBear]

I'll take that bet (well, I guess I did, since I voted for Robin Hood). People love adventures, the Robin Hood story and movie heros who stand up to English kings. I think that will be enough to make it a blockbuster, if the action is good, the plot is compelling, and everything else is adequate (see: Braveheart). Oh, and I noticed that the lead was on the Today show the other day, so it's obviously getting marketing support from the studio. All in all, my guess is that it hits big.

Me and my friends are all joking that robin hood is gladiator 2...but that doesnt mean we arent going to pack the theatres for it!! No one can play a bad I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. quite like Russell Crowe.

I am already suggesting they make another movie with Crowe, either set in Spain during the Reconquista, or as Cortez or Bernal Diaz del Castillo vs Tenochtitlan.

Then we could cast him in another violent epic set during the Napoleonic wars.

[Big Pappa]

I'm really ready for "Inception". Leo is a stud.

[Udaman]

My issue with Robin Hood is that the previews look forced. We've seen this movie before (both the style of movie, and the movie itself with Kevin Costner). It's also really, really long - coming in at nearly 2 1/2 hours (nearly 30 minutes longer than Iron Man 2).

Throw in that the next weekend it goes up against Shrek, and then Prince of Persia and Sex and the City...and I think it will fall rather sharply. Of course then there isn't really anything for two more weeks, so it might manage to pull in $25M or so each of those weeks.

We'll see, but I think this one comes in at under $200M, and I think the top 5 will clearly be $200M and above.

[Highlander]

Article on why Iron Man may not be the big winner this year:

[brevity]

I put my picks in not long after my last post. It turns out that my fate is tied to Brian12215 and PensDevil, who picked the same five movies. If nothing else, this tells me that Brian12215 and PensDevil have excellent taste.

It's unlikely many more people will vote on this in the next few hours, so here's how I see it.

Iron Man 2 is the first summer movie out of the gate, with (I repeat) no wide release competition. It will make over $150 million before the next film makes $1. That next film happens to be Robin Hood, and I can see it cutting into the same audience. This should prevent Iron Man 2 from topping the summer charts, but top 5 should be no problem.

Shrek Forever After, like all fourth films, is completely unnecessary and normally unlikely to crack the box office of the previous 3 films. But it has two things going for it: it's the first animated offering of the summer, and it has a 4 WEEK headstart on Pixar.

Toy Story 3 is that Pixar offering, and if they can make $200 million off French rats, silent robots, or widowed curmudgeons, they can do anything.

Twilight: Eclipse will be this year's Harry Potter: a November tradition that tries to make more money in the summer, but ends up doing about the same. In this case, that should be enough.

I agree with the others that the fifth film is not as obvious a choice, but I went with Despicable Me for two reasons: (1) after the strong showing of the third Ice Age last year, I'd rather pick too many animated films than too few; (2) with Miranda Cosgrove, the children's TV industry is going to promote the hell out of it. More than half the eventual audience won't even know who Steve Carell is.

Finally, for the second straight summer, I'm ignoring Memorial Day. Last year was a risk, but this year is easy. Sex and the City 2 and Prince of Persia are competing for the exact same target audience, and there are only so many gay men and single women to go around.

[PensDevil]

I put my picks in not long after my last post. It turns out that my fate is tied to Brian12215 and PensDevil, who picked the same five movies. If nothing else, this tells me that Brian12215 and PensDevil have excellent taste.

Thanks for the compliment. For the record my picks are in no way based on the films I think I will like.

Iron Man 2, sure. I like most any superhero movie. Even though early reviews say it isn't as good as the first, it will still do great.

Shrek 4... Another big sequel. I liked the first Shrek. Thought the second was pretty good, but just more of the same. Never even bothered to watch the third.

Toy Story 3. A Pixar film. That's good enough for me. Not only do they rake in the cash, but I will watch anything Pixar puts out.

Twilight 3. Eh. I've read the books. Liked the first movie. The second was kind of slow and didn't really entertain me (just like the book). This one should be better, and it still carries the Twilight name.

Despicable Me looks like another animated film that both adults and children should enjoy. It should have a couple of weeks as the best family movie choice.

I can't bring myself to have any faith in a movie based on a video game anymore. There have been too many bad ones. I am also looking forward to Dinner for Schmucks, Inception and (guiltily) The A-Team.

Most likely the box office will not be getting my dollars though, as I typically wait for the BluRay releases. November/December is my summer blockbuster time. I haven't been to a theater since putting my own in a few years back. Which also means I haven't yet seen one of the new generation 3D movies. I may have to catch Toy Story 3 in 3D though...

[Udaman]

Sex and the City 2 and Prince of Persia are competing for the exact same target audience, and there are only so many gay men and single women to go around.

Brilliant (and hysterical because it's true)

[bundabergdevil]

Not sure if its too late to toss my picks in. Enjoyed lurking and watching results roll in last summer so thought I'd take a shot.

The Big 3 - Toy Story 3, Shrek 4, and Iron Man 2


I'm not sure Vampires have the same box office staying power as, say, pirates or robots so I'm not too big on Twilight. (Then again, I'm not a tween girl longing for mystery and intrigue.)

None of the comedies coming out strike me as having the chance to recreate the Wedding Crashers or Hangover effect.

And, none of the sprawling, large-scale adventure flicks (Robin Hood/Prince of Persia, etc) seem to have any "wow, this is going to be epic" sort of buzz.

I'd love to vote for Inception because I'm actually looking forward to it but I think I'm going to have to go animated and July 4th opening for my last two.

So, Despicable Me and The Last Airbender (...and I hope 'airbender' doesn't mean M. Night is whipping out another round of deadly wind or plant spores or Wahlberg acting.)

[bjornolf]

I didn't vote in time, so I'll just list mine:

Iron Man 2
Shrek Forever After
Toy Story 3
Twilight: Eclipse
Avatar: The Last Airbender

I want to pick Robin Hood cause I think I'll like it better, but the live action movie based on one of the most popular cartoons in Nickelodeon history just screams dark horse to me. The cartoon is great, I just don't know how it'll translate. However, millions of kids will flock to see it.