Acc 2010-2011

[houstondukie]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite and has a great shot of going 16-0. With so many talented players going pro, most teams will be worse next year.

Here is a look at some of the losses:

Clemson - lost Booker and Potter; Purnell gone
Wake Forest - lost Smith, Aminu, Williams, McFarland, and Weaver (add top 10 recruiting class, new coach)
Maryland - lost Vasquez, Milbourne, and Hayes
Georgia Tech - lost Favors, Lawal, Peacock, and Bell
Miami - lost Collins, Dews, Thomas, and McGowan (return Grant and Scott)
UNC - lost Davis, Ginyard, and Thompson (add top 3 recruiting class)
Virginia - lost Landesberg and Meyinsse
FSU - lost Alabi? and Reid (Singleton returns, Snaer breakout season?)
Boston College - in turmoil

Virginia Tech doesn't lose much (assuming Delaney returns) and NC State should be a lot better w/ Harrow and maybe C.J. Leslie signing.

Who is going to be Duke's biggest challenge? Anyone else think we can and should go 16-0?

In a 64-team tournament, I can't see more than 4 teams making it from the ACC next yr. Fortunately or unfortunately, with the 96-team expansion, probably 8 teams make it.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite and has a great shot of going 16-0.

Anyone else think we can and should go 16-0?

Welcome to my side of the fence! Ain't the kool-aide great!

[Bluedog]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite

Yes...

and has a great shot of going 16-0.

Uh, no. A great shot? Even the greatest teams slip up every once in a while. But I believe we'll likely be the favorite in every game.

Who is going to be Duke's biggest challenge? Anyone else think we can and should go 16-0?

Can? Yes, but very unlikely. Should? No. I actually think NC St might surprise next season with Harrow and co.; I noticed you left them off your list.

[houstondukie]

I actually think NC St might surprise next season with Harrow and co.; I noticed you left them off your list.

I went back and edited my original post, but NC State will be playing at DUKE this year and we will not lose at home.

[camion]

As others have said, going 16-0 in conference play is possible, but not likely. For instance if we have a 80% chance of winning each individual game then we have about a 3% chance of winning them all. A 95% favorite in each game still has only about a 44% chance of winning them all.

Note: Finding this web site made the calculation a bit easier.

[Newton_14]

I went back and edited my original post, but NC State will be playing at DUKE this year and we will not lose at home.

Actually we play State twice next year. So a trip to Raleigh and a tough game. There is also still a good chance that State gets CJ Leslie. They will be much better than they were this year.

[roywhite]

Really, I see a lot of positives for the ACC since season end:

Upgrade for coach at Wake and BC
Though I respect Pernell, I think a change at Clemson could be positive also
Kyle returns
2 best (or certainly 2 of the best) incoming recruits in the country, Kyrie and HB
NC State is adding a PG (Harrow) to some other pieces

Duke is the definite favorite but the league should be strong overall

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

Is there a thread about the acc next year already? can we combine the two, because the other one had great information on it as well if I recall.

[jimsumner]

16-0?

Highly unlikely. Note that the 2010 NCAA champions lost by double digits to a mediocre North Carolina State team.

It's a tough neighborhood out there and there will be some slip-ups.

[cptnflash]

Just to add some historical context, in the 30 years Coach K has been at Duke, we've gone undefeated in conference exactly once, in 98/99. In fact, all of our national championship teams lost at least 2 games in conference. No reason to expect next year to be any different.

[sagegrouse]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite and has a great shot of going 16-0. With so many talented players going pro, most teams will be worse next year.

I admire your enthusiasm, but... The only recent undefeated Duke team in the ACC was in 1999 and did not win the NC. And the 1992 team lost two ACC games. I would tone it down. We lost a good bit of talent and next year is a new team with potentially 11 players in the mix.

This isn't a situation where we are starting over, but there is a team that needs to be built. Of course, the pieces look pretty darn good!

sagegrouse

[Big Pappa]

I also don't think we will go 16-0 but we are the favorites. I'm not sure that is negotiable. I think that UNC and VaTech will give us the most problems.

HB was going to be matchup nightmare until Kyle decided to come back, but he will still be a tough guard. He can flat out play. They have skill inside with Zeller and Henson but I don't think either one of them can bang with the Brothers Plumlee.

As far as Va Tech, most likely Delaney comes back and they don't lose any of their top 7 contributors. Hudson and Allen are both good players and Delaney can be a star.

[brevity]

Is there a thread about the acc next year already? can we combine the two, because the other one had great information on it as well if I recall.

Combine away:
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/...ad.php?t=20826

It was on Page 6. Hard to blame someone for starting a new thread; easy to blame others for starting 5 full pages of threads since.

[wilson]

Upgrade for coach at Wake

This is highly debatable. Many in Winston would not agree with this assessment right now.

[dukelifer]

Glancing at the ACC next year, it's pretty clear that DUKE will be the clear favorite and has a great shot of going 16-0. With so many talented players going pro, most teams will be worse next year.

Here is a look at some of the losses:

Clemson - lost Booker and Potter; Purnell gone
Wake Forest - lost Smith, Aminu, Williams, McFarland, and Weaver (add top 10 recruiting class, new coach)
Maryland - lost Vasquez, Milbourne, and Hayes
Georgia Tech - lost Favors, Lawal, Peacock, and Bell
Miami - lost Collins, Dews, Thomas, and McGowan (return Grant and Scott)
UNC - lost Davis, Ginyard, and Thompson (add top 3 recruiting class)
Virginia - lost Landesberg and Meyinsse
FSU - lost Alabi? and Reid (Singleton returns, Snaer breakout season?)
Boston College - in turmoil

Virginia Tech doesn't lose much (assuming Delaney returns) and NC State should be a lot better w/ Harrow and maybe C.J. Leslie signing.

Who is going to be Duke's biggest challenge? Anyone else think we can and should go 16-0?

In a 64-team tournament, I can't see more than 4 teams making it from the ACC next yr. Fortunately or unfortunately, with the 96-team expansion, probably 8 teams make it.

NC State (yes, NC State), Va Tech and UNC will be good next year (UNC in particular)- and hard to say about Fla State. I expect a slip up for Duke- but certainly they will be the favorite in most games. The UNC games will likely be toss-ups. Va Tech and Fla State there will be tough but I am not sure of the schedule.

[NSDukeFan]

Actually we play State twice next year. So a trip to Raleigh and a tough game. There is also still a good chance that State gets CJ Leslie. They will be much better than they were this year.

Yeah, but they were a joke this year. Oops, wait a minute.
I agree that 16-0 is highly unlikely. I would be very happy with 2-0 vs. UNC.

[gumbomoop]

NC State (yes, NC State), Va Tech and UNC will be good next year (UNC in particular)- and hard to say about Fla State. I expect a slip up for Duke- but certainly they will be the favorite in most games. The UNC games will likely be toss-ups. Va Tech and Fla State there will be tough but I am not sure of the schedule.

Here's a link to ACC composite '10-'11 schedule. Unfortunately Duke gets both VaT and FSU only on road. http://www.theacc.com/auto_pdf/p_hot...el-three-years

My paranoia annually leads me to think Duke gets the shaft in this rotating unbalanced crap, and getting these 2 - who seem to be most logical to challenge UNC for 2d - only on road, seems our annual bad-luck-of-the-draw.

Last summer or so, more informed posters [temporarily] persuaded me that it's all just that, luck, no telling who'll be good any particular year.

With one exception: Duke. And given our good luck these days, it's perhaps boorish to complain too much about how tough our road will be.

Duke is the only team that could plausibly reach 14-2 [or better] next season. UNC is only other team that could plausibly reach 12-4. VaT and FSU might challenge UNC, and I guess NCSt and Miami are other likely top-half.

[arnie]

NC State (yes, NC State), Va Tech and UNC will be good next year (UNC in particular)- and hard to say about Fla State. I expect a slip up for Duke- but certainly they will be the favorite in most games. The UNC games will likely be toss-ups. Va Tech and Fla State there will be tough but I am not sure of the schedule.

The NCSU euphoria is fascinating to me. Yes they will have an upgrade in talent over a team that was near the bottom of the conference. But will that talent be coachable by a coach that hasn't proven he can win? Also, their talent will not match that at Duke or Carolina, and doesn't appear to exceed that of several other schools. They are assuming Harrow will be great. Don't know the answers to all these questions, but the Pack could easily be a .500 team next year. I think the Heels, FSU and VPI will all be better than the Pack.

[UrinalCake]

My paranoia annually leads me to think Duke gets the shaft in this rotating unbalanced crap, and getting these 2 - who seem to be most logical to challenge UNC for 2d - only on road, seems our annual bad-luck-of-the-draw.

I think our schedule this season was pretty favorable. Here's my unofficial breakdown, with final standing in parentheses:

TEAMS WE PLAYED TWICE
Maryland (2)
Clemson (5)
Georgia Tech (7)
Boston College (8)
UNC (10)

TEAMS WE PLAYED ONLY AT HOME
Virginia Tech (3)
FSU (4)
Wake Forest (6)

TEAMS WE PLAYED ONLY ON THE ROAD
NC State (9)
Virginia (11)
Miami (12)

So, the three teams we played only once on the road were among the bottom four teams. Meanwhile, the teams we played only at home were among the top six. Given how much better we played at home, this had to be an advantage.

Maryland is the team who has a legitimate gripe. Their road-only games were VT (3), Wake (6), and BC (8); their home-only games were GT (7), UNC (11), and Miami (12). Not to mention having to play three games in five days or something like that due to the blizzards. Imagine if they had won one more game or we had lost one more. Now we're not the #1 seed in the ACC tournament, we might not get a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, etc. etc. So I for one am happy with how things worked out 8-)

[roywhite]

This is highly debatable. Many in Winston would not agree with this assessment right now.

As far as opinions of Wake's new coach, I'll claim some knowledge of that since I live and work in the Winston-Salem area, and know a number of Deacon Club types. Wait and see with the new guy, but Dino set the bar pretty low.