Braves Baseball Updates

[ugadevil]

i was wondering what the braves baseball fans around here were thinking about possible free agents and where the club might go at the end of the season. personally, i'm not a huge andruw jones fan and don't know if they are going to make a big push to bring him back.
so, if they don't bring him back...how would anyone feel about the braves going after a big-time first baseman who can replace andruw's power? i like the idea of atlanta going and getting mark teixeira from the Rangers. he's due to be out of his contract in 2008 so the rangers might be looking to deal him. he's got some background w/ atlanta b/c he played at gt. i know the braves have thorman but they don't seem to be too committed to that.
still, that leaves a hole in center field if jones is gone. i like the idea of juan pierre out in center for the braves. i know he's not the gold glover that andruw is, but he's a solid hitter who can steal some bases and make some things happen in the lineup. i have no idea what his contract status is, but i like the idea of a lineup w/ juan pierre, kelly johnson, teixeira, jones, francoeur. any thoughts?

[feldspar]

Eh. Pierre is lightning fast, but I'm not in love with his defense. That would be a major drop off considering how good Andruw is in centerfield.

I'd love to see the Braves dump Mike Hampton's contract somehow and go after a first baseman like Teixiera or Adrian Gonzalez.

[CMS2478]

Eh. Pierre is lightning fast, but I'm not in love with his defense. That would be a major drop off considering how good Andruw is in centerfield.

I'd love to see the Braves dump Mike Hampton's contract somehow and go after a first baseman like Teixiera or Adrian Gonzalez.

I agree with you 100% that we need to dump Hampton. He hasn't been healthy in what 3 or 4 years and even when he is healthy he is mediocre. I have said for years we need a power-hitting 1B and if we get rid of Hampton and I feel confident Andruw is gone, then we should be able to afford one. Center field will have to be the hole to fill and I think we need someone fast and someone that has a high on-base-%, although I can't really think of any CF that meet that criteria, excepte Pierre.... and I'm too lazy to look it up.

[riverside6]

As a Cub fan who watched Pierre all last season, he isn't the answer. His adjusted OBP is truly pathetic. Basically his OBP is really low as is ~340 or ~350 at its best and throw in to that another 20 times getting caught stealing a year and he really isn't on base much. Also, his arm is weak, and that would make a difference in spacious Turner Field.

[Duvall]

Get rid of Hampton how, exactly?

[Channing]

the problem with going after a first baseman is this:

I believe we just lockde up McCann for 6 years. Plus, we have Saltalamachia, a top prospect in all of baseball, filling spot duty right now. It seems logical that he will step in as the next first baseman since McCann is settled in behind the plate - unless he will be used as trade bait, which I dont see since he is SO highly regarded, and so cheap for the time being.

I think our big money neds to be spent on another pitcher. After Smoltz and Hudson the starting pitching has essentially been awful this year at worst, streaky at best.

[Olympic Fan]

It's going to be interesting to see how much money the new Braves ownership is willing to put into the team. If they are willing to spend a reasonable amount, I'm confident that John Schuerholtz will put together a very competitive team.

They already start with a solid core of young players -- RF Franceour, C McCann and 2B Johnson are a great foundation. I also like Thorman's potential at first base, although I'm not as sure about him as the first three.

The key is how much more do you get from Chipper Jones and John Smoltz -- they're still star-quality players ... but both are getting old.

As for Andruw Jones ... I know he is off to a terrible start this season, but I would move heaven and earth to keep him. My reasons?

(1) He's the best defensive centerfielder of his generation of one of the best of all time.

(2) In his first 10 full seasons in the major leagues, he's averaged 33 home runs, 31 doubles, 101 RBIs, 98 runs scored with a .843 OPS.

(3) He just turned 30 years old in April ... he should have another 5-6 good years left. Normally, players' peak years run through age 32, then they show a gradual decline.

(4) His two previous seasons have been his best -- 92 home runs and 257 RBIs in 2005 and 2006.

Anybody can slump ... I simply can't believe that Jones has all of a sudden lost it at such an early age. It sometimes happens to pitchers, but barring injuries, it rarely happens to position players.

Jones has always been a streaky player. I'll be surprised if he doesn't bounce back and raise his numbers this season.

It's not my money, but I'd think that even if he doesn't finish with a vintage Andruw Jones year, he'd be worth gambling some big money to re-sign him.

Don't panic because he's had a bad month.

[ugadevil]

i agree that pierre's defensive ability is a liability. however, i was suprised to see that in 162 games last year for the cubs he didn't have one error and that in his entire career, he's never had many errors. i know that just b/c you dont get charged w/ an error doesn't mean you're a great player in the field, but he might not be as bad as people think. if it's a fly ball, he can move out of the way and let franceour throw the guy out pierre's also a career .300 hitter (althought it's dropping slightly) who will get you 50 stolen bases per year along w/ somewhere near 100 runs. i just think he could flourish w/ all the power that could be behind him in that lineup.
steven said something about getting a big-time pitcher. who do you have in mind? i like the direction of the bullpen and would prefer to see soriano take over the majority of the closing situations over wickman. i think soriano can come in to tight situations and strike someone out instead of depend on the ground ball. for a big starting pitcher, any possibility of getting justin verlander out of detroit?

[feldspar]

steven said something about getting a big-time pitcher. who do you have in mind? i like the direction of the bullpen and would prefer to see soriano take over the majority of the closing situations over wickman. i think soriano can come in to tight situations and strike someone out instead of depend on the ground ball. for a big starting pitcher, any possibility of getting justin verlander out of detroit?

Agreed on Soriano, and FWIW, I have a feeling we're going to start seeing the bullpen going in that direction soon.

[juise]

As a Dodger fan, I would be happy to pass along Juan Pierre to the Bravos. His offense has not been what we had hoped and his defense... well, it is what it is.

[feldspar]

His offense has not been what we had hoped

To be frank, what more were you hoping for?

He's right on par with his numbers for the last couple of years: 90ish runs, 1 or 2 HRs if you're lucky, 45ish RBI, .275 AVG, 50+ stolen bases.

[juise]

Well, first of all, I did not think that signing him was a good move to begin with. And when I said he was not what I had hoped for, I was referring more to wanting a better performance out of the lead-off spot. I was not so much comparing him to the Juan Pierre of years past.

But, if you want to go there, I would say that his average is 21 points lower than last year and his OBP 24 points lower than it has ever been. Beyond that, he's nowhere near where he was in 2004 and 2005. I'm not saying that I was expecting such a performance, but I know what's possible for him. And with a decent line-up behind him, the Dodgers need more from their lead-off hitter.

[Dukerati]

The hot rumor is that Andruw is going to the Nationals after this season. They have a ton of cap room and are looking for a player to build around... whether Andruw is that person or not is debatable.

As for what the Braves should do, I think they should:

1) Trade Andruw and Salty for prospects-- lots of good young pitching prospects (I look at our farm system and there are not a lot of good young arms. Moreover our top three starters (Smoltz, Hudson, and yes Hampton) are all old and/or injury-prone. For the long-term health and success of the club, we need to rejeuvanate our staff with some young studs. Maybe we could trade with Cincy for Homer Bailey? They get a star-to-be-catcher and we get a potential ace)

2) Sign a power first baseman AND a leadoff hitter. (Teixeria would be nice although he is extremely streaky which worries me. He also gets to hit in the jetstream park that is the Ranger's "stadium". I'd prefer Adrian who is probably cheaper and performs at Petco which is pitcher-friendly. The leadoff question is a much more difficult question to answer. I'd want a fast (watching Reyes tear us apart has given me a serious case of speed-envy), young CF who prides himself on defense-first with developing power. Someone like Felix Pie of the Cubs.)

[Dukerati]

I missed Olympic Fan's post about reasons to keep Andruw originally and he definitely brings up some good points... but here is why I would trade him:

1) I don't know if anyone here reads Baseball Prospectus but they try to measure things like defense quantitatively and Andruw's defense has been slipping on their charts dramatically over the last year and a half. He may very well HAVE BEEN the greatest defensive CF of the last ten years but I do not think there is that much distinguishing Andruw with someone like Carlos Beltran at this point...

2) Andruw has no where to go but down. As great as Andruw has been, the projections for him were even higher. It's disheartening to see the low average year-after-year and undisciplined hitting to go along with it. Sure his power has spiked the last two years but so have his strikeouts and in both seasons, Andruw had hot streaks that counted for a significant portion of his HRs with prolonged slumps mixed in all too frequently.

3) What is going on with his swing this year? He drops his knee basically to the ground and swings wildly at the ball. Not only is it disturbingly ungraceful, it's very long and prone to inconsistency. After 10 years, you would think Andruw would have developed more as a hitter... I love Andruw, but I am terrified, TERRIFIED, when he is up to bat with a runner on third and less than two outs. All Braves fans know what I am talking about here. His proclivity towards strikeouts, weak grounders, and pop-ups is disheartening and I would rather have almost anyone else in our starting lineup bat in that crucial RBI situations. I should not feel this way about our 2nd best offensive player but I do.

4) Andruw is going to be very very expensive to sign. Can the Braves afford to tie up their limited budget with Andruw? Right now, he is a relative bargain. If we decide to resign him, we will almost certainly not be able to add any good free agents. Our farm system is not good enough to keep us at the top right now. A strong argument could be made towards signing a cheaper alternative such as Adrian Gonzalez and still having money left over to play around with.

[Channing]

What about Willie Harris as the CF of the future if we dont keep Andruw. He is fast, looks to be a prototypical lead off guy, then maybe we can try and get another bat in LF. There tend to be more bats for the corner outfield spots anyway.

[ugadevil]

well the timing for this discussion was great. i say the braves need a solid lead off hitter and a first baseman w/ power. so of course tonight the first baseman hits a home run and the lead off man gets a couple hits, one of which was a triple! what do i know?
maybe next we should talk about the questionable starting pitching at the back of the rotation?

[Dukerati]

What about Willie Harris as the CF of the future if we dont keep Andruw. He is fast, looks to be a prototypical lead off guy, then maybe we can try and get another bat in LF. There tend to be more bats for the corner outfield spots anyway.

I hesitate to put the "future" tag on someone who is nearing thirty years of age, has five plus seasons of major league experience, and whose best season previously was a .262 batting average with an on-base percentage of .342. Not strong numbers for a future leadoff guy. In addition, speed doesn't necessarily correlate to good CF defense (see Juan Pierre).

As for Kelly Johnson, I see him as a vital part of our future but not as a leadoff guy. If you don't have speed (Kelly is fast but not leadoff fast) when you are in your young 20s, you will certainly not have speed as you age. He will grow into some increased power and I see him as a potentially great #2 or #5 hitter.

The back end of our rotation is HORRIBLE and there is NO way we can sweep the Mets

[Olympic Fan]

Speed is the single most over-rated quality in a leadoff hitter, just as stolen base totals are the single most over-rated offensive stat in the game (even more than batting average).

Speed is extremely valuable on defense, but the key quality in a leadoff hitter is ability to reach base -- OBP.

Juan Pierre is much faster than Johnson ... so far this season, he has 16 stolen bases (and 5 caught stealing) to Johnson's four steals (and one caught stealing).

But Pierre also has a truely dreadful .296 OBP. He's scored 27 runs in 46 games.

(PS: Pierre is exactly the same age as Andruw Jones and has a significantly smaller range factor per nine innings -- 2.46<2.90 ... as for Jones slowing down in the outfield, his range per nine innings this year is the second-highest of his career, although he's usually in the 2.8 range ... Carlos Beltran? Well, he has an excellent 2.81 range per 9 innings -- excellent but less than Andruw ... Let's see -- Jim Edmonds, the SportsCenter highlight hero, has been at 2.50 the last two years and is an 2.32 this season ... Torri Hunter, the best defensive CF in the other league is the one who is fading -- after years close to 3.0 RF, he's been in the 2.5 range since 2004)

To get back to the leadoff hitter comparison, Johnson has a .390 OPB and has scored 33 runs in 44 games.

Now, Reyes is probably the best leadoff man in the league right now -- but so far this season he has a .396 OBP and has scored 37 runs in 43 games ... only slightly better than Johnson. (Four more runs in one less game is a good edge, but somewhat related to the Mets' better production behind him).

Believe me, the Braves have problems, but the leadoff man is not one of them. And even the prospect of replacing Thorman with a better first baseman should be pretty far down the list.

The Braves need immediate help at the back end of their rotation and (maybe it's a decade of instability) I'm still not 100 percent sold on the bullpen. Long-term, they do have to get younger in their starting rotation.

Those are FAR bigger problems that improving their leadoff hitter or upgrading at first base.

[Dukerati]

Great point about speed vs. OBP Olympic Fan. I agree that OBP is a much more important factor than speed but that doesn't mean speed should not play a significant role in determining who your leadoff man is. If you look at the top leadoff men around the league, they are all very very fast. Runs are precious and the ability to score from first on a double should not be discounted. Ichiro, Grady Sizmore, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez (before he got moved) were the first names that came to mind when I thought of what you want your leadoff guy to be.

As for the "problems" at first base and leadoff hitter, I again agree with Olympic Fan that the pitching is a far more pressing matter. However, my proposed solution (trading Andruw and Salty) opened up holes in the lineup that then needed to be addressed. If we could bolster/revamp our pitching staff without losing that power (i.e. spend more money) I would be all for it but I think that is unrealistic. If we lose Andruw, we are going to have a power gap, a gap that could be ameliorated by acquiring a big-time first baseman and moving Kelly down in the order IMO.

[feldspar]

Perhaps a better way of saying it would be to say that speed without OBP is null. But, if you have OBP and speed, watch out. You're going to have a dangerous lineup. In that scenario, I don't think speed is overrated at all. You have to put runners in scoring position.