2012 Basketball Recruiting Thread

[dukedoc]

However, I have been following Amile's recruitment and the timetables that have been given made it sound like a decision was close. Given the fact that he was on campus this weekend, I thought a face to face commitment could be a possibility.

One possibility is a private commitment face-to-face while on campus and a delayed public announcement at the family's convenience, perhaps during the following week. I have no idea whether this is what is happening, but it's a possibility, I think.

[JasonEvans]

One possibility is a private commitment face-to-face while on campus and a delayed public announcement at the family's convenience, perhaps during the following week. I have no idea whether this is what is happening, but it's a possibility, I think.

And, if that is what happened, we would hear nothing until Amile began telling folks about the private conversation. Ain't no way Duke/K would leak anything about the commitment.

-Jason "give it time, people... we will hear something soon, I imagine" Evans

[-bdbd]

And, if that is what happened, we would hear nothing until Amile began telling folks about the private conversation. Ain't no way Duke/K would leak anything about the commitment.

-Jason "give it time, people... we will hear something soon, I imagine" Evans

HA!!
Jason, you get the sense, maybe, that folks are just a little anxious for some new news on the recruiting front???

Given the size of the class to date (1) and the uncertainty about potential departures, and some very specific perceived needs, I can't say that this anxiety is at all surprising.. That said, I have been a little surprised that more "sightings" details hasn't come out regarding this past weekend.

[SupaDave]

One possibility is a private commitment face-to-face while on campus and a delayed public announcement at the family's convenience, perhaps during the following week. I have no idea whether this is what is happening, but it's a possibility, I think.

The return of the silent gerbil!!

[MChambers]

The return of the silent gerbil!!

I think it's a violent gerbil.

[gumbomoop]

I've imported the 3 tag-quote posts below from the Shabazz thread, as they concern Amile Jefferson rather than Shabazz.

My comments here assume 2 things: Mason leaves, Amile comes to Duke. Yes, these are assumptions, but reasonable, not wild, speculations. It's also the Monday before tourney-time, so a small debate about a possible future Devil seems inoffensive enough as a time-filler.

Amile, who brings a baseline game and willing feisty D, might get an early chance to play some. If he's even a little better than "advertised," he'd be competing with one R-Fr, Marshall, who must prove his readiness, with another, Alex, who must prove his adaptability, and with Josh, who must prove he can win major minutes on the interior. Miles's and Mason's departure opens up a whole lot of minutes.

Amile is certainly not a "power" forward. But he is a baseline player with an intriguingly different game. And his handle is already good, I think, which adds a dimension that Josh hasn't yet shown. Don't know how "smart" Amile is on D, nor how quickly he would "get" what K requires. But his slight frame, by itself, won't eliminate him from consideration.

I'm just not quite sold on this, though. I mean, he's reallllly skinny (and he's not a way-above-the-rim player like Henson/Davis, which can offset that). Offensively, he'd be the most naturally talented post player we have next year. However, I'm not sure if he'd be good enough to warrant a very high usage rate on O. And if that's the case, I can't really see him jumping Kelly, Marshall, or Hairston; I really think he's going to get past a certain threshold, strength-wise, before he can hold his own on defense and the boards. I also think Murphy would be ahead of him if it came down to sacrificing size/strength for offense, just because he's probably a better, more versatile all-around player at this point.

Henson was the 5th ranked recruit, nationally. Amile is 20th. Huge difference when it comes to expectations of being able to step in and contribute immediately. If Henson was raw enough to be ranked in the 20s, his skinniness may well have held him back for a year.

As I noted at beginning of this post, this is probably fairly described as a minor debate. My point of view is not that Amile would come in and clearly jump ahead of everyone but Ryan as one of our 2 interior players. Rather, I contend that, given (1) the wide-openness of the competition for interior-minutes next year, (2) the inexperience of Alex and Marshall [both of whom, btw, I firmly believe will be in the rotation], (3) the lack of proven experience by Josh, and (4) Amile's different and intriguing skill-set and baseline game - given all these factors, Amile has a chance to play 7-10 mpg next year. Not 20 mpg. Does 7-10 mpg constitute "in the rotation"? Josh is at 7.6 mpg this season; is he in the rotation? Marginally? OK.

This season, K has gone with 3 interior players and Josh as a marginal contributor. But Miles, Mason, and Ryan all entered this season as very experienced, compared with Alex, Marshall, and even Josh for 2012-2013. Although it does seem unlikely that K would play 5 guys in the 2 interior spots, I'm intrigued enough by Amile's different-ness to think it possible that Amile might make an impression that warrants some early-season floor-time. I do not deny Greg_Newton's plausible points about O-usage and strength-threshold. Nor do I discount Kedsy's point that Amile is not Henson.

Maybe I could persuade G_N and K [come to think of it ... Krzyzewski, not Kedsy, as Krzyzewski is much more reasonable than is Kedsy] of this: pre-ACC mpg for 4/5 = Ryan 27, Alex 18, Josh 15, Marshall 12, Amile 8. I would then concede that by ACC schedule the 4/5 minutes go mostly to 4 guys, and that Amile, unless he surprises very positively, moves down to just spot minutes.

[Kedsy]

Maybe I could persuade G_N and K [come to think of it ... Krzyzewski, not Kedsy, as Krzyzewski is much more reasonable than is Kedsy] of this: pre-ACC mpg for 4/5 = Ryan 27, Alex 18, Josh 15, Marshall 12, Amile 8. I would then concede that by ACC schedule the 4/5 minutes go mostly to 4 guys, and that Amile, unless he surprises very positively, moves down to just spot minutes.

As far as Amile's minutes go, I think it's possible that he could get 8 mpg in the pre-conference schedule and then drop down to spot minutes in January.

Whether that actually happens depends to a great extent on Rasheed and Austin. If Austin stays and/or if Rasheed proves good enough to get 20+ minutes, then I think Alex plays almost exclusively at PF, and I'm not sure how many minutes are there for Amile, even in the early season. Think about it -- Seth/Andre/Tyler/Quinn/Austin and/or Rasheed -- all guys worthy of 20+ minutes and at least a couple of guys who could get 30+ minutes. At that point, Michael becomes the guy who plays some SF and some PF, Alex plays almost exclusively PF, and Josh and Marshall get to clean up the big-man-minute scraps. Hard to find more than garbage time minutes for Amile in that rotation.

Even in that scenario, Amile could approach your 8 minutes a game. Michael played 92 minutes in our first 14 games this season, which comes out to 6.6 mpg. My guess is Amile will be in the same range.

On the more important point, I refuse to comment on whether I am more or less reasonable than Coach Krzyzewski.

[gumbomoop]

If Austin stays and/or if Rasheed proves good enough to get 20+ minutes, then I think Alex plays almost exclusively at PF, and I'm not sure how many minutes are there for Amile, even in the early season. Think about it -- Seth/Andre/Tyler/Quinn/Austin and/or Rasheed -- all guys worthy of 20+ minutes and at least a couple of guys who could get 30+ minutes. At that point, Michael becomes the guy who plays some SF and some PF, Alex plays almost exclusively PF, and Josh and Marshall get to clean up the big-man-minute scraps. Hard to find more than garbage time minutes for Amile in that rotation.

I agree with this, and started to discuss the impact of Austin's returning - as if any of us would much worry about how his return might cut down on anyone's minutes. Anyhow, IMO, you raise just the right point about how Austin's return would probably mean Michael actually plays a bit on the interior.

The return of either Mason or Austin will eat up lots of minutes. Both return, whole lots. Neither returns, and K - check that - both Ks have their work cut out.

[CDu]

I agree with this, and started to discuss the impact of Austin's returning - as if any of us would much worry about how his return might cut down on anyone's minutes. Anyhow, IMO, you raise just the right point about how Austin's return would probably mean Michael actually plays a bit on the interior.

The return of either Mason or Austin will eat up lots of minutes. Both return, whole lots. Neither returns, and K - check that - both Ks have their work cut out.

I actually don't know that Rivers' return would result in Gbinije playing more at the PF spot unless Mason leaves AND we don't get Jefferson. I think the more likely scenario is that one of the guard/wing guys will see his minutes get squeezed. In that scenario, we'd have an additional wing player coming in (two if you count Murphy) and none leaving. And in the post, you'd have 1-2 leaving and 1-2 coming in (if you count Marshall and if we get Jefferson). I'd expect Murphy to be the guy seeing more of the PF minutes (probably having to play pretty much exclusively there) along with Marshall, Kelly, and Hairston. We have rarely played deeper than 4 bigs this year, and I don't know that we'll see it substantially more often next year.

But we're going to be in a situation next year that is very complicated in terms of minutes. At the very least, we'll have 10 scholarship players looking for regular minutes (most of whom are high-profile collegians or were high-profile recruits), and that's assuming Rivers and Mason both go and we land no additional recruits. I think the more likely scenario is that we'll be at 11 or 12 scholarship players. Right now, we barely have minutes for 9 regular rotation players (with the 9th playing 5-10mpg). Someone is is going to get squeezed out regardless. If either Mason or Rivers returns, the number of players getting squeezed will increase. I don't want to speculate on who would get squeezed in such scenarios, but it's going to be somebody.

[-bdbd]

Not interested in restarting an old argument. But playing minutes for the bigs are going to depend a lot on who's willing to bang inside for rebounds, play physical D, and score some occasional interior buckets. If MP2 leaves then we have a real vulnerability on the interior (with RK as our only returning big with significant minutes). And, setting aside potential capabilities and/or physical growth for the moment, banging hasn't been RK's biggest emphasis to date.

So, I think the HOPE is that MP3 or AM are bulking up and getting good interior reps in practice this year and over the summer. If neither of them is proves able, then AJ certainly could earn more minutes than is being discussed here by being willing to stick his nose in there inside, play tough interior defense and grab some boards. That said, he's going to need to add a little weight/muscle to a pretty thin frame in order to bang with the likes of Henson and Shaq Clear. Hopefully, at least one of these three proves capable of earning interior time alongside RK.

In the meantime, I'm all for "the more options, the better."

[CDu]

Not interested in restarting an old argument. But playing minutes for the bigs are going to depend a lot on who's willing to bang inside for rebounds, play physical D, and score some occasional interior buckets. If MP2 leaves then we have a real vulnerability on the interior (with RK as our only returning big with significant minutes). And, setting aside potential capabilities and/or physical growth for the moment, banging hasn't been RK's biggest emphasis to date.

So, I think the HOPE is that MP3 or AM are bulking up and getting good interior reps in practice this year and over the summer. If neither of them is proves able, then AJ certainly could earn more minutes than is being discussed here by being willing to stick his nose in there inside, play tough interior defense and grab some boards. That said, he's going to need to add a little weight/muscle to a pretty thin frame in order to bang with the likes of Henson and Shaq Clear. Hopefully, at least one of these three proves capable of earning interior time alongside RK.

In the meantime, I'm all for "the more options, the better."

Agree with everything you said here. Right now, we have two possible returnees that have shown a willingness/propensity to mix it up inside: Mason and Hairston. If Mason goes, that leaves Hairston, and he's far from being a proven 20+ mpg contributor. If Mason returns, that greatly simplifies things on the interior.

I also completely agree with your "the more options, the better" stance. It's just that that stance will necessarily result in some players taking a lot of DNP-CDs.

[ncexnyc]

Sorry, but I couldn’t resist stealing a line from the old Yardbirds song. It’s extremely hard to make a halfway educated guess on what will happen next year due to the status of Mason and Austin, as well as the recruit situation.
Based on what’s transpired this season, it seems that with a larger number of scholarship players more playing time will be spread out amongst the kids, especially if we have a repeat of this year where nobody was able to show a discernible separation between their peers talent wise.
As always, what a kid brings to the table when compared to his peers determines whether he starts , is a sub, or sits. A team that returns Austin, Mason, and Seth will be quite potent offensively. The possible addition of Bazz would make this an extremely potent offensive team. There would be quite a few players on the outside looking in, but then again maybe not. Would a line-up of Austin, Bazz, Mason, and Seth be able to carry Josh as purely a defensive, (think Lance Thomas) player? I do believe it’s very possible. Or maybe Ryan ups his game another notch or two and keeps his current role. Throw Alex and Marshall into the mix and things could shake out any number of ways.
What about the PG situation? Are those duties split between Tyler and Quinn or does Seth or Austin’s handle improve to the point where they could be considered our PG?
SF is a position which has been a real problem for us this year. Many believe the addition of Bazz would automatically solve that problem, but what will Dre and Silent G have to say about that with their play next year?
And last but not least, let me mention Rasheed, who is a highly ranked recruit, currently the only one we have on board. How will he fit into all of this?
The next couple of months should be very interesting and some of the uncertainty will be put to rest. Some questions won’t be answered until the season starts and as we saw this year well into the season.

[wsb3]

I may well be out of my mind but I just don't see MP2 leaving.

[JasonEvans]

Given the size of the class to date (1)

Call me crazy, but I see the Class of 2012 as being 3 players large at this point.

-Jason

[sagegrouse]

In response to congratulations on a good season, K told the ESPN announcers prior to the Wake game (I think), "We're going to be really good next year." Why would he say that if he thought he would lose two of his best three players (Austin and Mason) with only one new player committed?

FWIW I can't remember Austin ever saying or implying that he would be one-and-done.

sagegrouse

[MaxAMillion]

In response to congratulations on a good season, K told the ESPN announcers prior to the Wake game (I think), "We're going to be really good next year." Why would he say that if he thought he would lose two of his best three players (Austin and Mason) with only one new player committed?

FWIW I can't remember Austin ever saying or implying that he would be one-and-done.

sagegrouse

Coaches tend to always be optimistic about their team. You ever heard a coach say we are going to be mediocre next season?

[sagegrouse]

Coaches tend to always be optimistic about their team. You ever heard a coach say we are going to be mediocre next season?

But it was totally unsolicited, and as related by Elmore and Patrick (I think), the comment was meant as a comparison to this year's team.

Yeah, I know. I am whistling past the graveyard about early departures from Duke, but I can whistle for several more weeks, can't I?

-- sage

[MCFinARL]

Call me crazy, but I see the Class of 2012 as being 3 players large at this point.

-Jason

Well, in a sense it is already 3 players large at this point, because it will include two redshirt freshmen as well as Rasheed Sulaimon. But I'm guessing that isn't what you meant. Hope you are right, crazy or not.

In response to congratulations on a good season, K told the ESPN announcers prior to the Wake game (I think), "We're going to be really good next year." Why would he say that if he thought he would lose two of his best three players (Austin and Mason) with only one new player committed?

FWIW I can't remember Austin ever saying or implying that he would be one-and-done.

sagegrouse

I don't think Austin has ever said he WOULD be one-and-done, but IIRC he at least implied, coming into college, that one-and-done was an option to consider. Don't have time to find a link, though, so I could be remembering incorrectly.

[Duke79UNLV77]

In response to congratulations on a good season, K told the ESPN announcers prior to the Wake game (I think), "We're going to be really good next year." Why would he say that if he thought he would lose two of his best three players (Austin and Mason) with only one new player committed?

FWIW I can't remember Austin ever saying or implying that he would be one-and-done.

sagegrouse

From the context, it was something Bzdelik said about his team. The next statement by the announcers was that they were already pretty good being in the game against Duke right then.

[sagegrouse]

From the context, it was something Bzdelik said about his team. The next statement by the announcers was that they were already pretty good being in the game against Duke right then.

Did I totally misunderstand the comments? Oh my gosh! Now I'll gnaw my fingernails down to the nubs until this is resolved. -- sagegrouse