2012 Basketball Recruiting Thread

[Chicken Little]

If that happens, we would find ourselves in the same situation Kansas presently finds themselves in, having missed out on several bigs recently. I would have to imagine that we focus on any 3-star recruits we haven't made offers to yet, and regroup for next year's crop of bigs.

[G man]

If that happens, we would find ourselves in the same situation Kansas presently finds themselves in, having missed out on several bigs recently. I would have to imagine that we focus on any 3-star recruits we haven't made offers to yet, and regroup for next year's crop of bigs.

I think we would be in much better position than Kansas due to our returning roster, but it would hurt a little bit. It would make for a couple of tougher years, but I do not think we would be in Kansas current position.

[-bdbd]

Let's say Mitch McGary signs with Michigan, Tony Parker signs with Ohio State and Shabazz Muhammad signs with UCLA.....what then? Do we have any other potential recruits for 2012? Could it really be a class of one (Rasheed Sulaimon)? If so, that would be a crushing blow. I would be stunned if that happened coming off a national championship in 2010 and the recent signing of such heralded nationally-known stars as Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers--not to mention the second-ranked class in the nation in 2011. I really think all three (McGary, Parker, and Muhammad) would be stars at Duke and would benefit by being coached by Coach K and his great staff. They are all likely to make it to the NBA regardless of which school they attend, so why not go to Duke? Duke has the highest level of achievement on the basketball court of any school in the nation over the past 40 years and yet Duke is not just a basketball factory, but is a uniquely special place to get an education while playing at the highest level of athletic competition. If none of them come to Duke I would really start to wonder exactly how this could possibly have happened. Yes, I know, they all have great options, but how could any of those options be better than what Duke has to offer?

Be careful. The Duke haters like to stereotype Duke grads/fans as "spoiled rich kids with a sense of entitlement" (they frequently point to Duke's very high tuition, etc - to which I respond, "In my case that meant just the opposite - because I just graduated that much more in debt!"). There's no guarantee or "entitlement" to ANY of these terrific kids. Great students and players pick schools other than Duke every day. Not every High School senior - especially BB players - have the exact same motivations/priorities as you or I. The kid is not "wrong" if they choose a Michigan or an OSU or a UCLA - they just prioritized and chose differently than we might have liked. Maybe the kid likes the proximity to home. Maybe he prefers the mix/chemistry of players or student body more at another school. Or maybe a certain school has the exact major that he seeks, and Duke does not. Maybe he likes the "system" they play elsewhere or is motivated to "be the star who resurrects a downtrodden program." Or even he just happens to like the coaches better at the other place. Hey - we're in the mix for these three really awesome top-20 caliber players, and it is ALWAYS possible that none of them choose us. It has happened - early in K's tenure there was a year where Duke came in second place for about FIVE McD AA-type players all in one year! That said, I doubt it this year. I'd bet a bunch that we land at least one of them.

Also, the Duke staff usually has a secondary list of recruits who we're "staying in touch with," but have not offered. Think, "top-60, but not top-20." So if that bad scenario unfolded, I think you'd see a couple of new names appear who haven't been mentioned a whole lot in discussions here so far. FWIW, some very prominent Duke success stories have come from guys who weren't our original targets at their position/year - guys like David Henderson, Corey Magette, etc.

[Billy Dat]

Let's say Mitch McGary signs with Michigan, Tony Parker signs with Ohio State and Shabazz Muhammad signs with UCLA.....what then? Do we have any other potential recruits for 2012? Could it really be a class of one (Rasheed Sulaimon)? If so, that would be a crushing blow. I would be stunned if that happened coming off a national championship in 2010 and the recent signing of such heralded nationally-known stars as Kyrie Irving and Austin Rivers--not to mention the second-ranked class in the nation in 2011. I really think all three (McGary, Parker, and Muhammad) would be stars at Duke and would benefit by being coached by Coach K and his great staff. They are all likely to make it to the NBA regardless of which school they attend, so why not go to Duke? Duke has the highest level of achievement on the basketball court of any school in the nation over the past 40 years and yet Duke is not just a basketball factory, but is a uniquely special place to get an education while playing at the highest level of athletic competition. If none of them come to Duke I would really start to wonder exactly how this could possibly have happened. Yes, I know, they all have great options, but how could any of those options be better than what Duke has to offer?

Because they are teenagers and maybe they liked the girls at a different school, or the uniform colors, or they got along better with the kids on the team, or it was sunny the day they visited and it was cloudy at Duke.

Obviously, you hope more thought goes into it than that, but you never know.

Bottom line, being part of the Duke Basketball program is extremely intense...I know others are too, but Duke's seems at a different level...and that's not for everybody.

[Faison1]

It's not like the cupboard is bare. We just brought in a 5-man recruiting class with some good talent in it, beyond that of Austin Rivers.

Also, Josh stands to improve, as does Marshall Plumlee. Most likely we lose 3 guys after this year, with Miles, Mason, and Austin going pro. When you add Sheed, that's a net gain of 3 guys over 2 years. And everyone knows K likes a short bench.

So, if we don't get any of our 3 "top-priorities", we're still in pretty good shape. It's the following year that needs some serious attention, when all of our current Juniors will have graduated.

[MCFinARL]

That seems to contradict the article linked from the DBR main page, in which TP is quoted as saying he doesn't have a leader. That article is dated 10/31 but perhaps it's an older quote.

I think some of these kids have been well trained to say they don't have a favorite until the last possible minute--and it seems like a good strategy. Stuff happens, and your favorite one day may not look as good to you, or may not want you, the next day--why say anything that would encourage your other options to give up on you before you need to?

Because they are teenagers and maybe they liked the girls at a different school, or the uniform colors, or they got along better with the kids on the team, or it was sunny the day they visited and it was cloudy at Duke.

Obviously, you hope more thought goes into it than that, but you never know.

Bottom line, being part of the Duke Basketball program is extremely intense...I know others are too, but Duke's seems at a different level...and that's not for everybody.

Based on my experience taking two kids to visit colleges (not athletes), this is completely true. My older kid was especially influenced by tour guides--if she liked the student leading the tour, the school moved up the list; if she didn't, it was scratched. Efforts to suggest this wasn't the best method of making decisions were unpersuasive. A friend's son refused even to get out of the car at a couple of schools because he didn't like the way they looked.

And, really, even if these seem like silly reasons, who's to say for sure they are wrong? Kids know what they know. In the end, a lot of these choices come down to gut feelings, and there are a lot of good schools, and good basketball programs, out there. Agree with you and bdbd that it's presumptuous to think kids who don't choose Duke are making a mistake.

[Olympic Fan]

If Duke's recruiting class of 2012 turns out to be Rasheed Sulaimon and nobody else, it will be disappointing, but hardly crushing.

We don't know what we'd have in 2012-13 until we see who goes pro -- Miles is the only one we know will be gone, although Austin Rivers is likely and Mason is a strong possibility. I guess there is a remote chance that Seth or even Ryan might have a breakout year and go.

Still, what's left?

In the backcourt, we probably have Seth, Tyler, Quinn, Andre and a great addition in Rasheed. If this year's backcourt is the best in the nation as Luke Winn thinks, wouldn't next year's be better? Okay, Rasheed isn't rated quite as highly as Austin, but he's very good the other four guys would be a year older and more experienced. That's pretty solid.

We'd still have Alex Murphy and Michael Gbinije on the wing. As sophomores, I'd expect a lot more for both than I do as freshman.

Up front, we still have senior Ryan Kelly, junior Josh Hairston and sophomore or redshirt freshman Marshall Plumlee. That's not exactly chopped liver.

However, looking a year ahead and speculating, I think to be a championship caliber team, we'll need one of three things to happen: (1) either Parker signs or (2) McGary signs or (3) Mason returns for his senior year. If none happen, I think we'll still be a very good team in 2012-13 -- and I think the odds are good that at least one of those three breaks in our favor.

As for Shabazz Munhammad, I'd LOVE to have him because he's a great player. But I don't see him as a guy Duke has got to have. Need-wise, Parker or McGary would help us more.

If K does strike out completely, it's possible that he might add a three-star big man for depth, but I think it much more likely that he'll save the scholarship and focus on the Class of 2013.

[jimsumner]

Let me add a couple of points to OF's post. I've talked to Seth a number of times for an article elsewhere and he seems pretty sure he'll be back next season.

Also, in the event of no-Mason, no-Parker, no-McGary next season, I would expect Murphy to see a fair amount of PT at the 4. It's not like K hasn't been able to adequately utilize players with his size and skill set in the role of a mobile, face-up 4.

[MChambers]

Let me add a couple of points to OF's post. I've talked to Seth a number of times for an article elsewhere and he seems pretty sure he'll be back next season.

Also, in the event of no-Mason, no-Parker, no-McGary next season, I would expect Murphy to see a fair amount of PT at the 4. It's not like K hasn't been able to adequately utilize players with his size and skill set in the role of a mobile, face-up 4.

Even if Duke doesn't have any of those three, or Shabazz, it will still be a darned good team.

[Steven43]

What I really meant by saying that it would be a 'crushing blow' to get neither Tony Parker, Mitch McGary nor Shabazz Muhammad was that it would be a huge blow to ME as a Duke fan. I have been following every last tidbit of information I could possibly find about each of them from the very beginning and it would just be such an empty feeling not to have any of them wear Duke blue. Similar to the way I felt about Deandre Daniels and Roscoe Smith when they decided to go to schools other than Duke and how I felt about Tyler Adams backing out of his Duke commitment. I was also disappointed when we apparently gave up on both Rodney Purvis and Alex Poythress. I guess because we are competing every year with UNC, Kentucky, Florida, Arizona, UConn, etc. for the best recruits in the nation that when we lose out on almost all of our priority targets and those schools end up getting a bunch of their top recruits it feels like a loss before we even take the court. I want Duke to be the best college basketball program in the nation and to do so we have to get our share of high-level recruits. Getting players in the 40-100 range nationally is nice, but it doesn't win national championships nor does it beat Carolina consistently. So if we end up with only Rasheed Sulaimon--who is apparently a great player and a fine young man--for 2012, it will seem incomplete. And it will also make me wonder about our viability with the top-level recruits we are trying to get for 2013. Things can turn quickly in recruiting. One day your program is perceived as sure-fire top 5 nationally and after a couple of down years of recruiting you're struggling to be top 15. It could happen. Look what happened to Bob Knight during his last 5-plus years at Indiana. I really don't think that is going to happen to Duke, but it would be reassuring if we could get Tony, Mitch or Shabazz to come to Duke in 2012 alongside Rasheed. I'm confident each of them would be very glad they chose Duke. I can only hope they see it that way as well.

[MartyClark]

What I really meant by saying that it would be a 'crushing blow' to get neither Tony Parker, Mitch McGary nor Shabazz Muhammad was that it would be a huge blow to ME as a Duke fan. I have been following every last tidbit of information I could possibly find about each of them from the very beginning and it would just be such an empty feeling not to have any of them wear Duke blue. Similar to the way I felt about Deandre Daniels and Roscoe Smith when they decided to go to schools other than Duke and how I felt about Tyler Adams backing out of his Duke commitment. I was also disappointed when we apparently gave up on both Rodney Purvis and Alex Poythress. I guess because we are competing every year with UNC, Kentucky, Florida, Arizona, UConn, etc. for the best recruits in the nation that when we lose out on almost all of our priority targets and those schools end up getting a bunch of their top recruits it feels like a loss before we even take the court. I want Duke to be the best college basketball program in the nation and to do so we have to get our share of high-level recruits. Getting players in the 40-100 range nationally is nice, but it doesn't win national championships nor does it beat Carolina consistently. So if we end up with only Rasheed Sulaimon--who is apparently a great player and a fine young man--for 2012, it will seem incomplete. And it will also make me wonder about our viability with the top-level recruits we are trying to get for 2013. Things can turn quickly in recruiting. One day your program is perceived as sure-fire top 5 nationally and after a couple of down years of recruiting you're struggling to be top 15. It could happen. Look what happened to Bob Knight during his last 5-plus years at Indiana. I really don't think that is going to happen to Duke, but it would be reassuring if we could get Tony, Mitch or Shabazz to come to Duke in 2012 alongside Rasheed. I'm confident each of them would be very glad they chose Duke. I can only hope they see it that way as well.

I hate all this recruiting discussion but I'm drawn to it like a moth to a flame. I don't have a good feeling about McGary or Parker. I think it is a significant set back if we don't get one of them.

[dukedoc]

Neal Nieves from C2C has apparently confirmed that Tony (as expected) will be announcing next week. I haven't seen it in writing, just second-hand twittering. This would, I think, go along with expectations that he would announce before his season begins next week. Mitch this week. Tony, next. Hoping to bat at least .500.

[BD80]

I hate all this recruiting discussion but I'm drawn to it like a moth to a flame. I don't have a good feeling about McGary or Parker. ...

Feelings? When the hell did we start sharing feelings? Us old farts just ain't comfortable with feelings!

[Troublemaker]

We need Tony. Shabazz would be nice but Duke has plenty of talented wings already. McGary seems to be a heavy Michigan lean.

Gotta have Tony. The staff has spent so much time and resources recruiting him. He would fit in perfectly with next year's team, especially if MP2 leaves as expected. Then Tony would allow Duke to have national title contenders his sophomore and perhaps junior years as well as a talented, skilled scorer with soft hands that can be the centerpiece to an offense. This one's huge and it's coming down to the wire. I'm becoming cautiously optimistic.

[J4Kop99]

I do think this would be a solid blow to coach K and co. if they are not able to sign either TP or MM. Yes they would still have enough talent to compete at a high level next year (with or without Mason) but there would be little depth and not too much big-minute experience.

I also would really like to see a top-ranked big man like MM, play in the Duke system. The last time that happened it was with McBob and that didn't end too well... more so because of him than anything else.

[airowe]

I think it's probably best to move on to Tony Parker at this point. Give it another week and he and Mitch will have made their decisions...

[rotogod00]

I think it's probably best to move on to Tony Parker at this point. Give it another week and he and Mitch will have made their decisions...

So the writing's clearly on the wall with McGary, huh airowe? That's too bad. He would have been a really nice get.

And I agree with several on here that it'd be a significant blow to K and Duke if we can't ink one of the targeted bigs in this class. It's obviously a recognized need, seeing how much time and effort the staff has put into landing these guys, and not to get one would reaffirm the growing belief that we just can't close the deal on top bigs. However fair or unfair that is.

[JasonEvans]

What I really meant by saying that it would be a 'crushing blow' to get neither Tony Parker, Mitch McGary nor Shabazz Muhammad was that it would be a huge blow to ME as a Duke fan. I have been following every last tidbit of information I could possibly find about each of them from the very beginning and it would just be such an empty feeling not to have any of them wear Duke blue.

Trust me, you have put a lot less effort and emotion into this than K and his staff. I think you'll live if we fail to sign one of these young men

I guess because we are competing every year with UNC, Kentucky, Florida, Arizona, UConn, etc. for the best recruits in the nation that when we lose out on almost all of our priority targets and those schools end up getting a bunch of their top recruits it feels like a loss before we even take the court. I want Duke to be the best college basketball program in the nation and to do so we have to get our share of high-level recruits. Getting players in the 40-100 range nationally is nice, but it doesn't win national championships nor does it beat Carolina consistently.

Are you aware of the kids Carolina has signed for the 2012 class? Their top recruit is a guard who is not as highly rated as Rasheed. The rest of their class is big men, all of whom are rated right in the 40-100 range you talk about as being something we want to avoid. Mile Plumlee was barely a top 100 recruit. The notion that you must sign nothing but top 20 recruits to succeed is folly.

So if we end up with only Rasheed Sulaimon--who is apparently a great player and a fine young man--for 2012, it will seem incomplete. And it will also make me wonder about our viability with the top-level recruits we are trying to get for 2013. Things can turn quickly in recruiting. One day your program is perceived as sure-fire top 5 nationally and after a couple of down years of recruiting you're struggling to be top 15. It could happen.

Our current freshman class, which includes the top player in the class, is rated among the top classes in the country... and you are worried because we might follow it up by only signing one top 15 player?!?! Really?!?! When you sign a big class, with a lot of good players, it is often difficult to follow up with another stud class the very next year. Duke is loaded for the near future. Heck, a solid argument could be made that a kid like Shabazz might not even start for Duke next year, especially if Austin does not turn pro after one year.

My point is that I think your concerns are a little overblown. Duke could miss on all the kids this year and we'd still be loaded and considered a prime national title contender. Now, if we missed on all our recruits in 2013 too, then it might be worth getting worried, but that is a long way off and early word is that we are doing nicely for the 2013 recruits.

I hate all this recruiting discussion but I'm drawn to it like a moth to a flame. I don't have a good feeling about McGary or Parker. I think it is a significant set back if we don't get one of them.

Sigh... I think folks are a bit too wrapped up in this stuff and may be losing a little bit of perspective. Posters on this board were up in arms after we missed on Patrick Patterson and Greg Monroe. "K can't recruit anymore!" they all insisted. Now, despite Kyrie and Austin and plenty of other ridiculously good recruits folks seem to think McG and Parker are the two most important recruits in Duke history, or something silly like that. If we have learned one thing over the past couple decades or so, it is that Duke will be a national title contender whether we get these guys or not.

I will admit that our big man recruiting does seem to be going a bit less successfully than guard recruiting in recent years. Still, I just cannot get all that worked up about it. Our worst case scenarios still have reasonably sized and skilled guys manning the post for us and it is pretty widely awknowledged that college basketball is a guard's game these days anyway.

-Jason "at what point do we note that Alex Murphy is really a class of 2012 recruit -- another top 10-15 recruit from this class -- who just happened to arrive at Duke early?" Evans

[dukedoc]

I know it's natural for us as human beings to dwell on potential negative outcomes more than potential positive ones, because if the negative outcome truly comes to pass we will have already worked through all of the implications in our minds and we will be better equipped to emotionally deal with the ensuing turmoil. That said, how about we also talk about how awesome it would be if TP does actually commit. The positive vibes over the last couple of days have been very encouraging. As a psychological defense, I don't want to get my hopes up too much, but why not at least talk about it a little, so we can get excited for the announcement?

If TP does come, how many years would people guess he would stay? Is he truly in the Boozer/Brand mold? Would he for the foreseeable future change the landscape of our big-man recruiting? What would be his nickname?

Maybe it's all my up and down experiences in dating that have enabled me to move on fairly quickly even after a somewhat emotional commitment. All this negative talk about how terrible a blow it would be if TP denied Duke has made this thread a bit depressing. This should be a time of excitement more than fear, particularly given some of the positive vibes recently. If TP goes elsewhere we will bandage our wounds and move on. In the meantime, let's get excited for his announcement.

[Duke79UNLV77]

http://espn.go.com/blog/high-school/...os-d-day-looms

http://espn.go.com/blog/high-school/...hes-for-mcgary