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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007

    Phase VIII -- 2009-10

    Well, dear DBR friends, we've come to this. For the first time since I started this little adventure (OK, this is like the third year -- whatever), we've come to Phase VIII. (The Final Frontier?) And that recognition left me a little nostalgic, so I went back and read Phase 0, posted right before Countdown to Craziness, and Phase I, which launched the day of the season-opener. What an amazing ride it's been since then.

    But it's not over. Not by a longshot. We're all thrilled to be in the Final Four, but there's still work to be done. So with that in mind, here are the questions I'll be pondering as Duke heads to Indy for the Final Four and the Final Phase of the 2009-10 season. As I've been doing throughout the tournament, I've tried to make sure these are not game-specific topics.

    1) Can Duke stay healthy?
    The guys have endured a host of bumps and bruises. Mason Plumlee's wrist injury was scary at the start and probably affected the course of his season. Then there was Singler's wrist. Scheyer's back. Thomas' knee. (As an aside, was the LT knee injury actually a blessing? Recall that Zoubek wasn't starting before that, and he supposedly got the nod in case Lance couldn't go against Maryland, so Duke would have veteran leadership at the back of its defense. The rest, as the saying goes, is history.) But the guys have persevered. Everyone is playing. Let's hope they can get through two more games with strong, healthy bodies.

    2) How will Duke handle the big stage?
    This is as experienced a team as you'll find in college basketball these days. Duke has great players and great leaders. That said, the Final Four is a different setting for everyone. You could tell just how excited and relieved the guys were to make it to Indy. They know the job isn't done, but will they lose just a bit of the mental edge that has fueled them all year? I spoke very early in the season about this team developing a collective ego, and K has since emphasized that in public and it has shown through in key spots. Just look at how much more confident guys like Nolan Smith, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek are individually, and even more how the team truly seems to function as a unit that is greater than the sum of its parts. But will said collective ego only be strengthened by the wins in Houston, or will the spotlight and anxiety of the Final Four chip away at it? This, I suppose, is why Coach K is Coach K.

    3) What can a week off do for Duke?
    The perfect counterpoint to the second question, of course, is that Duke will have been off for quite a long time -- long enough to celebrate, refocus, build hunger and prepare. But here's the other thing -- Duke can still get better. I think I said this in one of the past two phases, but every extra week this team gets to practice -- especially in the case of the Plumlees and Dawkins -- is a good thing. Sure enough, we saw Andre step in and hit two big shots against Baylor. Now he gets a full week of practice with that confidence inside. The Plumlees made some mistakes, but also made some big plays in the Purdue and Baylor games. Now they get to learn even more, and you never know when one of them might step up. In Phase 0, I mentioned that this group had more upside than any in several years. I believe there is still more that hasn't been tapped, but could manifest itself through another good week together on the practice floor.

    4) How will Duke adjust to different defensive approaches?
    Duke faced two extremely different defenses in Houston. Purdue played man with small, quick, physical guys. Baylor played a 2-3 zone with tons of length and athleticism. Duke managed to adjust in both games, even if those adjustments were either slow to develop or inconsistent. And Duke will likely see more different approaches as it hopes to advance in Indy. The extra preparation time should help, but what happens if a particular approach proves perfectly suited to stopping Duke's conventional offense? Is there a counter-measure that could work? A small lineup? More straight post-ups? Different placement of the perimeter players? Or does Duke just have to fight harder to do what it does best? I'm particularly interested to see how the perimeter players fight through defenders who might be quicker, stronger AND longer, and what they can do to get open and keep the offense flowing.

    5) How will Duke handle bigs who can spread the floor?
    We got a sense of this in the last two games. Purdue played small, and while Thomas did a nice job of handling Purdue's guards, JaJuan Johnson was able to thrive away from the basket when guarded by Zoubek. The Plumlee brothers continued to make mistakes both on the ball and in hep schemes. Baylor's active, athletic bigs were even more problematic. When they weren't isolating Udoh they were slipping screens and making hard cuts to the basket. Duke's defense is not about one-on-one matchups, and a huge part of that involves Thomas and Zoubek being able to direct action from the baseline and making sure they are in proper help position. Smaller, quicker, perimeter-oriented bigs can throw that system off kilter, not just by exploiting a matchup advantage but by placing our bigs in positions where they can't help, are out of position to rebound effectively on the defensive boards or are forced to foul. It will be interesting to see how K compensates to maintain the integrity of Duke's overall man-to-man scheme; I think it might serve Duke well to not solely play the Plumlees together, but to have one of them in the game with one of the Thomas/Zoubek combo, to maintain better defensive balance.

    6) Does Jon Scheyer have one extra gear left -- one final trick up his sleeve?
    The kid is a winner. We know that. And in the midst of as dreadful a slump as I've seen from such an outstanding player, he rallied in the second half of the Purdue game on pure will, finding his way to the basket. I believe that led directly to the return of his three-point stroke against Baylor. And it just fits. There's just something about this kid -- the state title in high school, the 21 points in 75 seconds -- that makes you think that he can rise to the occasion in a special way. Now he's playing close to home as a senior, and I just get the sense that he is ready to put on an incredible display of basketball. At least, I hope so.

    7) How will the games be officiated?
    I brought this up at the beginning of the tournament, but it's worth repeating. In NCAA games, you just never know how the whistle will go. There are three key areas of officiating from Duke's perspective. One is Brian Zoubek. Simply put, I think refs who are familiar with him have realized that the fact that he's huge doesn't mean that he's fouling. I'm not sure unfamiliar refs are able to see through his awkwardness, though. The second is opponents' perimeter D. If refs allow teams to clutch and grab cutters -- like Purdue did -- that really hurts Duke's flow with the three perimeter guys. And the third is rebounding -- Duke's work on the offensive boards is such a key factor in its success, and the guys need the freedom to go after the ball. Watch how the refs call these plays early.

    8) Can Duke prevent live-ball turnovers?
    If not for live-ball turnovers, Purdue and Baylor wouldn't have had so many first-half runouts and those games wouldn't have been nearly as close. In games that figure to be tight, the fact that Duke generally maximizes possessions through offensive rebounding and taking care of the ball becomes critical. On the other hand, Duke doesn't generate a ton of easy baskets. So to allow teams to get easy baskets off runouts caused by steals could swing a game. Hopefully, Duke got those problems out of its system in the first halves of the games in Houston. Because the team must take care of the ball.

    9) Is Singler's wrist bad again, or did he just have an off shooting night against Baylor?
    This easily could have gone in the first question, but I thought it deserved its own discussion. That photo of his hand/wrist was scary, but hopefully it didn't mean anything. Clearly, Singler needs to be as close to full strength as possible, and Duke doesn't just need him to knock down jumpers; he has to be able to attack the rim to finish and/or get to the foul line.

    10) Are there any surprises in store?
    I've asked this before, but it feels particularly appropriate now. Weird things tend to happen in a Final Four. Will an unexpected player step up with a scoring burst? Will someone get increased playing time because someone else is in foul trouble and grab a few big rebounds? Will K suddenly throw a zone at the other team for a couple of possessions? Will someone play the role of Marty Clark and knock down clutch free throws off the bench? Or will something we can't even imagine transpire -- hopefully to give Duke an edge? I guess that's why we watch.

    There are obviously so many other factors that will decide these games, but I feel that's a pretty comprehensive list of critical questions. This team has a wonderful opportunity in front of it -- time to seize the moment. Go Duke!

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    9) Is Singler's wrist bad again, or did he just have an off shooting night against Baylor?
    This easily could have gone in the first question, but I thought it deserved its own discussion. That photo of his hand/wrist was scary, but hopefully it didn't mean anything. Clearly, Singler needs to be as close to full strength as possible, and Duke doesn't just need him to knock down jumpers; he has to be able to attack the rim to finish and/or get to the foul line.
    FWIW, I've been told by a respected poster on this board that the discoloration was caused by a tight tape job, so while the wrist is obviously bothering Kyle (thus the taping) it will not be an issue moving forward.

    ETA: Thanks for your posts thus far this season, Jumbo.

    A level head you keep around here...

  3. #3
    Although I'll regret it in the morning, I'm glad I stayed up late enough to read this. Great stuff.

    #4 and #5 deserve more specifics, given that our opponents are well known. Maybe not in this thread. Is it time for "How we beat XXXX" yet?

    10) My personal wish list:
    * 17 footers from Miles and Lance = money in the bank every time a defender dares help away from them.
    * Dawkins pulls a Dunleavy from behind the arc.
    * A spin move from Mason that starts 8' out instead of at the top of the key.
    * As many baby hooks as Big Z cares to take. (I trust his shot selection now.)
    * NCAA statisticians finally start giving Zoubek his due credit in the steals column.
    * Coach K goes "orange" on a few random possessions vs Butler, just to mess with their heads.
    * After an all-night pep talk from Jordan Davidson's brother, K agrees to insert him into the starting lineup. After leaping 5 feet to win the opening tip he bullies his way into the paint, Barkley-style, and banks one home. Jordan spends subsequent trips downcourt relentlessly calling for the ball, posting up his man, and before long breaking Danny Ferry's single game scoring record.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    #5 is especially pertinent in Saturday's game, as basically all of WVU's regular bigs are more than willing to step out away from the basket. In fact, that's probably the strength of their games. Jones and Smith will pick and pop and pick and slip to the basket. It will be interesting to see how Zoubek handles that. And Ebanks likes to slash the baseline and dive in for rebound putbacks.

    If I had to guess, I'd say Thomas will get Jones and Zoubek will get Smith to start. That leaves Singler on Ebanks and Scheyer on Butler. All of those matchups are really interesting.

    I realize that this is not a Duke vs WVU thread, but #5 really lends itself to discussing these matchups.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC - Since 1985
    I like the list.

    I think in order my "concerns" if you can call them that are:

    #8) Live ball turnovers and transition defense... I think this is our one potential flaw. We don't turn it over that much, but when we do, we need to get back in transition. If we can make these games half court affairs, I like our chances at the end.

    #7) Foul trouble for Z and Lance... you said it, if the call Z for the way he lumbers vs. the actual end result, we are in trouble because the extra possessions at end of games from OR's is key to pulling out a nail biter.

    #9) Kyle's wrist... hope it is strong for the weekend.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Live ball TO's - WV's slower pace suggests they do not get many run-outs. Has anyone watched neough of them to comment? We do a good job of protecting the ball, but occasionally relax too much on perimeter passes and throw a wounded duck. Perhaps a few back door plays would keep the D honest.

    A week off - I think this will be huge for Duke. Coach K will have plenty of time to scount, prepare and implement the offense to deal with WV's man or 1-3-1. This was evident vs. Baylor as our big men shined (shone?) in the middle of the zone early on. Baylor eventually adjusted but our preparation was evident.

    Perimeter Offense - We started slow vs. Purdue's D, especially on the perimeter. They roughed us up but could not keep it going for 40 minutes. Can WV play that tough for a full 40? How do we respond? I'd love to see Singler have 2-3 plays early where he turns into an animal and scares WV !

    Bench contributions - Andre's 2 3-balls were huge for us. I said last week that it would be nice to get a first half bucket from each of our bench guys plus LT just to keep defenses honest. Same holds true this weekend. Even the semblance of balanced offense will help the Big 3 get better looks and give them a little more space.

    Rebounding - This game appears like it will be won on the boards. WV is really good because of their athleticism and their spread. MSU and Butler might not have the size and depth to hang on the boards with either Duke or WV.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Berg View Post
    Is it time for "How we beat XXXX" yet?
    I think that mojo is dead. If anything, it would be time for a "Can [Butler]/[Michigan State] beat Duke?" thread.

  8. #8
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Live ball TO's - WV's slower pace suggests they do not get many run-outs. Has anyone watched neough of them to comment? We do a good job of protecting the ball, but occasionally relax too much on perimeter passes and throw a wounded duck. Perhaps a few back door plays would keep the D honest.
    WVU's defense doesn't really force turnovers. They're big and physical, but not that quick. They're one of the worst in terms of forcing live ball turnovers in the country. They don't do anything particularly well defensively, but aside from not forcing turnovers they do pretty much everything else okay defensively.

    What they do well is rebound, specifically on the offensive glass. They're mediocre defensively on the glass. Both teams should have an edge on the offensive boards. And they're more than willing to invert their offense with Butler posting and Jones/Smith standing on the perimeter. They're also more than willing to slip screens and send cutters to the basket, which is something we'll need to be wary of.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    I think that mojo is dead. If anything, it would be time for a "Can [Butler]/[Michigan State] beat Duke?" thread.
    Yeah, I made a decision not to go there this season. I forget who started those 9 years ago, but clearly my taking over the thread-starting didn't lead to good results. The pre-game/in-game thread is more than good enough to discuss game-specific stuff, and I hope this thread works for big-picture issues.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham, within a couple of miles of Cameron
    This may not be the best place to ask this question, -feel free to move it, Jumbo- but I don't think I've seen anyone evaluate WVa before and after Truck's fracture, i.e., the implications of using their back-up point guard. Sure, I saw them beat UK, but how does it apply to how they match up against our defense/offense?
    Please point me to the appropriate thread if I've missed it; Thanks!
    Last edited by JStuart; 03-31-2010 at 12:40 PM. Reason: punctuation

  11. #11
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    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by JStuart View Post
    This may not be the best place to ask this question, -feel free to move it, Jumbo- but I don't think I've seen anyone evaluate WVa before and after Truck's fracture, i.e., the implications of using their back-up point guard. Sure, I saw them beat UK, but how does it apply to how they match up against our defense/offense?
    Please point me to the appropriate thread if I've missed it; Thanks!
    Truck is listed as "doubtful" Channeling their inner Tar Heel, he'll start and score a career high.

    -jk

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by JStuart View Post
    This may not be the best place to ask this question, -feel free to move it, Jumbo- but I don't think I've seen anyone evaluate WVa before and after Truck's fracture, i.e., the implications of using their back-up point guard. Sure, I saw them beat UK, but how does it apply to how they match up against our defense/offense?
    Please point me to the appropriate thread if I've missed it; Thanks!
    Before the injury, WVU had two PG: Bryant and Mazzulla. After the injury, they likely have only Mazzulla. Mazzulla is a very capable replacement. In fact, there are a lot of similarities. Neither are good shooters (though Bryant is a better shooter than Mazzulla, as Mazzulla has been recovering from a shoulder injury). Both are stout, strong guards who like to attack off the dribble (mainly because that's the only way they score). They don't lose too much with Mazzulla replacing Bryant.

    Where they DO lose out in the Bryant injury is that they have literally no backup PG to rely upon. They might play Mitchell (a SG) at the point in limited minutes. Otherwise, they'll give the ball to Butler and go with a team of all 6'7"-6'9" players.

    How does it factor into our defensive strategy? Well, it depends. When Mazzulla is on the floor, there's little change. When he's off the floor, WVU will go REALLY big in the backcourt. That will hurt their ballhandling, but may help their rebounding and potentially their defense.

  13. #13
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    Washington, D.C.

    I agree

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Before the injury, WVU had two PG: Bryant and Mazzulla. After the injury, they likely have only Mazzulla. Mazzulla is a very capable replacement. In fact, there are a lot of similarities. Neither are good shooters (though Bryant is a better shooter than Mazzulla, as Mazzulla has been recovering from a shoulder injury). Both are stout, strong guards who like to attack off the dribble (mainly because that's the only way they score). They don't lose too much with Mazzulla replacing Bryant.

    Where they DO lose out in the Bryant injury is that they have literally no backup PG to rely upon. They might play Mitchell (a SG) at the point in limited minutes. Otherwise, they'll give the ball to Butler and go with a team of all 6'7"-6'9" players.

    How does it factor into our defensive strategy? Well, it depends. When Mazzulla is on the floor, there's little change. When he's off the floor, WVU will go REALLY big in the backcourt. That will hurt their ballhandling, but may help their rebounding and potentially their defense.
    Just want to note that Mazzulla has had a tendency to foul a lot this year, as we saw Saturday. So it's likely that WV will have to play quite a bit without a point guard in the game.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Just want to note that Mazzulla has had a tendency to foul a lot this year, as we saw Saturday. So it's likely that WV will have to play quite a bit without a point guard in the game.
    Good point. He's had at least 3 fouls in 16 of his 36 games, and 4 fouls or more in 11. And this is despite the fact that he's played less than 20 minutes in 26 of his 36 games. So foul trouble for Mazzulla is a definite concern.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    When he's off the floor, WVU will go REALLY big in the backcourt. That will hurt their ballhandling, but may help their rebounding and potentially their defense.
    Do you think we might try to counter in those situations with a one-guard lineup of our own (e.g., Jon, Kyle, Lance, Mason, Miles)? Or should we try to make them adapt to us?

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Do you think we might try to counter in those situations with a one-guard lineup of our own (e.g., Jon, Kyle, Lance, Mason, Miles)? Or should we try to make them adapt to us?
    I really don't expect to see Singler, Scheyer, or Smith come out of the game at all unless they're injured or in foul trouble. Maybe Andre gets a minute or two here or there, but we got where we are with the Big 3 - I think K will dance with the girl he brung, so to speak.

  17. #17
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    The latter

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Do you think we might try to counter in those situations with a one-guard lineup of our own (e.g., Jon, Kyle, Lance, Mason, Miles)? Or should we try to make them adapt to us?
    Our two primary guards are two of our best three players. Let them try to cover Nolan with someone who is 6'7" (if Mazzulla is out and Bryant can't play).

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Do you think we might try to counter in those situations with a one-guard lineup of our own (e.g., Jon, Kyle, Lance, Mason, Miles)? Or should we try to make them adapt to us?
    I think we'd stay with Smith, for two reasons. First, I don't think we'd want to give up our advantage offensively, which is what would happen by replacing Smith with Plumlee. Second, I think Smith can probably defend Flowers/Mitchell/Pepper.

    We've never been a team that likes to change our style to match up with an opponent. I don't think we'd deviate from that if WVU goes big. Especially because I'm not sure that going big is actually an advantage for WVU.

    The advantage that WVU has is that their bigs can spread the floor and their "smalls" can score inside.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Do you think we might try to counter in those situations with a one-guard lineup of our own (e.g., Jon, Kyle, Lance, Mason, Miles)? Or should we try to make them adapt to us?
    We'd be silly not to press the daylights out of them.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matches View Post
    I really don't expect to see Singler, Scheyer, or Smith come out of the game at all unless they're injured or in foul trouble. Maybe Andre gets a minute or two here or there, but we got where we are with the Big 3 - I think K will dance with the girl he brung, so to speak.
    Exactly. I expect 38+ minutes each from the big 3, barring injury or foul trouble. They've gotten us this far, and they're our best bet to keep us moving regardless of matchup.

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