Did you notice how much lower Ohio State is in the Sagarin? Is it SOS that does them in?
#2 in the RPI
http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html
#3 in Sagarin/USA Today
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0910.htm
#1 Pomeroy
http://kenpom.com/rate.php
AP will be out tomorrow.
Kansas State at #5 lost twice this week.
Ohio State at #6 has lost 7 games this season and trailed significantly in points in last weeks poll.
For what it is worth, My predictions for the AP:
#1 Kansas
#2 KY
#3 Syracuse
#4 Devils
#5 Ohio State
We take care of business next weekend, we will be a #1 seed and ACC Champs for two years in a row.
9 MORE AND COUNTING!!
Did you notice how much lower Ohio State is in the Sagarin? Is it SOS that does them in?
Last I saw, OSU's SOS was 80.
Actually the non-rpi computers still like Ohio State a lot. Sagarin has them at 13 and Pomeroy has them at 6, even before you account for Turner's injury. I don't know who has a good rpi simulation, and the real one doesn't come out again until tomorrow, but CBS rpi has them at 28 with an SOS of 65. This is one case where it will help that the committee uses rpi more than the other computers.
If Ohio State is held back, the schedule will do it. It was very top heavy with 4 top 25 rpi wins, but only 5 top 50 and 9 top 100 (as of last week). Those numbers can change constantly as teams move in and fall out the top 25, 50, and 100. Compare that to Duke's numbers of 3 top 25, 8 top 50, and 17 top 100 wins (based on the CBS rpi as of today).
I also think that the polls might move Ohio State ahead of us since it is generally more of a snapshot.
Duke is still #4 in both polls.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings
Number 4 again this week in both major polls for our Dukies indicates to me that the pollsters didn't look at the loss @Maryland as a bad loss. In fact, it actually had no effect on our poll positions. It apprears to me that if Duke locks down the ACC Tourney Championship, they are a lock for the last 1 seed. I have not felt this confident about our chances of making a Final Four in a LONG time. Joe Lunardi's latest bracetology has Duke as a 1 seed in the West Region (Salt Lake City Regional). I LOVE our chances of getting to the Final Four with his latest projections:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Our bracket's top four teams would be Duke, Purdue, Tennessee, and Villanova. In my opinion, we would have the best chance of making the Final Four out of any one seed by both our momentum we have and the way we match up with the top 3 other seeds in our bracket. Purdue lost Hummel and I think we can lock down on them defensively, Tennessee could not handle our defense in the half court if we're attacking their perimeter, and we OWE Villanova last year, especially Taylor King. They aren't as good as they were last year in my opinion, and in fact, I think Taylor King is playing poorly right now (though I only saw him play against West VA and Syracuse recently where Nova lost both games). Man, if we get a 1 seed in the West, I LOVE our chances of getting to the Final Four.
That game worried me a bit, too, because they are, well, Lousiville. Rick Pitino is a coach you would rather face in the regionals or finals. With that said, they ARE 20-11, so they're aren't exactly unbeatable. They have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation this far, so they are battle tested. They lost by 19 to a St. John's team that we beat and lost by 22 to a Charlotte team that we beat. Obviously, that was all early in the season and they did just beat Syracuse, though it was the last game at Freedom Hall and there was no way they would lose that game.
A lot can change, so we might not even be in the same bracket as Louisville. But if we are and knock them out in the round of 32, we sail right into the Final Four in my honest opinion.
Taylor King, who has been inconsistent lately-especially with his 3-pointers (interestingly enough)-was suspended for the last/West Virginia game for unspecified "disciplinary reasons".
We have season tickets to Villanova games and see him close-up; he has lost weight/is in better shape since his Duke days, is a good rebounder, and is usually first off the bench....
GoDukeGo - I disagree re Purdue. I'm quietly hoping we DO get Purdue as one of our region's top-seeded opponents. Look, (assuming for the moment that we're a #1) whoever is the #2, #3, #4 ...they're going to be really good. But at least in Purdue you are getting someone who "earned" their seed earlier in the season; but they are a different team now w/o their star player. In that sense I expect them to be a little "over-seeded." I agree that Louisville might be scary in the 2nd round, but as long as we're playing in Jacksonville, FL (seems the most likely sub-regional destination for us) then our fans will outnumber theirs by a lot. 'nova is another match-up I would not relish, BUT at least they are not a team with a lot of momentum (confidence?) right now. They certainly aren't the same team that killed us in the Sweet 16 last year.
You have to play SOMEBODY to get to Indianapolis (4 opponents), and as paths go, this is not the hardest one we've faced in recent years... We will see.
Prediction: If Duke wins the ACCT, then we get a #1 seed. If we lose Sat or Sun, we still have a chance, but likely fall to a #2. (Wouldn't mind if we're a #2 to a OSU #1...) For OSU to get a #1 seed, they need to win the Big-10/11 (not favored!), and have Duke (or maybe Syracuse) lose. Most likely, though, the first three #1's are essentially "set." And we just need to hang on to our #1 by TAKING CARE OF BUSINESS IN GREENSBORO.
It would be a lot like playing Texas in the 2nd Round last year. We would actually matchup alright with L'ville. Samuels isn't the type of big man that would give us troubles so Zoubs could control him. Lance can stay with Jennings. Kyle would have an edge over Delk, and Jon and Nolan would match up very well with Sosa and Smith. And it's also no guarantee that Louisville would beat Norther Iowa because that is one of those typical mid-major teams that can fill up from downtown.
To me, Baylor and Nova are the scariest teams in that bracket but I think Duke could handle every other team.
In Pomeroy's rankings, going back to 2004, the #1 ranked team has won the national title 4/6 times. The other two teams were us in 2004 (lost in the FF to Pomeroy #2 and eventual champs UConn) and the Holes in 2007 (massive choke job against #5 Georgetown in the Elite Eight). '05 and '09 UNC, '06 Florida, and '08 Kansas were all Pomeroy #1's.
I'm not saying, I'm just saying.
Yes, the #1 or #2 team in Pomeroy has won the title in each of the last six years. In two of the last six years, Pomeroy has exactly predicted the Final Four. In all but two of the last six years, the Final Four has included teams only in the top-7 of Pomeroy. The last time we finished in the top-2 in Pomeroy, we made the Final Four. Those facts certainly bode well for us considering we're currently #1 in Pomeroy. Hopefully, those trends continue.
Its also worth noting that we are #1 in Sagarin's PURE POINTS predictor which is the "is the best single PREDICTOR of future games."
And in Pomeroy's rankings we have played the #1 ranked "defensive" schedule (I believe that means we have played the best defensive teams in the country) and yet we also have the #1 offense in the country (to go along with the #3 defense). I guess that's what happens when you shoot ~39% from 3 point land...
Of course, those teams only became #1 in the Pomeroy rankings AFTER the tournament. If you can get numbers on what the Pomeroy rankings looked like before the tourney, then that might mean something as a predictor. It is a mostly good sign that the teams were highly rated enough to rise to #1 by the end of the tourney though.
I can assure everyone here that no other team will be "happy" to see us in their bracket, regardless of whether we are a 1 or a 2 seed. Bring 'em on!
Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!
Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
9F 9F 9F
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