MBB: Duke vs. Butler for the NCAA Championship

[Troublemaker]

Well said Genedoc. Let me add something if I may. I keep hearing this statement that Butler is very very good with their hands at forcing turnovers. Well. Hum. According to the stats, they are 72nd in the nation in steals (avg 11.0/game).
http://kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=StlRate

Three ACC teams are ahead of them (Clem and FSU way ahead of them). In TOs forced, they are similarly ranked #74 (also with three ACC teams better than they).
http://kenpom.com/factors.php?t=d&s=5

So I'm not so sure they're the TO-machine they're made out to be by the media these last two days.

Considering we're #15 in the country in TOs, I have to say we have the advantage.
http://kenpom.com/factors.php?t=o&s=5

Well, "quick hands" don't necessarily have to result in turnovers to be effective. Just by placing the offensive player in discomfort where he is concerned about the hands and/or by bothering the shot and getting said hands in the face of the shooter, the hands are doing their job. Still, I think Butler is pretty darn good at getting turnovers, and if you watch yesterday's press conferences, it was actually our coaches and players that complimented the Bulldogs on their "active hands" over and over again, in succession, and commented on how we have to be strong with the ball. Duke respects Butler's hands.

I've enjoyed reading Genedoc's posts in this thread and I respect that Duke has played against some very good defenses this season. But I think Butler's defense is indeed nasty and might be the best we've encountered this season. Two things:

(1) As Duke fans, we understand that the stats, as good as they look for us, can't completely capture how good a team Duke currently is because we've improved a lot throughout the season, including even in the past week or two and Pomeroy's rankings, as far as I know, weigh early-season games as much as late-season games. Well, I think the Bulldogs likewise are probably even better than their stats suggest right now. As Pomeroy points out here, Butler has held its past 3 opponents to their second-worst offensive game of the season. Like I said, nasty.

(2) Jim Boeheim told Jay Bilas (it's an ESPN Insider blog, so not everyone will have access) that Butler has the best defensive backcourt he's faced in the past decade. Now, Boeheim may be be guilty of bias since he lost to them, but I think Butler will definitely give us some trouble on the perimeter, which is why protecting the ball and winning the offensive rebounding battle will be so important. Duke's offense has been really outstanding recently, though. The Big 3 have played so well off each other, and we seem to be shooting the ball well, and of course, the offensive rebounding... I don't concede that we will lose the battle of our offense against their defense, but I caution that their defense really is pretty awesome or has developed into something pretty awesome.

[Genedoc]

Well, "quick hands" don't necessarily have to result in turnovers to be effective. Just by placing the offensive player in discomfort where he is concerned about the hands and/or by bothering the shot and getting said hands in the face of the shooter, the hands are doing their job. Still, I think Butler is pretty darn good at getting turnovers, and if you watch yesterday's press conferences, it was actually our coaches and players that complimented the Bulldogs on their "active hands" over and over again, in succession, and commented on how we have to be strong with the ball. Duke respects Butler's hands.

I've enjoyed reading Genedoc's posts in this thread and I respect that Duke has played against some very good defenses this season. But I think Butler's defense is indeed nasty and might be the best we've encountered this season. Two things:

(1) As Duke fans, we understand that the stats, as good as they look for us, can't completely capture how good a team Duke currently is because we've improved a lot throughout the season, including even in the past week or two and Pomeroy's rankings, as far as I know, weigh early-season games as much as late-season games. Well, I think the Bulldogs likewise are probably even better than their stats suggest right now. As Pomeroy points out here, Butler has held its past 3 opponents to their second-worst offensive game of the season. Like I said, nasty.

(2) Jim Boeheim told Jay Bilas (it's an ESPN Insider blog, so not everyone will have access) that Butler has the best defensive backcourt he's faced in the past decade. Now, Boeheim may be be guilty of bias since he lost to them, but I think Butler will definitely give us some trouble on the perimeter, which is why protecting the ball and winning the offensive rebounding battle will be so important. Duke's offense has been really outstanding recently, though. The Big 3 have played so well off each other, and we seem to be shooting the ball well, and of course, the offensive rebounding... I don't concede that we will lose the battle of our offense against their defense, but I caution that their defense really is pretty awesome or has developed into something pretty awesome.

I don't disagree with any of this, and I'm not arguing as much as passing the time. However awesome Butler's D is, we get to play defense, too, and we're pretty good at it ourselves.

Let's say that Butler defends us as well as they've defended anyone else this tourney, and we're held to our second worst offensive game of the season. Our low is 57, in a game we pretty handily won vs. UVa a month ago. Our second lowest other than that is 60, so let's say Butler holds us to 59 - right in between the two. Against defenses not nearly as highly rated as ours over the last 4 games, Butler has averaged 58 points. So on defense, they have to be as good as they have been against a higher rated offense than they've seen thus far, AND be better offensively vs. a higher rated defense than any they've seen. Possible? Certainly. But I love our chances, and I'm pretty sure most coaches, if forced to pick a team to coach tonight with their lives on the line, would pick Duke.

Both the 57 pt. game vs. UVa and the 60 point game vs. Clemson, we won by double digits. We're as comfortable playing games in the 50-60 point range as they are, which isn't the case for most of their opponents. We can beat them at their game, which is exceedingly rare for an NC match-up.

[DevilOfATime]

I am so nerveous about tonight game. I think its going to be a hard fought game but I think Duke will win. I am growing to Hate Butler living in Indiana and I know its a local school and its in Indy. But I am avoiding all local news but only for the weather. So sick of getting Butler rammed down my throat. I know good story and all. Don't get me even started what the lovely local paper Indy Star paper did a few days ago. Luckily they got calls and they pulled their paper and redone them.

But If Butler wins, I will probably need to move. I think Duke will win tonight. Butler is no cupcake team.

[rotogod00]

howard has been cleared to play tonite:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tourna...ory?id=5057338

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

howard has been cleared to play tonite:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/tourna...ory?id=5057338

How effective is the real question, This is the biggiest game of his basketball career, I was pretty sure he was going to play.

[superdave]

How effective is the real question, This is the biggiest game of his basketball career, I was pretty sure he was going to play.

Howard has been in so much foul trouble the past 3-4 games that it's hard to predict his performance, concussion or not.

[Kewlswim]

We will be tight and playing not to lose. I expect K and staff to work on that.

Butler will be both loose and focused.

The crowd will be 90/10 Butler.

BTW I heard that the Butler players went to classes today. Which is both pretty classy and something that might get their minds off the game, which I think is good for them.

SoCal

Hi SoCal,

Sure, Duke could be tight. However, they could have been tight against WVU and they weren't. I think/feel Duke is a focused team with a chip on its shoulder. Those types of teams, in my experience, are usually not tight, but ready to get at it.

I've come to the conclusion we are hyper sensitive as a fan base because of the Duke hate, the 1999 debacle, and the recent success (or lack there of) in the NCAA tournament. Coach K has said this team is different from those recent teams. Coach K even looks different, he looks fresh and ready for action.

Anything can happen. I am worried too, but somehow this time feels really different. I don't think any of those guys are out partying like the 1999 team was. I don't think this team is thinking about its draft position in the NBA. This team is looking for a victory on Monday night and anything less will be a huge disappointment.

Call it a feeling, nothing else, but I feel one of our role players will come up really big tonight. Will it be Dre? Ryan? MP2?

I wonder how Czyz feels having stepped away from this? He could have maybe played in a FF game, maybe even had a super dunk in the championship game...sigh.

GO DUKE!

[jdj4duke]

Anything can happen. We are a good team. Focused. Great coach. I am nervous as I am before every game. Saying all of that, I think it's

Duke. Big.

[JayBean]

One thing I have not heard mentioned by the talking heads is that Duke was on the opposite side of this David vs Goliath thing back in 1991 with UNLV. We've also seen how fortunes can turn in 1999. The point is that Coach K knows that anything can happen and this team responds to his messages very well.

Butler could win. But it won't be because of overconfidence. They will have to earn it against a very intelligent and driven Duke team.

I like our chances.

[cato]

One thing I have not heard mentioned by the talking heads is that Duke was on the opposite side of this David vs Goliath thing back in 1991 with UNLV.

I'm hoping that Butler takes the cues from Duke's 1990 turn as David, not the one a year later.

[Genedoc]

I'm hoping that Butler takes the cues from Duke's 1990 turn as David, not the one a year later.

Jinx - I was about to post the exact same thing. And while I certainly don't expect it to be UNLV/Duke 1990, I think there's about a 10% chance it could be. Certainly hoping for it.

[Troublemaker]

I don't disagree with any of this, and I'm not arguing as much as passing the time. However awesome Butler's D is, we get to play defense, too, and we're pretty good at it ourselves.

Let's say that Butler defends us as well as they've defended anyone else this tourney, and we're held to our second worst offensive game of the season. Our low is 57, in a game we pretty handily won vs. UVa a month ago. Our second lowest other than that is 60, so let's say Butler holds us to 59 - right in between the two. Against defenses not nearly as highly rated as ours over the last 4 games, Butler has averaged 58 points. So on defense, they have to be as good as they have been against a higher rated offense than they've seen thus far, AND be better offensively vs. a higher rated defense than any they've seen. Possible? Certainly. But I love our chances, and I'm pretty sure most coaches, if forced to pick a team to coach tonight with their lives on the line, would pick Duke.

Both the 57 pt. game vs. UVa and the 60 point game vs. Clemson, we won by double digits. We're as comfortable playing games in the 50-60 point range as they are, which isn't the case for most of their opponents. We can beat them at their game, which is exceedingly rare for an NC match-up.

Oh, I hear you. I don't disagree with anything you've written, either. I've just noticed that Duke has fared well this season when I provide a "devil's advocate" slant on things pre-game, so I'm going to try to continue along the same path.

As far as Butler's offense is concerned, I think they're a pretty good matchup for us, but I think there are a couple of areas where they can give us (or any team) trouble. First, and Bilas has pointed this out before, Butler is a really good dribble-drive team and they draw a lot of fouls that way. They do have the elements in place to spread us out and attack us off the dribble, and while we have gotten better at defending that plan of attack as the season has progressed, our vulnerability there is still in the back of mind. We've got to contain without fouling. Secondly, I'm wary of their ball screens. I noticed someone above pointed out that Butler didn't use many ball screens against MSU. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from that one game since matchups can differ so much from game to game. MSU switches screens at the 5 with more ease than Duke since Green, Morgan, and Roe are more agile than Z. Butler enjoys running ball screens to initiate offense, and they have an excellent screener in Howard, and if I were Brad Stevens, I know I'd try to get Z involved in ball screen situations. While Z has moved better this season, Duke could be vulnerable there to both physical and communication breakdowns, especially going against guards that can turn the corner, good screeners, and an overall well-coached, intelligent team.

[blueprofessor]

link: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1059

Hayward plays the 5 a good deal and draws Zoubek outside?
Very interesting comments, including Pomeroy's assertion Duke's points per possession will be lower...

Best regards---Blueprofessor

[CDu]

link: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1059

Hayward plays the 5 a good deal and draws Zoubek outside?
Very interesting comments, including Pomeroy's assertion Duke's points per possession will be lower...

Best regards---Blueprofessor

To be fair, it's not that bold an assertion to suggest that our points per possession will come down from 1.4. That was an absurd performance in the Final Four, and our season average is around 1.2. Combine that with the fact that we're playing the third-best defensive team we've faced this year, and we should expect to have more trouble scoring than we did against WVU.

But it is an interesting discussion, and highlights some key points that have been discussed in this thread as well.

One thing I'll disagree with John's idea that if Butler could score just enough against Syracuse and KSU then they should be able to score enough against us. We're better both offensively and defensively than either of those two teams. Not saying that Butler can't beat us. Just saying that the logic doesn't hold there.

[KyDevilinIL]

Good grief. A few hours ago I checked this thread and came away with the impression that Butler was a dream matchup for Duke. Now I read this thread and suddenly it seems like a nightmare. I don't know what to think.

I feel a messy mix of unbridled excitement and total horror about tonight. I dunno if I can make it 2 1/2 more hours.

[blueprofessor]

To be fair, it's not that bold an assertion to suggest that our points per possession will come down from 1.4. That was an absurd performance in the Final Four, and our season average is around 1.2. Combine that with the fact that we're playing the third-best defensive team we've faced this year, and we should expect to have more trouble scoring than we did against WVU.

But it is an interesting discussion, and highlights some key points that have been discussed in this thread as well.

One thing I'll disagree with John's idea that if Butler could score just enough against Syracuse and KSU then they should be able to score enough against us. We're better both offensively and defensively than either of those two teams. Not saying that Butler can't beat us. Just saying that the logic doesn't hold there.

Duke has averaged 60 possessions a game in the tourney and Butler has averaged 62. Duke --WVU was one of the 2 slowest tempo games in the tourney.Can Duke, the slower tempo team, dictate the pace?

Prediction of a 58 possessions game and low scoring...

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1059

Best regards--Blueprofessor

[Genedoc]

Good grief. A few hours ago I checked this thread and came away with the impression that Butler was a dream matchup for Duke. Now I read this thread and suddenly it seems like a nightmare. I don't know what to think.

I feel a messy mix of unbridled excitement and total horror about tonight. I dunno if I can make it 2 1/2 more hours.

Hehe...It's the NC game. We're playing a very good team that's playing very well right now and can beat us. There's no contortion of the data that indicates they're a nightmare matchup for us. We've faced our nightmare matchup. It was Baylor. In all seriousness, we could not honestly ask to face a team we match up better with for a National Championship.

Good matchup <> automatic win, and that's what folks have been nervously chattering about, myself included.

[CDu]

Good grief. A few hours ago I checked this thread and came away with the impression that Butler was a dream matchup for Duke. Now I read this thread and suddenly it seems like a nightmare. I don't know what to think.

I feel a messy mix of unbridled excitement and total horror about tonight. I dunno if I can make it 2 1/2 more hours.

There's no such thing as a dream matchup in the NCAA championship game. But this is probably the best matchup we could have hoped for. Butler is a lot like Purdue but with less shotblocking, more defensive rebounding, and slightly more scoring balance.

Does that mean we can't lose? Absolutely not. Butler is still a very good team. And it's possible that they can put two halves together like Purdue did in the first half. We should win, but Butler has a chance.

Their strength defensively is a direct foil to our strength offensively. I think that whoever wins that matchup will win the game.

[Spy]

Good grief. A few hours ago I checked this thread and came away with the impression that Butler was a dream matchup for Duke. Now I read this thread and suddenly it seems like a nightmare. I don't know what to think.

I feel a messy mix of unbridled excitement and total horror about tonight. I dunno if I can make it 2 1/2 more hours.

Me too, man. In the days before the game, you know, we're confident, we feel good about the game, we feel like the team is ready, but once gametime rolls around, you get nervous. You start to question what you figured out before. It is just something that comes with huge games. It's great, it just means that you really care about this team.

[Eckster]

Me too, man. In the days before the game, you know, we're confident, we feel good about the game, we feel like the team is ready, but once gametime rolls around, you get nervous. You start to question what you figured out before. It is just something that comes with huge games. It's great, it just means that you really care about this team.

Forget about it. At this point, drink a beer and stop analyzing it. Duke's gonna win. There, I said it. Confidence!