What The Dorks Think about the FF teams

[airowe]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1043

A log5 update

Pre-tourney
Final4 Champ Final Champ
1S Duke 51.2 24.5 69.6 56.0
2E West Virginia 20.0 3.8 30.4 19.5
5W Butler 5.3 0.5 57.7 15.4
5MW Michigan St. 3.6 0.5 42.3 9.0

This is a log5 table. It's explained here. The "Pre-tourney" columns indicate a team's chances of reaching the Final Four and winning the title as estimated before the tournament began.

http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_NewsBre...medium=twitter

Now, what do the efficiency numbers look like for this year’s Final Four?
Off. Efficiency Def. Efficiency Efficiency Margin
Duke 115.6 91.3 24.3
Butler 107.6 92.4 15.2
WVU 111.6 96.8 14.8
MSU 109.2 96.7 12.5

[moonpie23]

gotta love the math

[Genedoc]

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1043



http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_NewsBre...medium=twitter

Anyone who speaks KenPomeranian want to translate into what that means on a basketball court? TIA.

[camion]

Anyone who speaks KenPomeranian want to translate into what that means on a basketball court? TIA.

The dorks like us, at least their computer programs do. We're the most likely to win the NC according to dorkdom.

[CDu]

Anyone who speaks KenPomeranian want to translate into what that means on a basketball court? TIA.

The first table means Duke has basically a coin flip's chance (slightly better, actually) to win it all. Prior to the tournament, we had about a 1-in-4 chance. But given that we've made it this far and given who is left, our odds are substantially better. We're the odds-on favorite.

The second table means we score 115.6 points per 100 possessions, and give up 91.3 points per 100 possessions. Our margin of victory in a 100-possession (for each team) game is 24.3 points, which is 9 more than any of the other teams. We also have the most efficient offense and most efficient defense of the remaining teams.

Note: all of this is just interpretation of what the tables are saying - not a statement of what I think will happen (I don't want to jinx anything).

[MChambers]

Pomeroy's article explains this a bit:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1043

[riverside6]

more "dorkiness" from my site, you can simulate the Duke/West Virginia game here.

It has now been simulated 69 times and Duke has won 70% of the time with an avg score of Duke 69 West Virginia 64.

[billyj]

I am a big fan of math. However, the wonderful tournament has showed us that numbers sometimes don't apply. Iowa isn't suppose to beat Kansas. Who would have thought WVU can shoot the 3's like they did again Kentucky. Kyle Singler going 0-10 against baylor and yet Duke won?


I am curious to know the EM for Kentucky and Kansas.