Small-ball and a short bench

[mepanchin]

I hope our "small ball" lineup is Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Singler and Thomas with McClure, Scheyer, Smith and King getting additional minutes (in the small-ball context).

Against bigger teams we can probably expect more of a Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Singler, Zoubek lineup with Thomas, Scheyer, McClure, Smith and King all contributing off the bench.

The smallball lineup I mentioned, I think, can play good defense against most teams and can rebound defensively well enough to get out on a break. We will be successful if we can average 72 or 73 possessions a game efficiently (last year, we averaged 66).

[ACCBBallFan]

If that happens, I suspect that we will not get far. Thats 4 guards and skinny tall guy. We will get creamed. With no inside presence of any consequence, opponents will guard the 3 point line like stink on a dog. Don't expect alot of 3's from us consistently enough to win regularly.

IMO the key to the year is whether or not Zoubek and/or Thomas can provide some consistent inside scoring. Without it, there's no balance. Hard to win with 3's when the other team knows thats what you have to do to win.

I agree with you except not from a short term one year perspective. Duke is a long shot this year but if they develop Zoubek and Thomas and King and so many others by spreading out PT, Duke will be a true contender the following two years if all they lose is Nelson (I know possibly Henderson and posssibly Singler).

Duke fans in general, not this poster, gotta get over this have to win every year mentality as in the process lose the core group and some of the sitters transfer, and groom a core that can again win big a couple years in a row. Zoubek and Lance and King and Smith and McClure and Pocius also have to be an integral pArt of the team, not just practice players.

[dw0827]

I agree with you except not from a short term one year perspective. Duke is a long shot this year but if they develop Zoubek and Thomas and King and so many others by spreading out PT, Duke will be a true contender the following two years if all they lose is Nelson (I know possibly Henderson and posssibly Singler).

True. This coming year, I suspect that we will be good not but great. But the following several years could rival the Laettner Hurley Hill years. Of course, injuries and the NBA could foil that.

It seems that Duke's best teams have had a strong inside scorer; ie, Brand, Shel, Laettner. Of course, Laettner scored from everywhere and was, incidentially, a skinny tall guy. If Singler (a skinny tall guy) ends up as good as Laettner, then we are in good shape. Unless he goes NBA soon.

I wonder if Laettner would have stayed all four years . . .

[Jumbo]

A lot of you are missing my general point. The bottom line is that there are a lot of ways to play effective. People need to get this traditional view of basketball out of their heads. Is a big man nice? Sure. Is it necessary? Not at all. Is rest nice? Sure. Is it necessary? No.
I posted during the Tournament how many teams played seven guys are fewer and reached the Sweet 16. I just showed you how small and shallow the Suns went in a 48-minute game at the professional level, where there's far less room to manipulate the game through coaching, because everyone is very talented.

Duke has a number of really good players next year. As long as they learn to play as a team, at both ends of the floor, Duke will be fine. You can compensate for a lack of size or a lack of speed or a lack of some other inherent biological quality in plenty of ways. Duke has more than enough players with the skills to do just that, so long as the team plays as one. That was a problem last year, and must improve next year. And it's on the coaching staff. So I don't care if Duke is playing small or big, deep or shallow, as long as Duke finds a style that plays to its strengths and involves everyone playing as a team.

Finally, just a repeated side note to the people who are already whining about depth again. Duke will have 11 recruited players next year, which is the most the program's had since 2002-03. That year, Duke went anywhere from 9-11 deep, depending on the game. Prior to that, the last time Duke had so many players was 1997-98. That team had nine players average 12.6 mpg or more, plus Taymon Domzalski and Ricky Price. (Nate James got hurt and only played six games). I've said this a thousand times, and maybe I should make it my signature, but in general, when K has had close to a full group of scholarship players, he's gone with what most people would call a "deep" bench. The only times he hasn't has been when there's a major cut-off between, say, players #7 and #8.
Next year, Duke will -- without a doubt -- play at least seven guys regularly (Paulus, Scheyer, Nelson, Henderson, Zoubek, Thomas and Singler). Unless something really weird happens, and there's major separatin between Thomas and McClure, Dave will be in the rotation too. That's a definite eight. After that, Smith, King and Pocius have to prove that they are close to on par with the other eight guys. If they are, they'll play. If not, Duke will still have depth, because they'll be available, regardless. Now stop worrying about this stuff, already.

[unexpected]

If Singler is as good as Laettner, we'll be in good shape? Comparisons on both being a skinny white guy? Well, duh.

Every year we're wayyy over-optimistic in our expectations. I remember last year, I basically said that Zoubek was going to be a non-entity, and posters were ready to commit me (he's going to be the next Gminski!). get real.

Remember when Pocius was supposed to be ACC freshman of the year?

Taylor King wins my "player most likely to be hyped up pre-season that ends up totally underwhelming next year" award.

I think Zoubek will play more, but I don't think he will start. I think him and McClure will rotate for "first big off the bench" responsibilities.

My lineup:

Paulus, Nelson, Henderson, Singler, Thomas

Nelson, Henderson will start, but Scheyer will get the same amount of minutes as both these two (maybe slightly less).

Singler, Thomas, ZouClure will take care of big man duties. I think McClure is first one to come off the bench for the big men, unless matchup dictates otherwise (opposing team has center 6'10"+).

I think Pocius gets the shaft this year, again. We have too many good guards, and I'd rather see Nelson/Henderson/Scheyer on the floor at any point that Pocius.

Smith will get the opportunity to play PG early in the season, but I think his minutes will be pared down as we hit heart of ACC schedule. Paulus will be playing massive minutes, Scheyer will back him up. If Smith turns out to be competent as the backup PG, I think he takes away further from Pocius's minutes.

I just don't see a place for TK with the guys we have. He's going to have a hard time getting off the bench, especially with Singler. We like to play the 3 guard lineup, and I don't see TK playing SF. Singler basically has his position right now.

While he could be Singler's primary backup, I don't think he's strong enough defensively to handle the tasks, especially with us being undersized. Team defense is going to be very important next year, and TK, not known for being a strong defender, is going to to be the odd man out. His strength is shooting, but we have that in spades.

[mgtr]

I agree with the sense of many other posters that we cannot predict very well the success or failure of incoming freshmen. We cannot even predict very well how the rising sophomores will improve. We do have a reasonable handle on the other players, who are not likely to change too much (possible exception Pocius -- for the better).
Given all that uncertainty, we do have two terrific classes (frosh and soph), a reasonable (but not great) nucleus of upperclassmen, and a fantastic head coach and coaching staff.
Its enough to make me yearn for the season to start!

[dw0827]

If Singler is as good as Laettner, we'll be in good shape? Comparisons on both being a skinny white guy? Well, duh.

I shoulda used the sarcasm indicator. No way will Singler be another Laettner at Duke. Thats really my point. He'll be long gone if he begin to show that kind of talent. So basically we're left with no inside presence with the "small ball" lineups people here are talking about.

I understand what Jumbo is saying. If they play team ball, then it matters less whether they are tall, short, skinny, or fat. Up to a point. They can be very good . . . but not elite. Not great. For that, they need the inside presence, both offensively and defensively. Thats why I see the progress of Zoubek and Thomas as being the key next year if we are really going to challenge. Singler, IMO, will not stand up well to the ACC pounding he'd take as a 4 or 5. Its really really tough for a freshman.

[ACCBBallFan]

Morrison even as a diabetic stood up well to the pounding, and I am confident Kyle Singler will too.

Point is unless Duke uses this year to develop the 4-year guys like Zoubek instead of throwing Singler in the center slot like they did Josh last year, Duke will never have the horses to choose whether to play a traditional game and will always have to revert to the lineups being proposed, which Jumbo does not want referred to as small ball.

If instead Duke kept Singler and Lance at their natural position and used Zoubek at his natural position, then Zoubek would get better and recruiting guys who want to primarily be Singler's replacement but occasionally back up Zoubek would be easier.

The only gimmick needed would to play Taylor King in his not so natural position on defense (where he would probably be more effective) but keep him beyond the 3 line on Offense. Instead of a Josh point- forward, Taylor King would be a wing-center.

Chances are guys like Singler and Monroe will only stay two years, give or take one. So if Duke wants to cover its bases, win a couple less games this year by playing Zoubek and King, and it will pay dividends in the years Duke is even stronger and has a bona fide experienced center and the current nucleaus plus a Monroe to go all the way.

ACC is weak this year and Duke will still have a good W-L % and make the tournament. Regardless of which lineup Duke plays, it will need some luck in the NCAA tourney on matchups, 3's falling etc. but will have more choices to match up well against any opponent with a productive 7 footer and a long range threat like King who has actually played during the season.

I also agree with the posters who are saying Taylor King will probably sit because he is not as adept at defending perimeter guys. However Duke could leverage Taylor's offensive prowess if he proves as adept as Lance, Singler, and certainly McClure defending the opposing center.

I lke Marty but don't think he get s whole lot more minutes since he has so many talented guys ahead of him. He can't play PG and he can't defend the center which are the two areas Duke is lightest in. King may be able to do the latter and get some PT.

Once Duke qualifies for the NCAAs albeit possibly with a slightly lower seed if record suffers a few games to develop Zoubek and others, then K can shorten his bench, go with his best 6 as Jumbo started this thread with etc. but at least the other guys are ready when needed in NCAAs and next couple of years.

Either way, Duke probably ends up about the same place when all is said and done in NCAA tourney but one way produces better probability of success in future years and in recruiting.

[Jumbo]

ACCBballFan,
I still don't think you understand what I'm saying. Basketball is about getting your best players on the court as often as possible. Duke's best players next year, almost surely, will be Singler, Scheyer, Henderson, Nelson and Paulus. It is ridiculous to be too tied to the notion of "position" at the expense of putting quality players on the court and making the other team adjust.

Now, I'm not saying Duke shouldn't play Zoubek. Duke should, because I think he'll make enough strides to warrant playing time. But that also doesn't mean Duke should be afraid to play Thomas or Singler in the middle. Thomas is a 6'8" forward. How many teams are playing guys significantly taller or stronger in the middle? There's absolutely no reason why he shouldn't be able to guard any of them, particularly if Duke is playing good team D. And offensively, what's his role? It's not like he's a great ball-handler and shooter -- he'll be far more effective developing some post skills and a face-up jumper that he can hit off high screens or kick-outs.

And I'm not sure if you've seen Singler play, but he's got plenty of offensive skills on the low block. Meanwhile, he'd be a monster taking bigger players away from the hoop. And, on D, he is solid enough to guard most college post players. It's rare that he'll be up against skilled seven-footers with low-post skills. He can certainly hold his own defensively down low, depending on the matchups. He'd have trouble guarding a wide-body alone on the block, but that's why you send double teams.

Also, I never said Duke should, or will, play six guys. I pointed out that Phoenix played a short bench and a small lineup because that's a common complaint around here. But I'm absolutely positive Duke will play at least eight guys in close games, am sure that in early season games, at least nine guys will get significant action. I think Pocius will struggle to find minutes, given the logjam of guards, and I think King has too many guys his size ahead of him to be a factor, unless certain situations call for a shooting specialist.

But, the bottom line is that Duke has a lot of options. And while one of those options -- certainly -- is for Zoubek to develop into a low-post threat in the middle, Duke cna be effective playing other ways too.

[duketaylor]

I think a lot of folks here don't realize the type of player Nolan Smith is; he will play lots of minutes and many at the PG position, I think. He, like, Singler, is just too talented to keep off the court. I look forward to attending K's coaches camp to see them, although I may be on campus a whole lot by mid-summer and be able to watch pick-up games and stuff Nolan's quickness and overall game will land him 20+ minutes/game, IMO.
I also completely agree with Jumbo about how many ways one can skin a cat. Even without Josh, we're more athletic now. I really think it's gonna be interesting how K will use the talent on this team as he can really go for speed/athleticism or go big/bulky or anywhere in between. Looking forward to how we use what we have and who's improved enough to get more time.
GO DEVILS!!
duke "Coach" taylor sounds pretty nice

[Indoor66]

The scenario of constant "rebuilding" and acceptance of losing many games to "develop" for next year is repugnant to me. Basketball requires 5 players + 1, 2 or 3 substitutes. We recruit top notch talent. There is no reason to believe that we cannot win a substantial portion of our games nearly every year.

We get hit by the transfers and the early entries and occasional chemistry issues. That is reality. We also bring in talent. There are going to be years like '06-'07 with a greater number of loses than our recent norm. I see that year as an aberration and not a trend or beginning of a pattern. Look only back to the mid-nineties for a comparable example.

As a generalization and not a pointed comment, I sometimes sense that some are a lot more impatient than others. I also sense an approach that more is more when sometimes more is less. I guess passing years temper expectations and acceptance moderates anger.

The more I learn the less I know.

[SilkyJ]

So if Duke wants to cover its bases, win a couple less games this year by playing Zoubek and King, and it will pay dividends in the years Duke is even stronger and has a bona fide experienced center and the current nucleaus plus a Monroe to go all the way.

...

Either way, Duke probably ends up about the same place when all is said and done in NCAA tourney but one way produces better probability of success in future years and in recruiting.

I certainly understand what you are saying, and possibly even agree, but I can tell you this: it won't happen, at least not for the reasons you are giving.

This year will be a development year for Zou, so why not get some of those players (like king) more playing time so the next year they can really contribute. I like the argument, but that is not Krzyzewski's philosophy, and it will not happen (and I realize you are just saying that you would like to see it happen, and are not predicting it). If K had this philosophy he would have played Zou a lot more last year because he KNEW McBob was leaving and that Zou would have to play major minutes this year. K's focus is on doing whatever is best for the team during the CURRENT year.

[Indoor66]

Too rational for most. Your post would believable if the sky was falling - as it must be in their world!

Thanks for the good sense, perspective and chiding of the doom, gloom and boom boys.

[ACCBBallFan]

I think a lot of folks here don't realize the type of player Nolan Smith is; he will play lots of minutes and many at the PG position, I think. He, like, Singler, is just too talented to keep off the court. I look forward to attending K's coaches camp to see them, although I may be on campus a whole lot by mid-summer and be able to watch pick-up games and stuff Nolan's quickness and overall game will land him 20+ minutes/game, IMO.
I also completely agree with Jumbo about how many ways one can skin a cat. Even without Josh, we're more athletic now. I really think it's gonna be interesting how K will use the talent on this team as he can really go for speed/athleticism or go big/bulky or anywhere in between. Looking forward to how we use what we have and who's improved enough to get more time.
GO DEVILS!!
duke "Coach" taylor sounds pretty nice

Looking forward to your clinic and pickup game reports, Chuck.

[kydevil]

I certainly understand what you are saying, and possibly even agree, but I can tell you this: it won't happen, at least not for the reasons you are giving.

This year will be a development year for Zou, so why not get some of those players (like king) more playing time so the next year they can really contribute. I like the argument, but that is not Krzyzewski's philosophy, and it will not happen (and I realize you are just saying that you would like to see it happen, and are not predicting it). If K had this philosophy he would have played Zou a lot more last year because he KNEW McBob was leaving and that Zou would have to play major minutes this year. K's focus is on doing whatever is best for the team during the CURRENT year.

He did try to play Zou some, it's just he obvious he wasn't ready i.e. traveling almost everytime he tried a low post move. K just couldn't throw him out there to the dogs, he knew he wasn't ready and that he needed at least another year to be ready to go!

[pless55]

We should score alot more points than last year. I think we will make it to the Sweet Sixteen.

[gw67]

If that happens, I suspect that we will not get far. Thats 4 guards and skinny tall guy. We will get creamed. With no inside presence of any consequence, opponents will guard the 3 point line like stink on a dog. Don't expect alot of 3's from us consistently enough to win regularly.

IMO the key to the year is whether or not Zoubek and/or Thomas can provide some consistent inside scoring. Without it, there's no balance. Hard to win with 3's when the other team knows thats what you have to do to win.

The five best players on the team, IMO, will be Paulus, Nelson, Scheyer, Henderson and Singler. I expect Coach K to start four of these youngsters and to have 2-3 of them on the court at all times during close games. Either Henderson or Scheyer can play the Ginobili role off the bench and Zoubek/Thomas/McClure/King will complement the core players in the frontcourt, adding some size and different skill sets, while Smith/Pocious will complement the core players on the backcourt. A lot depends on the development of the sophs and the readiness of the freshmen but I foresee some small ball next year where the Devils play four guards/wings and a "big" man.

gw67

[SilkyJ]

He did try to play Zou some, it's just he obvious he wasn't ready i.e. traveling almost everytime he tried a low post move. K just couldn't throw him out there to the dogs, he knew he wasn't ready and that he needed at least another year to be ready to go!

My point exactly. When it was clear Zou wasn't completely ready he played him less and less b/c that gave the team the best chance for winning THAT year. Krzyzewski will do whatever he thinks gives the current team the best chance of winning come March, not come next march, which is what ACCBballfan would like to see if the current team doesnt have a chance at winning the title.

Kind of like how in the NFL owners will start pressing the coach to play the rookie QB once all chances of making the playoffs are gone. "This season is shot so let's develop for next year" mentality.

I don't really know where I stand personally, I just let Coach K do his thing and don't question it.

[ACCBBallFan]

ACCBballFan,
I still don't think you understand what I'm saying. Basketball is about getting your best players on the court as often as possible. Duke's best players next year, almost surely, will be Singler, Scheyer, Henderson, Nelson and Paulus. It is ridiculous to be too tied to the notion of "position" at the expense of putting quality players on the court and making the other team adjust.

Now, I'm not saying Duke shouldn't play Zoubek. Duke should, because I think he'll make enough strides to warrant playing time. But that also doesn't mean Duke should be afraid to play Thomas or Singler in the middle. Thomas is a 6'8" forward. How many teams are playing guys significantly taller or stronger in the middle? There's absolutely no reason why he shouldn't be able to guard any of them, particularly if Duke is playing good team D. And offensively, what's his role? It's not like he's a great ball-handler and shooter -- he'll be far more effective developing some post skills and a face-up jumper that he can hit off high screens or kick-outs.

...

But, the bottom line is that Duke has a lot of options. And while one of those options -- certainly -- is for Zoubek to develop into a low-post threat in the middle, Duke cna be effective playing other ways too.

Jumbo - I understand what you are saying and I agree with you that coach K will probably play his best 5, who are Paulus, Scheyer, Nelson, Henderson and Singler.

But on your point about Lance should have enough size to defend ...

I have seen various heights and weights listed for Taylor King and Kyle Singler.

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recru...ecruitId=42937

Taylor King SF 6’ 7” 225 ESPN 150 Rank #17
Kyle Singler SF 6’8” 215 ESPN 150 rank #4

http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/ncb/roster?collegeId=150

#42 Lance Thomas F 6’8” 215 (same size as Singler, 10 pounds lighter than King)
#14 David McClure F 6’6” 200 pounds (25 lighter than King).
#15 Gerald Henderson g-F 6'4" 215 pounds (surprisingly as heavy as Lance and Singler)

So size-wise, King is as equipped as Lance or Singler to defend the post, and probably a worse perimeter defender.

So I was just suggesting a way to leverage Taylor King’s 3 ball threat about 10 minutes a game to go with Zoubek's 15 and Lance's 15 to scrounge out 40 minutes or one full time equivalent "big", or Jumbo if you prefer.

Just concerned that Singler may be too valuable to risk having him defend a center. While Zoubek/Lance/King can be good in part of their game, none are as complete a player as Singler who could be backed up by Lance and McClure at the power forward, as well as Henderson.

You make a good point though that playing Henderson at the so-called 4 and Singler at the 5, does alleviate the over supply situation of wing players.

What you are saying for Lance/Singler is what I was saying for King, but just as a 10 minute change of pace to throw at the other team, not all in one stretch but 2 or 3 times during the game totaling about 10 minutes.

So Paulus, Scheyer, Nelson, Henderson and Singler get the bulk of the minutes. Then the question of minutes for players 6-11 is subjective.

Zoubek and Lance may get the next most minutes since Duke is short on big men. I don’t expect this to be more than about 15 minutes each as both are foul prone.

Duke Taylor may be right that Nolan Smith ends up being the guy that subs in for Paulus when Duke’s foe has too many penetrating guards.

McClure has most years in the Duke system, does the little things, is an energy guy, etc.

Marty looks great in international competition and seems like he would have gotten more PT last year if not for the ankle injury. Not sure he will though since he usually subbed in for Nelson when he was tired on in foul trouble. This year, Nolan may be the defensive stopper when Demarcus is out, rather than Marty being the offensive spark at expense of defense, though he has gotten better.

I actually like so-called small ball since as you say it forces the other team to react, and quickens the pace of the game. Just trying to find a way to squeeze 10 or so productive minutes on Offense out of Taylor King, wherever he will be the least liability on defense.

The only problem with starting your best 5 is that there will then be a dropoff when you sub which reinforces K's reluctance to sub. If instead there was a center by committee except at crunch time, then the best 5 could be spread across the other 4 positions, not 80% of the time each, but a lot with Smith, Pocius and McClure getting some minutes there also.

So if Zoubek/Lance King log 40 as centers by committee with vastly different styles on offense but same responsibility on defense, that leaves 160 with the top 5 perhaps getting 130 or more of those to average 26 and the other 3 subs split the other 30 minutes or less to average 10 minutes or less.

I fully realize that 11 guys will not all average 10 minutes or more. Just an initial target in early season that will diminish in close games, ACC play and NCAA tourney.

[unexpected]

I just don't see Nolan getting a lot of minutes. My head keeps reminding me of Dockery sitting on the bench his frosh year. I mean didn't Dockery average 30+ points a game his senior year in high school, and was the 3rd best point guard in the class?

Jumbo, do you think Smith is going to get a lot of PT next year?