Originally Posted by
Olympic Fan
I was thinking about the Braves' odd batting order yesterday and about the stubborn insistence at keeping Heyward at No. 6 or No. 7 in the lineup.
Obviously, he's getting a lot of RBIs, but I suspect that's due to his efficiency with RISP, rather than his spot in the lineup.
Lineup does matter -- Bill James did a pretty good study of how changing the lineup can have a huge impact on runs scored. He was looking at the question of whether it was better to spread your best hitters out in the lineup or to bunch them together (by far, the latter strategy is more effective).
It's pretty clear that a team should start with at least a couple of good OBP guys at the top (it helps is they can run, but getting on base is MUCH more valuable). The best all-around hitter should bat third, followed by a couple of guys with strong SLUG.
Bobby Cox has been hamstrung this year because a couple of guys who were pretty effective in the past have been awful -- Escobar (.295 OBP; .266 SLUG), McLouth (.299 OBP, 297 SLUG) and worst of all Diaz (.226 OBP; .240 SLUG). Cabrera hasn't brought much (.308 OBP, .250 SLUG).
So what can Cox do?
Well, I'd move Chipper up to No. 2 in the lineup. He's no longer a No. 3 hitter (his slugging has been falling for years and is now down to a mediocre .353). But he still gets on base -- with 14 hits and 18 walks, his OBP is a solid .372.
Prado (.414 OBP, .475 SLUG) should be No. 3, followed by Heyward (.388 OBP, .580 SLUG), McCann (.395 OBP, .394 SLUG) and Glaus (.344 OBP, .338 SLUG) ... I can see the arguement for Chipper-Prado-McCann-Heywood-Glaus, but I like Heyward batting right behind a Prado who is on the base all the time. With Chipper and Prado batting right in front of him, he would drive in a lot more runs. Then he has McCann batting behind him to protect him.
And if the Braves could find a decent leadoff hitter -- McLouth showed signs of that in the past -- the offense would take off.