Braves 2010 season thread

[Olympic Fan]

Please win and then have the Padres lose... please!

Agree that today is a must-win if the Braves hope to get out of the first round of the playoffs. Hansen pitches today against a kid with little experience or success ... tomorrow, they are scheduled to use Hudson.

If they clinch today, then they'll have Hudson and Lowe for the first two games of the playoff ... with Hansen ready to come back for game three.

Geography works against us Sunday -- even if the magic number is down to one, you have to go with Hudson because the Braves game starts two and a half hours before the Giants/Padres.

PS Infante got five more PAs last night, giving him 497 for the season. He could get to 502 today, qualifying for the batting race. Unfortunately, he went 0-for-4 (with a sacrifice), dropping his average to .320. He's going to qualify for the title, but he's not going to win it.

[devildeac]

Braves gack up another one and Pads beat the Giants. One game season tomorrow. Blecch.

[Highlander]

Ugh. So the Braves get crushed by the Phillies at home, and the Padres beat the Giants on the road. Worst case scenario for the Braves is now reality. They have managed to dump a 2 game lead with 3 to play, and are now dead even with the Padres. As I see it, here are the remaining scenarios for tomorrow's games:

1. Padres Win, Braves Win - Padres, Giants, and Braves all tie with identical records. Padres play Giants in 1 game playoff for division, and loser plays 1 game playoff vs. Braves for the wild card.
2. Padres Win, Braves Lose - Padres and Giants tie with identical records. Padres play Giants in 1 game playoff, winner takes the division, and loser is the wild card.
3. Padres Lose, Braves Win - Giants win NL West and Braves are the Wild Card.
4. Padres Lose, Braves Lose - Giants Win NL West, Padres play 1 game playoff vs. Braves for Wild Card

The Braves HAVE TO WIN to be guaranteed a spot in at least a playoff game, and the only scenario where the Braves avoid a playoff game completely is if they win and the Padres lose. Given the way they're playing against the Phillies right now, they certainly don't look to advance very far in the playoffs should they make it.

It's Win or Go Home Boys!

[Duvall]

[*]Padres Win, Braves Lose - Padres and Giants tie with identical records. Padres play Giants in 1 game playoff, winner takes the division, and loser is the wild card.[/LIST]

They don't play a playoff game when both teams are going to the postseason. The division title is decided by tiebreakers.

[Olympic Fan]

Duval is right ... if the Padres win and the Braves lose Sunday, then there will be no playoff game -- the Padres will win the division (based on a better head-to-head with the Giants) and the Giants will be the wild card.

Highlander, you have everything else right ...

Need to win tomorrow -- Hamel is going to start for the Phillies. He's apparently only going to throw 80 pitches or so, still, he's pretty tough. Of course, he can't be any tougher than the kid who shut us out Saturday.

Hudson will have to be at his best ...

[Olympic Fan]

Just to sum up how we stand. There are four possible outcomes today in the two games that matter:

25 percent chance the Braves are eliminated (if Atlanta loses and the Padres beat the Giants).

25 percent chance the Braves win the wild card (if Atlanta wins and San Diego loses to the Giants)

50 percent chance that the Braves will have a playoff game for the wild card.

If the Braves win and the Padres win, then its a three-way tie and the Padres-Giants would play Monday in San Diego for the NL West title with the loser playing the Braves Tuesday in Atlanta for the wild card.

If the Braves lose and the Padries lose, then the Padres would face the Braves Monday in Atlanta for the wild card.

The playoff matchups are a total mess -- the Phillies are the top seed in the NL, but might not know their NLDS opponent until late Tuesday (since they would face the Padres or the Giants if they are the wild card, but not the Braves).

Frankly, as a Braves fan, I would LOVE to face the Phillies in the NLCS -- no, I wouldn't have any hope of beaing them (not after this recent 0-5 run), but it would mean we got in the playoffs and won the NLDS.

That would be a pretty positive outcome for me!

PS One last story line to wrap up: Infante has 501 plate appearances going into today's game. He's scheduled to lead off again for the Braves, so he'll quality for the batting race with his first plate appearance ... although if the Braves have a playoff game, he'll need to get to 505 PA to qualify. The bad news is that he's at .320 and has almost no chance of catching Gonzales (.336) for the batting title. He might pass Votto (.323) for second place.

[Duvall]

Braves win 8-7. The Phillies are terrifying even at half-speed.

The Braves will play again, regardless of today's Giants-Padres game. If the Padres win, the Braves will play an elimination game Tuesday in Atlanta; if the Giants win the Braves will play Thursday in San Francisco.

[Olympic Fan]

Giants closed out the 3-0 victory, eliminating the Padres.

The Braves are in -- without a playoff game!!!

The Braves indeed open against the Giants in San Fran ... I assume it will be Lowe vs. Lincecom.

A great accomplishment just making it ... it would be nice to advance to the NLCS.

Braves were 4-3 againast the Giants this year -- 1-2 in San Fran in the 3rd-4th-5th game of the season (Lowe won there ... Lincecom beat Kawakami); 3-1 in Atlanta late in July (Jurrjens beat Lincecom; Hudson beat Cain; Lowe beat Sanchez ... the Braves only loss was Moylan's in relief).

Got to think we have a chance -- the Giants are almost as offensively challenged as the Braves.

[PSurprise]

What kind of chances do you give Bobby Cox as manager of the Year? I think he did a heck of a job with this team this year. Of course, there's some sentimentality with his last season...any guesses?

[Duvall]

General consensus has Lowe going in Game 1 (Thursday). After that, you could see Hudson in Game 2 (Friday) on full rest, with Hanson in Game 3 (Sunday). Game 4, if necessary, is where it could get tricky - the best option would probably be to have Lowe go again on short rest, with Hudson possibly going again in Game 5 (Wednesday).

[Jarhead]

Considering how little I have been able to watch the Braves this season, now I will get to watch every game they play for some unknown number of games. Best of luck to Bobby. Mr. Cox, please make it work so that I can see at least 11 games with a win in the last one.

[Olympic Fan]

General consensus has Lowe going in Game 1 (Thursday). After that, you could see Hudson in Game 2 (Friday) on full rest, with Hanson in Game 3 (Sunday). Game 4, if necessary, is where it could get tricky - the best option would probably be to have Lowe go again on short rest, with Hudson possibly going again in Game 5 (Wednesday).

Both Lowe and Hudson pitched on short rest (three days off between starts) down the stretch and both handled it pretty well. I think you have the sequence right -- Lowe Thursday, Hudson Friday (both on plenty of rest), Hansen on Sunday (well rested), then Lowe again Monday on three days rest. If there is a game five, it would be Wednesday, then Hudson could go on full rest.

[JasonEvans]

What kind of chances do you give Bobby Cox as manager of the Year? I think he did a heck of a job with this team this year. Of course, there's some sentimentality with his last season...any guesses?

Sentimentality may work in his favor, but it is awful hard to pick against Dusty Baker (Reds) and Bud Black (Padres). Personally, I think Black was a lock to win it until his team went into the tank in September. I think all 3 of Cox, Black, and Baker will get multiple 1st place votes -- heck Charlie Manuel (dealt with tons of injuries), and a couple other guys may get first place votes too. It should be a very close race.

-Jason "I think Black will win it because Cox (4 times) and Baker (3) have won Manager of the Year several times in the past" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Both Lowe and Hudson pitched on short rest (three days off between starts) down the stretch and both handled it pretty well. I think you have the sequence right -- Lowe Thursday, Hudson Friday (both on plenty of rest), Hansen on Sunday (well rested), then Lowe again Monday on three days rest. If there is a game five, it would be Wednesday, then Hudson could go on full rest.

A month ago, who would have thought that Lowe would be one of the best starters in baseball. He has been lights out lately and the Braves have a very good shot at making noise in the playoffs if he continues!

What do folks think Bobby should do at 3B? After several brutally bad days from Conrad, he moved Conrad to 2B yesterday and played Infante at 3B. Do we have any other options at this point? What about Hinske? He came up as a 3B and played it a little bit last year when he was on the Yankees. The defense has been horrid down the stretch.

--Jason "Oh, and the offense has been godawful too " Evans

[northernduke]

We made it to the playoffs - heck of an accomplishment with 2 All-Star caliber 3rd basemen going down with injuries this season. One game and one series at a time.

For perspective, St. Louis lost 17 games in Sept/Oct in 2006 and went on to win the WS. We lost 16 this year. I don't think we're a favorite by any means, nor are we the Cardinals team from 2006, but momentum going into the playoffs isn't everything. Maybe we can get some magic on our side and put a run together. We already have the chemistry...

It's been 5 years since ATL has had postseason baseball and I'm all jacked up for Thursday's first pitch!

[camion]

I think Bobby should get serious consideration in the manager of the year voting. The team has dealt with a lot of injuries this year. Losing Chipper was the biggest blow, but there have been many others. Consider time and production lost by:

Kris Medlen
Jair Jurrjens
Eric O’Flaherty
Matt Diaz
Jason Heyward
Troy Glaus
Takahashi Saito
Martin Prado
Nate McClouth

Look at the Braves opening day starters. Compare that with the final game. We have only two of the same starting position players and only one batting in the same position. The team has had a serious makeover during the season and still made the playoffs.

Cabrera, M.  LF     Infante, O.  3B
Prado, M.  2b       Heyward, J.  RF
Jones, C.  3b       Lee, D.     1B
McCann, B.  C       McCann, B.  C
Glaus, T.  1B       Diaz, M.  LF
Escobar, Y.  SS     Gonzalez, A.  SS
Heyward, J.  RF     Conrad, B.  2B
McClouth, N.  CF    Ankiel R.  CF

Lowe, D.  P         Hudson T.  P

Wow, I didn't realize when I started writing this that the changes had been as extensive as they turned out to be.

[kmspeaks]

We made it to the playoffs - heck of an accomplishment with 2 All-Star caliber 3rd basemen going down with injuries this season. One game and one series at a time.

For perspective, St. Louis lost 17 games in Sept/Oct in 2006 and went on to win the WS. We lost 16 this year. I don't think we're a favorite by any means, nor are we the Cardinals team from 2006, but momentum going into the playoffs isn't everything. Maybe we can get some magic on our side and put a run together. We already have the chemistry...

It's been 5 years since ATL has had postseason baseball and I'm all jacked up for Thursday's first pitch!

I'm with you on this one. Just get in and anything can happen.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insid...ory?id=5608355
Insider article (sorry) but it talks about that Cardinals team as well.

Now check out a fascinating study by Dave Studeman of the sabermetrics website The Hardball Times. Ten years of data show that when teams face off in the playoffs, September records actually have a negative correlation with winning the series.

So there is reason to hope.

[theAlaskanBear]

We made it to the playoffs - heck of an accomplishment with 2 All-Star caliber 3rd basemen going down with injuries this season. One game and one series at a time.

For perspective, St. Louis lost 17 games in Sept/Oct in 2006 and went on to win the WS. We lost 16 this year. I don't think we're a favorite by any means, nor are we the Cardinals team from 2006, but momentum going into the playoffs isn't everything. Maybe we can get some magic on our side and put a run together. We already have the chemistry...

It's been 5 years since ATL has had postseason baseball and I'm all jacked up for Thursday's first pitch!

The Cardinals were wracked with injuries all year, in particular the demise of our closer Isringhausen in September...if I am remembering correctly, our bullpen was a mess, and Izzy tried to pitch through his injury which made it that much worse. When we hit the playoffs, things stabilized because a) Adam Wainwright stepped into the closer role and dominated and b) our team got healthy. That NLCS series versus the Mets is my all-time favorite...

[OldPhiKap]

Just got my tix to Game 3 -- Keep Bobby Cox's hope alive!!!!