ESPN Bracket Predictor Says Duke Will Win It All!

[licc85]

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/tourn...3fid%3d5020740

can't argue with that.

[killerleft]

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/tourn...3fid%3d5020740

can't argue with that.

Plus, my dog picked Duke to win it all. He said it would be a "ruff" ride, though.

[superdave]

I just spent 15 minutes not working and going through this in detail. It has a handful of ways to predict games:

1- Historical matchups of seeds (ie Purdue #4, Duke #1 and #1's vs. #4's all-time)
2- Similar games which means actual games played between teams with similar style, tempo etc,.
3- Power model based on scoring margin, strength of schedule.
4- Simulation model where they actually simulate the game a bunch of times.

The predictor gives you a % of 100 that one team will win based on those factors. So you get 4 %'s for each game based on the above models.

Duke is fairly strong vs. Purdue, a little less so against Baylor (the predictor thinks their style is bad for Duke), and good odds vs. Kentucky and Syracuse.

I think the guy who did this for Espn used the model to push K State over Cuse, but I went the other way. Either matchup in the Finals...Duke is predicted to win.

I seem to recall this predictor tool having Duke win a close game over Villnova last year. Two other points: Duke seems to be loved by computer models in 2010 and the ACC sucks (no teams left other than Duke).

Caveat Emptor.

[MChambers]

This predictor had Kansas winning last week. Moreover, it's just saying that Duke is the most team to win, not that it is probable that Duke will win.

Don't get me wrong: I like Duke's chances as much as anyone's, but I don't want to get carried away.

[superdave]

This predictor had Kansas winning last week. Moreover, it's just saying that Duke is the most team to win, not that it is probable that Duke will win.

Don't get me wrong: I like Duke's chances as much as anyone's, but I don't want to get carried away.

I think it had Kansas beating Duke in the Finals last week.

I think Duke would need someone to do the dirty work of beating Kentucky for us. Bad matchup with their guards.

[Mrezt]

I love these kinds of things but make sure to take them with a (though not small) grain of salt.

In my opinion, the emotional and mental aspect play a pretty important role too. You can calculate how a freshman's stats in previous games will affect the game that will be played in the future, but you can not calculate if he is nervous because its a huge game or any emotional situation he may be in.

Same with kenpom, though i freaking love that website. Like last year, these simulators can look at Hendersons stats from the whole year and predict how he might play based off this, but they cant predict that he will have a once-in-a-while off game (i know there was more to it than this, but just throwing out an example).


However, i love the results of this one

[devildeac]

Plus, my dog picked Duke to win it all. He said it would be a "ruff" ride, though.

I think he's "barking up the wrong tree."

[Mr Blue Devil]

Season's over! Give us the trophy and banner now!!!

[mgtr]

Season's over! Give us the trophy and banner now!!!

I agree completely. Lets just hang the banner and move on to --- the next play!!!!!

[OldPhiKap]

I agree completely. Lets just hang the banner and move on to --- the next play!!!!!

Duke: Helms Trophy Winner, 2010.



(Not to be voted on or awarded until 2014).

[RainingThrees]

I think he's "barking up the wrong tree."

Pun intended.