Can Baylor Beat Duke?

[Vasherized]

I'm from Big 12 country.

I've suffered watching Texas this year pretty much every day since late December save for one decent win on the road against an average Okie State squad. #1 to unranked in three short months. A steady decline without any answers. Perhaps we should relocate to the DC area?

After beating Baylor 24 times in a row for eight years, Texas lost three times to the Bears this year.

Why?

Because we found out that Texas isn't very good but we also found out this isn't your average Baylor team.

Acy and Udoh are plus athletes in the paint that really attack the glass on both ends, block shots, and manufacture buckets. Dunn and Carter are great shooters, they can take any guard off the dribble and always manage to keep the big guys involved. They're experienced, hit free throws, and enjoy the pressure. Drew has done a hell of a job taming what once was a frenetic, undisciplined team into one capable of making a deep tourney run.

So assuming Duke beats A&M or Siena to make it to the Elite 8 (both dangerous in their own right) and Baylor can get past Notre Dame and Nova why do 96% of you feel Duke is going to make it to the Final Four?

Is this really one of those special Duke teams? I'm impressed with what Coach K has done with the three-headed monster but can't get that Georgetown game out of my head.

Can Duke Get Through The Dirty South?

[dukelifer]

I'm from Big 12 country.

I've suffered watching Texas this year pretty much every day since late December save for one decent win on the road against an average Okie State squad. #1 to unranked in three short months. A steady decline without any answers. Perhaps we should relocate to the DC area?

After beating Baylor 24 times in a row for eight years, Texas lost three times to the Bears this year.

Why?

Because we found out that Texas isn't very good but we also found out this isn't your average Baylor team.

Acy and Udoh are plus athletes in the paint that really attack the glass on both ends, block shots, and manufacture buckets. Dunn and Carter are great shooters, they can take any guard off the dribble and always manage to keep the big guys involved. They're experienced, hit free throws, and enjoy the pressure. Drew has done a hell of a job taming what once was a frenetic, undisciplined team into one capable of making a deep tourney run.

So assuming Duke beats A&M or Siena to make it to the Elite 8 (both dangerous in their own right) and Baylor can get past Notre Dame and Nova why do 96% of you feel Duke is going to make it to the Final Four?

Is this really one of those special Duke teams? I'm impressed with what Coach K has done with the three-headed monster but can't get that Georgetown game out of my head.

Can Duke Get Through The Dirty South?

Most here hope that Duke gets to the FF. Most any team can beat any team on a good night. If Baylor gets that far they will be on a roll- but this is a team that has never been there and done that- So you will just need to wait and see.

[Vasherized]

Good point. Baylor hasn't made it past the first round since, oh, never?

It's hard to hold much stock in a team without any skins going against a HOF coach with a few rings.

But just looking at the matchups, if Baylor got that far the monkey is presumably off their back already.

[InSpades]

So assuming Duke beats A&M or Siena to make it to the Elite 8 (both dangerous in their own right) and Baylor can get past Notre Dame and Nova why do 96% of you feel Duke is going to make it to the Final Four?

This is a Duke site... do you really expect Duke fans not to think their #1 seeded Duke team is going to make the final four? A better question is why the other 4% don't think Duke is going to make it!

Of course Baylor can beat Duke, they are a #3 seed for a reason. Of course Duke is a #1 seed for a reason too.

[mgtr]

Right, but as they say, that is why they play the game.

[Kedsy]

Good point. Baylor hasn't made it past the first round since, oh, never?

It's hard to hold much stock in a team without any skins going against a HOF coach with a few rings.

But just looking at the matchups, if Baylor got that far the monkey is presumably off their back already.

The player matchups aren't as good for Baylor as it might appear. Duke this season has had trouble when the other team's 4 is a perimeter threat (and I haven't seen Baylor, but from what I've read that's not them). Otherwise, Duke wins when it defends better than its opponent (which so far has been most of the time). According to Pomeroy, Baylor isn't an elite defensive team, so if this game happens (and it's what I picked in my pool) it should be a good, close game but I'd give Duke the edge because of their defense. Having said that, the wildcard might be the pseudo-home team advantage for Baylor.

[Vasherized]

I was actually surprised the 96% number was so low.

What has befallen Blue Devil Nation? Where is the faith?

[wacobluedevil]

I'm from Big 12 country.

I've suffered watching Texas this year pretty much every day since late December save for one decent win on the road against an average Okie State squad. #1 to unranked in three short months. A steady decline without any answers. Perhaps we should relocate to the DC area?

After beating Baylor 24 times in a row for eight years, Texas lost three times to the Bears this year.

Why?

Because we found out that Texas isn't very good but we also found out this isn't your average Baylor team.

Acy and Udoh are plus athletes in the paint that really attack the glass on both ends, block shots, and manufacture buckets. Dunn and Carter are great shooters, they can take any guard off the dribble and always manage to keep the big guys involved. They're experienced, hit free throws, and enjoy the pressure. Drew has done a hell of a job taming what once was a frenetic, undisciplined team into one capable of making a deep tourney run.

So assuming Duke beats A&M or Siena to make it to the Elite 8 (both dangerous in their own right) and Baylor can get past Notre Dame and Nova why do 96% of you feel Duke is going to make it to the Final Four?

Is this really one of those special Duke teams? I'm impressed with what Coach K has done with the three-headed monster but can't get that Georgetown game out of my head.

Can Duke Get Through The Dirty South?

As a Duke grad (and therefore diehard Duke fan) and a faculty member of Baylor, I can say that the Bears would present a similar challenge to Duke that Miami did (beginning with a troublesome zone that is not at all passive), plus an experienced starting five (two seniors, two juniors and a sophomore), real fire power in Dunn, Carter and Udoh, and a team that is healthy and playing its best ball right now.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

As a Duke grad (and therefore diehard Duke fan) and a faculty member of Baylor, I can say that the Bears would present a similar challenge to Duke that Miami did (beginning with a troublesome zone that is not at all passive), plus an experienced starting five (two seniors, two juniors and a sophomore), real fire power in Dunn, Carter and Udoh, and a team that is healthy and playing its best ball right now.

Baylor is a very good team and I have them going to the Elite 8 with us. They would be an amazing challenge for Duke, but I like Duke to go to the FF. Someone had mentioned this sounds like a Duke/LSU from '06 which was an awful matchup for us, but I think our team is built much differently and better for this type of matchup. That team was so reliant on Williams and Redick and no one else was ever willing to step up. We have 3 great scorers this year and we have Zoubs playing great ball and a much deeper front line to make sure our strengths stay as our strengths.

[RaineyDevil]

Easy answer: yes they can. Will they? Probably not...

[SCMatt33]

I think that a Duke-Baylor match-up would be a very interesting one. I have to say that I haven't seen much of Baylor this year, but from what I heard, they don't defend the three point line very well (they rank 157 in 3P% defense according to Pomeroy) which could be a big problem against Duke, especially since they also only rank 309 in creating turnovers on Pomeroy. Controlling the ball and making 3's are two things that Duke does very well. They also are mediocre (110th) at sending teams to the line, which would work in Duke's favor since Baylor defends the 2 pointer well and Duke doesn't shoot the two pointer well.

On the other end of the floor, Baylor has balanced scoring, both in terms of player contributions, and in terms of scoring 2's, 3's, and FT's, ranking in the middle of the country in percentage of points from all three. This will work heavily in Baylor's favor. In all 5 Duke losses, Teams were able to shoot and make 3's early, which opened up easy baskets inside or vice versa. Duke's defense tries to force teams to play an offensive game that they don't want to play. Since Baylor is so balanced, it would be tough for Duke to force them into an uncomfortable situation.

Baylor will need to hope that Duke misses open 3's and that the refs call a loose game on the offensive end, but if they play their game and don't try to force things against Duke's D, they will have a chance to score points. If this match-up occurs, I see this being one of the Duke games that is played in the 70's rather than the 50's and that gives Baylor a better chance. I'll repeat that I haven't watched Baylor play that much and I could be wrong, but I'm going by what the stats tell me.

Edit: Forgot to mention this, but rebounding will be very important. Both teams are very good at rebounding the offensive glass and second chance points could be an important stat in this match-up.

[YourLandlord]

I just gotta say how incredible it is for Baylor that they are a #3 seed just a few years after all that scandal. Pretty impressive.

[Tim1515]

are you going around posting this question on every Duke board?

[shoutingncu]

...but this is a team that has never been there and done that- So you will just need to wait and see.

Which team are you talking about?

(Sorry, still have the bitter taste of an NIT Tipoff in a couple hours)

[Cavlaw]

Looking ahead much? We won't even know who Duke's first opponent is for another 2 hours or so, let alone who Duke may play if our team is fortunate enough to reach the Elite Eight.

[hq2]

The previous post got it right. Let's just do this one (maybe two) games at a time (we should win the first one; no #1 seed has lost to a #16, ever). Then we have to play Louisville, a top 30 team who will give us serious backcourt problems. If we get by them, we can worry about Baylor. We'll worry about it then.

[Duvall]

The previous post got it right. Let's just do this one (maybe two) games at a time (we should win the first one; no #1 seed has lost to a #16, ever). Then we have to play Louisville, a top 30 team who will give us serious backcourt problems.

Top 30 of what?

[Kedsy]

The previous post got it right. Let's just do this one (maybe two) games at a time (we should win the first one; no #1 seed has lost to a #16, ever). Then we have to play Louisville, a top 30 team who will give us serious backcourt problems. If we get by them, we can worry about Baylor. We'll worry about it then.

Well, actually we'll have to play the California/Louisville winner. Cal is ranked significantly higher than Louisville in RPI, Sagarin, and Pomeroy. (And Louisville is considered a "top 30" team by none of those systems, nor by either major poll, in which they received exactly zero votes.)

If we beat the Cal/Louisville winner, we'll play Purdue/Texas A&M/Utah State/Siena, and if we beat them we can worry about Baylor, if they happen to be next.

[mgtr]

Top 30 of what?

Top 30 of Kentucky. They have their own special basketball rules there.

[Rudy]

If Baylor gets that far they will be on a roll- but this is a team that has never been there and done that- So you will just need to wait and see.

No one on the current Duke team has been there and done that either, although its head coach and associate coach have.