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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Wilmington, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Well, let me correct you about one thing. I do not think the computers do a better job of evaluating teams better than humans. There are things beyond stats that go into evaluating a performance.
    What has been interesting to track lately, for me, is how closely Pomeroy's individual game predictions are matching the odds-makers'.

    To me, that's a much better basis of comparison between humans' evaluations and his system's evaluations than comparing them with the polls.

    FWIW, from my limited sample size, they seem to be correlating very closely. I am hopeful that this is a positive sign for Duke.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "just win baby-- win out and I am confident we will get that top seed" Evans
    That's the key everyone. Duke must WIN OUT. We do that and odds are fairly decent that we get a #1 seed. If we lose once, then it becomes difficult/unlikely to get a #1. Lose twice down the stretch and we pretty well assure ourselves of a 2 or 3 seed. (I think it likely that a couple of those teams ahead of us are yet to experience more losses down the stretch - KA, KY, Syr., Purdue, though I suspect KA or KY might be able to weather a stretch loss and remain at a #1 seed.)

    One step at a time. Beat Tulsa, then UVA, then MD, then NC@CH. Then 3 ACCT games.

    Do that and good things will happen.

    BTW, I think that we want VPI to beat MD this weekend, as we have the tie-breaker with VPI in the ACC (if it came to that), right? Of course, who needs any extra reason to root against the Terps anyhow???!
    Last edited by -bdbd; 02-23-2010 at 03:45 PM.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA

    The Top-25 and Sweaty Gary

    "Sweaty Gary" is up to his insecurity antics again. He is now decrying that his team is being slighted by the pollsters, saying "We should be in the Top-25." My personal opinion is this is just another cry for attention from Gary -- "Look at us, we're really good everybody." Whatever.

    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ter...isrc=nl_sports

    But since Gary is "sweating" the polls this week, I think he makes at least one good topical point: Is the ACC, after Duke and ignoring NC@CH (please!), better/deeper as a whole this year than it was last year and in the recent past? What do you think? As a group are they better or worse -- MD, VPI, UVA, Wake, Clemson, FSU, GT, Miami. While the press seems to (erroneously) evaluate conferences based on their top 2-3 teams, I think it is fairer to look at EVERYONE in the league, in total. And it is a reasonable argument - as the ACC could have as many as eight teams dancing...

    BTW, that MD-Clemson matchup could be a good one. In fact, MD also has a tough one next weekend at VPI as well. Could be a make-or-break week in the ACC race for second place!

  4. #44
    Is Gary more damp from sweating or crying?
    All part of the job...he's a wiz at pleading for his teams after all the practice he's had over the years.
    Duke's the best, whatevs on the rest.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    West Palm Beach, FL

    Hes probably right

    Gary has a good point, Maryland should be ranked. However theres a few teams who can make that argument. It doesnt really matter though when it comes down to it. Rankings arent considered for the tournament. Im sure as long as they win they will be ranked next monday.

    He had another good point about the league overall. I think the ACC is better this year as a whole. Even if NC is having a down year. Lanardi has 7 teams in the tourney as of now. Thats as many as any league will have.

    Duke can silence all of this when they win the Championship this year. That would be two years in a row for the ACC. I guy can dream, can't he?


    Airforcedukie

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Texas/NC
    They should be actually. Look at some of the teams in the 20-25 range.

  7. #47
    Yeah, I think Gary should just shut up about this. Maryland currently...

    A) Has zero quality wins out of conference, and a home loss to William & Mary (which IS ranked in the RPI top 50, but still).
    B) Has a total of three wins against top 50 RPI opponents, two of which came against Florida State (#40)
    C) Has zero wins against teams currently ranked in the top 25 of the RPI, AP, Coaches' Poll.

    Maryland is going to the in the NCAAs because they've beaten who they should beat - their worst loss was to RPI #56 Cincinnati. They've also beaten lesser teams by large margins, which is why their Pomeroy ranking (#12) is substantially higher than their RPI (#34). But just beating who you should beat is often not going to impress the pollsters.

    [Somewhat Off-Topic: Actually, I think Maryland is a very good case in point why, as was discussed in another thread, somehow capping the impact of margin of victory is really important to rating teams. Maryland is #12 in the Pomeroy and #13 in Jeff Sagarin's Predictor rating largely because of huge margins of victory against Charleston Southern, New Hampshire, NC Greensboro, Longwood, etc. I would strongly disagree with anyone who claimed Maryland is the 12th or 13th best team in the country.]

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Maryland has more right to be ranked than Texas. Gary is correct.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    The idea that the ACC's second-place team in late February deserves to be nationally ranked hardly seems irrational.

    But GW does do we-don't-get-no-respect as well as anyone.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    The City of Brotherly Love except when it's cold.
    Wilbon and Le Batard on PTI today: Only one ACC team in the top 25, therefore the ACC is weak, and thus Duke must be overrated.

    Never mind that the ACC is rated 1st, 2nd, and 3rd by Pomeroy, Sagarin, and the RPI, respectively. Why let a little data interfere with the bashing from Bristol.

  11. #51
    Eh, maybe. Re: Texas - Texas has less losses and is rated higher by both kenpom and the RPI.

    In my ever so humble opinion, Maryland's 9-3 record breaks down into going 0-3 against the top 5 teams in the ACC and 9-0 against the bottom 7. That makes them fairly good, but Top 25? I'd probably put them in the 20-25 range off the top of my head, but it's not some great outrage.

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by 77devil View Post
    Wilbon and Le Batard on PTI today: Only one ACC team in the top 25, therefore the ACC is weak, and thus Duke must be overrated.

    Never mind that the ACC is rated 1st, 2nd, and 3rd by Pomeroy, Sagarin, and the RPI, respectively. Why let a little data interfere with the bashing from Bristol.
    I wouldn't get worked up over what either of those two idiots say. kornheiser would be worse. The three clueless.

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Back in the dirty Jerz
    MD is #12 in Pomeroy, #20 in Sagarin ... sounds to me like Gary makes a good point.

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Question OK to Root for UMd?

    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    BTW, I think that we want VPI to beat MD this weekend, as we have the tie-breaker with VPI in the ACC (if it came to that), right? Of course, who needs any extra reason to root against the Terps anyhow???!
    I think this is for each to decide. This is not a "undebatable proposition," as it would be if UNC were playing. This is the obvious implication when we say, "not our rival" about the Terps.

    I would just as soon see Maryland win.

    I hate the UMd fans more than any other in the conference -- even UNC's. But then I split my time between CO and DC, and don't get the full effect of Heeldom.

    Offsetting my dislike of the College Park students is that I greatly prefer Gary to Seth. There are only three ACC coaches who have not adopted K's buttoned-down, all-business attitude (some self consciously [see Gaudio, Dino]): Gary, Seth and Ol' Roy. (Although occasionally Leonard Hamilton's rough edges show through.) I vastly prefer Gary to the other two. He is exactly who he is: an intense, "basketball is 100%" coach with a chip on his shoulder, despite having coached more college games than even Coach K. Seth is totally annoying -- Don Rickles without a shred of humor. Mere words cannot describe my feelings about Roy Williams.

    I really like the Maryland players. Greivis is very good and, although he has an in-your-face attitude, is still a touch vulnerable. Also, he came out of a bad section of Caracas. This is not Chicago, NY or LA, but Caracas. Maryland doesn't seem to have any thugs on the team. Did anyone else notice when Adrian Bowie fould Nolan really hard, Nolan patted him on the shoulder? As many know, Nolan plays pick-up games in College Park when home during the summer.

    The VT players are just tough guys who can't play basketball very well, except Delaney, who seems to be the second coming of Randolph childress.

    It's a close call, but I would just as soon see the Terps win. We need to win the rest of our games anyway, so I'm not going to spas about a tie for first in the ACC.

    sagegrouse

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    BTW, I think that we want VPI to beat MD this weekend, as we have the tie-breaker with VPI in the ACC (if it came to that), right? Of course, who needs any extra reason to root against the Terps anyhow???!
    We'd have any tie-breaker with Maryland, too, as long as Wake or Clemson finish ahead of Georgia Tech.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    The VT players are just tough guys who can't play basketball very well, except Delaney, who seems to be the second coming of Randolph childress.
    Wow, I had not seen this until you mentioned it, but I can seem some similarities. I think Delaney is more intense than Childress, though. Randolph was a bit of a quiet player who rarely showed emotion as his impossible shots were destroying you. Delaney is more fiery.

    Other than that, I do see a lot of Childresses game in Delaney. Nice call!



    --Jason "damn, was Childress a stone-cold killer or what?" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA

    Red face Agreed

    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    The idea that the ACC's second-place team in late February deserves to be nationally ranked hardly seems irrational.

    But GW does do we-don't-get-no-respect as well as anyone.
    Yes. 'wasn't arguing against MD being in the top-25. Just am tired, living in the DC area, to see ole SG whining yet again about not getting enough respect. After enough times you just gotta roll your eyes. Hard to see K whining like that over such a debatable point. He'd be more likely to say, "We don't worry about that. We're focused on taking care of business ON the court. And the rest of it will take care of itself."

    But I kinda agree with the proposal that the conference quality, overall, is somewhat better this year. It's just that the improvement is in the #3 - #9 slots primarily. But boy will the Big East, Big-10/11 and Pac10 fans howl if/when 2/3 of the ACC makes the tournament (even 7 would have that effect). In most other conferences there are several truly awful teams where the upper echelon can take several games "off." In the ACC? Well, the first place team lost to the LAST place team this year...



  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    Yes. 'wasn't arguing against MD being in the top-25. Just am tired, living in the DC area, to see ole SG whining yet again about not getting enough respect. After enough times you just gotta roll your eyes. Hard to see K whining like that over such a debatable point. He'd be more likely to say, "We don't worry about that. We're focused on taking care of business ON the court. And the rest of it will take care of itself."

    But I kinda agree with the proposal that the conference quality, overall, is somewhat better this year. It's just that the improvement is in the #3 - #9 slots primarily. But boy will the Big East, Big-10/11 and Pac10 fans howl if/when 2/3 of the ACC makes the tournament (even 7 would have that effect). In most other conferences there are several truly awful teams where the upper echelon can take several games "off." In the ACC? Well, the first place team lost to the LAST place team this year...


    When ACC teams beat each other up in conference, its because they are a "weak" conference. When Big East teams beat each other up, its because they are a "great" conference and competitive!

    Don't believe everything you hear from ESPN, they just spent 10 minutes on sportcenter today drooling over UCONN.

    Take a team like West Virginia, who is ranked #7 simply as a product of playing in Big East. Their best win is at home against Pitt, but they have lost to every good team in the Big East already, and they still have to play at Villanova and Georgetown.

    But Maryland, Wake, VT arent even in the top 25? Just because Carolina has fallen off a cliff, doesnt mean the rest of conference has done the same. Another reason to GTHC, GTH.

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Random note, but for anyone who puts too much stock in the polls:

    I kept wondering why (#22) Northern Iowa was ranked in the top 25 when their best win seems to be against Boston College (whose RPI is 105 right now according to CBS).

    Their record was 14-3, but really? No wins against RPI top 100 opponents and they're in the polls?

    Well now they've gone and lost to Evansville, so I feel better about myself and my dislike for the polls...

  20. #60
    I don’t think that it is unreasonable to expect Maryland to be ranked in the top 25. They are currently in 2nd place with a 9-3 record (3-3 against other likely NCAAT and top RPI 50 teams); 12th in Pomeroy which is based not only on the team’s record and strength of opposition but how well they play; 18th in Sagarin which also takes into account a team’s record and strength of opposition as well as home vs. road and margin of victory (diminishing returns for lopsided wins); and 34th in RPI. Living in Northern Virginia, I have watched probably 80% of their games and based on my old eyes, this year’s Terps have, on the average, played better than they have for the past 4-5 years. I expect them to end up with 11 conference wins and a first round bye in the ACCT. They will probably get a 6-7 seed in the NCAAT depending on how well they do in the ACCT.

    gw67

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