Can Duke Win The National Championship This Season?

[turnandburn55]

Winning 6 games in a row against teams that are all playing for their season is always a tough road to follow.

In the past, it's almost always required either a supremely talented team or a player (or two) who is simply larger than life.

Nice players on this team, but someone has to decide he's going to but the team on his back when they need it most (see: Laettner, Christian; Battier, Shane).

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

It's looking more likely by the minute.

[dyedwab]

we are one of only four teams that has that chance...and I think Ken Pomeroy certainly likes us...

[cptnflash]

we are one of only four teams that has that chance...and I think Ken Pomeroy certainly likes us...

We've been the favorite statistically since the tournament started, and we certainly are now. But it's still more likely that we don't win than we do.

[DukieInBrasil]

Yes. It will require 2 of our Big 3 having hot hands and some presence inside. We will make the Final 4 and Kentucky will not be there.

money prediction, proven to be true.

[gw67]

This year’s team is similar to many of Coach K’s teams of the last 20 years. They are skilled; they leave their egos in the locker room and play as a team; and they play with emotion. There are two additional ingredients to this team’s makeup that make them special in my eyes (and I’ve been a fan for nearly 50 years). First, their frontcourt players are tough physically and don’t back down when it gets rough under the boards. Second this is a “mature” team, both from a physical as well as an emotional point of view. Their starting players are all either over 22 years of age or nearly 22, while the Plumlees are 21-1/2 and 20 years old. Only Dawkins is a young college player at 18. Many experts have stated that a winning NCAAT team needs some NBA-quality players (IMO, Duke has some). I would add that in most cases, it helps to have an experienced and mature team with an excellent coach.

gw67

[mehmattski]

We've been the favorite statistically since the tournament started, and we certainly are now. But it's still more likely that we don't win than we do.

Actually that's not correct:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...rticleid=1043#

the log5 prediction method with up-to-date Pomeroy rankings gives us a 56% chance of winning the title.

[CDu]

Actually that's not correct:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...rticleid=1043#

the log5 prediction method with up-to-date Pomeroy rankings gives us a 56% chance of winning the title.

Just goes to show you that you should almost always take the field over a single team in the NCAA tournament. We're the highest seed remaining in the field with only two possible games to go, and yet we're still only considered a coin flip to win it.

[Neals384]

For a deep run [= F4], in every game:

1. any 2 of 3-S must play O very, very well [= 18-20 pts each, decent 3-pt %, and a killer basket in last 4-5 minutes of tense game], and all 3 of 3-S must play solid D, no foul trouble, a few steals, flicks, hold a key opponent to ineffective O. Hopeful sign here is that we don't have to have superb O from all 3 every game; and odds are that no team can shut down 2 of these 3. These 3 won't go away.

2. LT must maintain fierce, controlled, disruptive D on one of opponent's key men; and must be decent threat on elbow jumper, and hit 75% FTs.

3. any 1 of 3 bigs must have noticeably positive impact on game on O [=7-10 pts, O-rebounds]; and ditto [any 1, doesn't have to be same 1] on D.

4. need a minimal, but good, contribution from either RK or D [a 3pt-er, a couple FTs, a nice entry pass from RK]

5. inspired K-coaching X/O in tight [probably not every] game.

6. Every game, "Duke plays every play." Any question 3-S play every play? How about LT? K?

7. Yep, matchup could get us, as could cold FTs, bad call/bounce. But our odds seem a bit more promising this year.

Pretty much spot on as far as Duke's performance so far!

[Franzez]

Nothing new here.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

What type of question is this? OF COURSE WE CAN, AND DID. AHAHA feels great to say that.

[moonpie23]

the more i see UK, the more i think they actually ARE getting better...and with that talent level, could be a legit contender...look at that team's weaknesses and you will see that they are beginning to figure it out...


Those big east teams are legit....when you look at other teams like purdue, Kstate, Mich state or West virginia, they look to have what it takes given the correct matchups.


for duke to have a good run, they need to show continued improvement down the stretch . I think if i was any of those teams above, i wouldn't be licking my chops at the prospect of playing duke in the tourny.

IMHO, Duke will be extremely lucky to make the Elite 8. If they get a tough draw, they have no chance. Duke is enjoying a weak ACC this year, which ranks 3rd behind the Big 12 and the Big East. IF Duke played in the Big East, would they still be ranked in the top 10? Probably not. Again, being able to keep everyone healthy in the backcourt as well as avoiding the usual "wearing out" of the players that have to play 35+ minutes each game will tell the story. Can they do it? Depends on how dark blue your glasses are. There is no doubt, Duke is one of the best in the ACC, but this year -- that isn't saying very much.

Duke could win in Lacrosse,but in basketball it doesn't seem likely.We play very good defense, but our offense is to unreliable to win 6 straight.

"Can" Duke win the national championship this season?

Yes.

"Will" Duke win the national championship this season?

I predict no.

I really enjoy watching this team. They play with great heart and passion. But I do not believe they have the interior skill or perimeter depth to make a run all the way to the title.

Of course, I really hope I'm wrong...

nope.

we gotta fire these guys....specially that moonpie feller..



(this was a fun thread to re-read.)

[Jderf]

we gotta fire these guys....specially that moonpie feller...

Haha nice post. Things like that remind me why I always try to make the slippery (and somewhat cheap) rhetorical move of never making predictions but only discussing various "possibilities." It's great. You can say all the same things with none of that undesirable accountability stuff.