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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Talking Sorry, But This is Tiresome

    Quote Originally Posted by PhillyDuke View Post
    Our freshman ain't ready for prime time, because they haven't developed; and that's because they sat on the bench for too long most of the season. This time of year, freshmen no longer play like freshmen because they stop making "freshmen" mistakes. Experience does that. Our freshmen are still inexperienced.
    Puh-lease! This is the most tired cliche on this Board. It is utterly a canard. If freshmen are ready, they play. And why do you think there is an entire thread devoted to urging Mason Plumlee to stop making dumb mistakes?

    That said, both Andre and Mason are getting decent minutes now. Dawkins has averaged 10 mins. per game over the last three -- all tough ACC contests. Mason is averaging 18 mins. per game. Both should see action against VT. Ryan Kelly is averaging only 3-4 mins. per game in these three, but they have been at crucial points in the game. All three freshmen should get lots of PT against Tulsa, which should show how much progress they have made.

    sagegrouse

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Saint Louis, MO
    I think it's certainly possible for us to win this year: it all depends on which "version" of the team shows up, as an above poster mentioned.

    A look at the top 25 has made me extremely excited for this year's tournament because while few of those teams would likely fall easily to Duke, none of them appear to be unbeatable. That said, there are a few that would be unfortunate early(ish) matchups (the big east teams in particular scare me, maybe because two of our recent exits have come at their hands).

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Smile This Team is Really Good

    Quote Originally Posted by Franzez View Post
    Well we know its possible that Duke can win the National Championship if they win the games to do so.

    But do you think Duke is good enough to go on a run and take down one of the teams projected to be in the Final Four? Do you think Duke can beat Kentucky or Kansas?

    I've started to think that a success would be for us to reach the Sweet 16 with such youth and lack of depth in the backcourt.
    Well, back to the original question --

    First, I think Duke can win the national Championship.

    Second, I think Duke, if it takes care of business -- wins the regular season and the ACC tournament -- will be a #1 seed. So, we don't have to beat a #1 seed until the Final Four (if then).

    Third, it looks to me that Duke is playing very well and improving week to week. You may have heard announcers Greg Anthony and Gus Johnson say during the UNC-BC game that Duke seemed to be playing as well as anyone in the country.

    Fourth, Duke has three players that seem certain to be All ACC -- probably a first teamer and two second teamers. That's a lot of talent. When he had comparable breadth of talent in 2001 and 2002, we were clearly FF and NC material.

    Fifth, the ACC is actually rated fairly highly in the Pomeroy and other rankings. I disagree with the position that the ACC is having a down year. That conflates UNC's collapse with a down year in the conference. I don't think so. The fact that all the ACC teams keep beating each other underlines the competitiveness, not the overall strength of the ACC. Duke's conference record speaks for itself.

    I think Duke is a #1 seed and FF team this year. National champions? Possible. We'll see who shows up in Indianapolis. There may be some surprises.

    Finally, I don't understand your parting shot. "Youth and lack of depth in the backcourt?" Huh? This is the most experienced Duke team since 2002. Looks to me that, barring injury, that backcourt depth is not a problem. Why would you substitute for Jon, Nolan and Kyle? They seem to be able to handle the minutes just fine.


    sagegrouse

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Jumbo View Post
    Kansas is good, but why is anyone so scared of Kentucky? Have people actually watched them play this year? Forget about Duke -- Syracuse is clearly better than Kentucky and I might put Villanova ahead of UK as well.
    Villanova? Wouldn't they have to start guarding people first?

  5. #45

    NC Not Likely

    There are a number of really good teams ahead of us and another group comparable with us in ability. Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Purdue all have a good shot of advancing to the final four. The second group is larger.

    We have to take care of business during the regular season and win the ACC tournament to have any shot at a #1 seed. Any of the top four, and possibly Villanova would have to falter for us to move up in seeding. These things are possible, but there is a lot for us to achieve to get into that favorable position.

    In horse racing I put a % probability of winning on the race. Las Vegas does the same and will for the tournament. Where teams will be rated in anyone's guess at this point, but if I was to guess now it would be Kansas 20%, Syracuse and Kentucky 15% each, Purdue 10%, Villanova about 7% Duke would be about at 5%. Lots of teams will be in the 3% or less.

    Our team is good and has talent, experience, size and coaching. The problem is so do many other teams.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    This team is not as talented as recent Duke final four teams. The '99, '01, and '04 teams were arguably the best teams in the country those years, or no worse than second best. The '04 team had six future NBA players on it. This team has maybe three on it, and probably not particularly good ones. It is clearly not as good.

    For this team to make it to the FF, we need two things; momentum and good matchups. By momentum, we need to continue our current higher level of play; good ball movement, agressive defense, decent contributions by the Front Four rotation. By matchups, we need to be lucky and not have to play Georgetown/Villanova teams with big frontcourts and quick/deep backcourts where we don't match up. I'd say we probably won't make it, but you never know; we might even beat one of those type teams if the big three have a lights out shooting game. You never know.

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by hq2 View Post
    The '04 team had six future NBA players on it. This team has maybe three on it, and probably not particularly good ones.
    Would you like to make a bet on the number of future NBA players on this team? I'll take the over at 3.5...

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Fourth, Duke has three players that seem certain to be All ACC -- probably a first teamer and two second teamers. That's a lot of talent. When he had comparable breadth of talent in 2001 and 2002, we were clearly FF and NC material.
    We certainly have the talent required to be among the teams that can win a title. But if you're going to draw comparisons to our 01 and 02 teams, we simply aren't on that level. The 01 team had the two best players in the country, and the 02 team featured three All-Americans. And the supporting casts were rock solid with guys like James, Duhon, and Jones.

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    i'm not into predicting when a team will fail...but i will say this...

    Watching teams like Syracuse, Villanova, Gerogetown, Kansas, and UK, there is a talent level that is undeniable. At the start of the season, folks were touting Texas as a team that "had it all"...but we see how they've faded...


    i see tremendous strengths in the teams above. I also see strengths in this duke team, however, i haven't seen the consistent component of having ALL the strengths clicking for more than a game here and a game there...

    the more i see UK, the more i think they actually ARE getting better...and with that talent level, could be a legit contender...look at that team's weaknesses and you will see that they are beginning to figure it out...


    Those big east teams are legit....when you look at other teams like purdue, Kstate, Mich state or West virginia, they look to have what it takes given the correct matchups.


    for duke to have a good run, they need to show continued improvement down the stretch . I think if i was any of those teams above, i wouldn't be licking my chops at the prospect of playing duke in the tourny.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Of course this team can win the NC. So could last year's Duke team, and the team before that, and the team before that, etc. You, me, and three DBR posters could win the NC. Our odds would be maybe 1 in a trillion but it could happen. There really is only one answer to the question in the thread title. Regardless, that question has generated some interesting discussion which I've enjoyed reading.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by loldevilz View Post
    I think many people are looking for a guaranteed final four presence. I don't that it is possible with this team. However, Duke has a few things that set it apart from the others:

    1) size. when we go big...we go BIG
    2) experience. our starters are 3 seniors and 2 juniors
    3) leadership. you can't say enough about Mr. scheyer.
    4) we got the mastermind: coach K
    Don't forget that we are one of the better FT shooting teams in the country (75.7%). Obviously this can be a difference-maker against a team like Texas who shoots 61%.

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA

    No

    would love for them to go all the way. but the realist in me says there are a few problems - that have been innumerated ad nausem on these boards - that will keep them from winning it all. Unless of course, all the stars align and lady luck smiles down upon them.

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Maryland
    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    i'm not into predicting when a team will fail...but i will say this...

    Watching teams like Syracuse, Villanova, Gerogetown, Kansas, and UK, there is a talent level that is undeniable. At the start of the season, folks were touting Texas as a team that "had it all"...but we see how they've faded...


    i see tremendous strengths in the teams above. I also see strengths in this duke team, however, i haven't seen the consistent component of having ALL the strengths clicking for more than a game here and a game there...

    the more i see UK, the more i think they actually ARE getting better...and with that talent level, could be a legit contender...look at that team's weaknesses and you will see that they are beginning to figure it out...


    Those big east teams are legit....when you look at other teams like purdue, Kstate, Mich state or West virginia, they look to have what it takes given the correct matchups.


    for duke to have a good run, they need to show continued improvement down the stretch . I think if i was any of those teams above, i wouldn't be licking my chops at the prospect of playing duke in the tourny.
    A good coherent post, some of the posts I just read seemed more like fan optimism rather than seeing things from a neutral standpoint.

    My worries is that Duke can just have one of those nights and drop a game early against an undisciplined team so far this season that can work things out in the tournament.

    Just predicting, I think we'll be a #2 seed if we win the ACC thats solely because how weak the conference is this season and the fact we dont have any signature wins this season. Usually theres an undisciplined/streaky team like Cincinatti or Baylor or UTEP that has a shot to pull the upset or get blown out depending on how they react. A win will be tough to come by from the 2nd round on, we'll really see how strong the veteran leadership is and if anyone emerges as the clutch performer.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by bluepenguin View Post
    would love for them to go all the way. but the realist in me says there are a few problems - that have been innumerated ad nausem on these boards - that will keep them from winning it all. Unless of course, all the stars align and lady luck smiles down upon them.
    I wonder when the last "unlucky" team won the national championship.

    Last year, simulations showed Carolina to have the best chance of winning the tournament, but it was still at less than a 6% chance before the first game was played. In a single-elimination tournament that takes six consecutive wins, sometimes it's a tossup among the 10-15 teams with a realistic shot.

    Stated differently: luck isn't unique to Duke's NC chances. All teams need it. The question is whether Duke is in that group of 10-15 teams. I say yes, near the top of it.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Franzez View Post
    A good coherent post, some of the posts I just read seemed more like fan optimism rather than seeing things from a neutral standpoint.
    Interesting. I've read a ton of coherent posts in this thread. Yet you've once again dropped another canard on us, by painting the discussion as an either/proposition between "fan optimism" and a "neutral standpoint." I don't even know what a "neutral standpoint" is. No one is neutral when it comes to analysis like this. Some people are biased because of rooting interests. Some people are biased because they've watched certain teams more than others. Some people are biased because they've been burned before. I think the term you're looking for is an "analytical standpoint" as opposed to "raw emotion." And I think nearly everyone has delivered reasonable analysis.

    Quote Originally Posted by Franzez View Post
    My worries is that Duke can just have one of those nights and drop a game early against an undisciplined team so far this season that can work things out in the tournament.
    This is one of the many oft-repeated ideas I can't comprehend. EVERYONE can have "one of those nights." Everyone. Duke was incredibly talented in 2001-02 and had "one of those nights" against Indiana in the Sweet 16. Top teams around the country get upset early every year. That's the nature of the tournament.

    Quote Originally Posted by Franzez View Post
    Just predicting, I think we'll be a #2 seed if we win the ACC thats solely because how weak the conference is this season and the fact we dont have any signature wins this season.
    If beating a very good Gonzaga team by 35 points doesn't count as a signature win, I don't know what does. And if Duke doesn't have any "signature wins," what does Kentucky have? Never mind that the ACC is far stronger than you state; Duke has been an extremely strong team throughout the season.

    Quote Originally Posted by Franzez View Post
    Usually theres an undisciplined/streaky team like Cincinatti or Baylor or UTEP that has a shot to pull the upset or get blown out depending on how they react. A win will be tough to come by from the 2nd round on, we'll really see how strong the veteran leadership is and if anyone emerges as the clutch performer.
    I have no idea what this means, why it's different for Duke than for any other team, or why it's different this season.

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Franzez View Post
    A good coherent post, some of the posts I just read seemed more like fan optimism rather than seeing things from a neutral standpoint.

    My worries is that Duke can just have one of those nights and drop a game early against an undisciplined team so far this season that can work things out in the tournament.

    Just predicting, I think we'll be a #2 seed if we win the ACC thats solely because how weak the conference is this season and the fact we dont have any signature wins this season. Usually theres an undisciplined/streaky team like Cincinatti or Baylor or UTEP that has a shot to pull the upset or get blown out depending on how they react. A win will be tough to come by from the 2nd round on, we'll really see how strong the veteran leadership is and if anyone emerges as the clutch performer.
    I may just be stating the obvious, but I don't want to find a clutch performer before the 2nd weekend of the tourney at least. Last year we only barely won our first game, only barely beat Texas, and then got blown out by Villanova. Clearly we weren't playing our best ball. I would love to win our first two games big, and get on a roll. A clutch performance is nice in the F4, but needing the clutch early on in the tourney isn't a good sign.

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Hermy-own View Post
    Last year we only barely won our first game...
    Duke 86 - Binghamton 62. That's a 24 point victory. I believe you are remembering the previous year when Duke beat Belmont 71-70 in the opening round.
    Bob Green

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Hermy-own View Post
    I may just be stating the obvious, but I don't want to find a clutch performer before the 2nd weekend of the tourney at least. Last year we only barely won our first game, only barely beat Texas, and then got blown out by Villanova. Clearly we weren't playing our best ball. I would love to win our first two games big, and get on a roll. A clutch performance is nice in the F4, but needing the clutch early on in the tourney isn't a good sign.
    Duke barely won its first game? It beat Binghamton by 24 points. Texas was tight, on doubt. And here's the interesting thing about the Villanova game -- everyone always forgets that Duke was right there at the half. Duke was down 3, and then Singler hit the first basket of the second half to put Duke down by 1. Now, we all know what happened from there -- a Villanova run in which Duke's defense came apart and the team couldn't buy a jump shot. But I contend that last year's team wasn't as good or as tough as this current group. To put it another way, if this year's team is in a tight game at the half despite not playing well, I have a ton of confidence that they'll put it together in the second half, especially given the added size and ways to make an impact that this team enjoys. And, sure enough, we've seen examples of that -- against Clemson, UNC, Miami, etc.

  19. #59
    If I was assigning probabilities, I would give higher probabilities to Kansas and Syracuse than Duke. I am not sure I would give anyone else a higher chance.

    First, the Duke team has several of the "markers" of a contender:

    -- strong defense (No. 14 in Kenpom)
    -- good foul shooting (No. 14 in Kenpom)
    -- experience in the backcourt

    These are factors that I hear often discussed as being typical attributes or requirements of a potential championship team that can get through the defensive-oriented grind of the tourney.

    Second, I would add to this list Duke's ability to score efficiently and often. Put simply, on a given night Duke's offense can beat anyone. We have No. 1 offensive efficiency in the bleeping nation, according to Kenpom. And anyone paying attention to these boards, to the games and the comments of the coaching staff know that the Duke offense, as good as it has been overall, has plenty of room for improvement.

    The big knock on Duke is the lack of NBA "bodies" on the team. I think Moneyball - how the fascination with "bodies" and "I know it when I see it" can blur clear vision on actual sports productivity. I repeat, we have the No. 1 offensive efficiency in the bleeping nation without the Favors and Lawalls of the world.

    Maybe Duke has a one-in-ten chance of winning the championship. I like our chances, gentlemen.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Duke 86 - Binghamton 62. That's a 24 point victory. I believe you are remembering the previous year when Duke beat Belmont 71-70 in the opening round.
    Yup, you're right. I mixed those games up. I would still love to see two blowouts on the first weekend, although it isn't essential as long as our team is playing well. The other team can play us hard, but if we win AND we win by playing well (not by jacking up 3's and grinding it out at the end) then it's all good.

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