Can Duke Win The National Championship This Season?

[Franzez]

Well we know its possible that Duke can win the National Championship if they win the games to do so.

But do you think Duke is good enough to go on a run and take down one of the teams projected to be in the Final Four? Do you think Duke can beat Kentucky or Kansas?

I've started to think that a success would be for us to reach the Sweet 16 with such youth and lack of depth in the backcourt.

[Azdukefan]

Lack of depth in the backcourt? I'm pretty sure that Jon is a senior and a NPOY candidate and Nolan is a junior that might be the second best guard in the ACC. I may have Duke colored glasses on by thinking we can contend but even if I weren't a Duke fan, I would respect our backcourt.

[Kishiznit]

Yes. It will require 2 of our Big 3 having hot hands and some presence inside. We will make the Final 4 and Kentucky will not be there.

[Franzez]

Yes. It will require 2 of our Big 3 having hot hands and some presence inside. We will make the Final 4 and Kentucky will not be there.

I would not want to see a Duke-Kentucky matchup in the Tournament. I just cant see any team stopping that Kentucky train with Wall in charge, they're the worst matchup for Duke.

If Duke can get Purdue or Kansas then that is a very good chance for a win.

[Maxwell1977]

I would not want to see a Duke-Kentucky matchup in the Tournament. I just cant see any team stopping that Kentucky train with Wall in charge, they're the worst matchup for Duke.

If Duke can get Purdue or Kansas then that is a very good chance for a win.

You apparently haven't seen UK play. They're on now.

[Duvall]

You apparently haven't seen UK play. They're on now.

Is Kentucky mentally strong enough to make the Elite 8? That team seems awfully tightly wound.

[gumbomoop]

Yes. It will require 2 of our Big 3 having hot hands and some presence inside.

For a deep run [= F4], in every game:

1. any 2 of 3-S must play O very, very well [= 18-20 pts each, decent 3-pt %, and a killer basket in last 4-5 minutes of tense game], and all 3 of 3-S must play solid D, no foul trouble, a few steals, flicks, hold a key opponent to ineffective O. Hopeful sign here is that we don't have to have superb O from all 3 every game; and odds are that no team can shut down 2 of these 3. These 3 won't go away.

2. LT must maintain fierce, controlled, disruptive D on one of opponent's key men; and must be decent threat on elbow jumper, and hit 75% FTs.

3. any 1 of 3 bigs must have noticeably positive impact on game on O [=7-10 pts, O-rebounds]; and ditto [any 1, doesn't have to be same 1] on D.

4. need a minimal, but good, contribution from either RK or D [a 3pt-er, a couple FTs, a nice entry pass from RK]

5. inspired K-coaching X/O in tight [probably not every] game.

6. Every game, "Duke plays every play." Any question 3-S play every play? How about LT? K?

7. Yep, matchup could get us, as could cold FTs, bad call/bounce. But our odds seem a bit more promising this year.

[mapei]

I think what you all are saying is that *if* several things go well, and nothing goes wrong, we have a good chance for the final four and then for the NC. That is true.

And it is equally true for most top-15 teams.

[gumbomoop]

I think what you all are saying is that *if* several things go well, and nothing goes wrong, we have a good chance for the final four and then for the NC. That is true.

And it is equally true for most top-15 teams.

Can't speak for others, but I'll disagree with your comment, at least partially.

1. "If go well" - What's more interesting to me is which things must go well. Most important, not everything has to go well. We have more options this year.

2. "If nothing goes wrong" - I don't agree that "nothing can go wrong." Again, more options, so X could go wrong [e.g., NS off game], but unlikely that X and Y and Z will go wrong [i.e., unlikely that even 2 of 3-S will have off game in same game]

3. Don't agree that the "ifs" are "equally true" for most of top-15. I think our ifs are a bit less iffy than most [but, alas, not all] of top-15.

4. Your good point about "March is a very different thing" actually works a bit in favor of an experienced team such as Duke [but true, also KU, Nova, Mich St, West Va, and maybe Purdue], but less so for UK and even Syracuse.

[Neals384]

For a deep run [= F4], in every game:

1. any 2 of 3-S must play O very, very well [= 18-20 pts each, decent 3-pt %, and a killer basket in last 4-5 minutes of tense game], and all 3 of 3-S must play solid D, no foul trouble, a few steals, flicks, hold a key opponent to ineffective O. Hopeful sign here is that we don't have to have superb O from all 3 every game; and odds are that no team can shut down 2 of these 3. These 3 won't go away.

2. LT must maintain fierce, controlled, disruptive D on one of opponent's key men; and must be decent threat on elbow jumper, and hit 75% FTs.

3. any 1 of 3 bigs must have noticeably positive impact on game on O [=7-10 pts, O-rebounds]; and ditto [any 1, doesn't have to be same 1] on D.

4. need a minimal, but good, contribution from either RK or D [a 3pt-er, a couple FTs, a nice entry pass from RK]

5. inspired K-coaching X/O in tight [probably not every] game.

6. Every game, "Duke plays every play." Any question 3-S play every play? How about LT? K?

7. Yep, matchup could get us, as could cold FTs, bad call/bounce. But our odds seem a bit more promising this year.

Pretty much spot on as far as Duke's performance so far!

[Franzez]

Nothing new here.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

What type of question is this? OF COURSE WE CAN, AND DID. AHAHA feels great to say that.

[moonpie23]

the more i see UK, the more i think they actually ARE getting better...and with that talent level, could be a legit contender...look at that team's weaknesses and you will see that they are beginning to figure it out...


Those big east teams are legit....when you look at other teams like purdue, Kstate, Mich state or West virginia, they look to have what it takes given the correct matchups.


for duke to have a good run, they need to show continued improvement down the stretch . I think if i was any of those teams above, i wouldn't be licking my chops at the prospect of playing duke in the tourny.

IMHO, Duke will be extremely lucky to make the Elite 8. If they get a tough draw, they have no chance. Duke is enjoying a weak ACC this year, which ranks 3rd behind the Big 12 and the Big East. IF Duke played in the Big East, would they still be ranked in the top 10? Probably not. Again, being able to keep everyone healthy in the backcourt as well as avoiding the usual "wearing out" of the players that have to play 35+ minutes each game will tell the story. Can they do it? Depends on how dark blue your glasses are. There is no doubt, Duke is one of the best in the ACC, but this year -- that isn't saying very much.

Duke could win in Lacrosse,but in basketball it doesn't seem likely.We play very good defense, but our offense is to unreliable to win 6 straight.

"Can" Duke win the national championship this season?

Yes.

"Will" Duke win the national championship this season?

I predict no.

I really enjoy watching this team. They play with great heart and passion. But I do not believe they have the interior skill or perimeter depth to make a run all the way to the title.

Of course, I really hope I'm wrong...

nope.

we gotta fire these guys....specially that moonpie feller..



(this was a fun thread to re-read.)

[Jderf]

we gotta fire these guys....specially that moonpie feller...

Haha nice post. Things like that remind me why I always try to make the slippery (and somewhat cheap) rhetorical move of never making predictions but only discussing various "possibilities." It's great. You can say all the same things with none of that undesirable accountability stuff.

[DukieInBrasil]

Yes. It will require 2 of our Big 3 having hot hands and some presence inside. We will make the Final 4 and Kentucky will not be there.

money prediction, proven to be true.

[gw67]

This year’s team is similar to many of Coach K’s teams of the last 20 years. They are skilled; they leave their egos in the locker room and play as a team; and they play with emotion. There are two additional ingredients to this team’s makeup that make them special in my eyes (and I’ve been a fan for nearly 50 years). First, their frontcourt players are tough physically and don’t back down when it gets rough under the boards. Second this is a “mature” team, both from a physical as well as an emotional point of view. Their starting players are all either over 22 years of age or nearly 22, while the Plumlees are 21-1/2 and 20 years old. Only Dawkins is a young college player at 18. Many experts have stated that a winning NCAAT team needs some NBA-quality players (IMO, Duke has some). I would add that in most cases, it helps to have an experienced and mature team with an excellent coach.

gw67

[Franzez]

Lack of depth in the backcourt? I'm pretty sure that Jon is a senior and a NPOY candidate and Nolan is a junior that might be the second best guard in the ACC. I may have Duke colored glasses on by thinking we can contend but even if I weren't a Duke fan, I would respect our backcourt.

Im talking about the youth with freshmen like Kelly, Dawkins, and Plumlee getting crucial minutes off the bench.

I think you left your Duke colored glasses on, I dont know how Jon can be considered a NPOY candidate at this point in the season. The media has made it clear that John Wall is the best player in college basketball, and we all must believe it. What im saying is the media picks these award winners.

I dont think its a might, Smith is the 2nd best guard in the ACC behind only Delaney.

[Osiagledknarf]

Im talking about the youth with freshmen like Kelly, Dawkins, and Plumlee getting crucial minutes off the bench.

I think you left your Duke colored glasses on, I dont know how Jon can be considered a NPOY candidate at this point in the season. The media has made it clear that John Wall is the best player in college basketball, and we all must believe it. What im saying is the media picks these award winners.

I dont think its a might, Smith is the 2nd best guard in the ACC behind only Delaney.

Then we can put Keuucky in the same boat then as well. They have Wall, Bledsoe and Cousins who are all freshman who will be getting critical minutes in the tourney. Not that I am comparing these guys to that group, but I need to attack this statement about experience in the tourney. We have a starting lineup depending on the team that will feature this:

Singler: Senior
Smith: Junior
Singler: Junior
Thomas: Senior
Zoubek: Senior

Bench:

Miles: Sophmore
Mason: Freshman
Kelly: Freshman
Dawkins: Freshman

Dawkins and Kelly have not gotten any critical minutes this season at all... In fact, walk on's at times have taken the minutes of Dawkins and Kelly at times. Barring injury, I find it's hard to believe that Coach K will change there minutes in the NCAA tourney.

I think this team has some of the pieces to make it to possibly a Elite 8 or if in the right brackett, a final four. We could possibly take a Ketucky, but I don't see us being able to handle a Kansas or Nova.



That's a pretty experienced group going into March Madness.

[Cell-R]

Then we can put Keuucky in the same boat then as well. They have Wall, Bledsoe and Cousins who are all freshman who will be getting critical minutes in the tourney. Not that I am comparing these guys to that group, but I need to attack this statement about experience in the tourney. We have a starting lineup depending on the team that will feature this:

Singler: Senior
Smith: Junior
Singler: Junior
Thomas: Senior
Zoubek: Senior
.

If only Singler could clone himself as his future senior (PG) self
We would be set then!

[CameronBlue]

How well the bigs adjust to the officiating may determine Duke's tourney success. Is it me or have ACC conference games been a lot rougher than most of the rest of college basketball this year? As several in the media commented Duke-Wake, Duke-Tech were some of the more physical games in recent memory. Two quick fouls in the Georgetown game (IIRC) completely knocked Miles out of his rhythm and seemed to intimidate Zoubs and Mason as well. (Georgetown spread the offense which limited the effectiveness of help-side defense if memory serves.) Duke must be prepared to adjust to similar schemes.