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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NCAA Conference Realignment

    This probably belongs on off-topic since it is pretty speculative at this point, but as many may have seen in the press recently, the golden goose of conference realignment may end up being Texas and not Notre Dame.

    While there are many reasons for Texas to stay in the Big XII and be happy, if Mizzou bolts for the Big Ten, or Colorado to the Pac Ten, I think that will be the equivalent of Arkansas leaving for the SEC and be the first domino to fall. The Big 12 loses its championship game with no attractive options to add in. Texas will be next to bolt and it will be quickly.

    I have a ton to say on the matter, and how it eventually could effect Duke, but let me lay it out there -- the only reason for Texas (which would always be packaged with A&M) not to accept an invitation to the Pac 10 or the Big 10 is geography. That's it. And this is not just about money either (well, not just about athletic department money). Texas and Texas A&M would love to join the Committee on Institutional Cooperation, which makes up the Big Ten and U Chicago, and provides a TON of resources to its member schools. And those schools would love to include Texas and Texas A&M.

    These discussions are real. And if the Big 12 were to fall apart, expanding the Pac 10 and Big 10 in a manner where the SEC felt obliged to add schools, they will likely look to the ACC first (Clemson, FSU, Ga Tech). This would put Duke football in a precarious position.

    We may be heading to a split of college football from the NCAA as the BCS contract expires. But if these dominos start to fall, Duke football, and by association, Duke athletics, will need to be ready with a plan.

  2. #2
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    Just a note of inquiry... maybe I've missed it, but I haven't seen any speculation regarding Texas and the Pac 10. To me that hookup makes no sense on pretty much any level. Coming into the Big 10(and hey, Texas wouldn't even have to truly switch conferences, since their joining it would kill their old conference, and the Big 10 would actually become the Big 12 ), makes a lot more sense.

    And while it would certainly be a major shake to the system, I don't forsee it causing as significant an overall impact around the country as you seem to project.

  3. #3
    The SEC isn't adding any schools anytime soon...there are no viable candidates that would bring in enough money to make up for splitting the pie into 13-16 pieces. The Big 12 is vulnerable b/c they just don't have the TV markets to counter any incursion (and the Big 10 makes the most money of any conference...SEC is 2nd, ACC is third).

    Right now, Duke really doesn't have to worry...the ACC is immune to any incursion b/c there's no schools that would make attractive additions to the Big 10 or the SEC.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    I moved. Now 12 miles from Heaven, 13 from Hell

    Pitt to Big Ten??

    What I've heard is that Pitt is possibly bolting the Big East to the Big Ten. Makes the most sense from a geographic basis without screwing up other conferences' football title games. Gives Penn State their primary rival back (although takes UWV away from Pitt, at least in terms of being in the same conference.)

    It leaves the Big East with only seven football teams (and 15 bball). They'd probably come after BC (and, they can have them!) I would guess that ECU or UCF might be candidates as well. Not sure what other semi-east coast schools are left. (This is my speculation, unlike the Pitt move, which I heard from a coach at a Big East school.)

    If Mizzu skips to the Big Ten, I'd expect the Big Twelve to go after TCU. Never understood why they chose Baylor over the Frogs back when the SWC imploded.

  5. #5
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    Feb 2007
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    Austin, TX
    Texas and Texas A&M almost went to the Pac 10 in 1994. That is a fact. Ann Richards and Bob Bullock (and certain other Tech grad legislators) held it up by holding back funds if they didn't drag Baylor and Tech along with them. Neither was up to Pac 10 academic snuff and would have made the conference too big, so the Big 8 became the Big 12. Texas is much more independent from the legislature than it used to be, and Tech and Baylor less powerful.

    The Big 10 is going to extend an invitation in the next 18 months. The Pac 10 has publicly said it is mulling expansion. If Notre Dame finally gives up the independent ghost to the Big 10, I think there won't be many dominoes.

    But if that team is Mizzou or Texas, there is going to be some fallout. The biggest of which will be the demise of the current Big XII. While most of the leftovers aren't much, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska all have very profitable athletic departments and are traditional powers in either football or basketball. They will be coveted by one of the surrounding conferences, and with respect to OU, that includes the SEC.

    We already have the BCS and non-BCS, but we are seeing a stratification within the BCS. It's the Big Ten, SEC and then everyone else right now as far as TV contracts and money goes. Northwestern and Vandy make more in TV revenue than Texas, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Florida State. The Big XII doesn't have the TV sets to lure in the money, and the ACC and the Big East compete against pro sports much more than the SEC and Big Ten do. It is highly likely that without change, by the end of the decade the ACC and Big East may be marginalized with the Big 12 being gone all together.

    I don't necesarrily believe all of this is going to happen. Like I said, it is speculative. But it's also very real, and college presidents are already talking.

    Check out this great Orlando Sentinel article that sets the stage. It is speculative as well, but also pretty informative on the $$ driving everything.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by DU82 View Post
    What I've heard is that Pitt is possibly bolting the Big East to the Big Ten. Makes the most sense from a geographic basis without screwing up other conferences' football title games. Gives Penn State their primary rival back (although takes UWV away from Pitt, at least in terms of being in the same conference.)

    It leaves the Big East with only seven football teams (and 15 bball). They'd probably come after BC (and, they can have them!) I would guess that ECU or UCF might be candidates as well. Not sure what other semi-east coast schools are left. (This is my speculation, unlike the Pitt move, which I heard from a coach at a Big East school.)

    If Mizzu skips to the Big Ten, I'd expect the Big Twelve to go after TCU. Never understood why they chose Baylor over the Frogs back when the SWC imploded.
    TCU does nothing for the Big XII but leave them further behind the SEC and Big Ten. If Mizzou bolts, Texas and Texas A&M are gone within a year. I guarantee it.

    It's all $$. It's not about geography, rivalries, or even common sense in some cases.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil View Post
    It's not about geography, rivalries, or even common sense in some cases.
    See, e.g., Boston College.

  8. #8
    Join Date
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    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Talking NCAA Realignment

    Here's what I understand to be the strongest forces there:

    1. The Pac 10 wants to add two teams. If they add, as seems sensible, Utah and BYU, none of the major conferences get hurt. The two Utah teams are rivals anyway, respectable academically, in a state that is growing in population and economics, and not too far away. The other options seem unlikely:

    (a) Adding two of the California state schools (Fresno State, etc.) just isn't going to happen, IMHO (where the H is often silent) because of crowded markets and academics.
    (b) Colorado may be available, but what's the second school?
    (c) Texas and Texas A&M are in some sense dream additions, given the money they generate and the population of Texas. But why the heck would they want to be part of a West coast conference, and how would it be more remunerative than what they have.

    2. The Big Ten really wants a twelfth team, and because of the money generated by the Big Ten network, the conference will likely get whomever it wants.

    (a) I know Notre Dame has never been in a football conference, but not having any inside knowledge, I wouldn't be surprised if the money were too attractive to turn down.
    (b) The Big 12 North teams seemingly would jump in a heartbeat. Miizzou has just about asked for an invitation. Even Nebraska looks interested.
    (c) The other adjacent possibilities would be Kentucky and Pitt. I won't say anything bad about academics at UKy, but I am not sure the academic side of the Big Ten would believe it had added another Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. The same argument may apply to Pitt, although I know very little about the school (but that hasn't stopped me in over 1,200 posts on DBR).
    (d) There apparently were discussions between Texas and the Big Ten, but I have a hard time seeing Texas going anywhere without taking Texas A&M with them, and the Big Ten doesn't want to be the big 13.

    3. The other force in the works is for the top conferences to say, "Sayonara," to the NCAA and form their own association. This doesn't affect conference alignments per se, but it will have seismic effects on college sports throughout the country.

    Anyway, what are the prospects for any of these forces dislodging the ACC and Duke or disrupting the SEC and, therefore, threatening instability in the ACC? I have a hard time imagining it. If the Big 12 loses a team to the Big Ten, I suppose it scours the plains and mountains for a replacement: TCU, Colorado State (which regularly drums CU on the gridiron), Houston, whatever.

    If the Big East loses a team to the Big Ten, then they will be looking to add a football team or two. The Big East is a poor excuse for a conference, and it tends to operate as a potluck dinner rather than as an athletic conference where everyone is treated the same. If BC wants to return, then Syracuse would probably be available. And I wouldn't be surprised if South Carolina wouldn't rather play in the ACC than in the SEC. The Frank McGuire bad blood and the fight with Eddie Cameron over academics was a lo-o-o-ng time ago. Moreover, the folks in my native state are actually capable of acting as though academics are important these days.

    If Texas and Texas A&M change conferences, then it could have widespread consequences for every conference, but it is hard to take that seriously.

    sagegrouse
    'I hope no one who reads this believes I have any idea what I am talking about'

  9. #9
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    If the author is right about the appearance of the Mega-Conference, then the ACC needs to become proactive. I see Syracuse, WVU and some combination of Pitt, Rutgers and UConn appearing on the scene.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Jim3k View Post
    If the author is right about the appearance of the Mega-Conference, then the ACC needs to become proactive. I see Syracuse, WVU and some combination of Pitt, Rutgers and UConn appearing on the scene.
    Ew, please no. What miserable basketball to watch.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    (a) I know Notre Dame has never been in a football conference, but not having any inside knowledge, I wouldn't be surprised if the money were too attractive to turn down.
    Notre Dame isn't joining any conference... They have a lucrative television contract with NBC and utilize tie-ins with the Big East to secure avenues to bowl invitations in the even that they don't qualify for a BCS bowl [and there's no way in heck that a bowl won't invite them when they qualify], and they don't have to share those revenues with anyone...

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by tallguy View Post
    The SEC isn't adding any schools anytime soon...there are no viable candidates that would bring in enough money to make up for splitting the pie into 13-16 pieces. The Big 12 is vulnerable b/c they just don't have the TV markets to counter any incursion (and the Big 10 makes the most money of any conference...SEC is 2nd, ACC is third).

    Right now, Duke really doesn't have to worry...the ACC is immune to any incursion b/c there's no schools that would make attractive additions to the Big 10 or the SEC.

    You post on the Big Lead forums don't you?

    In any event, Clemson, GT, Miami and FSU would be attractive to the SEC in the event they lose a team. I think the ACC would survive a Miami or even an FSU departure, Clemson is a charter member and GT has been around for over 30 years. Losing them hurts the ACC in football. Also if WVU or Pitt were to leave the Big East, they'd need to replace them. They could always go back to VT or BC (please take BC) but even UMD or even Duke would look attractive to them based on the Big East demographics,

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by YourLandlord View Post
    Ew, please no. What miserable basketball to watch.
    Well, the author doesn't concern himself with basketball.

    And, the schools I mention would be the likely leftovers after the BEast was raided by the BigTeleven. WVU could easily slide into the B10 or the SEC and Pitt just as easily to the BigT, to join PSU.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil View Post
    If Notre Dame finally gives up the independent ghost to the Big 10, I think there won't be many dominoes.

    But if that team is Mizzou or Texas, there is going to be some fallout. The biggest of which will be the demise of the current Big XII.
    I don't necesarrily believe all of this is going to happen. Like I said, it is speculative. But it's also very real, and college presidents are already talking.
    A-Tex...I follow Penn State football closely and your comments are right on line with the discussion going on amongst PSU and B10 fans. The Big 10/11 is now very motivated to add at least one additional team, and perhaps more (Joe Paterno actually helped get the ball rolling a year or two ago, and now Jim Delany the B10 commish and former UNC guard are pushing).

    The preference from the B10/11 point of view seems to be:
    Notre Dame---a natural fit in many ways, but plenty of resistance from many at ND
    Texas---the hot new candidate and one which would be a good fit in every way but geographically
    Texas A&M---part of the Texas package?
    Mizzou and Nebraska

    Pitt---not much support; they just don't add much (Pittsburgh area and media are already well represented in Penn State and appeal for tOSU)

    The Big10 Network has been very successful and the Big 10 is now rivaling the SEC in overall financial strength and distributions to member institutions.

    I don't see too many scenarios that spill over to Duke, but you never know for sure when the winds start blowing.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by RelativeWays View Post
    They could always go back to VT or BC (please take BC) but even UMD or even Duke would look attractive to them based on the Big East demographics,
    But why would any of those teams want to play in the Big East instead of the ACC? Especially Duke.

  16. #16
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by RelativeWays View Post
    You post on the Big Lead forums don't you?

    In any event, Clemson, GT, Miami and FSU would be attractive to the SEC in the event they lose a team. I think the ACC would survive a Miami or even an FSU departure, Clemson is a charter member and GT has been around for over 30 years. Losing them hurts the ACC in football. Also if WVU or Pitt were to leave the Big East, they'd need to replace them. They could always go back to VT or BC (please take BC) but even UMD or even Duke would look attractive to them based on the Big East demographics,
    Seems to me schools make these decisions based on how much money they can make from football, and if that is the case, no school is leaving the ACC for the Big East.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by RoyalBlue08 View Post
    Seems to me schools make these decisions based on how much money they can make from football, and if that is the case, no school is leaving the ACC for the Big East.
    I agree. Even so, Maryland has been mentioned as a possible B10 candidate. Why them as opposed to any other ACC team?

    Rhetorical question actually, since I don't see Maryland or any of the rest of the ACC as a viable B10 school. The Terps have no Midwest or national appeal. In fact, only Duke and BC have any national appeal (Duke, some in the midwest), and even that small quantum would be insufficient to attract the B10 (not to mention Duke's small stadium draw). There is hardly any TV market for the ACC or its erstwhile members in the Midwest.

  18. #18
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    Washington, DC
    As someone who hails from B10 country and has deep roots in Texas, here's what I've heard:

    -Texas is indeed a viable candidate for B10 expansion. They fit in line academically, with regards to resources and is a research institution with a wide alumni base and lots of dollars rolling in. As A-Tex said, the only drawback for Texas is geography. Texas would absolutely love to take their chances in a B10 West division with Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, and Minnesota on a regular basis.
    -Notre Dame is clearly choice 1-100. But, adding Texas to the mix lets Notre Dame know that the B10 is serious: either get onboard the gravy train or you lose out on everything. I wouldn't be surprised if the B10 conspires to leave Notre Dame off their schedules if they don't join (leaving them with about 4-5 games a year that they have to fill).
    -Pitt is still an option, and they fit in geographically. They, however, are not the glamorous coup that stealing Texas would be.
    -One trip-up to Texas's possibilities is that they would try to pressure the B10 to also take A&M as well, leaving the B10 with 13 teams instead of 12. We will see how that would work, but having Texas and A&M leave would be the beginning of the end of the B12.
    -Mizzou and Nebraska are possibilities, but would they leave their biggest rivals in the B12 (Kansas and Colorado, respectively). Both would be better geographical alternatives to Texas, but again, not the bigger draw.

    Notre Dame is still the best option, but with Texas as a real alternative, Notre Dame will finally be forced to speak now or forever hold their peace, so to speak.
    Check out the Duke Basketball Roundup!

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  19. #19
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    I guess what I am saying is that if these dominos fall. If the ACC doesn't stay proactive in this game, it, along with the Big East, will become more marginalized in football than they already are -- possibly becoming the east coast equivalents of the WAC/Mountain West, with the "super-conferences" being the SEC/PAC-10/Big Ten and remnants of the Big XII.

    I don't know how this would effect basketball, maybe a lot, maybe not at all. But if you don't think this is a possibility in football, I'd ask you to look at where all of the undefeated teams in BCS conferences came from since the 2002 Fiesta Bowl with Miami, and where every single BCS title game participant came from. There has not been a viable national championship team from the ACC or the Big East in eight football seasons. That's a lot.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    HAnyway, what are the prospects for any of these forces dislodging the ACC and Duke or disrupting the SEC and, therefore, threatening instability in the ACC? I have a hard time imagining it. If the Big 12 loses a team to the Big Ten, I suppose it scours the plains and mountains for a replacement: TCU, Colorado State (which regularly drums CU on the gridiron), Houston, whatever.

    If the Big 12 loses a team, the conference is gone within 5 years or relegated to Mountain West status. Texas is more likely to go independent and start it's own network (which it has already considered doing) before it will stay in a Big XII with no championship game. Not a good idea, but better than staying in a dying conference.

    It's money folks. No non-BCS team, except *MAYBE* BYU will ever get into a BCS conference. The BCS or its future equivalent is more likely to shrink than grow.

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