Here's what I understand to be the strongest forces there:
1. The Pac 10 wants to add two teams. If they add, as seems sensible, Utah and BYU, none of the major conferences get hurt. The two Utah teams are rivals anyway, respectable academically, in a state that is growing in population and economics, and not too far away. The other options seem unlikely:
(a) Adding two of the California state schools (Fresno State, etc.) just isn't going to happen, IMHO (where the H is often silent) because of crowded markets and academics.
(b) Colorado may be available, but what's the second school?
(c) Texas and Texas A&M are in some sense dream additions, given the money they generate and the population of Texas. But why the heck would they want to be part of a West coast conference, and how would it be more remunerative than what they have.
2. The Big Ten really wants a twelfth team, and because of the money generated by the Big Ten network, the conference will likely get whomever it wants.
(a) I know Notre Dame has never been in a football conference, but not having any inside knowledge, I wouldn't be surprised if the money were too attractive to turn down.
(b) The Big 12 North teams seemingly would jump in a heartbeat. Miizzou has just about asked for an invitation. Even Nebraska looks interested.
(c) The other adjacent possibilities would be Kentucky and Pitt. I won't say anything bad about academics at UKy, but I am not sure the academic side of the Big Ten would believe it had added another Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. The same argument may apply to Pitt, although I know very little about the school (but that hasn't stopped me in over 1,200 posts on DBR).
(d) There apparently were discussions between Texas and the Big Ten, but I have a hard time seeing Texas going anywhere without taking Texas A&M with them, and the Big Ten doesn't want to be the big 13.
3. The other force in the works is for the top conferences to say, "Sayonara," to the NCAA and form their own association. This doesn't affect conference alignments per se, but it will have seismic effects on college sports throughout the country.
Anyway, what are the prospects for any of these forces dislodging the ACC and Duke or disrupting the SEC and, therefore, threatening instability in the ACC? I have a hard time imagining it. If the Big 12 loses a team to the Big Ten, I suppose it scours the plains and mountains for a replacement: TCU, Colorado State (which regularly drums CU on the gridiron), Houston, whatever.
If the Big East loses a team to the Big Ten, then they will be looking to add a football team or two. The Big East is a poor excuse for a conference, and it tends to operate as a potluck dinner rather than as an athletic conference where everyone is treated the same. If BC wants to return, then Syracuse would probably be available. And I wouldn't be surprised if South Carolina wouldn't rather play in the ACC than in the SEC. The Frank McGuire bad blood and the fight with Eddie Cameron over academics was a lo-o-o-ng time ago. Moreover, the folks in my native state are actually capable of acting as though academics are important these days.
If Texas and Texas A&M change conferences, then it could have widespread consequences for every conference, but it is hard to take that seriously.
sagegrouse
'I hope no one who reads this believes I have any idea what I am talking about'