DBR Guys....are you going to post your 'Seeding Possibilities Grid', that shows all of the potential seedings based on the outcomes of this last weekend of games? Its a very cool way to see how the standings and pairings might work out, depending on these last six league games.
I know its probably quite a bit of work, especially when you include the tie-breaker about record against the top teams, but you've published the Grid in past year, and I think it is really valuable.
Keep up the good work!
I'd like it if we could be on the other side of the draw from these two. I'd rather only have to play one of these teams in the tourney and not both. Not that we can't beat them both, but the emotion that goes into these rivalry games is really intense, and I'd rather save some gas in the tank for the NCAA's.
That said, I looked at the tie breaker, and if UNC loses to Duke, V Tech loses to Clemson, and BC wins at G Tech, it all works out. UVA gets the one seed. VT gets the 2 seed by virtue of higher winning % in the three team tie with BC and UNC. UNC and BC are both 1-2 amongst the three. So next you go to record against UVa, both are 1-0, that solves nothing. Finally, you go to record against the team seeded #2, VTech, which favors BC. So the top 4 seeks would be Virginia, V Tech, BC and UNC. UNC and MD would play in the second round, and we wouldn't have to face either until we made it to the finals. That's what I'll be rooting for.
Three games are left after Saturday's trio of regular season games and this is what we know:
(1) The bottom three seeds are set -- No. 10 NC State; No. 11 Wake Forest and No.12 Wake Forest.
That's it -- no other seed is determined.
The top of the league is a mess -- Virginia is guaranteed a share of the regular season title, but they could be seeded first, second, third or fourth. North Carolina is even more up in the air -- they could be seeded first or maybe fifth!
Virginia is 11-5 and will at least share the regular season title. They will win it outright if UNC, BC and VPI all lose Sunday. In that case, those three teams will be in a four-way tie for second with Maryland, which is finished at 10-6.
The easiest way to break it down is to take those three contenders and realize that if they win Sunday, they tie for first. If they lose Sunday, they tie with Maryland.
Please note -- tiebreakers only impact tournament seeds -- any team tied at 11-5 will be able to claim a share of the regular season title.
I can't even begin to work out all the myriad tiebreakers, since there are so many possibilities. But for Duke, it's fairly simple -- if they win Sunday, Duke will be seeded sixth and will play Wake Forest Thursday night at 9:30 p.m.
If Duke loses to UNC, their fate will depend on Georgia Tech's home game with Boston College. If Georgia Tech loses, it doesn't matter what Duke does -- Duke is still the No. 6 seed and will face Wake.
A GTech win and Duke loss would tie both at 8-8, but Tech wins the tiebreaker (trust me) and that would mean Duke is the No. 7 seed. In that case the Devils would play N.C. State Thursday at 7 p.m.
The best scenario would be a win by Duke and the two Techs -- if that happens, UNC would ended up seeded 5th (they would tie Maryland for fourth, but lose the head-to-head tiebreaker) and have to play on Thursday!
That's something to dream about!
My understanding of the tie-breakers
1 - When two teams are tied in the standings, regular season head-to-head results are used as the tie-breaker.
2 - If the two teams split their regular season games, the tie is broken by comparing each team's records against the team occupying the highest position in the standings, and then continuing down until one team gains an advantage.
3 - If three or more teams are tied, the combined record of each team against the other teams involved is used to break the tie. After this procedure, if two teams remain tied procedure 2 is followed.
4 - If procedures 2 and/or 3 fail to establish an advantage, a coin-flip to break the tie will be conducted by the Commissioner.
5 - If there is more than one tie in the standings, and when utilizing the tie breaking procedures you come to a pair of teams tied, a team's record against combined tied teams is used, rather than performance against the individual tied teams.
S, unless GA T wins and Duke loses, in which case GA T is 6th and Duke is 7th, if Duke wins or if GA T loses, Duke is 6th and GA T 7-th.
First through Fourth is more complex.
Scenario Number First Second Third Fourth Fifth
1-VT, BC, NC VT (1) NC (2) BC (3) VA (4) MD (5)
2-VT, BC, (NC) BC (1) VT (2) VA (3) MD (4) NC (5)
3-VT, (BC), NC VT (1) NC (2) VA (3) BC (4) MD (5)
4-VT, (BC), (NC) VT (1) VA (2) BC (3) NC (4) MD (5)
5-(VT), BC, NC (1) BC (2) VA (3) VT (4) MD (5)
6-(VT), BC, (NC) BC (1) VA (2) VT (3) MD (4) NC (5)
7-(VT), (BC), NC (1) VA (2) VT (3) BC (4) MD (5)
8-(VT), (BC), (NC) VA (1) VT (2) BC (3) MD (4) NC (5)
Assuming each games is 50-50 which I admit is a bogus assumption but math is easier, and weighting first - 5, second =4, third = 3, fourth =2 and fifth =1 point
VT weighted 31 3 first 2 second 2 third 1 fourth 0 fifth
VA weighted 28 1 first 3 second 3 third 1 fourth 0 fifth
BC weighted 27 2 first 1 second 3 third 2 fourth 0 fifth
NC weighted 23 2 first 2 second 0 third 1 fourth 3 fifth
MD weighted 11 0 first 0 second 0 third 3 fourth 5 fifth
First Round - Thursday, March 8 Game 1 (#8 FSU/Clemson vs. #9 Clemson/FSU-) . RLF . 12:00
First Round - Thursday, March 8 Game 2 (#5 MD/UNC vs. #12-Miami) . RLF . 2:00
First Round - Thursday, March 8 Game 3 (#7 GA T/Duke vs. #10-NC St) . ESPN2 . 7:00
First Round - Thursday, March 8 Game 4 (#6 Duke/GA T vs. #11-WF) . RLF . 9:00
Last edited by ACCBBallFan; 03-04-2007 at 07:40 AM.
Scenario 2 or 4 would be nice
I like all the even #'s, 'cause it means we beat them darn heels!
Of those four (2,4,6,8) I like #4 the least, because unc still gets a bye. They are the 5th seed in #'s 2, 6, & 8.
I like #8 the best, with UVA then in 1st, because I don't think VT & BC have been in the league long enough to have "paid their dues". Let them fight, scratch, and claw in the toughest league in America for a few more years before getting any kind of title, even the unofficial one for the regular season.
"...Man, who even now finds scarce breathing room on this vast globe, cannot retire from the Old World to some yet undiscovered continent, and wait for the slow action of such causes to replace, by a new creation, the Eden he has wasted".
-George Perkins Marsh (1864)
With the VA T loss to Clemson, it's crazy. If UNC beats Duke 1st place; if Duke beats UNC 5th place. Talk about double or nothing.
And not looking good for Duke backing in to 6th with a loss to UNC as Ga T is up 16-2 at start, now 21-12.
So UNC can be 1 or 5.
UVA and BC can be 1, 2, 3, or 4.
VA Tech can be 2,3, or 4.
MD can be 4 or 5.
Duke and Ga T can be 6 or 7.
Clemson is 8 seed.
FSU is 9th seed and plays Clemson at noon Thursday
NC State is 10th seed and plays 7 GA T or Duke Th @ 7 PM.
Wake is 11th seed and olays 6 Duke or GA T Th @ 9 PM
Miami is 12th seed and plays #5 MD or UNC Th @ 2 PM.
Last edited by ACCBBallFan; 03-04-2007 at 03:34 PM.