Pomeroy Projections on Feb. 14

[MChambers]

Here's the season to date in the ACC:

		ORTG
1	Duke            110.55
2	Maryland        107.73
3	Wake Forest	101.55
4	Virginia        101.35
5	Boston College	100.72
6	Virginia Tech	99.80
7	Georgia Tech	99.01
8	Miami           98.60
9	North Carolina	98.25
10	NC State        97.44
11	Florida State	97.30
12	Clemson	        96.29
		
		DRTG
1	Duke          	94.04
2	Virginia Tech	94.40
3	Clemson	        94.83
4	Virginia       	95.54
5	Maryland     	96.91
6	Wake Forest	98.22
7	Georgia Tech	100.16
8	Florida State	100.67
9	North Carolina	104.69
10	NC State     	108.67
11	Miami         	109.40
12	Boston College	109.74
		
		E Margin
1	Duke          	16.51
2	Maryland     	10.81
3	Virginia       	5.81
4	Virginia Tech	5.39
5	Wake Forest	3.34
6	Clemson      	1.46
7	Georgia Tech	-1.15
8	Florida State	-3.37
9	North Carolina	-6.43
10	Boston College	-9.02
11	Miami         	-10.81
12	NC State    	-11.23

UNC is again well-balanced, ranking 9th in both categories. I can understand UNC's offensive trouble, not having much outside shooting or very experienced guards, but I can't really understand the defensive troubles, at least from a talent standpoint.

[pfrduke]

UNC is again well-balanced, ranking 9th in both categories. I can understand UNC's offensive trouble, not having much outside shooting or very experienced guards, but I can't really understand the defensive troubles, at least from a talent standpoint.

Their biggest problem on defense is not forcing turnovers. Every ACC opponent except one (Virginia, who shot lights out), has turned it over less often than once in every five trips, and the Heels are down at the bottom of the conference in opponent turnover percentage in ACC play. They've also struggled a bit on the defensive glass - 5 of 10 opponents have rebounded more than 35% of their own misses (including us at 44%!). Those two put together mean both more shots at the basket for opponents and fewer easy opportunities for the Heels (because they don't get as many run-outs from turnovers and defensive rebounds).