The bid for a No. 1 seed

[El_Diablo]

Syracuse is easily ahead of both Duke and WVU. They have a better record, a better record against the Top-25, a better record against the Top-50, and their losses are to better teams overall.

Yeah, Syracuse made a ridiculous jump in the polls after beating Cal and UNC the same week, but they did a good job of holding strong after that. The Cal win is still helping them because the Bears are somehow in the RPI top-25. Cal has beaten one top-50 team all year...Washington.

Anyway, Syracuse deserves a #1 seed more than either Duke or WVU. But I don't think the gap is very wide. Especially considering Syracuse finished 0-2 and have an injured starter.

[CDu]

I agree that Syracuse will be a #1, but their record is similar to Duke's, their record against the top 50 is similar to Duke's, they have a slightly worse RPI and SOS than Duke, and they lost their last 2 games.

Their record is similar to Duke's (but slightly better). Their record against the Top-50 is similar to Duke's (but slightly better). Their record against the Top-25 is MUCH better than Duke's. And the committee doesn't put any added weight to results in most recent games anymore. The slight RPI advantage won't offset those other factors.

[House G]

Not disputing that--I'm sure there are alot of teams with better records against the top 25. It's not entirely Duke's fault that Carolina fell out of the top 25.

[SCMatt33]

He is usually pretty good and has Duke as a 2 in the EAST... ?

Kentucky 1
Pitt 4
Villanova 3
Duke 2

Not sure I buy it.

I wouldn't mind this so much. Villanova is tanking so bad it's not funny, good chance they don't make the sweet 16. If they do, most of the guys, like cunningham, who killed us last year are gone. They can't rebound this year. Even if we did play them, we'd outrebound them by 15 and unless scottie reynolds goes all jimmy baron from 3, we'll beat them. I honestly don't care who we play in the elite 8 because it will be tough no matter what.

[Troublemaker]

That is why I fear a team that can take advantage of Duke's scoring droughts. A team that is low scoring won't take advantage of that and low scoring games always favor Duke.

Yes, in general, I agree that I don't want Duke to face good offensive teams, especially ones that spread the court. I'd prefer the defense-oriented opponents. It's because, away from home, it's been so rare for the Big 3 to all be clicking and shooting well at once. We just don't shoot that well away from Cameron, so there's sort of an artificial ceiling on how good Duke's offense can be when on the road, a ceiling that this team has rarely, if ever, broken through this season. Almost all of our explosive offensive games came at home; so, if, during the tournament, Duke runs into a good offense that is clicking that day, I don't think we can keep up with them. We will have a difficult time winning a shootout, but on the other hand, we've spent all season winning defensive slugfests. That's the type of game that we're most "comfortable" with (as comfortable as an ugly defensive slugfest can be, I mean).

[InSpades]

One thing that is hurting Duke is that they played 4 of their 5 games against top 25 RPI teams on the road. Combine with the fact that Duke wasn't the best road team...

West Virginia in comparison played 5 home, 1 neutral and 3 away vs. the top 25 RPI. What would Duke have done with 5 home games against top 25 teams? I guess we'll never know. West Virginia managed 1 road win vs. the top 25 but also had 2 losses at home vs. the top 25. Duke held serve... winning their home game and losing their road games.

[CDu]

One thing that is hurting Duke is that they played 4 of their 5 games against top 25 RPI teams on the road. Combine with the fact that Duke wasn't the best road team...

West Virginia in comparison played 5 home, 1 neutral and 3 away vs. the top 25 RPI. What would Duke have done with 5 home games against top 25 teams? I guess we'll never know. West Virginia managed 1 road win vs. the top 25 but also had 2 losses at home vs. the top 25. Duke held serve... winning their home game and losing their road games.

Yes, part of our problem with our Top-25 record is that its mostly road games. But you can only write that off so much.

Note as well that while WVU lost twice at home to Top-25 teams, those losses were to better teams than the team that we beat at home. Syracuse (1 seed) and Villanova (3 seed) are better teams than Maryland (~5 seed) is.

So WVU has better top-end wins and better top-end losses.

Basically, the only argument in favor of Duke is that we beat better "bad" teams, and we beat those "bad" teams by a wider margin. WVU definitely has the better resume against the really good teams.

[cptnflash]

I wouldn't mind this so much. Villanova is tanking so bad it's not funny, good chance they don't make the sweet 16. If they do, most of the guys, like cunningham, who killed us last year are gone. They can't rebound this year. Even if we did play them, we'd outrebound them by 15 and unless scottie reynolds goes all jimmy baron from 3, we'll beat them. I honestly don't care who we play in the elite 8 because it will be tough no matter what.

I totally disagree. I would way, way, WAY rather play WV, KSU, OSU, or GTWN than Kentucky in the Elite 8. I honestly don't think we can beat the Wildcats. They just have too much NBA caliber talent for us. I've said it before and I still believe it's true, the main advantage of being a #1 seed is not having to play either Kentucky or Kansas until the Final Four (and maybe getting lucky and avoiding at least one of them altogether).

We'll find out in less than an hour.

[CMARTZ]

Where is Ohio State in all of this? They destroyed Minnesota in the Big Ten final...

[CDu]

Where is Ohio State in all of this? They destroyed Minnesota in the Big Ten final...

OSU is a two seed. Minnesota is not very good. Killing them isn't very exciting. OSU is a dangerous team, though, for sure.

[YourLandlord]

Look. Duke won the ACC regular season. Duke won the ACC tournament. Duke has a great RPI.

DUKE IS GETTING A NUMBER ONE SEED.

There is no possibility that does not happen. Stop your worrying about that.

[Chitowndevil]

Yes, part of our problem with our Top-25 record is that its mostly road games. But you can only write that off so much.

Note as well that while WVU lost twice at home to Top-25 teams, those losses were to better teams than the team that we beat at home. Syracuse (1 seed) and Villanova (3 seed) are better teams than Maryland (~5 seed) is.

So WVU has better top-end wins and better top-end losses.

Basically, the only argument in favor of Duke is that we beat better "bad" teams, and we beat those "bad" teams by a wider margin. WVU definitely has the better resume against the really good teams.

Nah, the best argument for Duke is that they won (shared) their regular season conference title AND won their conference tournament. In other words, they did all they could do - the committee tends to and should reward teams for that. I actually think Ohio State belongs in the discussion for that reason, but clearly loses out due to a much weaker overall schedule, particularly out of conference.

I still say that if Duke ends up behind WVU on the S-curve it will be because of the loss to Georgetown, which WVU beat twice in the past two weeks.

[Son of Mojo]

# 1 in the South....let's see who they put with us.

[YourLandlord]

DUKE IS GETTING A NUMBER ONE SEED.

Y'all need to just listen to what Uncle Landlord has to say, okay?