Phase III -- 2009-10

[Jumbo]

Want to know the most difficult question I faced in starting this thread? What's the proper time period for Phase III? Ideally, it's through the first UNC game, which is what I did last year. But because of expansion, Duke doesn't even play UNC until the second half of the ACC season. It's 12 games away. I went with that last year, and it felt like a long time. Another logical stopping point would be the Georgetown game -- it's the last game of the month, it's a big battle and Duke will have played 7 ACC games. But, in the end, I'll go with Feb. 4 at home against Georgia Tech -- it's the mid-point of the ACC schedule, and it's time to try something new. So, as always, here are the questions I'll be pondering as we go through this lastest phase (in no particular order -- with the exception of the first one).

1) Can Duke stay healthy?
I think I've been pretty clear on where this would rank all season.

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
I sort of touched on it in the last phase, but it's of much greater concern now. Kyle is not playing badly by any means. In fact, a few comparisons were made to G's slow start last year, but Kyle has been much better in the pre-conference season that G was a year ago. It's just that he hasn't quite matched expectations, which isn't such a big deal.

What is a bigger deal, though, is finding the best way to use his skills. Announcers have touched on this, but in Duke's system, Singler is a better fit for the 4 -- he has the size to rebound and defend college 4s, but the perimeter skills to abuse them offensively. By playing him at the 3, he's losing a lot of that advantage off the bounce and behind the arc. So what should Duke do? Run plays for him in the post. Invert the offense. I've been preaching this since before the season started -- Duke has a real size advantage at a number of positions and should take advantage of it. In fact, I've even suggested posting Scheyer here and there. But Kyle has legit post moves, a great feel around the hoop, etc. Maybe Duke hasn't been doing much of this in order to a) save a different look for conference season and b) focus on improving other aspects of the offense. But last year we ran sets for G in the post, and Kyle is significantly better on the block. Plus, this could go a long way toward solving Duke's problem of not getting to the FT line as often as we'd like.

So, be on the lookout for where Kyle catches the ball. I'd like him to receive it on the block or the elbow here and there, and even involve him in some 1/3 or 2/3 pick-and-roll plays, where he's the screener with the ability to slip the screen, roll, pop, or drag a smaller man to the block for an iso play. This is one area where the coaching staff simply must be more innovative against better defensive teams -- Duke has to take advantage of what will almost always be a major matchup advantage.

3) How will Duke's bigs handle similarly sized teams and true low-post scorers?
We got a good look at size against UConn, and handled it well. But we'll see big teams far more often during ACC play. And the one thing UConn didn't have was a back-to-the-basket scorer. Well, tomorrow we'll get a healthy dose of old friend Trevor Booker. You know the other names -- Favors, Lawal, Aminu, even Trapani, plus Brackins and Monroe out of conference -- and that's just this phase, before we get a look at UNC.

Duke has shown, in limited opportunities, that it can rebound and provide good help defense against teams with some size (Gonzaga too). But what will our deep frontcourt look like when they're forced to guard guys who are big and skilled with the ball? Will we end up in a lot of foul trouble? Will we double with two bigs Should be interesting to watch.

4) Can Andre Dawkins make strides defensively?
We already know a lot about Andre as a frosh. His jump shot is as pure as you'll find. His handle needs work, which is why he's primarily a spot-up shooter on offense, although he's athletic enough to finish well on the break. But the key to his impact against good teams will be his defense. Right now, we all know that he's lacking in that area. But Duke obviously needs him to play legit minutes, given the shallow backcourt. Will there be a light-bulb moment for him on D? He doesn't need to become a stopper or anything close. He just has to keep track of his assignments within the team concept so the team can function on a high level. So keep an eye on him guarding off the ball in the next few games. His progress in this area will help determine how much he can play, how versatile Duke can be (more of the small lineup with Singler at the 4) and, ultimately, how good the team can be.

5) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
Duke's shooting .433 from beyond the arc, which is absurdly productive. (Harder to tell what's more impressive, in fact, that number or the .295 mark Duke has allowed opponents to shot). It's hard to imagine keeping up that hot a pace in conference play, especially because it's basically coming only from a quartet of players. Plus, against the five tougher opponents (ASU, UConn, Wisconsin, St. John's, Gonzaga), Duke hi just .318 from deep. That's a huge difference. The question becomes how far will Duke fall off in ACC play, and how will the team compensate?

6) Is Scheyer too good to be true?
He's an elite player. We can all agree on that. And his current rate of production is stunning. But can he keep up this pace against ACC foes? He has so much responsibility -- ball-handling, setting everyone up, being a major scorer, wing defense, leadership -- that it's a real heavy burden to bear. Add in the fact that he is a streaky shooter (with last season's slump being an extreme example) and there's some reason for concern.

However, I've provided evidence before that in the past, his production has increased late in the season, against top competition. Granted, he's in a different role, this season, and will be facing defense designed to stop him (with more ball pressure, I'm sure) unlike ever before. But he has a long enough track record to count on him, and I think a lot of his raw stats will remain high. It will be interesting to see if he can be remotely as efficient, though.

7) Will Zoubek dip like last season?
Can Zoubek maintain his recent high level of play? We've all been impressed with how Brian has played, and he seems to have found a nice, comfortable role that is aided by Duke's depth up front. Here's the only thing to worry about, though: He started out well last year, too. Remember the big game against Xavier with the backdoor passes and the blocked shots? Remember the double-double on New Year's Eve against Loyola? Before Jan. 1 last year, he was averaging 7.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg and 1.1 bpg. By February, he'd lost his starting spot. And after Jan. 1, he averaged just 2.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg and 0.7 bpg. Again, I think he's in a much better situation this year, and he's just a better player. But he'll be worth watching closely against good teams.

8) Is Mason Plumlee ready to rise?
His numbers in the Penn game were exciting, although a lot of those stats came really late in a game that was pretty much a full dose of garbage time. Executing against ACC opponents is a totally different story. Still, I don't think it's out of the range of possibilities that 10 games from now, he emerges as the best of Duke's bigs. The biggest keys first will be whether he starts to react quicker, instinctively does fundamental things like boxing out and shields the ball and stops making iffy passes. After that, if he can face up and make plays from the elbow, clean up offensive rebounds, lobs, or good entry passes to finish inside and defend a variety of bigs straight-up, Duke will get a lot better. None of this requires his turning into a dominant big guy or playing 30-plus minutes. If he can be a really good role player who can add a dose of creativity to what is otherwise a perimeter-based attack by the end of this phase, that would be very, very good.

9) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?
In tough games, Duke tends to bog down offensively. Those are the situations where Duke needs to be even more committed to making the defense work by cutting down on the dribble, increasing the motion and involving the post players. See how the guys react when the D gets tough.

10) Duke has played a contain D so far. Will we see more pressure?
The guards in the ACC aren't great. And Duke -- especially with a healthy Mason Plumlee -- still has some ability to pressure the ball and the wings. With a lineup of, for instance. Scheyer, Smith, Singler, Thomas and Mason, you can do all sorts of things -- switch off screens, trap, extend. Thomas could guard a problematic wing or even a point guard. It would be nice to know that in games where the half-court offense isn't working, Duke will be able to force turnovers and get out and run. This period will be the perfect time to see whether K is willing to extend a bit more. Duke worked on a zone for a long time against Penn, and we might see it in spurts. But man-to-man is this team's bread and butter, and I don't think it has to be a containment man D all the time.

I tried to keep the questions below 10, because I didn't want to mention something specific for every player and I wanted to leave some room for future phases. Obviously, there's been a lot of talk about the distribution of minutes up front, about how K will utilize Ryan Kelly, etc. I could've thrown a bunch of other stuff in (and I feel like I forgot one thing, which I might add). But otherwise, this is a good list to watch with specific, attainable goals in mind.

[Bob Green]

Thanks for another great phase analysis. It is a pleasure to actually read and discuss Duke Basketball on DBR. It seems at least 50 percent of the threads these days are about Kentucky and Carolina. Oh well, moving forward...

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?

...So, be on the lookout for where Kyle catches the ball. I'd like him to receive it on the block or the elbow here and there...Duke has to take advantage of what will almost always be a major matchup advantage.

Singler is currently the team's third leading scorer (15.9 ppg) and second leading rebounder (7.2 rpg). These are not shabby numbers but everyone's expectations of Singler were sky high coming into the season so there is a false perception Singler is having a down year to date. As we are about to start ACC conference play, it is a good time for Singler to assert himself and turn in some dominant performances. As Jumbo states, Singler presents a match-up problem that Duke needs to exploit. I like the idea of inverting the offense with Singler posting up a smaller player and believe the team will be able to execute that strategy with Mason Plumlee in the line-up due to his ability to handle the ball and pass out on the perimeter. When Mason moves out to the perimeter his defender will have to go with him, which isn't the case with some of our other big men.

3) Can Andre Dawkins make strides defensively?

But Duke obviously needs him to play legit minutes, given the shallow backcourt. Will there be a light-bulb moment for him on D?

4) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?

The question becomes how far will Duke fall off in ACC play, and how will the team compensate?

I lumped these two questions together because in my mind they are interconnected. Duke needs Dawkins to make strides defensively because they need him on the court stretching opponent's defenses beyond their comfort zone. Without going overboard, and making the type of extravagant statement I'm frequently guilty of making when I allow my emotions to override my brain, I believe we need Dawkins to average 10 points a game during ACC play and beyond. Dawkins is a pure shooter who adds a leathal dimension to our offense. We need him on the court.

6) Will Zoubek dip like last season?

Can Zoubek maintain his recent high level of play? We've all been impressed with how Brian has played, and he seems to have found a nice, comfortable role that is aided by Duke's depth up front. Here's the only thing to worry about, though: He started out well last year, too.

I sure hope not. Duke has four players taller than 6'10" but three of the four are youngsters. Duke needs Zoubek's experience and leadership on the court. Zoubek is the guy who needs to be a steady influence upon the youngsters. A mainstay of Duke Basketball has been the tradition of seniors guiding underclassmen and teaching them the Duke Way. Zoubek's 7.7 rebounds and 7 points per game are important, but it is his experience Duke will need when the games get tough in hostile environments on the road in the ACC.

9) Duke has played a contain D so far. Will we see more pressure?

The guards in the ACC aren't great. And Duke -- especially with a healthy Mason Plumlee -- still has some ability to pressure the ball and the wings. With a lineup of, for instance. Scheyer, Smith, Singler, Thomas and Mason, you can do all sorts of things -- switch off screens, trap, extend. Thomas could guard a problematic wing or even a point guard. It would be nice to know that in games where the half-court offense isn't working, Duke will be able to force turnovers and get out and run.

The defense has been very good. Duke held Gonzaga to 38 points below their season average. Was that an aberration? Well, Duke also held Connecticut to a season low 59 points which is 16 points below their season average. So against two Top 15 teams the defense dominated. So that leads me to ask the obvious: Why try and fix something that isn't broke? However, we all know basketball is a dynamic sport with constantly changing match-ups and situations so I am all for tinkering with things in order to improve. With the perceived lack of quality guards in the ACC pressuring the ball with Smith and Thomas seems to be a solid option.

What has me beeming with optimism as the team enters Phase III is that this team appears to be a team that is still developing and coming to terms with their strengths and weaknesses. This is a team that looks like it will be much stronger in March (and hopefully April) than it was it November and December.

[Mcluhan]

Very nicely done. These are indeed the relevant questions.

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
I sort of touched on it in the last phase, but it's of much greater concern now. Kyle is not playing badly by any means. In fact, a few comparisons were made to G's slow start last year, but Kyle has been much better in the pre-conference season that G was a year ago. It's just that he hasn't quite matched expectations, which isn't such a big deal.

What is a bigger deal, though, is finding the best way to use his skills. Announcers have touched on this, but in Duke's system, Singler is a better fit for the 4 -- he has the size to rebound and defend college 4s, but the perimeter skills to abuse them offensively. By playing him at the 3, he's losing a lot of that advantage off the bounce and behind the arc. So what should Duke do? Run plays for him in the post. Invert the offense. I've been preaching this since before the season started -- Duke has a real size advantage at a number of positions and should take advantage of it. In fact, I've even suggested posting Scheyer here and there. But Kyle has legit post moves, a great feel around the hoop, etc. Maybe Duke hasn't been doing much of this in order to a) save a different look for conference season and b) focus on improving other aspects of the offense. But last year we ran sets for G in the post, and Kyle is significantly better on the block. Plus, this could go a long way toward solving Duke's problem of not getting to the FT line as often as we'd like.

So, be on the lookout for where Kyle catches the ball. I'd like him to receive it on the block or the elbow here and there, and even involve him in some 1/3 or 2/3 pick-and-roll plays, where he's the screener with the ability to slip the screen, roll, pop, or drag a smaller man to the block for an iso play. This is one area where the coaching staff simply must be more innovative against better defensive teams -- Duke has to take advantage of what will almost always be a major matchup advantage.

My thoughts exactly-- now that I've read your thoughts, that is! Ferry and Laettner both had success with a good mix of inside/outside moves, and while each of these guys is different, I think both past players provide good examples of where Kyle might fit into the offense. It will also get him to the line, which is critical to our success down the road. If you're not getting to the line, you're not only scoring less, but you're not putting pressure on the opposing coach. Kyle's averaging fewer than 4 FTs a game thus far, and I'd love to see that number doubled over the next month.

4) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
Duke's shooting .433 from beyond the arc, which is absurdly productive. (Harder to tell what's more impressive, in fact, that number or the .295 mark Duke has allowed opponents to shot). It's hard to imagine keeping up that hot a pace in conference play, especially because it's basically coming only from a quartet of players. Plus, against the five tougher opponents (ASU, UConn, Wisconsin, St. John's, Gonzaga), Duke hi just .318 from deep. That's a huge difference. The question becomes how far will Duke fall off in ACC play, and how will the team compensate?

We'd be smart to assume that, if not a mirage, it is something that will certainly desert us in an important game this month. We don't currently have much of a plan B, and rather than look to Mason or Miles for the answer to this one, I'm inclined to put it to the Big 3 first.

We might do well to think of free throws as insurance against missed 3s. If we're hitting 5-10 more FTs a game, that's 2+ 3s that we don't need.

5) Is Scheyer too good to be true?
He's an elite player. We can all agree on that. And his current rate of production is stunning. But can he keep up this pace against ACC foes? He has so much responsibility -- ball-handling, setting everyone up, being a major scorer, wing defense, leadership -- that it's a real heavy burden to bear. Add in the fact that he is a streaky shooter (with last season's slump being an extreme example) and there's some reason for concern.

However, I've provided evidence before that in the past, his production has increased late in the season, against top competition. Granted, he's in a different role, this season, and will be facing defense designed to stop him (with more ball pressure, I'm sure) unlike ever before. But he has a long enough track record to count on him, and I think a lot of his raw stats will remain high. It will be interesting to see if he can be remotely as efficient, though.

I'd forgotten about Scheyer's slump last year.

With all the responsibilities this guy has, his role as the PG/primary ballhandler is the most important. I find myself wishing for a relatively risk-free way to prepare Nolan for the unfortunate possibility that he might have to resume full time PG duties at some point, a la the couple games that Hurley missed in '92, when Grant took over much of the ballhandling.

8) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?
In tough games, Duke tends to bog down offensively. Those are the situations where Duke needs to be even more committed to making the defense work by cutting down on the dribble, increasing the motion and involving the post players. See how the guys react when the D gets tough.

I mentioned last week that the fact that Coach K plays a shorter bench than I'd prefer is something I've come to expect and accept from each year's team. Likewise, I've come to accept that our offense only looks good for the duration of a season if we have a transcendent player-- Johnny D, Grant, JWill, etc. And we don't have that type of player this year, which makes Jumbo's suggestions all the more apt: cut down on the dribble, increase the motion and involve post players. I'd add to that getting to the line.

In a word: dynamism.

[bird]

8) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?

Based on his comments on the most recent edition Inside Basketball, K's focus is here:

He said the biggest question is whether Duke can continue to improve its "offensive continuity," particularly the continued "progression of our big guys and then how our perimeters are able to interact with them."

His comments indicated that he is satisfied with the general competitiveness of the team and pleased with the defensive effort, but he focused on the offensive end as the main focus.

One thing about the boards: rarely do I see K or the staff quoted in debates, although the post-game radio shows, the weekly television shows, and post-game pressers create am pretty extensive record and, IMO, the comments as a whole are pretty frank and straightforward. I think while K and staff may soften comments about particular players from time to time, the program does indeed value honesty and a lot can be learned from just listening to what they say.

[WiJoe]

Nicely done, Jumbo. For a blowhard, albeit kindler, gentler, this is swell stuff.

[Wander]

I still think the free throw thing is by far Duke's biggest weakness after the depth issue. Getting to the line 13 times against Long Beach State at home doesn't cut it for a team with Final Four hopes. Even Gonzaga, who we beat by something like infinity points, shot more free throws than us. Our offense is incredibly efficient overall but this is an area that really needs to improve.

[Duvall]

4) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
Duke's shooting .433 from beyond the arc, which is absurdly productive. (Harder to tell what's more impressive, in fact, that number or the .295 mark Duke has allowed opponents to shot). It's hard to imagine keeping up that hot a pace in conference play, especially because it's basically coming only from a quartet of players. Plus, against the five tougher opponents (ASU, UConn, Wisconsin, St. John's, Gonzaga), Duke hit just .318 from deep. That's a huge difference. The question becomes how far will Duke fall off in ACC play, and how will the team compensate?

Hm. Four of those games were away from Cameron, and three took place at MSG. How much of that difference is a good opponent/bad opponent split, and how much is a home/road split?

[jv001]

Jumbo must be a coach. The point of getting Kyle involved inside is something I've hoped for. It was his playing defense against the #4 or #5 guys that tired him out as a freshman. Kyle has some great inside moves and I hope we utilize those moves. Another thing that I want to see is the continued improvement of our young guys. That won't be as easy with conference play beginning, but it can come in baby steps. Just no regression. As for pressuring the ball to create turnovers, Jumbo make a good observation in that the conference does not have the elite ball handlers it had last year. I would not be surprised to see Coach K put some pressure on Clemson tomorrow night. Pressing teams don't like to be pressed. Tomorrow night will give us an idea of how good we are as begin a tough Phase of the season. Go Duke!

[greybeard]

Kyle does not need to be posting up, just getting catches in the 14-17 foot range.

Think Rip Hamilton here sports fans. From that distance, Kyle is much more of a threat making it all the way to the rim before help can stop him. Much easier to develop the stop and pop game from that distance too, the key to which is the catch and bringing it up to shooting in different ways in time with getting your weight ready to move into the shot. Working on that from outside the three line requires interim tempo changing skills that just complicate matters now.

I said during phase I that this was the biggest challenge this team faces and I am glad the experts are catching up. Look for Kyle to start looping past a big posted on one side and scootching up the lane past another for a catch off a curl real soon.

[chrisheery]

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
I sort of touched on it in the last phase, but it's of much greater concern now. Kyle is not playing badly by any means. In fact, a few comparisons were made to G's slow start last year, but Kyle has been much better in the pre-conference season that G was a year ago. It's just that he hasn't quite matched expectations, which isn't such a big deal.

What is a bigger deal, though, is finding the best way to use his skills. Announcers have touched on this, but in Duke's system, Singler is a better fit for the 4 -- he has the size to rebound and defend college 4s, but the perimeter skills to abuse them offensively. By playing him at the 3, he's losing a lot of that advantage off the bounce and behind the arc. So what should Duke do? Run plays for him in the post. Invert the offense. I've been preaching this since before the season started -- Duke has a real size advantage at a number of positions and should take advantage of it. In fact, I've even suggested posting Scheyer here and there. But Kyle has legit post moves, a great feel around the hoop, etc. Maybe Duke hasn't been doing much of this in order to a) save a different look for conference season and b) focus on improving other aspects of the offense. But last year we ran sets for G in the post, and Kyle is significantly better on the block. Plus, this could go a long way toward solving Duke's problem of not getting to the FT line as often as we'd like.

So, be on the lookout for where Kyle catches the ball. I'd like him to receive it on the block or the elbow here and there, and even involve him in some 1/3 or 2/3 pick-and-roll plays, where he's the screener with the ability to slip the screen, roll, pop, or drag a smaller man to the block for an iso play. This is one area where the coaching staff simply must be more innovative against better defensive teams -- Duke has to take advantage of what will almost always be a major matchup advantage.

2) How will Duke's bigs handle similarly sized teams and true low-post scorers?
We got a good look at size against UConn, and handled it well. But we'll see big teams far more often during ACC play. And the one thing UConn didn't have was a back-to-the-basket scorer. Well, tomorrow we'll get a healthy dose of old friend Trevor Booker. You know the other names -- Favors, Lawal, Aminu, even Trapani, plus Brackins and Monroe out of conference -- and that's just this phase, before we get a look at UNC.

Duke has shown, in limited opportunities, that it can rebound and provide good help defense against teams with some size (Gonzaga too). But what will our deep frontcourt look like when they're forced to guard guys who are big and skilled with the ball? Will we end up in a lot of foul trouble? Will we double with two bigs Should be interesting to watch.

I grouped these two issues because they appear to be intermingled to me. I don't know if there is a good way to "invert the offense" and maintain our size advantage. One of the great things about this team to this point has been our ability to block shots and finish defensive possesions with rebounding. However, to get Kyle into the post, one of our big men (Lance, Miles, Mason, or Zoub) will have to vacate the low block and position themselves on the wing. To prevent Kyle from being double teamed every time he catches the ball in the post, one of those guys will have to be willing to shoot at least a mid-range jumper. To this point in the season, only Lance has shown that he will shoot that shot (and hit it, which he has done well this year). Essentially, that gives us the same kind of lineup we had last year with one true big guy, Lance, who clearly prefers guarding more perimeter oriented guys, Singler, Scheyer and Smith. Alternatively, you can play Kyle at 4 on offenseand have another shooter on the floor, but then Kyle is stuck guarding a 4 on defense as well.

So, I agree in theory with the idea that Kyle should catch in the post more, but I just don't know how we can do that reality. It makes our team too easy to guard. Instead, I think he should catch the ball off slip screens, coming off screens in mid-range, be the screener in screen-rolls, and on the baseline. I think getting him the ball in these areas allows him to use his skills more readily. As as screener in the screen-roll, no one will leave him alone, but mis-matches will be created and switches as well. He can shoot, pass, or drive depending on the mis-match. The switches may lead to more open shots for the big guys as well as Kyle as shown many times he is an excellent interior passer. (I am aware Jumbo already pointed out the screen-roll senario, just echoing an excellent point)

[Wander]

Hm. Four of those games were away from Cameron, and three took place at MSG. How much of that difference is a good opponent/bad opponent split, and how much is a home/road split?

On that note, Duke is currently 0-1 in road games. Something else to watch...

[Dukeface88]

I grouped these two issues because they appear to be intermingled to me. I don't know if there is a good way to "invert the offense" and maintain our size advantage. One of the great things about this team to this point has been our ability to block shots and finish defensive possesions with rebounding. However, to get Kyle into the post, one of our big men (Lance, Miles, Mason, or Zoub) will have to vacate the low block and position themselves on the wing. To prevent Kyle from being double teamed every time he catches the ball in the post, one of those guys will have to be willing to shoot at least a mid-range jumper. To this point in the season, only Lance has shown that he will shoot that shot (and hit it, which he has done well this year). Essentially, that gives us the same kind of lineup we had last year with one true big guy, Lance, who clearly prefers guarding more perimeter oriented guys, Singler, Scheyer and Smith. Alternatively, you can play Kyle at 4 on offenseand have another shooter on the floor, but then Kyle is stuck guarding a 4 on defense as well.

Kelly could play the inside-out eventually. He's got the shooting skills to be a perimeter threat and the height (if not yet the strength) to guard opposing 4s. He isn't quite ready yet, but he could be by the end of the season.

[chrisheery]

Agreed, I think Ryan Kelly, when he is deemed ready to play full time, will be the ideal person to make that senario work. Problem is, if it isn't this year, this senario may not be available next year (if Singler goes pro). I am still expecting Singler to come on strong and be gone after this year. That way I can have a nice surprise if he doesn't.

[COYS]

Agreed, I think Ryan Kelly, when he is deemed ready to play full time, will be the ideal person to make that senario work. Problem is, if it isn't this year, this senario may not be available next year (if Singler goes pro). I am still expecting Singler to come on strong and be gone after this year. That way I can have a nice surprise if he doesn't.

I think this undervalues Masons skills from the high post, a little. Even if our 5 can't shoot from outside the lane (zoubs, Miles), if the 4 is Mason or Kelly, they can hang out around the elbow. If singled is double teamed hecan dump the ball off to the five on the opposite block, hit Mason cutting down the lane from the elbow, or kick to one of our guards for a three pointer, depending on wherethe double team comes from. The defense will have go choose to leave someone in order to double team Kyle. Ryan and Lance can both hit the 15 footer. Miles and Zoubs can finish from the opposite block. Mason may be the most deadly in that he can flash down the lane for a jam or a pass and if the defense recovers he can dump the ball to either block or his one of our guards for spot up three. Unless zoubs and Miles are in the game at the same time (which has rarely been the case) I think the spacing will be fine.

[chrisheery]

I think this undervalues Masons skills from the high post, a little. Even if our 5 can't shoot from outside the lane (zoubs, Miles), if the 4 is Mason or Kelly, they can hang out around the elbow. If singled is double teamed hecan dump the ball off to the five on the opposite block, hit Mason cutting down the lane from the elbow, or kick to one of our guards for a three pointer, depending on wherethe double team comes from. The defense will have go choose to leave someone in order to double team Kyle. Ryan and Lance can both hit the 15 footer. Miles and Zoubs can finish from the opposite block. Mason may be the most deadly in that he can flash down the lane for a jam or a pass and if the defense recovers he can dump the ball to either block or his one of our guards for spot up three. Unless zoubs and Miles are in the game at the same time (which has rarely been the case) I think the spacing will be fine.

Rather obviously, I don't agree. You are talking about a lot of meat (size of men) in that small painted area or just outside of it. If Singler is on the block and another big is on the opposite block, catcing at the elbow will be pretty crowded, as would a dive down the lane. I think that person has to be a three point threat and keep the floor spread to the three point line, and could cut from there. But, if he is not a three point threat, his man can sag into the top of the lane and interfere with all of Singler's potential options (scoring, passing to opposite block, skip pass).

I don't want to devalue what Mason can do. I think he will be able to shoot jumpers out past the free throw line, I jus said he hasn't done it yet. Which to me, indicates either 1. he doesn't have confidence in that shot, 2. the coaches don't have confidence in his shot, 3. both 1 and 2. I hope he starts shooting it. For that matter, I hope Miles does too. He has fine form and could make shots out to 12 feet easily. And, as I have said, just the threat of them hitting that shot signficiantly expands their potential offensive games.

[Saratoga2]

[QUOTE=Jumbo; with the exception of the first one).

[B]1) Can Duke stay healthy?[/B]
With only 3 effective guards, it is clear that this is #1.

2) Can Duke utilize Kyle Singler more creatively?
Wha5t hasn't worked for Kyle is driving into the basket and forcing a shot. His outside shooting has also been spotty. He did very well inside rebounding and putting the ball back up last year, so running him off a screen to get him inside against a smaller player sounds like it might expand his arsenal of scoring methods. The rest of his game appears solid.


2) How will Duke's bigs handle similarly sized teams and true low-post scorers?
We will get to see against Clemson. We have a size advantage but lack experience except for Zoubek. The thing we may see today is our bigs scoring against theirs and possibly getting them into foul trouble. It will be interesting. Another point is this year Zoubek appears to be far more aggressive going for the ball. Maybe his health and perhaps the realization that he needed to add aggressiveness to his game has improved his game.


3) Can Andre Dawkins make strides defensively?
Andre is a freshman who has gone through a personal tragedy. He has the offensive game developing well but defense is something to be learned over time.

4) How big of a mirage is the early 3-point shooting?
We will see larger and more agile defenders on the perimeter against the ACC. We will also be pressed more and probably more fatigued in some games. Will we overcome that and maintain a high level of perimeter shooting? Possibly Singler will improve but it will be more difficult on Scheyer and Smith. Dawkins is likely to maintain his touch, so we should be pretty solid in the perimeter shooting department.

5) Is Scheyer too good to be true?
Jon is such a smart player, like a coach on the floor. In my view, his turnovers in the last game were due to the big lead and him getting careless trying to make the spectacular passes. He also was on with some less experienced players who should have caught some of the passes. I think Jon will continue to play very well and adapt his game to the players on the floor with him at any time of the game. His court awareness makes him a very good defender and we have seen that he can score. Unless other teams concentrate their defenses on him he will get his points, and he will distribute to a variety of capable scorers.



6) Will Zoubek dip like last season?
Zoubek is experienced, healthy and something has clicked with him being a lot more aggressive in his pursuit of the ball. He can score a little and can intimidate smaller players inside. Great to have him inside this year.

7) Is Mason Plumlee ready to rise?
Mason clearly is athletic, but he is a freshman and it will take him time to understand when a pass should be made and how to be in a solid defensive position. He has a great upside and we should see improvements game by game. Going against Booker will be a learning experience. Maybe he can force Booker to defend and get some fouls on him. Between and improved Miles and Mason, we have two solid players added to the roster we didnt have last year.

8) Will the offense move the ball -- and move without it -- as well against ACC squads as it has lately? And will the guys look inside more?
Kelly seems to be a guy who is effective getting the ball inside, but he may not get much PT. His defensive may not be adequate at the ACC level. In general, we are a fairly mature team and we have an inside threat in Mason Plumlee and Miles can also be effective. If Singler is also used in that way, we could be much better inside. 9) Duke has played a contain D so far. Will we see more pressure?

Our guard position is somewhat limited and I can't see stepping up pressure with them. We do have size this year and should be more of a force inside.In the Clemson game, we should use the zone since their 3 point shooting is poorer than average. Clemson's biggest threat is with Booker. A zone can somewhat neutralize him.


Kelly is kind of an x-factor for the team. He has size and court awareness and could well represent a scoring threat as well as show ability feeding the post. The coaches have to learn how to best use his talents in conjunction with the rest of the team.QUOTE]

[greybeard]

Kelly's game begins off the mid-range catch, which is why he has been less effective point wise than one might expect. Once he establishes offensive control over the defense from that mid-range-catch position, he is comfortable with an occasional catch and shoot from 3.

So, those who suggest that Kelly posting can invert with Kyle posting are dreaming. Kelly is not yet comfortable with catching behind the line on a regular basis and playing off the bounce from there, which is the same hurdle that Kyle faces. Both have the component parts but not the experience to play that game at high end.

Besides, as I posted months ago, I think that one of K's main goals for this year is to see Kyle through the transition into a real 3. The inversion game will not further that. So, not only don't I see Duke as having the personnel to flip Kyle into a post-up position on anything other than an ad hoc basis, but I also do I think that that is what K wants for Kyle at this point.

If you don't want to think Rip, think Deng here. There is a wonderful part of the 3-position game which begins with a 3 catching it from a spot where one dribble gets you to the basket or a pull up position where a head fake and step through work.

K seems intent on hanging with three on the outside of the 3 line. When one of them is Kyle, he often will be less potent in the half court than one might wish. On the other hand, he is a brilliant player and who can say how long it will take for him to develop the ability to interject the catch and glide into the interior of the defense, and play from there while maintaining his dribble and then making an attack decision. It has always seemed to me that that is an essential part of the game from the 3 position when initiated from behind the 3 line that Kyle would have the least experience with and therefore be at a disadvantage even when playing against lesser players who were experienced 3s. Developing that seems key to playing the 3 at this and the next level, and perhaps it is worth the investment however long it takes.

Given who Kyle is, the growth curve at that position might be much shorter than one (that would be me) would expect. I certainly hope so. In the meantime, I hope that K finds ways to get him catches inside the 3; off those kind of catches, I'd have to think that he's everything Bobby Knight said he was.

[Jumbo]

Kyle does not need to be posting up, just getting catches in the 14-17 foot range.

Think Rip Hamilton here sports fans. From that distance, Kyle is much more of a threat making it all the way to the rim before help can stop him. Much easier to develop the stop and pop game from that distance too, the key to which is the catch and bringing it up to shooting in different ways in time with getting your weight ready to move into the shot. Working on that from outside the three line requires interim tempo changing skills that just complicate matters now.

I said during phase I that this was the biggest challenge this team faces and I am glad the experts are catching up. Look for Kyle to start looping past a big posted on one side and scootching up the lane past another for a catch off a curl real soon.

I'm with you on getting Kyle to catch the ball on the move, but he is not a Rip Hamilton, catch-and-shoot, type of player. It's a real skill to be able to shoot off curls like that, and Kyle's not at that point. He's also effective creating off the bounce. That said, I tend to think most players are more effective when catching while moving, so that's always good.

Disagree about not needing to post him, though. I'm not talking about doing that on a regular basis, but when you have a guy with size, skill, good footwork and a nice touch around the rim, you need to use that advantage, especially when you're having trouble getting to the FT line consistently.

[chrisheery]

I don't think any of us were saying that Ryan should play now to run this inverted offense. What I said, and I think some others said as well, was that Ryan has the right skill set to be the guy in that role when his game develops. Maybe I wasn't clear on that point, but that is how I feel, so I agree with your point in the present for Ryan and Kyle.

Jumbo, I agree it would be nice for him to post, I am just not sure how easy it will be to either get him the ball or for him to operate whenhe gets it because of what we are discussing. I also agree that Singler cannot do what Rip Hamilton does. In fact, there are very very few people in the world who can.

[Jumbo]

I grouped these two issues because they appear to be intermingled to me. I don't know if there is a good way to "invert the offense" and maintain our size advantage. One of the great things about this team to this point has been our ability to block shots and finish defensive possesions with rebounding. However, to get Kyle into the post, one of our big men (Lance, Miles, Mason, or Zoub) will have to vacate the low block and position themselves on the wing. To prevent Kyle from being double teamed every time he catches the ball in the post, one of those guys will have to be willing to shoot at least a mid-range jumper. To this point in the season, only Lance has shown that he will shoot that shot (and hit it, which he has done well this year). Essentially, that gives us the same kind of lineup we had last year with one true big guy, Lance, who clearly prefers guarding more perimeter oriented guys, Singler, Scheyer and Smith. Alternatively, you can play Kyle at 4 on offenseand have another shooter on the floor, but then Kyle is stuck guarding a 4 on defense as well.

So, I agree in theory with the idea that Kyle should catch in the post more, but I just don't know how we can do that reality. It makes our team too easy to guard. Instead, I think he should catch the ball off slip screens, coming off screens in mid-range, be the screener in screen-rolls, and on the baseline. I think getting him the ball in these areas allows him to use his skills more readily. As as screener in the screen-roll, no one will leave him alone, but mis-matches will be created and switches as well. He can shoot, pass, or drive depending on the mis-match. The switches may lead to more open shots for the big guys as well as Kyle as shown many times he is an excellent interior passer. (I am aware Jumbo already pointed out the screen-roll senario, just echoing an excellent point)

I don't agree that it's probematic to post Kyle when he's playing the 3. We've done it in the past with 3s (including G last year) and even with 2s (think Thomas Hill). Granted, as you mentioned, all of those teams had multiple perimeter shooters to make defense pay against double teams. But here's the thing: That doesn't mean the strategy won't work without those shooters. Why?

1) You're assuming teams will double Kyle in the post. But this won't be happening on a regular basis, so it's not like teams will come in with a play for how to double Kyle the way you might attack, say, Trevor Booker. There won't be a sectin of the game plan that says "we're going to double big to big, or from the weak side wing, etc." against him. This would be happening infrequently, and Kyle would have to prove that he merits a double-team anyway.

2) If a team decides to double Kyle, that's a good thing. Even if Kyle is forced to kick it out to a wide-open big man who can't shoot from deep, that's still good. Why? It's forcing the defense to move, to do things it doesn't want to do. No one enters a game hoping to have to double players. Good things can result from that sequence. Depending on where they are spotted up, Lance, Mason and Ryan can all knock down an open jumper. But, as you've also mentioned, a player can cut or dive to the hoop. Even if that doesn't result in a pass for a layup, even if that clogs the middle, it might draw a perimeter defender to help for a split-second -- just long enough for Scheyer or Smith to get open. Or maybe Kyle passes out of the double, rubs off a screen on the opposite block and is open in the corner after some confusion. Basketball isn't a linear game, where one action necessarily leads to one expected outcome. Anytime you move the D and force adjustments, you've done something good on offense.