How Will Duke Be Better Next Year?

[NYC Duke Fan]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?

[Matches]

It really comes down to whether Singler and Smith stick around. If they do, we have an excellent shot of being very very good in 2011.

[Duvall]

Any thoughts?

I'm thinking this is a pretty useless topic for discussion on February 10.

[RoyalBlue08]

I'm thinking this is a pretty useless topic for discussion on February 10.

I agree. I think it is time for UNC to talk about next year and for us to get excited for some March Madness.

[Classof06]

I think the idea that UNC will suddenly become dramatically better next year is a joke. They lose Thompson and Ginyard, and will most likely lose Ed Davis as well.

UNC might not be at the bottom of the ACC next year, but to assume they'll be back to contending for Final 4s is wrong. The only thing that might save UNC next year is if Harrison Barnes is just all-world. Even if that is the case, this team will still have sizable flaws.

[jimsumner]

" I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke."

Elliott Williams started down the stretch last season. Kyle Singler was ACC Rookie of the Year in 2008 and Smith and King contributed off the bench. Scheyer scored in double figures in '07 and the other three freshmen played. Greg Paulus led the ACC in assists in '06 and McRoberts also started.

So, I'm confused as to which "past few years" you are referring.

And yes, the freshmen-never-play-at-Duke myth is one of my pet peeves. And it is a myth.

[dukelifer]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?

Well your assumption is that the "experts" know what they are saying. The "experts" picked UNC to be #4 in the country pre-season because they thought they had a strong core of players who played significant minutes last year and an excellent recruiting class with multiple McDonald All Americans. The point is we do not know- nor do the experts how teams will gel and how well Frosh will adjust. We do know that Duke will be different next year- and the new players bring some different skill sets. It is K's job to make that all work as a team.

[MChambers]

Elliott Williams started down the stretch last season. Kyle Singler was ACC Rookie of the Year in 2008 and Smith and King contributed off the bench. Scheyer scored in double figures in '07 and the other three freshmen played. Greg Paulus led the ACC in assists in '06 and McRoberts also started.

So, I'm confused as to which "past few years" you are referring.

And yes, the freshmen-never-play-at-Duke myth is one of my pet peeves. And it is a myth.

And go back further and tell me about Brand, Battier, Williams, and so on. It is a total myth.

[CDu]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?

It's impossible to say with any certainty whether we'll be better or worse next year. The only thing we can say is that we'll be a different team next year.

Some ways in which we could be better next year:
1. better/more consistent post play from the Plumlees
2. (an extension of #1) one or more of our bigs become stars inside
3. further improvement from Singler and Smith
4. more perimeter threats with Curry, Dawkins (in a bigger role), and Irving
5. one of the freshmen (or Curry) becomes surprisingly greats

Some ways in which we could be worse next year:
1. can't replace Scheyer's perimeter offense
2. can't replace the leadership of Scheyer and Thomas
3. we lose one or both of Singler and Smith and can't replace them
4. unexpected injuries or other loss of players

At this point, it's impossible to say how next year will turn out, because there are so many variables about which we just don't have any idea yet.

[MChambers]

It's impossible to say with any certainty whether we'll be better or worse next year. The only thing we can say is that we'll be a different team next year.

Some ways in which we could be better next year:
1. better/more consistent post play from the Plumlees
2. (an extension of #1) one or more of our bigs become stars inside
3. further improvement from Singler and Smith
4. more perimeter threats with Curry, Dawkins (in a bigger role), and Irving
5. one of the freshmen (or Curry) becomes surprisingly greats

Some ways in which we could be worse next year:
1. can't replace Scheyer's perimeter offense
2. can't replace the leadership of Scheyer and Thomas
3. we lose one or both of Singler and Smith and can't replace them
4. unexpected injuries or other loss of players

At this point, it's impossible to say how next year will turn out, because there are so many variables about which we just don't have any idea yet.

I'd add more extended pressure defense, as we likely will be a lot deeper on the perimeter.

[DUKIECB]

I'm thinking this is a pretty useless topic for discussion on February 10.

I'm all for supporting this years team with unrivaled enthusiasm but this notion that we are not even allowed to discuss next year is in my opinion stupid. The forum is for Duke basketball, it doesn't say Duke basketball 2009-2010 season.

Obviously there are many variables that no one has any of the answers to. Do Singler or Smith leave early, what will Kyrie's impact as a freshman be and how will returning players improve from this year to next?

I think if we can catch a break or two (Singler and Smith stay, Irving has a decent impact and other players show moderate improvement) we have the chance to be really good.

If no one leaves early the roster would be:

Senior

Kyle Singler
Nolan Smith

Junior

Miles Plumlee

Sophomore

Mason Plumlee
Andre Dawkins
Ryan Kelly
Seth Curry

Freshman

Kyrie Irving
Joshua Hairston
Tyler Thornton

I like the fact that we will be a very balanced team with the capability to score from every position. This is something we have lacked over the last few years. With the more experienced Plumlees down low, the plethora of 2/3 players and a super athletic point guard who can penetrate and score or dish to those wings, it could be the most balanced Duke team since 2001. Will they be as good as that team? I doubt it but they could be close.

To answer the original posters' question, I think next years team could be good enough to win a championship and possibly one of the favorites to do so.

[DeBlueDevil]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?

I agree how good we will be next year does depend largely on Singler and Smith sticking around (which I believe they will). I do agree that Irving may not be as good as Scheyer next year however I do think we will be a little better with him at the point. Now before everyone jumps on me and says I'm crazy just hear me out. If you take a look at this team this year and even the game last night. Could you imagine how much better we would be and even how much easier it would have been to win that game last night if we would have had someone like Kyrie to drive the lane and create much easier shots for Nolan, Kyle, and even some set up dunks for Mason? Not that we don't get shots now but I just believe that this is what Kyrie and Ty Thornton will bring to the table.

They won't be anywhere near as experienced and heady as Jon (which not many in the country are) but they will be able to drive past defenders and kick to an open, Seth, Nolan, Andre, Kyle, and Kelly and set up alley-opp dunks for the Plumlees and Hairston. With good D and consistent offense...next years team will be considerably better...but as you said before that largely depends on having Nolan and Kyle.

As for the heels...I agree with a previous post that once they lose Thompson and Ginyard and perhaps Ed Davis (who I think is more likely to leave then Singler) they will have big shoes to fill. I think the Plumlees are definitely better than the Wear twins and Zeller just hasn't proven to me he is going to be as good as they say he will be (a somewhat next Psycho T)...i just don't see it. Barnes may be pretty good as well as the other recruits but I like our lineup against theirs all day especially with the experience of Nolan and Kyle of they return.

[Kedsy]

Yes, it is always good to beat UNC and yes, Duke is in first place in the ACC, and yes, Duke might get a #1 Seed, ( probably not ), but Dick Vitale kept saying last night how UNC will be so much better next year with the addition of Barnes and the other recruits.

So my buddy, a Duke graduate and I were talking how can Duke be better next year. Singler is the key. If he stays than yes they can be with him Smith , Plumlee, ( Mason ) and Kelly improving and with the addition of Seth Curry.

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

However, if Singler leaves than I do not think, only my opinion, that Duke will be better next year.

Any thoughts?

First of all, I agree that we should be focusing on this year not next. However, I also believe it's not an outrageous thing to do both simultaneously.

Regarding UNC, I suppose it's possible that Barnes goes Carmelo on us, but I doubt it. They'll be better than this year but I'll be very surprised if they're a top 5 (or even top 10) team by the end of the year. The key will be how quickly their freshmen can contribute and how much improvement do they get from Strickland and Henson. No matter how you slice it, they'll be an incredibly young team.

When it comes to Duke, I would warn against linear thinking. Just because a large part of our personnel is the same it doesn't mean the team is the same. Take this year compared to last year, for example. After 2009, we lost our supposed best player (G) as well as our most athletic defender (Elliot), our most versatile defender (Dave McClure), and our senior leader (Greg). We replaced them with three freshmen who don't play all that much. But we appear to be a much better team -- how is that possible? First of all, at the college level players improved dramatically from year to year. With the possible exception of Kyle, is there even one player on the team who could be called the same player as last year? I'd say no, and IMO this phenomenon will repeat next year for all our returning players.

The second reason is the mixture of personnel and style of play. This year with Lance, Miles, and Z improved enough to be big contributors along with Mason and Ryan adding their skills to the mix, we are a MUCH bigger and better rebounding team than we were last year. We're playing a different offense and a different defense than last year, and since both the offensive and defensive schemes are designed around the team's strengths, it minimizes the losses of players like G and Elliot who might not have fit so well into this year's style of play.

Next year, Kyrie may not be "better" than Jon, but he's a completely different type of player. Adding Seth doesn't just add another shooter but adds another type of player we don't have on this year's roster. Next year, with Kyrie leading the show, we'll be a very fast, up-and-down team. The Plumlees will be scoring all sorts of fast break dunks that they don't have too much of an opportunity to cash in on this year. Kyrie and Nolan will slash up opposing defenses, leaving Seth and Andre wide open for myriad threes; Ryan will (hopefully) be strong enough to play inside and difficult for a big guy to guard on the perimeter. We will be one of the top 5 offenses in the country, and that's without even considering whether Kyle returns or whether Josh and Tyler (and/or whoever else we get, like Carrick Felix) can contribute a whole lot. It'll just be a whole different team, at least on offense. And it'll be different on defense, too. Assuming Mason and Miles don't commit so many stupid fouls, and Ryan gets strong enough to defend inside, between them and Josh H we should have good, athletic interior defense with multiple shot-blocking presences. Our perimeter defense, between Kyrie, Seth, Nolan, and a presumably improved Andre will be the quickest we've seen in Durham at least since 2004 and probably since 2002. Again this is not even including Kyle or Tyler or a possible athletic wing like Felix, and again it will be a completely different look and feel than this year's defense.

We will have a very different team next year, despite the similarities in personnel. We will have a very good team. Now, back to this year.

Finally, it's "Thornton," not "Thorton." IIRC, this is not the first time you've made that particular typo.

[devilboomer]

Hard to say whether Irving will be an upgrade/downgrade from Scheyer.

Scheyer is remarkably consistent, a great leader, and makes few mistakes. To be blunt, without him Duke basketball would have been a much darker chapter over the last few years. He's a stud. But when we play very athletic and physical teams, Scheyer often bears a large part of the blame for a loss. Puts up silly shots, flails around in the paint anticipating fouls, gets trapped too easily, etc...

Irving as a freshman will be inconsistent and undoubtedly make mistakes (every freshman does, even Jay Williams, Battier, Singler, etc...). But what we do get is an athletic playmaker who will shine when challenged by more physical and athletic teams. We might have more losses overall with Irving, but I'd wager that we'll get further in the tournament.

Either way, I would take Scheyer or Irving in a heartbeat. I'm just sad that they won't get to play together.

Next year's Duke >> this year's Duke.

Kyrie
Smith
Singler
Plumlee
Plumlee

It's going to be awesome.

[Baxter the Lab]

I know that Irving is going to be a top PG but he will not be better than Scheyer at least not next year. I do not know much about Hairston and Thorton , but in the past few years freashmen have not had that much of an impact for Duke.

Irving might not match Scheyer's stats, but he will make everyone around him that much better. Jon has not necessarily excelled at creating easy buckets for others. Kyrie is going to do just that.

Hairston is going to be better than anyone realizes.

Regardless of Singler's decision, next year's team will absolutely be better than this year's.

[loldevilz]

I really doubt that Miles Plumlee will start next season. K seems to think that Ryan Kelly will be a great player so I expect him in the line up.

Irving is supposed to be the next Jay Williams and I expect his development will determine how good next years team is.

Singler and Smith have to stay.

I think Curry will be a big factor. Many say that he is the best player in practice.

I expect the starters to be
Irving
Smith
Singler
Kelly
Ma. Plumlee

[OldSchool]

Kedsy, good analysis of next year's team.

They could be outstanding offensively.

A big variable will be how much work Andre and Ryan do in the off-season to get stronger and become better defenders.

If Andre can get strong enough and savvy enough to play good defense against the ACC's small forwards, then a three-guard offense led by Kyrie at point, Nolan at the two and Andre at the three with Seth getting starter's equivalent minutes could be amazing.

I don't think one can compare Jon and Kyrie. Jon imposes his will on the game by setting the pace and diligently working the offense to find a crack in the defense or exploit a mistake by the defense here and there. Kyrie I expect will be more explosive and we will probably run a lot more. With Kyrie, Nolan, Andre, Kyle and Mason on the floor, we will go back to the strong over-play defensively and look to get lots of run-outs in transition. Could be one of Duke's highest scoring offenses.

Can Kyrie play D? Anyone know?

[oldnavy]

It's impossible to say with any certainty whether we'll be better or worse next year. The only thing we can say is that we'll be a different team next year.

Some ways in which we could be better next year:
1. better/more consistent post play from the Plumlees
2. (an extension of #1) one or more of our bigs become stars inside
3. further improvement from Singler and Smith
4. more perimeter threats with Curry, Dawkins (in a bigger role), and Irving
5. one of the freshmen (or Curry) becomes surprisingly greats

Some ways in which we could be worse next year:
1. can't replace Scheyer's perimeter offense
2. can't replace the leadership of Scheyer and Thomas
3. we lose one or both of Singler and Smith and can't replace them
4. unexpected injuries or other loss of players

At this point, it's impossible to say how next year will turn out, because there are so many variables about which we just don't have any idea yet.

Of course you are correct. No way to predict the future, BUT I would expect that we are going to be really good next year with the addition of Curry, Irving, Hairston and Thorton to an already very good returning nucleus. Replacing the seniors will be hard, especially Scheyer, but the pieces will be there.

[Olympic Fan]

You guys have done a good job detailing why/how Duke will be better next year. I agree -- provided Singler returns for his senior year. You just don't realize the impact Irving -- an elite level point guard -- is going to have.

But nobody's looked at the other side of the equation -- how much better will UNC really be?

They're adding a GREAT pair of wings in Barnes and Bullock. With Graves back and Strickland and McDonald a year older, they'll be strong at a position they are weak this season.

They won't have the kind of jet point guard that Roy's best teams have (like Felton and Lawson or Jacque Vaughn at Kansas). Drew is an okay player who will probably make less mistakes as a junior ... and he'll have more options with Barnes and Bullock on the wing. Not sure Marshall is a real upgrade -- he's a polished, excellent passer, but physically, he's pretty average. They'll be deeper at the point with Drew/Marshall but I think the most improvement will be Drew's added experience.

But the real question mark is up front. Thompson will be gone and so will Davis, who is a lock NBA early entry. There's even a reasonable chance to John Henson will make the jump too (Chad Forde still has him a projected top 15 pick in the NBA draft -- that was as of 10 days ago).

That could leave Tyler Zeller and the Wear brothers as UNC's entire post presence. I think Zeller is a nice player, but no bull in the paint. The Wear brothers are complementary players. Even if Henson returns, they'll be much weaker in the post than this year.

Overall? They're better -- much better on the wing, a little better at point and weaker in the post. Are they good enough to make a quantum leap? That depends on (1) How good Barnes is as a freshman; (2) Whether Henson returns and realizes his potential.

Talked to a national writer last night who is very plugged into the prep recruiting scene. Said he doesn't think much of Marshall (he said if Roy had it to do again, he wouldn't have given Marshall the early offer -- the kid has had a terrible senior year) ... and loves Irving (called him the second coming of Jason Williams). Suggested that Irving has more impact that Barnes next year.

If that happens, Duke is still better than UNC next year -- whether Kyle returns or not.

Carolina should be better ... but then, they should be better this year than they are.

PS It's kind of funny, but last fall when the Barnes recruitment came down to the wire, the perception was that Duke had to get him to reverse UNC's dominance of the series. Now, it's obvious that Barnes is UNC's one hope of regaining parity with Duke in the rivalry!

[Maxwell1977]

Once again NYC Duke Fan has something negative to say about the Duke BB team. It's especially odd when it comes on the day after a major victor. But then he/she almost always posts something negative about Duke BB. Quite a fan!