Here is a synopsis:
There is a charge that convicted felons and would be sports marketeers gave housing and other benefits to Reggie Bush's mother and step father in the expectation that Reggie would be the cornerstone of their new company.
Another charge that same guys gave lesser benefits to Reggie - hotel rooms, airplane trips, money for a used car.
None of those that gave the benefits had any connection to USC. There is no allegation that any of this was to help USC in any way. The "benefit" USC got was using an ineligible player.
Exactly when Pete Carroll was aware of the issue and what he did about it is unclear to me. Bush played 3 full seasons and left.
There is another charge that the USC basketball coach gave money to a representative of OJ Mayo. Mayo denies receiving any benefit. Coach denies making any payment. USC has disciplined itself over basketball. The representative was also a representative of a USC player a few years ago, gave him money, and USC had to sit the player out for a while over that.
On one hand is a football program supposed to monitor the families of their players, families that may live all over the country? How do you keep the vultures away from the families and the players? On the other hand, there are probably a few players whose might be worth big bucks and maybe they need to be watched or at least carefully advised.
My guess is that USC will have to forfeit some past games, Bush may have to give up his Heisman. Penalties related to the future will be minor, maybe a few scholarships or loss of TV or something. The football case does not involve coaches/boosters etc enticing Bush to come to USC.
What is your guess and why?
Anyway, on to the general point. I think USC has a pretty good idea it will be minor or Kiffykins wouldn't have brought in the class that he did (although Seantrell Henderson and at least one other recruit are holding their LOIs until there is more clarity). It will probably end up being forfeited wins, reduction in schollies and probation which would lead to harsher penalties if it happens again in the near future.
I think there is ZERO chance of post-season bans.
It amazes me that Kiffin brought in the class that he did. First of all he has a losing record as head coach. Then you have the possible sanctions.
I agree with you on the general penalty. Will be interesting to see how well USC can police themselves if on probation.