Originally Posted by
CDu
Sort of thread hijacking here, but part of this is illustration of the luck involved in the tournament, and part of it is illustrating how big a couple of recruiting "misses" can be. Look at the talent we had in 2004-2009. A player or two made the difference in most of those seasons.
- 2004: if any of the other bigs (Randolph, Thompson, Boateng, etc) stepped up and became the players they were hyped to be coming out of high school. Maybe we have enough depth inside to hold off UConn and ultimately win the title in 2004.
- 2005: See above. Maybe we have enough size to get to a Final Four in 2005 as well. And if Nelson is healthy, maybe we have enough perimeter offense too.
- 2006: if Paulus had been the Hurley-type PG (or if Dockery had been a better PG) and if Nelson had been healthy. Perhaps we have enough balance to make it past LSU and get to a Final Four. Heck, if we beat LSU, there's a reasonable chance we win the title that year.
- 2007: if Paulus had been the Hurley-type PG and we had one more college-ready big guy to complement McRoberts. Maybe we go to another Sweet-16 or elite-8. Maybe we're even a Final Four team if Paulus is more like Hurley and could get in the lane and create offense for others.
- 2008: if Paulus was more like Hurley and McRoberts had stayed. That team has virtually no holes with Singler complementing McRoberts at the 4/5, Thomas/Zoubek/McClure providing depth, and Nelson, Scheyer, and Henderson providing wing scoring, and Paulus running the show. That's another deep run waiting to happen.
- 2009: with a senior, Hurley-like Paulus creating off the dribble, maybe we compete with Villanova.
I don't want this to come across as Paulus-bashing or big man bashing. That's far from my point, and it's not at all fair to them. I was just highlighting some of the expectations (however unfair) that some of those recruits had. It's just meant to illustrate that the margin of error between being a perennial Final Four team and just a perennial tournament team isn't necessarily all that great. In Duke's case, it can just take a key player or two each year reaching or exceeding expectations.
I think most people are willing to view next year's team as a strong candidate for a Final Four if Curry and/or Irving can step up and the Plumlees, Kelly and Hairston can be big factors at the 4/5. Perhaps if things work out, it starts another great Duke run.