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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Conference Projections

    In an effort to think about something other than that ugly effort by our team last night, I bring you the latest update to Ken Pomeroy's website. His pages for each conference now have projected records included on them. So, on his ACC page today we see the following projected records in our favorite conference--

    Code:
    Team    Proj. Record
    Duke        12-4
    Clemson     10-6
    Ga Tech      9-7
    Fla State    9-7
    Wake         9-7
    Maryland     9-7
    Virginia     8-8
    Va Tech      8-8
    NC State     6-10
    B.C.         5-11
    Miami        5-11
    UNC          5-11
    --Jason "I'd take this-- Duke #1, UNC #12, and 6 ACC teams in the Big Dance" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Calipari Hell
    I still think Duke wins the league, and 12-4 at this point would make my day.

    I have a hard time convincing myself UNC will finish either 5-11 or dead last in the league, much less both. I guess I'll believe it when I see it.

  3. #3
    I would be ecstatic with that outcome for the conference.

    I need to see us play better on the road before I can predict 12-4, though.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    By the way, Ken points out in his blog that his method of predicting can cause there to be an inbalance in the projected records. A little checking shows that the ACC cannot finish the way he projects today because there aer 2 more wins than losses in his projections.

    We will just have to pick a team to take 2 wins away from. Hmmmm, who should we pick?

    --Jason " " Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    The way we're playing on the road, anything better than 8-8 (8-0 at home, 0-8 on the road) is a good thing!

    In all seriousness, though, our team still has the best combination of chemistry, talent, and seniority in the conference right now. We SHOULD win the ACC this year. It's a fairly even conference, and the "doormats" (UVA, NCSU, and BC) have shown that they are anything but easy wins...so 12-4 may be tough for anyone this year. I expect the conference winner to have 10-11 wins, maybe see two or three teams at that level, then a big mess of 9-7 to 7-9 teams, and two or three in the 5-6 win range.

    If we can bring the same focus and execution to our road games that we bring to Cameron, we could end up in the 12 win range. But it's got to start soon...like Saturday.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    My bet is that Maryland blows State out of the gym on Saturday.

    I'd honestly take Clemson's proj record at 10-6 with the way we're playing on the road right now.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by jipops View Post
    My bet is that Maryland blows State out of the gym on Saturday.

    I'd honestly take Clemson's proj record at 10-6 with the way we're playing on the road right now.
    You are dead on about UM and NCSU. UM will smoke them. They haven't played as well as they did last night all year, and I would doubt they put together two such efforts in a row.

    Anyway, I still think Duke will win the ACC, but I think 12-4 might be a bit much. That would have them closing 9-2, and that won't happen in this league. I would guess 11-5 is a little more likely.

  8. #8
    I could be wrong but if Pomeroy's outcome was to occur, there would be the possibility of a Duke-UNC quarterfinal after the play in games. Not something I would look forward to as a Duke fan!!!! Just sayinnnnnnn!!!!

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    I'm pretty sure

    Quote Originally Posted by NYDukie View Post
    I could be wrong but if Pomeroy's outcome was to occur, there would be the possibility of a Duke-UNC quarterfinal after the play in games. Not something I would look forward to as a Duke fan!!!! Just sayinnnnnnn!!!!
    hasn't it happened before, when Doherty was UNC coach? I think that worked out okay.

    Although I love Pomeroy's stats, I do find myself worrying that seemingly every year in the last five or so Duke tends to look great at www.kenpom.com in January, and then start dropping. Notice how far our defensive efficiency dropped yesterday? Down to 18th, which isn't typical for Duke.

  10. #10
    Just poking around kenpom.com...it's interesting that he has Kentucky dropping 4 regular season games.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    hasn't it happened before, when Doherty was UNC coach? I think that worked out okay.

    Although I love Pomeroy's stats, I do find myself worrying that seemingly every year in the last five or so Duke tends to look great at www.kenpom.com in January, and then start dropping. Notice how far our defensive efficiency dropped yesterday? Down to 18th, which isn't typical for Duke.
    You are correct...just seems like a long time ago. It was 2002 and Duke was the #2 and UNC the #7 while Maryland was the #1. The last time there was a Duke-UNC ACC final was in 2001 when Duke won 79-53.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    In an effort to think about something other than that ugly effort by our team last night, I bring you the latest update to Ken Pomeroy's website. His pages for each conference now have projected records included on them. So, on his ACC page today we see the following projected records in our favorite conference--

    Code:
    Team    Proj. Record
    Duke        12-4
    Clemson     10-6
    Ga Tech      9-7
    Fla State    9-7
    Wake         9-7
    Maryland     9-7
    Virginia     8-8
    Va Tech      8-8
    NC State     6-10
    B.C.         5-11
    Miami        5-11
    UNC          5-11
    --Jason "I'd take this-- Duke #1, UNC #12, and 6 ACC teams in the Big Dance" Evans
    I told someone last night after the debacle in Raleigh that Duke will go 11-5 in the ACC this year and even that was generous. I would take 12-4 everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. I figure every road game is going to be a battle now that I have seen us tank at GT and NCSU, and I had NCSU penciled in as one of our less daunting road tests. I think @ Clemson, @ Maryland and @ Wake are questionable games for us at best and we could drop them fairly easily. That puts us at 5 losses in the conference, and @ UVA is no gimme either, especially if the JPJ Arena is sold out and there are 15,000 motivated fans against us. Realistically, I wouldn't be disappointed if we went 10-6, but for some reason my gut has Duke at 11-5 this year with losses @GT, @NCSU, @Clemson, @Virginia, and @Wake. I think we sweep Carolina but no way do they go 5-11. I say UNC goes 8-8, and UVA goes 12-4 to win the ACC. UVA's schedule is the weakest in the ACC and teams simply do not get motivated to play them. Add in Tony Bennett's "put you to sleep" defense and the stellar play of Sylven Landesburg, and the Hoos are regular season ACC Champs. I say they go 12-4 and are back in the Big Dance. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see them losing much. They play too good of defense. God, I hope I'm wrong...

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    I told someone last night after the debacle in Raleigh that Duke will go 11-5 in the ACC this year and even that was generous. I would take 12-4 everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. I figure every road game is going to be a battle now that I have seen us tank at GT and NCSU, and I had NCSU penciled in as one of our less daunting road tests. I think @ Clemson, @ Maryland and @ Wake are questionable games for us at best and we could drop them fairly easily. That puts us at 5 losses in the conference, and @ UVA is no gimme either, especially if the JPJ Arena is sold out and there are 15,000 motivated fans against us. Realistically, I wouldn't be disappointed if we went 10-6, but for some reason my gut has Duke at 11-5 this year with losses @GT, @NCSU, @Clemson, @Virginia, and @Wake. I think we sweep Carolina but no way do they go 5-11. I say UNC goes 8-8, and UVA goes 12-4 to win the ACC. UVA's schedule is the weakest in the ACC and teams simply do not get motivated to play them. Add in Tony Bennett's "put you to sleep" defense and the stellar play of Sylven Landesburg, and the Hoos are regular season ACC Champs. I say they go 12-4 and are back in the Big Dance. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see them losing much. They play too good of defense. God, I hope I'm wrong...

    I guarantee that Duke will not lose at Wake this year. Rock-solid guarantee.

    Also? Clemson WILL NOT lose in Chapel Hill this year. Book it.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    UVA's schedule is the weakest in the ACC and teams simply do not get motivated to play them. Add in Tony Bennett's "put you to sleep" defense and the stellar play of Sylven Landesburg, and the Hoos are regular season ACC Champs. I say they go 12-4 and are back in the Big Dance. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see them losing much. They play too good of defense. God, I hope I'm wrong...
    Actually, in adjusted terms, UVA has played the worst defense of any team in the ACC this year. Even in conference play, their defense has not been stellar - they essentially give up a point per possession (0.985, to be precise) to conference opponents. Their offense, by contrast, has been carrying the team - they're scoring 1.15 points per possession against ACC opponents. They've gotten it done somewhat by shooting well, but mostly by valuing the ball - the Cavs are the most difficult team to turn over thus far in ACC play, and on the season have only had two games where they've given it up more than one-in-five trips (UNC, by contrast, has already had 12 such games).
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    I guarantee that Duke will not lose at Wake this year. Rock-solid guarantee.

    Also? Clemson WILL NOT lose in Chapel Hill this year. Book it.
    Why is it that so many people predict us losing games we won't even play? Is it really that hard to check the schedule?
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    In an effort to think about something other than that ugly effort by our team last night, I bring you the latest update to Ken Pomeroy's website. His pages for each conference now have projected records included on them. So, on his ACC page today we see the following projected records in our favorite conference--

    Code:
    Team    Proj. Record
    Duke        12-4
    Clemson     10-6
    Ga Tech      9-7
    Fla State    9-7
    Wake         9-7
    Maryland     9-7
    Virginia     8-8
    Va Tech      8-8
    NC State     6-10
    B.C.         5-11
    Miami        5-11
    UNC          5-11
    --Jason "I'd take this-- Duke #1, UNC #12, and 6 ACC teams in the Big Dance" Evans
    Looking at our remaining schedule, I think 12-4 is doable (we don't have that many awful road games left. But we do play @Clemson, @Maryland, and @UNC, and we also have potentially tough home game against GT. We can only lose two of those and also have to get past Md, VT, @BC, @UVa, and FSU.

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    Actually, in adjusted terms, UVA has played the worst defense of any team in the ACC this year. Even in conference play, their defense has not been stellar - they essentially give up a point per possession (0.985, to be precise) to conference opponents. Their offense, by contrast, has been carrying the team - they're scoring 1.15 points per possession against ACC opponents. They've gotten it done somewhat by shooting well, but mostly by valuing the ball - the Cavs are the most difficult team to turn over thus far in ACC play, and on the season have only had two games where they've given it up more than one-in-five trips (UNC, by contrast, has already had 12 such games).
    UVA's defense looked a heck of a lot better against GT and NSCU than Duke's did and night and day different than how they played under Dave Leitao, just sayin'. Statiscally speaking, you are right, I agree with those numbers that they statistially have played the worst defense, but man do they play with more desire, motivation, and purpose under Bennett as compared with Leitao. It was actually sad how uninspired they looked at times last season on the defensive end. All things considered, they will win more than 8 games which Pomeroy has predicted. 10 wins EASILY for the Cavs this season.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    the Cavs are the most difficult team to turn over thus far in ACC play, and on the season have only had two games where they've given it up more than one-in-five trips (UNC, by contrast, has already had 12 such games).
    Their bubble will burst in Cville. No way Tony (handsome tho' he most certainly is) can sustain this pace. Just who has really played defense against them yet?

    As the Playcaller pointed out, refs know about player history, and uva is likely a blank slate considering the past, what 10 years or so? Nobody has any traction there.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    I guarantee that Duke will not lose at Wake this year. Rock-solid guarantee.

    Also? Clemson WILL NOT lose in Chapel Hill this year. Book it.
    I'll hold you to your guarantee about our prospects in Winston-Salem. They are going to want revenge down there, especially after the "chippy" play that Mason Plumlee exhibited in Cameron last Sunday night. Lol, and when Clemson beats UNC in Chapel Hill, I will believe it, because if they do, Hades will have a temperature near 32 degrees Farenheit.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    I'll hold you to your guarantee about our prospects in Winston-Salem. They are going to want revenge down there, especially after the "chippy" play that Mason Plumlee exhibited in Cameron last Sunday night. Lol, and when Clemson beats UNC in Chapel Hill, I will believe it, because if they do, Hades will have a temperature near 32 degrees Farenheit.
    I remain confident in my predictions.

    (Neither of those games is on the schedule this year.)

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