Best non-steroid hitters

[JasonEvans]

Ok folks, I am taking nominations. I want guys who played from the mid-90s until the past couple years ("the steroid era") who we feel really confident were NOT on PEDs but who were stud hitters who put up fairly big power numbers. I am talking about guys who are 35 and older. Who do we have?

Chipper Jones
Junior Griffey
Todd Helton
Vlad

I am not up on some guys enough to know if they juiced. Carlos Delgado? Jim Thome seems like he might have been on PEDs. Jim Edmonds had a somewhat suspicious power jump in the early 2000s and has fallen off a cliff the past couple years now that testing is happening.

--Jason "Who else?" Evans

[Duvall]

Ok folks, I am taking nominations. I want guys who played from the mid-90s until the past couple years ("the steroid era") who we feel really confident were NOT on PEDs but who were stud hitters who put up fairly big power numbers. I am talking about guys who are 35 and older. Who do we have?

Chipper Jones
Junior Griffey
Todd Helton
Vlad

I am not up on some guys enough to know if they juiced. Carlos Delgado? Jim Thome seems like he might have been on PEDs. Jim Edmonds had a somewhat suspicious power jump in the early 2000s and has fallen off a cliff the past couple years now that testing is happening.

--Jason "Who else?" Evans

I'll ask again - why do we feel confident about any of these guys?

[InSpades]

Griffey has to be the runaway winner.

Frank Thomas? His numbers don't really look juiced and I don't remember him being implicated (could have just missed it though).

[Kdogg]

I'll ask again - why do we feel confident about any of these guys?

I'm confident about Ken Griffey Jr because there is no way he would have missed so many games had he been taking steriods. Like Grant Hill, injuries robbed him of his peak years.

[SlimSlowSlider]

The Big Hurt (Thomas) definitely should be on that list. He is a HOF'er in my mind. He was clean and, IIRC, volunteered to testify.

I disagree with Jason; I don't think Thome was a juicer. He always had that body type.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

#2, Derek Jetah (/voice of God)

[hurleyfor3]

So Jason, why don't you share the complete list with us of who juiced and who didn't, so we know whom to choose from? Along with your evidence that Griffey's word is more trustworthy than Palmiero's.

A couple of the people that actually got caught in the last couple of years didn't exactly have "steroid-type" stats, either, so I'm wondering what people's expertise here is in distilling this information. (Bill James tried to do this in fact, with something called U Scores, so you're free to quote James. But you'd have to keep Babe Ruth out of the Hall, and uh oh, Griffey scores higher than Palmiero.)

http://www.billjamesonline.net/tours...icles.aspx?x=1

[Olympic Fan]

It probably helps that no one suspects or dreams that he took PEDs so his numbers are "real" in an era where so many numbers appear to have been faked. Heck, of all the guys who were stud hitters from the mid-90s to the early-2000s how many are better hitters than Chipper, put up better numbers, who are not suspected of being involved with PEDs?

I don't have time for it, but someone needs to make up a list of the best hitters over the past decade and a half who were almost certainly not roiding. Chipper might be a good place to start that list.

Okay, let's try to come up with a list -- although the problem is finding guys who almost certainly were not roiding. Every time you think you have it nailed down, a new name crops up.

Still, I think we can separate the definite druggies, the suspected druggies and the probably/almost certainly clean players.

BTW -- I'm going to use OPS-plus to rank hitters. It's not a perfect measure, but it's probably the best single statistical shorthand tool we have.

The top active hitters in OPS-plus are:

1. Pujols 172
2. Rameriz 155
3. (tie)A-Roid and Berkman 147
5. Thome 146
6. Guerrero 145
7. (tie) Chipper and Giambi 143

Of that group, we KNOW that Manny, A-Roid and Giambi used PEDs. We have a very strong suspicion that Vlad did (his personal trainer was the same Angel Presinal who helped A-Roid and Ortiz dope up). I may be naive, but I still think Pujols is clean -- he did NOT show up on the 2006 test list and unlike a couple of other suspected dopers (including Vlad), his production hasn't dropped off since testing began.

So I'd argue that the clean list is:

1. Pujols
2. Berkman
3. Thome
4. Chipper Jones

Okay, of that list -- Pujols has played nine seasons, Berkman 11 seasons, Thome 19 seasons and Chipper 15 seasons. So only Thome has been a better hitter for a longer time than Chipper. Pujols is clearly the greatest hitter in th game today and if he finishes out his career strong, we'll be the greatest CLEAN hitter in modern times.

I checked the all-time OPS list to see if there was someone who recently retired whose career might overlap with the last 15 years and push Chipper farther down the list. I found three guys who finished with a better career OPS-plus who were active during the last 15 years:

1. Barry Bonds 181
2. Mark McGwire 162
3. Frank Thomas 156

Of that group, we KNOW Bonds and McGwire were dirty. We can be pretty sure that Frank Thomas stayed clean.

That would mean that the top CLEAN hitters of the last 15 years have been (subject to revelations about anybody else on this list):

1. Albert Pujols 172
2. Frank Thomas 156
3. Lance Berkman 147
4. Jim Thome 146
5. Chipper Jones 143

As long as we're talking about Chipper (and being both a Yankee and a Brave fan), I can't help but notice the similarities between my two favorite players -- Chipper and Jeter.

Both started their careers as regulars in 1995 (Chipper actually playerd eight games late in the 1993 season, then missed the entire 1994 season with a broken leg). Chipper has played 2166 career games ... Jeter has played 2138 games. Both have played for the most consistent winners in their leagues in the last 15 years -- Chipper has just one world championship ring and three pennants, but he has 13 postseason appearances. Jeter has five rings and seven pennants and 14 post season appearances. Neither has ever been linked to PEDs.

Chipper has been the better hitter: .307 BA .406 OBP 541 SLUG .947 OPS 143 OPS-plus

Jeter's numbers: .317 BA .388 OBP .459 SLUG .847 OPS 121 OPS-plus.

Although Jeter has four gold gloves to Chipper's none, I think the numbers show that Chipper has been a better defensive third baseman than Jeter has been at short. Maybe because he plays in New York and maybe because his teams have won more in postseason, Jeter has a higher national profile ... but I'm not sure he deserves it.

But they are both first-ballot HOFers -- probably among the top 5 ever to play their positions.

Interesting to me that the Braves didn't want to draft Chipper. They had the first pick in the draft that year and wanted to use it on a pitcher named Todd Von Poppel. But Von Poppell didn't want to play for the lowly Braves and warned them that if they drafted him, he would go to college and they'd lose the pick. As a result, the Braves drafted Chipper ... Von Poppel ended up signing with the Oakland A's (then coming off an AL pennant).

The Braves lucked into a HOF third-baseman who anchored what became the greatest era in the franchise's history ... Von Poppel was a mediocre big-league pitcher for a very short time for an A's franchise that went into collapse.

Sweet irony!

[JasonEvans]

So Jason, why don't you share the complete list with us of who juiced and who didn't, so we know whom to choose from? Along with your evidence that Griffey's word is more trustworthy than Palmiero's.

I am sorry if folks feel like I did something wrong in asking about this. I am well aware that we are merely guessing at the guys who cheated and who did not. I think we can make some educated guesses based on how players bulked up (or their heads exploded). We can also look at the previously mentioned propensity for some guys to break down and suffer nagging injuries while others did not. Obviously, there are some guys whose numbers do funky things that make them suspicious too.

That said, I fully agree that we do not know. It would be nice if someone could hook up a lie detector to every ML ballplayer from 1995-2006 and we might get a better idea that way (though lie detectors can be wrong).

Anyway, I just thought it would be an interesting exercise.

--Jason "If it really bothers you, you can always chose to not read this thread" Evans

[BlueDevilBaby]

How about Larry Walker? Don't recall if he has been connected to peds (Wikipedia does not mention it) but he had pretty good HR and power and average numbers for several years.

[Channing]

i am not so confident about JR. Griffey. When he went from the Ms to the Reds he relly really bulked up (iirc).

For my money, its Fred McGriff. He was a premier power guy before the roids era, and really kept it up.

Helton, unfortunately, has the stigma of playing in Colorado.

[duke23]

I am sorry if folks feel like I did something wrong in asking about this. I am well aware that we are merely guessing at the guys who cheated and who did not. I think we can make some educated guesses based on how players bulked up (or their heads exploded). We can also look at the previously mentioned propensity for some guys to break down and suffer nagging injuries while others did not. Obviously, there are some guys whose numbers do funky things that make them suspicious too.

That said, I fully agree that we do not know. It would be nice if someone could hook up a lie detector to every ML ballplayer from 1995-2006 and we might get a better idea that way (though lie detectors can be wrong).

Anyway, I just thought it would be an interesting exercise.

--Jason "If it really bothers you, you can always chose to not read this thread" Evans

Only problem I have with the original question was the phrase "really confident", as I agree with Duvall that we can't be confident about anybody. No reason why we can't guess though, to have a little fun.

To me, I'd look for someone who did not have a sudden and significant peak after the age of 31-32, and whose home runs did not drop precipitously from 2003 - 2006 as testing was implemented (though this could be due to age/injuries of course). If I had to pick 3, I'd probably say Griffey, Thomas, and Delgado (peaked in his late 20's and has remained steady through the late 00's). Helton is tough as his power dropped significantly but the Coors Field humidor effect is also involved. For a couple of less prominent names, I'd go with Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman.

Pure guesswork of course, not to mention the fact that anyone willing to use HGH or any other undetectable drug can still be juicing if they really want to.

Also, as a note, Bill James is measuring "unusual" careers in that link, not "steroid-type" careers. Only 3 of his 10 scores resemble a "steroid-type" stat.

[Duke79UNLV77]

http://www.theonion.com/content/news...craig_counsell

[JMorgan99]

Pujols seems like he should be on the least, although he is the most recent. He started in the steroids era (2001). His HR's by year are as follows:

01 - 37
02 - 34
03 - 43
04 - 46
05 - 41
06 - 49
07 - 32
08 - 37
09 - 47
Total: 366 -- if he stays healthy, a lock for 500 HR club, and probably 600+

Not a huge variation in HR's (a drop in 06/07), but no really huge year's either (51 is huge historically, but not huge in the steroid era)

In addition (and possibly more impressive given that he is known as a power hitter), he's had a .334 BA with 1,717 hits in his 9 yrs.

[Olympic Fan]

I originally posted this on the Hall of Fame thread in response to Jason's original question about where Chipper would rank among clean hitters in the modern era. Allow me to re-post here (with a few additional comments):

Okay, let's try to come up with a list -- although the problem is finding guys who almost certainly were not roiding. Every time you think you have it nailed down, a new name crops up.

Still, I think we can separate the definite druggies, the suspected druggies and the probably/almost certainly clean players.

BTW -- I'm going to use OPS-plus to rank hitters. It's not a perfect measure, but it's probably the best single statistical shorthand tool we have.

The top active hitters in OPS-plus are:

1. Pujols 172
2. Rameriz 155
3. (tie)A-Roid and Berkman 147
5. Thome 146
6. Guerrero 145
7. (tie) Chipper and Giambi 143

Of that group, we KNOW that Manny, A-Roid and Giambi used PEDs. We have a very strong suspicion that Vlad did (his personal trainer was the same Angel Presinal who helped A-Roid and Ortiz dope up). I may be naive, but I still think Pujols is clean -- he did NOT show up on the 2006 test list and unlike a couple of other suspected dopers (including Vlad), his production hasn't dropped off since testing began.

So I'd argue that the clean list is:

1. Pujols
2. Berkman
3. Thome
4. Chipper Jones

Okay, of that list -- Pujols has played nine seasons, Berkman 11 seasons, Thome 19 seasons and Chipper 15 seasons. So only Thome has been a better hitter for a longer time than Chipper. Pujols is clearly the greatest hitter in th game today and if he finishes out his career strong, we'll be the greatest CLEAN hitter in modern times.

I checked the all-time OPS list to see if there was someone who recently retired whose career might overlap with the last 15 years and push Chipper farther down the list. I found three guys who finished with a better career OPS-plus who were active during the last 15 years:

1. Barry Bonds 181
2. Mark McGwire 162
3. Frank Thomas 156

Of that group, we KNOW Bonds and McGwire were dirty. We can be pretty sure that Frank Thomas stayed clean.

That would mean that the top CLEAN hitters of the last 15 years have been (subject to revelations about anybody else on this list):

1. Albert Pujols 172
2. Frank Thomas 156
3. Lance Berkman 147
4. Jim Thome 146
5. Chipper Jones 143

Extra comments:

Okay, the glaring omission from that list is Ken Griffey Jr. The reason he's not on it is that his career OPS-plus of 136 just isn't that high. Of course, that's a fuction of the last 10 years of his career. Between his second season (1990) and 1998, his career OPS was well over 150. He followed that with a seven year stretch where he had two 140-plus OPS years, but his overall OPS was probably in the low 130s. Over the last four years, his OPS has barely been over 100 (which marks an average major league hitter).

Where you want to slot him, based on that, I don't know (but his career decline, rather than a mid-career bump) would tend to support the supposition that he didn't use PEDs.

I see Todd Helton's name mentioned. He's actually third among active players in career OPS, but that's partially a function of Coors Field. His OPS-plus (which negates park effects) is 10th among active players -- just behind Chipper. Larry Walker also benefited from the Coors effect -- his career OPS-plus is 140 (better than Griffey, but worse than Chipper).

I love the Fred McGriff suggestion -- back in the HOF thread I suggested that it was ridiculous that Dawson got voted in while McGriff -- whose numbers are better than Dawson's in every possible way (although Sarge did have more defensive value) got just 21 percent of the vote. But his career OPS plus of 134 isn't quite as good as Griffey's.

I think some of you guys are seriously underrating Frank Thomas. His raw numbers aren't bad -- 521 home runs, .301 BA, 1700-plus RBIs -- and his OPS numbers are off the charts -- .419 OBP, .555 SLUG .974 OPS. His 156 OPS-plus is 19th best alltime (tied with Willie Mays, who was pretty good in his own right).

In the modern era, Pujols is the only clean hitter who's been better. For his overall career value, you have to knock him down a bit for being a career DH -- but he's probably the greatest DH in baseball history.

[duke23]

I think some of you guys are seriously underrating Frank Thomas. His raw numbers aren't bad -- 521 home runs, .301 BA, 1700-plus RBIs -- and his OPS numbers are off the charts -- .419 OBP, .555 SLUG .974 OPS. His 156 OPS-plus is 19th best alltime (tied with Willie Mays, who was pretty good in his own right).

Thomas was absolutely devastating in the mid '90s. Unfortunately, his best seasons were shortened by the strike. He was a legitimate triple crown threat in 1994. His SLG of .729 that year is 21st all-time for a season. Interestingly, Jeff Bagwell slugged .750, and Albert Belle slugged .714, 3 of the top 26 all-time marks. Matt Williams had 43 HR through 112 games and Griffey had 40. Makes you wonder if THAT was the true start to the steroid era, or if it was just one of those years, like 1987.

Of course, while we'd all like to believe he was clean, ya never know.

[SoCalDukeFan]

Lots of K's but lots or home runs and rbis.

SoCal

[Trooper]

Here's as good of an argument I can make that Frank Thomas is the answer.

There's no one with a lower chance that he did steroids than Thomas. He routinely complained to the media about the use of steroids in the game and has lobbied for testing throughout his career. He also offered to testify in congress before anyone else.

His numbers don't remotely resemble someone who juiced -- his HR numbers were never gargantuan or out of line with other years, and he steadily declined with age like most normal people would. Also, the guy was ALWAYS enormous. He played tight end for Auburn (blocked for Bo Jackson), and I can tell you first hand he was about 6'5 260lbs as a rookie.

Lastly, I had the opportunity to go out for drinks with the Big Hurt randomly in 2000 and he was pretty candid about it. I asked him why he was so vocal in favor of testing, and his answer was adamant and honest -- he was really pissed off that his legacy was being diminished while others put up better numbers on roids. He was always super focused on his place in history, and he hated that McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, etc were considered better hitters than he was when none of them really were.

I won't argue he was better than Pujols is now, but I consider them from a different era. I think his numbers definitely outpace any of his contemporaries except for maybe Griffey Jr. He'd be my answer, just because he's the only one I'm 100% sure of. If Griffey was clean too, then he'd be #1 and Thomas #2 in my book.

[A-Tex Devil]

All this talk about Frank Thomas, and people are forgetting about a guy born on the exact same day who had pretty much the exact same numbers until a shoulder injury derailed his career.

Jeff Bagwell.

Although, even as a huge Astros fan, I have my doubts about him. He's never made any list, been in any publication, or anything about being on PEDs. But the way his body type changed and his friendship with Ken Caminiti (best arm at 3B of all time, by the way) leave me with doubts. And that's sad.

[YmoBeThere]

http://www.theonion.com/content/news...craig_counsell

As the Onion points out, we've left out Duke alum Quinton McCracken.