Singler's Season

[Kedsy]

I wouldn't be surprised if Mason is on the radar simply because of his size, athleticism, raw skills, and hype (it doesn't hurt to have media types talking about you as Duke's most talented player). As you know, the NBA drafts on potential rather than performance. And a 6'10"/6'11" guy with decent ballhandling ability, a willingness to bang, and great leaping ability almost has to be on the radar.

I understand he's on the radar. I just thought Chad Ford's list consisted of guys who had more than a zero percent chance of coming out, that's all.

[CDu]

I understand he's on the radar. I just thought Chad Ford's list consisted of guys who had more than a zero percent chance of coming out, that's all.

I doubt Ford really talks to the players (and I'm fairly sure the NBA scouts aren't allowed to talk to the players), so I'd imagine he doesn't have much of an idea on the likelihood of a player entering the draft. I think his lists are just based on what the NBA folks think of the players who could potentially declare. I'd be surprised if he really factors in "likeliness to declare" into his list at this point in the game. Maybe when April/May rolls around he'll take a closer look at that (when players start making statements about their intentions).

[superdave]

I think Chad Ford's sources are mostly scouts and GM's around the league.

This occasionally has bad consequences because he pushed Darko (#2 after LeBron, ahead of Bosh, Wade, Melo) although Ford apparently doesnt ever see guys like Darko play and does not himself have a scouting background.

[dukelion]

Hard to argue anything in the report.

Right now looks like Kyle is a late first to second rounder. They also make a good point about his shooting form and how it's curious why he doesn't shoot a higher percentage.

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/...ers-2410-3388/

[greybeard]

I think that Kyle will benefit greatly in his draft position if he stays and has hurt his chances by pressing to much to score the ball this season.

First, the second point. It is rare to see Kyle catch and get rid of it. Perhaps that is by instruction; in fact, it might well be. I think that by always looking to score first Kyle in fact hurts his offensive effectiveness. Why? The game either has a flow or it doesn't; right now for Kyle, it doesn't. Getting rid of it and creating space, moving around without an intention of creating his next opportunity necessarily, might well be very helpful. Also, it is difficult for a defender to maintain intensity off the ball when he knows that a guy will one touch it to someone else and move.

Now the first second. Kyle will benefit in his offensive game because of the speed interjected into the offense by the incoming point, what's the kid's name, Irving? The kid will break down defenses, get the ball up court with greater tempo, and up the tempo at which Duke plays. I think that that will help Kyle's flow tremendously, cause him to see the ball coming from different and better angles, and be utilizing much more his ability to see the game.

Kyle is playing from a perspective right now that is entirely new to him, and there is a learning curve. I think it's a good thing if K is now committed to getting him catches inside the 3-line, and agree with the poster who said curls off inside screens for a 15-17 footer aka Rip Hamilton couldn't hurt.

Like many players used to playing small against bigs, and that would include Ryan, Kyle is used to building his game in a game from the inside out. Putting pressure on the defense to try to stop him from catching it mid range or even closer, hurting them when he does, and then, when he is in the flow of the game, drifting out for a 3 or 2, and then slipping near the baseline at 15 for a catch and shoot, then at the foul line extended a foot or two, for either a shot or a dribble or at most two to the rim, with enough left to vary his finishes.

The real problem for Kyle I think is a lack of real speed on the exterior, and a failure to create pressure at the rim through pass penetration, something we haven't seen since Shelden's day. Shelden, like the greats before him, Boozer and Brand to be specific, was a great one for getting position, holding it, and being able to finish while a defender tried in vain to get him off balance as he lengthened to score. We have yet to see pass-penetration to guys who have room, or pass penetration for guys to play the pivot and create ball movement by distributing to others.

In short, I do not like how this offense presents, and do not think that even getting Kyle closer looks will make a big enough difference to warrant his leaving early, when the prospects for a much more fluid flow to the offense is just around the corner.

Yes, I have been purposefully having fun with numbers; I write poorly but not this poorly usually. Just trying to keep your minds sharp.

[MChambers]

I've been thinking about Kyle's future, and trying to identify comparable players. One name that keeps popping up is Matt Harpring, who has had a pretty nice NBA career.

So I ran the comparable players tool at www.scacchoops.com and got, from more similar to less:

Brandon Costner 854.00
Chris Williams 846.24
Mike Dunleavy 824.36
KC Rivers 799.00
Gerald Henderson 798.41
Junior Burrough 797.76
Terence Morris 793.79
Julius Hodge 783.00
James Forrest 781.76
Trevor Booker 781.64
Len Bias 778.96
Jeff Allen 777.34
Matt Harpring 767.34
Grant Hill 759.32
Mark Alarie 758.38

Some interesting names on the list, to say the least.

[-bdbd]

I am seriously hoping Kyle stays to enjoy what could be a terrific Senior year (for Duke as well as him), and as the "main man" in our offense.

Duke willl clearly be a top-10 team next year, and assuming we get one of our primary wing targets remaining, should have FF potential.

He does seem to finally be hitting his stride a bit more recently. Let's hope that continues. Would like to see an early-March sort of peak...

[Kedsy]

I've been thinking about Kyle's future, and trying to identify comparable players. One name that keeps popping up is Matt Harpring, who has had a pretty nice NBA career.

So I ran the comparable players tool at www.scacchoops.com and got, from more similar to less:

Brandon Costner 854.00
Chris Williams 846.24
Mike Dunleavy 824.36
KC Rivers 799.00
Gerald Henderson 798.41
Junior Burrough 797.76
Terence Morris 793.79
Julius Hodge 783.00
James Forrest 781.76
Trevor Booker 781.64
Len Bias 778.96
Jeff Allen 777.34
Matt Harpring 767.34
Grant Hill 759.32
Mark Alarie 758.38

Some interesting names on the list, to say the least.

What do they base it on? There aren't many players on that list whose games I would rate as similar to Kyle's.

[MChambers]

What do they base it on? There aren't many players on that list whose games I would rate as similar to Kyle's.

It's purely statistical. Explanation here:

http://www.scacchoops.com/tt_Comparable_Description.asp

Some of the players are pretty good matches, I think (Harpring, Alarie, Dunleavy), but some seem terrible. But part of it may be how versatile Kyle is, so that he can seem similar to a power player like Junior Burrough or a wing like Julius Hodge.

[dukelion]

Well his 3pt% just went from 33% to 37% in a single game.

That's pretty impressive.

Kyle definitley seemed to be shooting quicker and in rythym.

The new motion offense seemed to give him more catch and shoot oppurtunities and he delivered big time.

Now it would be nice to see him do it on the road.

[greybeard]

I think that Kyle was playing in a more familiar role; beginning with catches much closer to the rim, attacking and drawing fouls, and then running from baseline, past screens to a catch behind the line, while executing an extraordinary turn into a shooting position, all of which works perfectly for him. This fits with what he kinows; he organizes his body to make this shift in momentum into a very familiar, reliable movement of ball and body from going away from the basket to going into shooting mode. An incredible athletic move that few can make and is very difficult to defend--the defender is trailing and would run him over if tried to seriously contest what for most would be an impossible shot. Offensive players feed off of doing that which exercises dominion and Kyle certainly did.

One would expect to see more of this inside out play to set up the rest of Kyle's game in the future. Whether Duke will still deploy with Kyle playing more like a classic three who catches beyond the line coming off an off the ball screen that brings him parellel to the basket, we'll see.

My suggestion is for Kyle to work on that aspect of his game from in close and in feigned slow motion, walk speed with no jumping, but making believe you are dribbling or moving without the ball at speed and from distance. The law of just noticeable differences that underlies most sensory, cognitive, and learning experiences operate on the principle that the lower the starting amplitude, the easier it is to notice the impact of slight differences. The feels and sequences that Kyle needs to find will be discernible in that context. Practicing, as I am sure he does, with repetitions done at hyper speed with the notion that slowing down will be easier is wrong headed for the type of learning that Kyle needs. Nevertheless, it is precisely the way high end trainers training high end athletes think progress can be made. While that might work for a person who already has a skill set and the already discovered and mastered the feels and associated skills that comprise a sequence, it is counterproductive for the type of learning that Kyle is after.

Yeah, I know, it sounds like old Grey slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Or, it just might be that in this instance my considerable experience with ,and serious study of, precisely such matters makes me sort of an expert.