Singler's Season

[Jeffrey]

Just a reminder though that even if Kyle is only shooting 33% from three, that is an effective FG% of 50% which is very good. As you mentioned, I also expect this percentage to increase, but even if it doesn't, it's not so bad.

Good point. Sometimes the obvious gets overlooked.

Taking this a level further... has anyone seen stats on the percentage of missed 3's vs. 2's which result in offensive rebounds?

[COYS]

Good point. Sometimes the obvious gets overlooked.

Taking this a level further... has anyone seen stats on the percentage of missed 3's vs. 2's which result in offensive rebounds?

On the other hand, missed threes can also lead to fast break points for the other team. I think Kyle should keep firing away when he's open, but it was good to see him have better shot selection last night.

[pfrduke]

Let's be realistic. There is a less than 50% chance that Singler will be at Duke next year. The only reason for him to come back would be akin to Joakim Noah - a feeling that he could win the NC (if we get to the Final 4 or better this year), and that it was worth passing up one year of multi million dollars. I won't blame him if he leaves, and judging by coach K's comments early in the year, that is his plan.

Well, there's also draft status. I don't know that anyone right now views him as a lottery pick if he leaves, given the way he's played so far this season (and the way some other players have shined). Maybe his play improves enough by the end of the year that he elevates himself to lottery status. Maybe he really just wants to leave, regardless of whether he's in the lottery, late first round, or even second round. I don't really know.

I'd compare him more to Ellington, Hansbrough, or Lawson - a guy who may want to leave if his draft status is high enough, but understands that an additional stellar year in college (particularly for a team that enjoys lots of team success) can elevate your draft status.

[pfrduke]

Following up on that, Draft Express currently forecasts Kyle at #24 this year (to OKC), and nbadraft.net has him at #24 next year. Take said projections with a large grain of salt (particularly since there's still half a season to go), but if he's still forecast to go late first this year by season's end, I would not at all be surprised to see him back.

[Hermy-own]

Following up on that, Draft Express currently forecasts Kyle at #24 this year (to OKC), and nbadraft.net has him at #24 next year. Take said projections with a large grain of salt (particularly since there's still half a season to go), but if he's still forecast to go late first this year by season's end, I would not at all be surprised to see him back.

You might be right. While I see Kyle's play improving slightly as the season goes on, especially in terms of shooting percentage, I don't expect him to break out in any big way. He is already averaging 16 and 7. He's definitely a competitive guy, and I'm sure he wants to win a National Championship. My theory that he was going to go pro was only based on K's early year comments that Kyle's schedule allowed him to work out like a pro (no classes until 11 AM). Now that his stock has dropped slightly from the beginning of the year, I hope he will consider coming back. If he becomes a lottery pick again, I expect to see him go, and I'll wish him well.

EDIT: Let's get this thread back on topic. I apologize for helping move the subject away from Austin Rivers. My thoughts on Rivers are that it's great that he's looking at Duke and I think Florida's season has to be hurting their recruitment. The positive signs are: His father appears to be very interested in Duke. Duke is a much better team than Florida. He had a great visit to Duke. The negative signs are: He did convince Brad Beal to go to Florida. It's possible he is showing interest in Duke because his dad wants him to, not because his heart is really into it. Overall... it's a tossup, IMO.

[DUKIE V(A)]

Let's be realistic. There is a less than 50% chance that Singler will be at Duke next year. The only reason for him to come back would be akin to Joakim Noah - a feeling that he could win the NC (if we get to the Final 4 or better this year), and that it was worth passing up one year of multi million dollars. I won't blame him if he leaves, and judging by coach K's comments early in the year, that is his plan.

I certainly would not blame Singler for leaving early; however, it will be interesting to see what he does. I think he would be turning down an excellent opportunity to get his jersey retired by leaving early (as well as a shot at a National Title).

[DUKIE V(A)]

I certainly would not blame Singler for leaving early; however, it will be interesting to see what he does. I think he would be turning down an excellent opportunity to get his jersey retired by leaving early (as well as a shot at a National Title).

Of course, he still has a shot at the National Title this season (but why not go for two straight).

[Houston]

Let's be realistic. There is a less than 50% chance that Singler will be at Duke next year. The only reason for him to come back would be akin to Joakim Noah - a feeling that he could win the NC (if we get to the Final 4 or better this year), and that it was worth passing up one year of multi million dollars. I won't blame him if he leaves, and judging by coach K's comments early in the year, that is his plan.

To be realistic there is less than a 50% chance that Singler will go pro. What position will he play? He's not an NBA 4 and he needs another year to prove he can play the 3 in the Big Boy League. Kyrie and and another year of maturity for Nolan and the Plumlees help his value. As was highlighted above, the 2010/2011 Devils should be playing in late March/early April.

[Kedsy]

To be realistic there is less than a 50% chance that Singler will go pro. What position will he play? He's not an NBA 4 and he needs another year to prove he can play the 3 in the Big Boy League. Kyrie and and another year of maturity for Nolan and the Plumlees help his value. As was highlighted above, the 2010/2011 Devils should be playing in late March/early April.

At this time last year, what was the chance that Gerald Henderson would go pro? He was an undersized 3, who didn't really have a good enough outside shot to be an NBA 2. The chances of Kyle leaving are about the same, in my opinion.

[rotogod00]

Not exactly sure why we're discussing Singler and his future at Duke on this thread, but for what it's worth, Chad Ford's most recent Top 100 (updated a couple of days ago) has Singler at 54. Here's his take:

"Jan 12 Update: After two years of doing a pretty good job of convincing skeptical scouts that he had NBA talent, Singler has been backsliding all season. Duke has moved him to small forward and his confidence and stroke have completely left him. In two of Singler's higher-profile games this year -- against Connecticut in late November and against Georgia Tech on Saturday -- he shot a combined 4-for-25 from the field and averaged just seven points. Clearly Singler looks uncomfortable in his new role at the 3. But scouts aren't cutting him much slack. Most teams see him as a 3, not a 4, at the next level. If he can't cut it in college, he won't cut it in the pros. Singler made his first appearance ever in our top 30 in mid-November. He's now slid out into the late 40s."

[MChambers]

I'd compare him more to Ellington, Hansbrough, or Lawson - a guy who may want to leave if his draft status is high enough, but understands that an additional stellar year in college (particularly for a team that enjoys lots of team success) can elevate your draft status.

Never compare a Duke guy to a UNC guy. Just isn't right.

[oldnavy]

At this time last year, what was the chance that Gerald Henderson would go pro? He was an undersized 3, who didn't really have a good enough outside shot to be an NBA 2. The chances of Kyle leaving are about the same, in my opinion.

It really isn't about what you have done that matters, it is about what you could possibly do. I think that Gerald at this point has or had a much greater ceiling than Kyle has. Not to disparage Kyle in any way, but he is going to be limited by his physical abilities more than G was IMO.

[Devilsfan]

G could have used another year. His family didn't seem desperate for the money. I hope he likes playing golf with old man jordan and riding the bench but I'm sure he enjoys the money.

[ice-9]

G could have used another year. His family didn't seem desperate for the money. I hope he likes playing golf with old man jordan and riding the bench but I'm sure he enjoys the money.

I know I would...

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Not exactly sure why we're discussing Singler and his future at Duke on this thread, but for what it's worth, Chad Ford's most recent Top 100 (updated a couple of days ago) has Singler at 54. Here's his take:

"Jan 12 Update: After two years of doing a pretty good job of convincing skeptical scouts that he had NBA talent, Singler has been backsliding all season. Duke has moved him to small forward and his confidence and stroke have completely left him. In two of Singler's higher-profile games this year -- against Connecticut in late November and against Georgia Tech on Saturday -- he shot a combined 4-for-25 from the field and averaged just seven points. Clearly Singler looks uncomfortable in his new role at the 3. But scouts aren't cutting him much slack. Most teams see him as a 3, not a 4, at the next level. If he can't cut it in college, he won't cut it in the pros. Singler made his first appearance ever in our top 30 in mid-November. He's now slid out into the late 40s."

Seems about right honestly. I do think it's a little low to take 2 games where you've struggled and combine them into one stat. You could say that the Wisconsin game and the Wake Forest game were just as high profile and he shined in those. But still, he is struggling and I wouldn't be salivating over him if I were an NBA scout.

[rotogod00]

Seems about right honestly. I do think it's a little low to take 2 games where you've struggled and combine them into one stat. You could say that the Wisconsin game and the Wake Forest game were just as high profile and he shined in those. But still, he is struggling and I wouldn't be salivating over him if I were an NBA scout.

agree with you that 2 games is way too small a sample size to normally judge a player, especially if they're outliers in his performance. but he has generally struggled all season and his limitations are what they are. his lack of athleticism is going to hurt him big time in the eyes of NBA teams. now, playing the small forward position at 6'9", if made up for it with lights out shooting, he'd probably be okay. but we all know he's very much a streaky shooter who's prone to force his shot.

[MarkD83]

The "draftability" of a player is not about their skill but about economics. The NBA draft is about supply and demand. The NBA GMs want as many players in the draft as possible so that they have more leverage. Gerald Henderson is a case in point from last year. He rides the pine for Charlotte but the NBA GMs wanted him in the draft so that they had more choices. By the middle of May Kyle will be projected as a lottery pick, because the GMs need more bodies in the draft.

With that being said...Can we talk about this in the off-season?

[sagegrouse]

The "draftability" of a player is not about their skill but about economics. The NBA draft is about supply and demand. The NBA GMs want as many players in the draft as possible so that they have more leverage. Gerald Henderson is a case in point from last year. He rides the pine for Charlotte but the NBA GMs wanted him in the draft so that they had more choices. By the middle of May Kyle will be projected as a lottery pick, because the GMs need more bodies in the draft.

With that being said...Can we talk about this in the off-season?

Given that there are a fixed number of lottery and first-round picks and given that there is a salary scale, I have no idea how you stuff more players into the first round or how the owners gain if more supposedly inferior players enter the draft. If Kyle becomes a lottery pick, someone else doesn't, and why should the owners and GMs prefer Kyle to a better player?

In other words, I have no idea what you are talking about.

sagegrouse
'BTW I think Kyle, even during his shooting slump, is an awesome presence during the game. And there is no one who works harder on the court. I expect he will play a long time in the NBA'

[77devil]

By the middle of May Kyle will be projected as a lottery pick, because the GMs need more bodies in the draft.

Not a chance unless he picks up his game substantially.

[rotogod00]

Given that there are a fixed number of lottery and first-round picks and given that there is a salary scale, I have no idea how you stuff more players into the first round or how the owners gain if more supposedly inferior players enter the draft. If Kyle becomes a lottery pick, someone else doesn't, and why should the owners and GMs prefer Kyle to a better player?

In other words, I have no idea what you are talking about.

sagegrouse
'BTW I think Kyle, even during his shooting slump, is an awesome presence during the game. And there is no one who works harder on the court. I expect he will play a long time in the NBA'

you and me both. a 2nd round talent is a 2nd round talent