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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    Carolina on the bubble?

    In the wake of last night's result, Carolina is down to #46 in the Pomeroy rankings. Ken now projects they will finish the season 18-13 with an ACC record of 7-9. BC and NC State are the only road games where the Tarheels will be favored according to Pom. Can you say bubble?

    Sagarin has the Heels at #33, which is probably more reasonable than #46. A telling statistic though -- UNC is just 1-3 against the Sagarin top 50. They have played the 179th toughest schedule in the land.

    Perhaps most troubling for Carolina fans, CBS's RPI rankings have them at #58. We all know that the RPI matters to the NCAA Selection committee. 6 of the Tarheels wins are against teams ranked outside the RPI top 200 meaning their record against the RPI top 200 is 5-4... not too good.

    By comparison, Duke has played just 2 games against teams ranked outside the top 200 in the RPI. The Devils are #2 in the RPI, #2 in Pomeroy and #3 in Sagarin.

    --Jason "Ugly season so far in Chapa Heeya" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    We all know that the RPI matters to the NCAA Selection committee.

    --Jason "Ugly season so far in Chapa Heeya" Evans
    Disagree. Members of the committee have said that the RPI of a team has little significance. What does matter is who they have beaten in the top 25, 50 and 100 in the RPI rankings. Not that these numbers make carolina look better, but if carolina gets some quality wins throughout the season, this will matter much more than whatever their actual ranking is.
    1200. DDMF.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Disagree. Members of the committee have said that the RPI of a team has little significance. What does matter is who they have beaten in the top 25, 50 and 100 in the RPI rankings. Not that these numbers make carolina look better, but if carolina gets some quality wins throughout the season, this will matter much more than whatever their actual ranking is.
    Which they will -- I think it is a mistake to write off a young Carolina team with as much talent/potential as they have, this early in the season.

    That said, I am convinced that Duke is decidedly better than UNC this year, which I haven't been able to say for a little while now.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    --Jason "Ugly season so far in Chapa Heeya" Evans
    I hate the Heels as much as the next guy, but "ugly" is a bit strong for an 11-4 squad.

    The concept of the "on the bubble" has no meaning for teams like UNC that will get the benefit from the doubt from the Committee; either they are in or they are out. (And they won't be out; they have too much talent for a complete collapse.) Their worst case scenario is a season akin to Duke in 2007 - .500 conference mark and early exits in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

  5. #5

    Whoa, There, Big Fella!

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    In the wake of last night's result, Carolina is down to #46 in the Pomeroy rankings. Ken now projects they will finish the season 18-13 with an ACC record of 7-9. BC and NC State are the only road games where the Tarheels will be favored according to Pom. Can you say bubble?

    Sagarin has the Heels at #33, which is probably more reasonable than #46. A telling statistic though -- UNC is just 1-3 against the Sagarin top 50. They have played the 179th toughest schedule in the land.

    Perhaps most troubling for Carolina fans, CBS's RPI rankings have them at #58. We all know that the RPI matters to the NCAA Selection committee. 6 of the Tarheels wins are against teams ranked outside the RPI top 200 meaning their record against the RPI top 200 is 5-4... not too good.

    By comparison, Duke has played just 2 games against teams ranked outside the top 200 in the RPI. The Devils are #2 in the RPI, #2 in Pomeroy and #3 in Sagarin.

    --Jason "Ugly season so far in Chapa Heeya" Evans
    If this situation keeps up, I can see this eventually turning into a "Taylor King 10PPG" profile/sig Jumbo vs. whoever-type bet later this season (Will they or won't they make the field? What seed will they get?). Maybe Wheat vs. the field for pink slips.

    But I think it's WAAAAY premature to think the Holes won't get in the tournament. I mean, if they don't, somebody might actually pull a spontaneous Klemnop or something.

    But we can dream, I guess!
    Last edited by slower; 01-05-2010 at 03:41 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    I hate the Heels as much as the next guy, but "ugly" is a bit strong for an 11-4 squad.

    The concept of the "on the bubble" has no meaning for teams like UNC that will get the benefit from the doubt from the Committee; either they are in or they are out. (And they won't be out; they have too much talent for a complete collapse.) Their worst case scenario is a season akin to Duke in 2007 - .500 conference mark and early exits in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.
    2007 uconn team fresh of an elite eight, and 2 championships in the last 7 years started the next year 11-0 or something and was ranked in the top 10 in the country and failed to make the NIT....i wouldn't count anyone in...but if anyone gets boost its UNC and duke....we'll have to see how they do in the acc
    1200. DDMF.

  7. #7
    "Perhaps most troubling for Carolina fans"

    is the fact that they lost last night after letting a team come back from an 11 pt deficit late.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    2007 uconn team fresh of an elite eight, and 2 championships in the last 7 years started the next year 11-0 or something and was ranked in the top 10 in the country and failed to make the NIT....i wouldn't count anyone in...but if anyone gets boost its UNC and duke....we'll have to see how they do in the acc
    Don't forget Arizona. Their consecutive streak is only alive these days because of their name.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC

    I don't really see UNC as a bubble team

    I suspect that the Pomeroy ranking of #46 is influenced a good bit by the loss yesterday. But the team that lost yesterday (without Ginyard and Graves) is much different than the team will be in February. Simply adding those two players makes the backcourt much deeper and more experienced (replacing Watts and Wear and some of the Strickland/McDonald minutes) which makes them better. And that's assuming no development for a team that is very young and inexperienced at key positions.

    I'm not saying that UNC will be a 12/13-win ACC team, but I don't think that 7-9 is reflective of how they'll perform in the ACC this year. I think they'll get to 9-10 ACC wins and be comfortably in the field. I think the rest of the ACC (aside from us, obviously) is mediocre enough that UNC will get their share of wins.

    However, I'd LOVE it if UNC somehow managed to wind up on the outside of the bubble. And if the backcourt doesn't progress, it's not out of the realm of possibility that they could go 7-9.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Wilmington, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Disagree. Members of the committee have said that the RPI of a team has little significance. What does matter is who they have beaten in the top 25, 50 and 100 in the RPI rankings. Not that these numbers make carolina look better, but if carolina gets some quality wins throughout the season, this will matter much more than whatever their actual ranking is.
    I may be reading this wrong, but those sentences seem to contradict each other.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
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    Wilmington, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I suspect that the Pomeroy ranking of #46 is influenced a good bit by the loss yesterday. But the team that lost yesterday (without Ginyard and Graves) is much different than the team will be in February. Simply adding those two players makes the backcourt much deeper and more experienced (replacing Watts and Wear and some of the Strickland/McDonald minutes) which makes them better. And that's assuming no development for a team that is very young and inexperienced at key positions.

    I'm not saying that UNC will be a 12/13-win ACC team, but I don't think that 7-9 is reflective of how they'll perform in the ACC this year. I think they'll get to 9-10 ACC wins and be comfortably in the field.

    However, I'd LOVE it if UNC somehow managed to wind up on the outside of the bubble.
    If I remember correctly, they were somewhere in the 38-40 range before the CoC loss. Can anyone confirm?

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Mizzou, post-Quin
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    I hate the Heels as much as the next guy, but "ugly" is a bit strong for an 11-4 squad.

    The concept of the "on the bubble" has no meaning for teams like UNC that will get the benefit from the doubt from the Committee; either they are in or they are out. (And they won't be out; they have too much talent for a complete collapse.) Their worst case scenario is a season akin to Duke in 2007 - .500 conference mark and early exits in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.
    Agreed, except that Duke 2007 is already better than Carolina 2010. I don't think I ever chimed in during that "bubble" discussion three years ago, but at one point midway through conference play, it was conceivable that Duke might lose a couple more conference games than they wound up dropping, and ending up just below .500. Had that happened, it was Duke's OOC that would have kept them out of the bubble talk.

    Not necessarily the case for Carolina this year.
    Last edited by shoutingncu; 01-05-2010 at 03:50 PM. Reason: Haven't looked up 2007 record

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by striker219 View Post
    I may be reading this wrong, but those sentences seem to contradict each other.
    He's saying that their actual RPI # could be 80, but if they have a good record against other teams that have good RPI then that will matter and their actual # won't matter.

    Quote Originally Posted by striker219 View Post
    If I remember correctly, they were somewhere in the 38-40 range before the CoC loss. Can anyone confirm?
    I looked at it today and I believe it was 36 before CoC.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by shoutingncu View Post
    Agreed, except that Duke 2007 is already better than Carolina 2010. I don't think I ever chimed in during that "bubble" discussion three years ago, but at one point midway through conference play, it was conceivable that Duke might lose a couple more conference games than they wound up dropping, and ending up at .500 or lower. Had that happened, it was Duke's OOC that would have kept them out of the bubble talk.

    Not necessarily the case for Carolina this year.
    Yeah, a 7-9 Duke team in 2007 would have still had a good shot at making the tournament thanks to several strong non-conference wins. A 7-9 UNC team has only the letters on the front of the jersey and wins over Mich St and OSU (literally nothing else of value, and that OSU win will likely lose value over time) to support their case this year.

    It could happen (for example, if a couple of UNC's ACC wins come against Duke and Clemson), but it'd be a really tough sell. That said, I think UNC will get enough ACC wins to make the issue moot.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Pomeroy

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I suspect that the Pomeroy ranking of #46 is influenced a good bit by the loss yesterday. But the team that lost yesterday (without Ginyard and Graves) is much different than the team will be in February.
    UNC was 37 yesterday. So the team wasn't doing all that well even before last night. I agree with you, however, that it is very unlikely that UNC will not deserve to go to the NCAA tournament.

    I intend to keep dreaming, however.

    Paging Matt Doherty, paging Matt Doherty.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    unless unc absolutely TANKS a bunch of important games in the ACC and goes out first game of the acc tourny, they will be in the big dance...

    i'm not writing them off....

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Lewisville, NC
    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

    Lunardi had the Heels as a #3 seed in his latest bracketology, which was dated 1/4, before the Charleston game.

    I'm not buying the "bubble team" designation, but a mediocre season and early tournament exit...that would be fine.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by striker219 View Post
    I may be reading this wrong, but those sentences seem to contradict each other.
    Ha -- true. However, in this statement, a team's RPI seems to matter, but more so for the teams that they played against than for their own NCAA candidacy.

  19. #19
    It's fun to think about, but waaaay premature, after one bad loss, to talk about UNC missing the NCAAs.

    The Holes are 2-3 against the Pomeroy top 50, including a very close road loss at #2 UK and a semi-away game at #3 Texas where they trailed by 4 with 7 minutes left. Subjectively, as the committee likes to say, they looked like a tournament team.

    And as much as I'd love to see UNC finish 7-9 in the ACC, I don't see it. Georgia Tech's best wins are against Southern Cal and Siena, both at home. Clemson has a one point win against Butler but has losses to likely bubble team Texas A&M and probable NIT-bound Illinois, the latter at home. Virginia Tech, continuing their trend, played exactly one legit nonconference opponent (Temple) and got beat handily (no credit for beating Seton Hall). Miami has a nice win over Minnesota and nothing (and I really do mean nothing) else.

    I could go on, but bottom line, aside from Duke, UNC's tournament resume is in my view BY FAR the best among ACC teams at this point. I'd love to see them have to sweat it out, but I think 9-7 in the ACC would get them in, especially if one of those wins was over Duke.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    unless unc absolutely TANKS a bunch of important games in the ACC and goes out first game of the acc tourny, they will be in the big dance...

    i'm not writing them off....
    I don't think anyone is writing them off. Just realizing that it is possible for them to be a bubble team. Let's look at their schedule and predict some things:
    W Virginia Tech
    L @Clemson
    ? Georgia Tech
    ? Wake Forest
    W @North Carolina St.
    W Virginia
    ? @Virginia Tech
    ? @Maryland
    L Duke
    W @North Carolina St.
    ? Georgia Tech
    W @Boston College
    ? Florida St.
    L @Wake Forest
    ? Miami FL
    L @Duke

    That leaves them 5-4 w/ 7 games left in the air. If they lose 4 of those 7 then are they in? 5 of those 7? I don't think so and it's not beyond the realm of possibility.

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