BcS

[JasonEvans]

TCU (Mountain West) and Boise St (WAC) are one thing, but isn't it going to cause an uproar when a BCS conference produces an undefeated team (Cincy in the BEast) and they get frozen out of the national title game too?

C'mon Cincy, beat Pitt at Pitt. That would be a real statement win. If they do that, isn't it more impressive than anything Texas has done this year?

As an aside, I see all these BCS matchup projections and none of them seem to have TCU, Cincy, or Boise State playing each other. Why not have 2 undefeated teams match up in a bowl game? Why is it preferable to see these undefeated teams versus teams with a loss?

I am rooting for 3 or 4 undefeated teams at the end of the year

--Jason "BcS chaos... bring it on!!" Evans

[A-Tex Devil]

TCU (Mountain West) and Boise St (WAC) are one thing, but isn't it going to cause an uproar when a BCS conference produces an undefeated team (Cincy in the BEast) and they get frozen out of the national title game too?

C'mon Cincy, beat Pitt at Pitt. That would be a real statement win. If they do that, isn't it more impressive than anything Texas has done this year?

As an aside, I see all these BCS matchup projections and none of them seem to have TCU, Cincy, or Boise State playing each other. Why not have 2 undefeated teams match up in a bowl game? Why is it preferable to see these undefeated teams versus teams with a loss?

I am rooting for 3 or 4 undefeated teams at the end of the year

--Jason "BcS chaos... bring it on!!" Evans

Simple answer -- $$. No one wants to see Cincy-TCU/Boise-TCU, etc. (Plus TCU already beat Boise last year).

It's the same reason the Big Televen is (undeservedly) going to get 2 teams into the BCS. That's right. Unless the Fiesta Bowl does the right thing and picks Boise, then either Penn State, who has beaten exactly nobody, or Iowa, who may be the worst 10-2 team I have ever seen in a BCS conference, will be in the BCS. This would be over a 2 loss GaTech or Cincinnati. Them's the breaks.

To see how it might play out, click the link with the procedure:
BCS Procedures

Let's assume UT and Cincy win conference and Gators win today to simplify things.

BCS Championship will be UT (2) vs. SEC Winner (1).

Rose Bowl - OSU-Winner of Oregon civil war
Sugar Bowl - gets first pick since they lost SEC winner. They will pick SEC loser.
Fiesta Bowl - gets second pick since they lost Texas. Let's get back to this. Unless Fiesta Bowl uses this pick on Boise, Boise won't get in.
Orange Bowl - gets ACC Champ plus third pick

Sooooo.... who does the Fiesta Bowl pick? Assuming they beat OU, I am going with Oklahoma St.

Orange Bowl - ACC Winner. They won't pick Cincy since Cincy was there last year. They will pick the PSU/Iowa garbage over TCU for $$ reasons, I think. Probably PSU which is even more of a travesty.

Fiesta Bowl. Hmmmmm... Cincy or TCU. Gotta think they take TCU. I hope not, but Cincy travels worse than TCU

Sugar Bowl. Left with Cincy.


So unless one of the bowls has a crisis of conscience and picks Boise, you are looking at:

BCS - UT-SEC Winner
Rose - tOSU - Civil War Winner
Sugar - SEC Loser - Cincy
Orange - ACC Winner vs. PSU/Iowa
Fiesta - Okie Light vs Frogs

[A-Tex Devil]

So the Sooners helped Boise out today.

The way it will play out now, I think is:

BCS: UT-SEC Champ
Rose: OSU-Civil War winner
Sugar: SEC Loser (slot1)-(slot 4)
Fiesta: (slot 2)-(slot 5)
Orange: ACC Champ-(slot 3)

The SEC, BIG X and TCU will be 3 of the 4 at large teams. So Boise has to be rooting for no upsets next weekend. If Texas loses, they definitely get in ahead of Boise. If Ga Tech loses, I think they do too. If Oregon loses and is eligible, I could definitely see the bowls making a cash grab and inviting either them or VaTech (assuming Ga Tech wins) over Boise.

[kmspeaks]

--Jason "BcS chaos... bring it on!!" Evans

Auburn was one bad series away.

If they hold on to that upset Bama could have handed the BCS absolute chaos by turning around and beating Florida. Oh what could have been.

[Wander]

It's not like Hawaii from a couple of years ago either. TCU and Cincy are both really, really good. Worthy of playing in a national title game.

Oh, and the two ACC title game participants lost to mediocre SEC teams. Pathetic.

[Kfan4Life]

Georgia is more talented than any team in the ACC. It was also a rivalry game. The Georgia Players still had memories of GT tearing up the hedges, and the seniors putting the score of last years game on their rings. This was a sweet weekend for me. First K taking Calhoun to the woodshed, and then Georgia running the ball down Techs throat. I graduated from Georgia so I pull for the Football team, but I have been a fan of Duke basketball since watching Dawkins and Amaker slapping the court when I was a kid.

[JasonEvans]

Auburn was one bad series away.

If they hold on to that upset Bama could have handed the BCS absolute chaos by turning around and beating Florida. Oh what could have been.

No, I don't see that scenario as chaos. That scenario actually helps the BcS because it removes controversy about who plays in the national title game. If there are only 2 teams who played a legit schedule who are undefeated then the BcS has worked perfectly and there is no chaos.

Chaos comes when there are a lot of undefeated teams getting shut out of playing in meaningful games. When that happens, we get more and more people saying, "this is so silly, why don't we have a playoff?"

-Jason "If Boise beat Oregon soundly but does not even get a 2nd-tier BcS game, that is some chaos" Evans

[kmspeaks]

No, I don't see that scenario as chaos. That scenario actually helps the BcS because it removes controversy about who plays in the national title game. If there are only 2 teams who played a legit schedule who are undefeated then the BcS has worked perfectly and there is no chaos.

Chaos comes when there are a lot of undefeated teams getting shut out of playing in meaningful games. When that happens, we get more and more people saying, "this is so silly, why don't we have a playoff?"

-Jason "If Boise beat Oregon soundly but does not even get a 2nd-tier BcS game, that is some chaos" Evans

You are right the BCS may have gotten what it wanted in 2, and only 2, undefeated teams from BCS conferences in that scenario. I do think though that the voters might believe a 1 loss Florida/Alabama is better than an undefeated Cincinnati and definitely better than an undefeated TCU/Boise St. You could have discrepancies between polls and the BCS. (Or if you want to go conspiracy theory you could say the BCS may be manipulated to keep Cincinnati out since Texas vs. 1 loss SEC team probably means more $$.)

Take it a step further and say Cincinnati somehow upsets Texas in the title game. Now who does the AP say is better. Undefeated Cincinnati or a 1 loss SEC team that didn't get to play Texas. Could we have a split national title?

Of course all of this is meaningless since Auburn couldn't finish. It's probably double meaningless as well because if 2004 with USC, Oklahoma, and Auburn being undefeated didn't bring about a playoff I don't know what will.

[A-Tex Devil]

Everything fell into place for Boise over the weekend. They just have to cross fingers that Nebraska doesn't upset Texas. If that doesn't happen, I can't imagine voters picking a Cincy team that just lost to Pitt over them. The only outside fly in the ointment might be Virginia Tech, who will be eligible for the BCS. That would create quite an uproar, though.

I want Boise to make a BCS bowl for all the wrong reasons. I'll go on record saying the Oregon win was a fluke. I hope they get beat bad so next time they go undefeated we can all go "isn't that nice" and they don't waste time on my TV. They had their shining moment 3 years ago and it was wonderful. But had they played a team whose coach knew how to win a bowl game they would have lost like they should have.

(PS --- Why does Bob Stoops eat his Cheerios on a plate?...



... because if they were in a bowl, he would lose them!)

[JasonEvans]

The guys at ESPN who project the bowls are in agreement--

Citi BCS National Championship Game SEC winner vs. Texas
Tostitos Fiesta Iowa vs. Boise State
Allstate Sugar SEC loser vs. Cincinnati
FedEx Orange Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Rose Bowl Oregon vs. Ohio State

Pity, I had really hoped we'd get Cincy vs. TCU. Those two can PLAY.

--Jason "if I am TCU, my goal is to whup the SEC loser by more than the SEC winner did" Evans

[Wander]

The guys at ESPN who project the bowls are in agreement--

Citi BCS National Championship Game SEC winner vs. Texas
Tostitos Fiesta Iowa vs. Boise State
Allstate Sugar SEC loser vs. Cincinnati
FedEx Orange Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Rose Bowl Oregon vs. Ohio State

Clemson is the x-factor here (well, Nebraska too I guess, but this is more realistic). If they beat GT, that could screw up this entire pairing, because they've already lost to TCU this season. Bowls might not want a rematch...

[-bdbd]

Hey, if Duke keeps getting better, as we generally have been saying, and many or even most (?) of us think that Duke will be playing in a bowl game in the next 2-3 years, as well as more frequently after that, then it occurs to me that, as Duke fans, we might not WANT a playoff system (which is what I think Jason and others are seeking). One of the side-effects of having a football playoff would be that fewer schools would make bowls (while those actually in the playoffs would get to play 2-3 more times). I too have long argued for playoffs, out of basic fairness, but am having second thoughts if it means our beloved Devils will miss bowling when they otherwise would have made a bowl game in a couple/few years...

Just saying...




P.S. I think we get to see TWO National Championship games this year -- since Bama and FLA are probably the best two teams out there, the SEC Championship is, de-facto, the first NC Game. The second will be when Texas takes on the winner (though I expect an SEC team to be dancing at the end of that one).

P.P.S. The ACC can only blame itself - and its repeated FB mediocrity - for not benefitting more from the current BCS set-up, as unfair as it is. Given our southern location, if some of the bigger-fanbase-ACC-schools could pull together some 0 or 1 or 2 loss seasons, the same bias that causes the BCS to choose PSU (blech!) or Iowa, would also favor a large school from much closer to the Bowl location... Say, if Clemson or GT or FSU were a 1-loss or even 2 loss team, and didn't win the conference, then the Sugar bowl would be hard-pressed not to follow their wallet to that ACC school.

P.P.P.S. Do we have any predictions for ACC team destinations? I'm thinking GT to the Orange, Clemson to Peach (though VT or even MIA are possible), Miami to the Gator, VT (or Mia) to the Orlando Bowl (Champs I believe), and Kerlina to the Tire Bowl again, in Charlotte. FSU goes last, I think that is the Emerald Bowl. Where does that leave BC - Washington DC (Eagle Bank Bowl) or in Boise?

[blazindw]

The guys at ESPN who project the bowls are in agreement--

Citi BCS National Championship Game SEC winner vs. Texas
Tostitos Fiesta Iowa vs. Boise State
Allstate Sugar SEC loser vs. Cincinnati
FedEx Orange Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Rose Bowl Oregon vs. Ohio State

Pity, I had really hoped we'd get Cincy vs. TCU. Those two can PLAY.

--Jason "if I am TCU, my goal is to whup the SEC loser by more than the SEC winner did" Evans

I would hope to get Cincy vs. TCU as well, but it's not going to happen. That wouldn't attract ratings. Plus, when one team wins, a lot of the rest of the nation can go "Yawn, we'll never know what they could have done against 'real' competition". Putting Cincy against Bama/UF or TCU against Tech will give them a real chance to show themselves on the national stage. They remain undefeated, all the talk will then begin about how good they really were.

[kmspeaks]

Hey, if Duke keeps getting better, as we generally have been saying, and many or even most (?) of us think that Duke will be playing in a bowl game in the next 2-3 years, as well as more frequently after that, then it occurs to me that, as Duke fans, we might not WANT a playoff system (which is what I think Jason and others are seeking). One of the side-effects of having a football playoff would be that fewer schools would make bowls (while those actually in the playoffs would get to play 2-3 more times). I too have long argued for playoffs, out of basic fairness, but am having second thoughts if it means our beloved Devils will miss bowling when they otherwise would have made a bowl game in a couple/few years...

Just saying...

Well some of the playoff proposals would still keep the other bowls for those 6+ win teams who don't make it into the playoff. So Duke would still get its reward for getting the football program moving in the right direction.

[A-Tex Devil]

I would hope to get Cincy vs. TCU as well, but it's not going to happen. That wouldn't attract ratings. Plus, when one team wins, a lot of the rest of the nation can go "Yawn, we'll never know what they could have done against 'real' competition". Putting Cincy against Bama/UF or TCU against Tech will give them a real chance to show themselves on the national stage. They remain undefeated, all the talk will then begin about how good they really were.

Assuming Texas wins, the order of picks for at large will go Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta.

So the question becomes, will the Sugar choose between TCU and Cincy, or go for the cash grab of PSU/Iowa?

The bowls have the unenviable task of picking among 3 teams that simply don't travel very well or are small (TCU, Cincy, Boise St.).

[ForkFondler]

Well some of the playoff proposals would still keep the other bowls for those 6+ win teams who don't make it into the playoff. So Duke would still get its reward for getting the football program moving in the right direction.

Right, I don't think a having a football tournament would eliminate all the bowls - we still have the NOT, don't we?. They could easily have a sixteen team tournament with the first two rounds in late November and early December, possibly with conference titles comprising some of the first round games. Then anybody not in the final four could go on to another bowl.

[A-Tex Devil]

Assuming Texas wins, the order of picks for at large will go Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta.

So the question becomes, will the Sugar choose between TCU and Cincy, or go for the cash grab of PSU/Iowa?

The bowls have the unenviable task of picking among 3 teams that simply don't travel very well or are small (TCU, Cincy, Boise St.).

I am mistaken -- Fiesta has the first real choice as the Sugar will almost certainly pick the SEC loser. So it goes down like this:

Sugar - SEC loser
Fiesta - Probably PSU/Iowa over the other 3 undefeateds just to guarantee a gate.
Orange - They don't want Cincy (who played there last year). But they don't want TCU or Boise either. Their best bet is TCU probably. So let's go that route.

But what happens if the Sugar Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl go rogue with their second pick and choose USC or VaTech over Boise? You know they want to.

[Highlander]

Right, I don't think a having a football tournament would eliminate all the bowls - we still have the NOT, don't we?. They could easily have a sixteen team tournament with the first two rounds in late November and early December, possibly with conference titles comprising some of the first round games. Then anybody not in the final four could go on to another bowl.

The thing that I hate about the current BCS system is that teams are chosen primarily based on how much $ they bring the bowl, and not based on how deserving they are. Until that model changes, the SEC and Big 12 will always be in line for 2 BCS bids every year. I'd love for the other conferences to man up and ditch the model. I'd also love for the ACC to grow a set and actually field a decent title contender for once in a blue moon so they could be in the discussion.

[blazindw]

I am mistaken -- Fiesta has the first real choice as the Sugar will almost certainly pick the SEC loser. So it goes down like this:

Sugar - SEC loser
Fiesta - Probably PSU/Iowa over the other 3 undefeateds just to guarantee a gate.
Orange - They don't want Cincy (who played there last year). But they don't want TCU or Boise either. Their best bet is TCU probably. So let's go that route.

But what happens if the Sugar Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl go rogue with their second pick and choose USC or VaTech over Boise? You know they want to.

As it stands right now, USC cannot be selected for the BCS since they're not in the top 14. They are 18th right now and would have to somehow annihilate Arizona and leap 4 spots to even be considered.

One possibility is Va Tech. Their fans travel in DROVES, and I bet the Sugar Bowl would love to have them. I think the Fiesta would take TCU, as a lot of TCU fans are secondary Longhorns fans and are used to traveling to the desert. However, I think that Cincy would be slotted here anyway since the Orange doesn't want them and the Sugar would probably want to take Va Tech, which would have the Horned Frogs in Dade County. Assuming all holds true, it could be this:

BCS - UF/Bama-Texas
Fiesta - PSU/Iowa-Cincy
Sugar - UF/Bama-Va Tech
Rose - Ohio Snake-Oregon/Oregon St.
Orange - GT-TCU

[A-Tex Devil]

As it stands right now, USC cannot be selected for the BCS since they're not in the top 14. They are 18th right now and would have to somehow annihilate Arizona and leap 4 spots to even be considered.

One possibility is Va Tech. Their fans travel in DROVES, and I bet the Sugar Bowl would love to have them. I think the Fiesta would take TCU, as a lot of TCU fans are secondary Longhorns fans and are used to traveling to the desert. However, I think that Cincy would be slotted here anyway since the Orange doesn't want them and the Sugar would probably want to take Va Tech, which would have the Horned Frogs in Dade County. Assuming all holds true, it could be this:

BCS - UF/Bama-Texas
Fiesta - PSU/Iowa-Cincy
Sugar - UF/Bama-Va Tech
Rose - Ohio Snake-Oregon/Oregon St.
Orange - GT-TCU

You are right about USC. Sugar won't be 'Bama VaTech if 'Bama loses to Florida. They won't do that rematch.

If Oregon loses, they are another potential fly in the ointment as they will still be top 14. Fiesta Bowl could potentially snag them instead of a Boise. If the Fiesta Bowl doesn't want Boise St., Boise St. ain't making the dance, I don't think.

I was at the Poinsettia Bowl last year, though, and there was a lot of Blue and Orange. I'm not sure what their turnout was in Phoenix 3 years ago (i.e. whether it was up to snuff and they took all of their allocation or not).