It is best just to be honest about things and your synopsis agrees with what I have seen. As far as further development, if in nearly 4 years of intense coaching, a player hasn't developed sufficiently, it is unlikely to happen in the remaining few months or in the future either. Why coach K says something kuje he did is hard to fathom.
I understand some of you being non-believers in Lance's STYLE of play but ever since Shavlik Randolph has stuck in the pros I've learned to put a little more credence into Coach K's words. He sees things we don't and he also has a few more connections than us.
Ironically, I think the SPEED of the NBA game may actually be to Lance's advantage. He'd make a decent NBA three off the bench and he reminds me a lot of Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas without the height. The NBA always seems to have a place for folks that want to play defense and Lance certainly gets up and down the floor. No reason why he can't be a Renaldo Balkman...
Contrary to popular belief the NBA is NOT a place full of polished games and acrobatic dunks. It's a game of fast breaks, pick and rolls, high screens, and one on one match-ups. Certain players are made for it and others with all the skill in the world are not (think Adam Morrison here).
Shav is the exception. He's not the rule. You wouldn't pick every 11 seed to go to the Final Four in your brackets just because George Mason proved that it was technically possible, would you?
Lance has a role on this team because he's versatile and pretty good on defense at the college level. But your comparisons for the NBA are absolutely terrible, even after adjusting for height. Joakim Noah had an offensive game that was 1000 times better than Lance's and was much better on defense too, and Tyrus Thomas is 1000 times more athletic than Lance. Seriously, it's not close in either case.
There's quite a bit of hyperbole there, but I agree with your general points. Identifying the rare case in which a guy who didn't have a huge college career makes it to the pros is not reason to suggest that someone else will make it.
As for the comparisons, I also agree that they aren't very valid, mainly because Noah is a PF/C and is a VERY good rebounder and post defender, and because Thomas is just so freakishly athletic for a PF. Both were MUCH bigger factors defensively than Thomas, who merely looks good at times but rarely does he look game-changing like those other two.
I think it's highly unlikely Thomas lands any meaningful role in the NBA. I won't say it's impossible, because strange things can happen. My only beef is with the folks that are taking the statement that Coach K thinks Thomas could play in the NBA and turning it into Coach K thinks Thomas will play in the NBA.
They're all hustle guys, but you're overlooking some VERY substantive differences. Noah plays PF/C, so the offensive bar is a lot lower. He's also much better defensively and as a rebounder than Lance Thomas. Tyrus Thomas is, in fact, MUCH more athletic than Lance Thomas. He was a game changing shotblocker with his leaping ability. Lance Thomas is a pretty good athlete, but he's not nearly in the same class. Nor has he shown the same ability to consistently impact the game defensively like Thomas did. And again, he plays a different position than Tyrus Thomas. Being a "hustle guy" is a pretty broad term, and it really understates the value that those two also bring.
But what about guys like Renaldo (who I think is more apt)? There are plenty of guys who weren't high on radars or even great college players that have snuck on to NBA rosters. I'm not predicting that Lance will be drafted or anything of the sort but I don't think it's unfounded that a team might have a role for a guy like him.
As much as I hated Noah and Ty Thomas, they were both great college players that were more than just hustle. Thomas averaged 12 and 9 during his sole college season and Noah averaged 12 and 8 during his final year. Thomas won't sniff those numbers at Duke. Its just not a real comparison at all.
Noah was a Final Four MVP on one of the best teams of the decade. Tyrus was taken, what, like 5th in the NBA draft? Aside from being high energy guys, they don't really have anything in common with Lance - as CDu pointed out, they don't even play the same position! Let's just all admit you made a mistake mentioning Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas and move on.
Renaldo does make some sense to me though. He was a defensive oriented forward who got his points mostly based on hustle rather than being a skilled scorer. He was a better college player than Lance (I'm pretty sure he made a couple of All-SEC teams during his time there), but I won't argue the comparison from a style point of view. It's probably a good one.
BTW, feldspar, wasn't it some guy named Temple who defended JJ that game? Not Tyrus Thomas. I think.
I look at D-Marc & McRoberts and that's enough to tell me that Lance probably will not have a roster spot on an NBA team next year. I know Josh is currently on the Pacer roster, but look what it's taken for him to get there. And his playing time is really low. Then I see Shelden on the Celtics getting little minutes. Lance is not as good a defensive player as these guys. Coach K was trying to give Lance some confidence as get into the tougher games. At least that's my opinion. Go Duke!