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Thread: Zīs case

  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by speedevil2001 View Post
    0.4 blocks!!! r u sure thats right. seem a little low. i would think something like 2.5 blocks before consider starting him
    Last year he had 2.72 blocks per 40 minutes. This year so far only 0.65 blocks per 40, but my guess is that will go up with a larger sample size (and the points and rebounds per 40 will go down, from 20 and 22 to probably around 14 and 14, although obviously that's just a guess).

  2. #42
    I think we are getting too caught up in the numbers. Z is good in short spurts (the reason for the good numbers), but if he were given more minutes his conditioning would not be up to par. I'm not knocking him, but Z has a different body type and athletic make up that would not allow him to play 30 minutes/game even if he had zero fouls. He gives it his all when he is in there, whether it is points, rebounds, fouls or all of the above.

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldSchool View Post
    I agree that Zoubs is underappreciated for what he brings because he looks unathletic when he plays.

    However, I would continue to start Miles while giving Z heavy minutes off the bench.

    I think we kind of have an idea what Z's ceiling is, even though his development has been slowed by injuries and I expect this year to be his best year.

    I strongly suspect Miles has a significantly higher ceiling than Z, so even though Z is playing quite well (apart from fouling), I would give Miles the starter's role to allow him to develop over the course of the season. I think Miles could be very good by the end of the season.

    His shot, his coordination and his hops all seem better than Z. Given his hops, if he does prove to have good coordination Miles could end up being an outstanding shot-blocker.

    And if he can consistently hit a 10-12 foot jumper, that gives us something Z doesn't have.
    I don't disagree with any of your post, I just dislike that many people assume they know what Lance's and Z's "ceilings" are because they have seen them play the most. I tend to believe that players can still improve between their junior and senior years and during their senior years. That is something I really enjoy about college basketball; watching the players improve.
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    against pitiable teams, those numbers are not good for someone who is 7'1...a 7'1 guy in college basketball should be close to a double double every night...
    Maybe we should just recruit 7 footers if they should all get double doubles every night.
    Quote Originally Posted by ElonIsRising View Post
    Okay, I'll give you that. That game drove me up the wall too. My point was merely that throughout his 3+ years at Duke, Z has been a foul waiting to happen. It sucks but is true, and his constant fouling has been and continues to be why he doesn't see minutes for extended periods of time.

    To the OP's statement 'he deserves more minutes' -- he can't b/c he is always in foul trouble.
    Perhaps a little harsh? I believe Z has made lots of great contributions over his career and should not therefore be denigrated this way. I would rather say he is a rebound waiting to happen or a positive +/- waiting to happen.

    Quote Originally Posted by Genedoc View Post
    Here are the Zoubek stats that matter most:

    Charlotte - 16 minutes, 4 fouls
    Radford - 14 minutes, 5 fouls
    C. Carolina - 16 minutes, 2 fouls
    UNCG - 16 minutes, 3 fouls

    Extrapolating his stats to 35-40 minutes/game doesn't make any sense at all when he's shown no capacity to stay on the floor for more than the 15-20 he's getting.

    Zoubek is a good player who is excelling in the role he's currently in. I'm pretty happy with that.
    Are these really the stats that matter most? I kind of appreciate his fantastic +/- and rebounding numbers and feel they matter more. I would rather have a player with a great +/- and lots of fouls than a poor +/- with few fouls.

    I believe this year is the offense is much, much better suited to Zoubek's strengths. We seemed to avoid using the post much last year, but are actively trying to pass the ball inside this year. We are also using a high-low passing attack and Zoubek is a pretty good passer so this uses one of his strengths as well. I don't think Zoubek is quick enough to take his man off the dribble from the high post like Kelly and Lance, but he generally makes good decisions and passes quite well.

    I also think Z does a good job defensively of flashing on high screens for pick and rolls to give his teammate time to get around the screens. He presents a wide body to get around to prevent penetration. He may not be the quickest guy, but I have almost always, if not always, seen him really hustle to retreat to his man in those situations as well. Those would be the most difficult help side situations for Z (since he is so far from the basket), and he handles them reasonably well. If he is slow retreating this year, I like our chances of having another big down low to help him out inside. This is my long way of saying that having the Plumlees and Kelly paired with him defensively will also be good for him as well.

    I don't at all disagree with Miles playing more than him and starting over him, but I also think Z will give us valuable production this year against all kinds of opponents playing 10-15 mpg. Since we have some great frontcourt players this year who will be playing many minutes, is it really a big problem if Zoubek plays 15 minutes, fouls a bunch and we outscore the opposition by a bunch during his time on the floor?

    If you hadn't noticed I am a big Zoubek fan and look forward to his contributions this year.

  4. #44
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    Coach K knows

    Zoubs is a great weapon coming off the bench. He is not pretty but he does get the job done. Miles is playing real well and deserves to start. He can do many thing Zoubs cannot do. But we need Zoubs to come off the bench and play hard. That leads to fouls, but we can afford them. When Mason comes back I don't have any idea whose minutes go down. I hope that Zoubs plays the same amount of mins he's getting now. I'll leave that up to Coach K. But remember just because Brian's 7'1" does not mean he should avg a dbl/dbl. Not many players have done that no matter how tall they were. That's my 2cents worth. Go Duke!

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    Are these really the stats that matter most? I kind of appreciate his fantastic +/- and rebounding numbers and feel they matter more. I would rather have a player with a great +/- and lots of fouls than a poor +/- with few fouls.
    You're welcome to appreciate whatever you like, but the foul stats cannot be ignored. They're the statistics that if accrued rapidly enough will disqualify the player from the remainder of the game. If you're getting 3-4 fouls per 15 minutes of game time, that renders the extrapolations this argument was based upon moot.

  6. #46
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    frontcourt depth

    Quote Originally Posted by Genedoc View Post
    You're welcome to appreciate whatever you like, but the foul stats cannot be ignored. They're the statistics that if accrued rapidly enough will disqualify the player from the remainder of the game. If you're getting 3-4 fouls per 15 minutes of game time, that renders the extrapolations this argument was based upon moot.
    Thank you for allowing me to appreciate whether we are winning or losing and how productive players are as more important than if guys are fouling out or not. If we are not expecting Zoubek to play more than 15 minutes a game, and we have the frontcourt depth that we do not need him more than that, and his rebounding and +/- numbers are great during that time, why does it matter if he gets 3-4 fouls during that 15 minutes, or even fouls out? For information purposes, over a larger sample size (last year), Brian fouled out once in 36 games (17 starts), with 71 fouls in 427 minutes or one foul every 6 minutes, which would allow him to play (on average) 30 minutes, well above what we are looking for from him this year.

  7. #47
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    We are all familiar with what Z's limitations are and I'm sure he knows his limits too. Yeah, it's frustrating to see him fumble away a rebound or miss a lay-up rather than dunking the ball. However, one positive thing I can truly say about Z is that he tries hard and I value anybody who gives it their all every time they hit the floor. You can see the frustration on his face when he makes a mistake but he never gives up and sometimes that desire to make a good defensive play may lead to yet another foul. If a man works hard and bleeds Duke Blue and supports his teammates like Z does, then by all means I'm going to support and encourage him to the max. Z may not be the best player but he always gives "his best" even though "his best" may be underappreciated by some.

  8. #48
    I agree...Z looks clumsy at times and loses a few rebounds it seems other people would get...but the fact he's putting up good numbers despite those "mistakes" means he's getting his hands on more rebounds then everyone else to begin with.

    Z's big issue IMO has been his agility. The ability to adjust to things on the fly. Some of this has to do with his build but a lot can probably be from his injuries.

    He has no pressure right now and he's playing on a team with bigmen who can pass and score. I think he'll have a very good season for us in the 10-15 minute range.

  9. #49
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    Since both Brian and Lance continue to get a solid amount of playing time I would have to assume that Coach K is happy with both their effort and for the most part the results.

    We can discuss individual stats all we want, however let's remember this is a team sport and if one or two players accumulates a number of fouls in a short amount of time, that has a negative effect on the team as a whole.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by jipops View Post
    You obviously have not watched any Duke games so far. Of course only two have been televised so I partially understand. His last output was 9 boards in 14 minutes mostly against a 270lb muscle mass center who would most likely start on any team in this conference and I'd be willing to bet is getting looks from scouts in the association.

    These are rebound numbers while averaging about 15 minutes pg.
    or...i've been to every duke game...
    1200. DDMF.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    We can discuss individual stats all we want, however let's remember this is a team sport and if one or two players accumulates a number of fouls in a short amount of time, that has a negative effect on the team as a whole.
    Except Z's plus/minus numbers refute the idea that his fouls have a negative impact.

    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevilCorvette! View Post
    We are all familiar with what Z's limitations are and I'm sure he knows his limits too. Yeah, it's frustrating to see him fumble away a rebound or miss a lay-up rather than dunking the ball.
    Tim1515 answered the fumbling thing rather eloquently (below). And a similar response can be made about his missed layups and lack of dunking, since Z is shooting 65% from the field this year (and shot close to 60% in each of the last two years).

    Quote Originally Posted by Tim1515 View Post
    I agree...Z looks clumsy at times and loses a few rebounds it seems other people would get...but the fact he's putting up good numbers despite those "mistakes" means he's getting his hands on more rebounds then everyone else to begin with.
    Exactly.

    I'm not trying to say Z is a superstar or anything, but I find it tiring to hear the same old myths about him repeated over and over (e.g., fumbled rebounds, missed layups, etc.).

    Now I will attempt to stop repeating myself.

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Except Z's plus/minus numbers refute the idea that his fouls have a negative impact.



    Tim1515 answered the fumbling thing rather eloquently (below). And a similar response can be made about his missed layups and lack of dunking, since Z is shooting 65% from the field this year (and shot close to 60% in each of the last two years).



    Exactly.

    I'm not trying to say Z is a superstar or anything, but I find it tiring to hear the same old myths about him repeated over and over (e.g., fumbled rebounds, missed layups, etc.).

    Now I will attempt to stop repeating myself.
    I agree with what you say but would like to point out that you are wasting your time. Do not try to confuse the nay sayers with the facts. Zoubek loses every rebound to the 6'2" guys or fumbles them out of bounds regardless of the facts. He also is a foul a minute regardless of what the stats show. Don't you get it? He is over 7 feet tall and should get every rebound with no excuses since he is taller than every one else. it also doesn't count when he makes a lay up because at 7 feet he should be dunking every time he touches the ball.

  13. #53

    Wowww...lots of thoughts on Z

    Might as well throw my two cents in.

    What I think we have here is a player for which the coaches must find what optimal role he can have both for the team and individually. Unfortunately, Z has had to also deal with some injuries but I think the staff has finally found what should be Z's ideal niche. This developing role of Z coming off the bench due to quality front court depth the team has not had in a while allows Z to provide them "quality" 15-18 minutes a game. What comes of it once we fact better competition on a regular basis remains to be seen. However, no longer does he have to pace himself to try to stay on the court nor have the pressure to do so. In addition, it appears Z has grown more into his body though there still seems to be that awkwardness that always seems to hinder at some point. Matchups will play a great role in his affectiveness also but if "we" as fans can temper our expectations and realize what we have here is a solid bench, borderline starter in Z that given his current role can produce a solid 15 minutes a game, then we can all be content in Z's contributions and get along here

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Except Z's plus/minus numbers refute the idea that his fouls have a negative impact.
    Unfortunately this isn't true. Plus/minus numbers show the impact a player has on the team while he is on the floor, however once a player leaves the floor, say for a breather or in Brian's case after he's picked up 3 quick fouls, the remaining players (the team) are left to suffer the consequences.

    The opposition gets to the bonus situation faster than it normally would have and that can have a dramatic effect on the game especially in close situations.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    Unfortunately this isn't true. Plus/minus numbers show the impact a player has on the team while he is on the floor, however once a player leaves the floor, say for a breather or in Brian's case after he's picked up 3 quick fouls, the remaining players (the team) are left to suffer the consequences.

    The opposition gets to the bonus situation faster than it normally would have and that can have a dramatic effect on the game especially in close situations.
    These are both reasonable points. I would argue that this year the impact of your first point will be minimized because we have so many fine alternatives in the frontcourt.

  16. #56
    I'm really not sure why people are negative with Z right now. Yes we haven't played great competition recently but he's having the best stretch of his career now that he's healthy. Duke will see its fair share of close games and maybe we'll get a better representation of how much Z improved.

    It could very well be that Miles becomes the one who's fouls "hurt the team" and Z who comes in to help during important minutes.

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    I don't disagree with any of your post, I just dislike that many people assume they know what Lance's and Z's "ceilings" are because they have seen them play the most. I tend to believe that players can still improve between their junior and senior years and during their senior years. That is something I really enjoy about college basketball; watching the players improve.
    I did not say that Brian has reached his "ceiling" and can no longer make significant improvement. In fact, my own view is quite the contrary in Brian's case.

    I do think Miles's potential appears higher than Z's and that Mason's seems higher than Miles's. That assessment admittedly is based on a very limited foundation of observations in the case of Miles and Mason, but time will tell.

    I think Brian still has substantial room for development as a basketball player for a number of reasons.

    Keep in mind he is relatively young for his class compared to many athletes. Remember, Brian matriculated at Duke when he was only 17. Lots of athletes these days start college older than that - if I recall correctly Hansborough was about 35 years old when he arrived at UNC. And some people simply develop physically later than others of the same age.

    This is the first year (because of injuries or whatever) that it seems to me that Brian has made great strides in his physical development in the offseason. He looks like he has significantly reduced his body fat and at the same time become stronger. What he did this year is what he needed to do in past years as well.

    We all love to bench press, but for a basketball player, squats, plyos, sprints and agility training are much more important. As a young guy who only this past off-season was in a position to fully work on these, Brian, I think, still has much scope for improvement from this kind of work. He has good leg strength in terms of holding his ground, but not so good in terms of jumping. Because he is still a relatively young guy Brian can still, IMO, gain some improvement in his vertical leap through training.

    Brian is a very intelligent individual. As the basics of playing basketball become more instinctual to him, he can turn his mind to improving at a higher level of sophistication and craftiness.

    Call me crazy, but if Brian stays healthy I would not exclude a possible future in which after a couple of years playing pro ball in, say, Europe, he surprises everyone by how good a basketball player he develops into.

  18. #58
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    Where are we getting this idea that Zoubek can only play a few minutes without fouling out?

    In his first three seasons at Duke, Brian Zoubek fouled out of exactly two games. He played 924 minutes and committed 151 fouls. That would, on average, enable him to play just over 30 minutes before accumulating five fouls.

    That's not ideal but it's a far cry from the caricatures being presented here.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Genedoc View Post
    You're welcome to appreciate whatever you like, but the foul stats cannot be ignored. They're the statistics that if accrued rapidly enough will disqualify the player from the remainder of the game. If you're getting 3-4 fouls per 15 minutes of game time, that renders the extrapolations this argument was based upon moot.
    This thread began with the idea that Z could be putting up frankly astounding numbers were he to play Miles or LTīs minutes, roughly 22.5mpg, rather than the 15+ he is averaging now. As such, he would average pretty close to 5 fouls per game. As such it is not ridiculous to extrapolate his numbers to that level of PT because that would statistically be very nearly exactly the limit imposed by foul trouble that he could be on the court.

    I am very pleased to read that Z has gotten quite a bit of support from Duke fans on this board, I have been a big Z fan and appreciate what he gives to this team. Z may be clumsy but he is effective. He may not dunk the bejeebus out of the ball every time he even thinks of touching it, but he shoots over 65% from the floor (FT shooting not so much) and grabs lots of rebounds despite the fact that some of them get away.

    If Z finds himself reading these posts, what would be his take-away image? Our duty as fans is to make sure that his response would be positive, perhaps even encouraging him to improve on things or think of things in ways he hadnīt before. GO Z!!! GO DUKE!!!

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldSchool View Post
    I did not say that Brian has reached his "ceiling" and can no longer make significant improvement. In fact, my own view is quite the contrary in Brian's case.
    I again agree with most, if not all, of this post. Sorry, I wasn't more clear in my earlier post. I didn't think you referred negatively to Brian having a ceiling, but seeing that word in your post made me think of other posts I have seen referring to Brian and Lance that way. My other pet peeve is "they are what they are," as I certainly haven't given up on seeing more improvement from them and think that any starters from a 30 win team obviously contributed. I agree with what you have said above about Mason and Miles perhaps more likely to have great improvements and that Brian also can still improve.
    Last edited by NSDukeFan; 11-24-2009 at 04:36 PM. Reason: added another pet peeve

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