Scheyer Stats

[JasonEvans]

2000 career points is a big deal. It represents continued excellence on the basketball court over pretty much your entire career. It takes a real stud scorer to get there in 3 years and generally is only achieved by players who not only play 4 seasons but who were strong enough as a freshman to give them a shot at it in their later seasons.

At Duke the list of 2000 point scorers is tremendously impressive. The list of guys who came up just short include studs like Art Heyman and Shane Battier (1984), Trajan Langdon (1974), Shelden Williams (1928), and Grant Hill (1924). The list of guys who got there is not long. I may be wrong, but near as I can tell it includes on 9 names-- Redick, Dawkins, Laettner, Gminski, Ferry, Alarie, Banks, JWill, and Spanarkel.

Coming into this season, Jon Scheyer had 1349 points scored in his career. That puts him 651 points shy of the very significant 2000 point barrier. Can he make it?

He has averaged a career best 16.5 ppg so far this season through 4 games. That gives him another 66 points. So, he needs to 585 more points.

How many games does Duke have left? We've got 27 in the regular season, 1-3 in the ACC tournament, and then however many more we get in (hopefully) the NCAA tourney. The number remaining is likely to be something in the low-mid 30s. Lets see what Scheyer would need to average to get to 2000 points based on how many games Duke has remaining.

Games   PPG
27	21.67
28	20.89
29	20.17
30	19.50
31	18.87
32	18.28
33	17.73
34	17.21
35	16.71
36	16.25

It may be a tall order for Jon to get there, but it is not impossible, especially if Duke make a nice long run in the post-season.

--Jason "Singler will make it fairly easily if he comes back for his senior year, but I don't think he has a chance to make it this year" Evans

[ncexnyc]

I'm doubtful that he reaches the mark and I base this on the fact that Jon isn't the focus of our offense.

From what I've seen so far, it appears that Nolan and Kyle will be our leading scorers this year and that leaves Jon with fewer chances in my mind.

[rskale7]

Would I like to see that? Yes. Do I think it will happen, maybe. Right now the scoring looks spread around. Jon may not make it.

[flyingdutchdevil]

In all honesty, I don't see Scheyer making to 2,000 for a few reasons: first, he isn't the focal point of the offense. At Midnight Madness, K even said that Singler and Smith were going to be the 1st and 2nd options, not Scheyer. Second, I would be surprised - content, but surprised - if Scheyer kept up this scoring. With a ton of scoring options this year, that means that averages will generally go down. Also, with tougher defenses, we won't be scoring 100+ points in a game.

I think UCONN is a really good test for Jon. If he can dish out assists and still score 16+ points, then I really think that Scheyer can hit that mark. As of now, I'm a little skeptical.

[sagegrouse]

John should average around 14-15 PPG, continuing his role as the distributor of the ball to Kyle, Nolan, Andre and the big dudes in the middle.

If he were to average much higher, it would be a very bad sign about the offense -- injuries or bad play elsewhere on the team.

sagegrouse

[Jumbo]

John should average around 14-15 PPG, continuing his role as the distributor of the ball to Kyle, Nolan, Andre and the big dudes in the middle.

If he were to average much higher, it would be a very bad sign about the offense -- injuries or bad play elsewhere on the team.

sagegrouse

Just wondering if it was a bad sign for the offense last year when he averaged 18.2 ppg during that 10-2 finish to the season ...

[sagegrouse]

Just wondering if it was a bad sign for the offense last year when he averaged 18.2 ppg during that 10-2 finish to the season ...

Good point, Jumbo. But that was also Jon Scheyer rebounding from a horrible period of poor shooting.

The reason I don't think he will be a high scorer (18-20 PPG) are the contributions from the big dudes down low. I expect 35 PPG from the big guys (really: I hope, I hope). The four bigs last year had only 10 PPG last year.

Year to date and against weak opposition our five bigs (Zoubs, KT, MP1, Kelly and Czyz) are averaging 35.4 PPG. That will probably go down when the opposition improves. (IIRC Zoubs had 20 in his freshman debut against Columbia.) But, MP2 will also contribute his share when he returns.

My "I hope, I hope" is as follows:

• MP1 - 10
• MP2 - 10
• Everyone else - 15

In that scenario, 13-15 for Jon Scheyer is just about right. And he could have a huge number of assists.

sagegrouse
'How the heck did we win 30 games last year with such a feeble inside game? Hmmm... Maybe the coaching is pretty good here.'

[shoutingncu]

John should average around 14-15 PPG... sagegrouse

The "h" is silent, right?

[JasonEvans]

Just so we are clear, plenty of you seem to doubt that Jon Scheyer will average even 15 ppg this season. Are you folks aware that he averaged 14.9 ppg last year and that was with the Duke offense revolving so much around Gerald Henderson. I just have a hard time seeing Jon averaging less points this year than he did last year.

I realize that 2K is a longshot for him. The odds are he will not get all the way up to 17+ ppg and that means we would need to make the ACC Finals and the Final Four for him to get to 2000. But, I am sure as heck going to be rooting for it.

Reaching 2K is a really rare thing in college basketball. While it is not nearly one of the more important things to root for regarding Duke this season, it is worth keeping an eye upon.

--Jason "not since JJ have we had one... and if Singler does not return it could be a long time until we get another one" Evans

[Bob Green]

I realize that 2K is a longshot for him...But, I am sure as heck going to be rooting for it.

Reaching 2K is a really rare thing in college basketball. While it is not nearly one of the more important things to root for regarding Duke this season, it is worth keeping an eye upon.

I'll be right beside you rooting for Jon. I think it is very important for all Duke fans to cheer for Jon to reach the 2000 point milestone because the closer he gets the better the chances Duke is still playing in April.

And while I am a huge proponent of the "enjoy the ride" approach to being a fan, ultimately, playing in April is the goal.

[YourLandlord]

Just so we are clear, plenty of you seem to doubt that Jon Scheyer will average even 15 ppg this season. Are you folks aware that he averaged 14.9 ppg last year and that was with the Duke offense revolving so much around Gerald Henderson. I just have a hard time seeing Jon averaging less points this year than he did last year.

But who else were our options last year? It's not like Gerald was putting up 50 a game. Scheyer, et al., had to score.

This year Singler and Smith will score a lot, AND we finally have a big inside game. 15 ppg is a lot of points.

The Duke offense that "revolved" around Gerald ended up with him averaging only 16.5.

[Wander]

Just so we are clear, plenty of you seem to doubt that Jon Scheyer will average even 15 ppg this season.

The difference between 15 and 17 is actually quite a bit over a long season, and it makes the subject kind of difficult to discuss intuitively. I'm not sure, but there might not be a single team from the NCAA tournament last year who had their second leading scorer averaging 17 ppg (as I mentioned earlier, there's definitely no teams that made the Elite 8). Think about that for a moment...

I'm not completely guaranteeing he won't reach 2000, but it's really, really, really, really unlikely (but, Jumbo, I'm like 99.5% willing to guarantee that Scheyer does not average 18 ppg or more). I'm also not saying he won't be relatively close - off the top of my head, seems like 1900 or so would be a fair number to do an over/under on.

Of course, none of this is criticism of his play. He's been spectacular.

[mapei]

At worst, Jon is the second best player on this team, and I'm not positive he isn't the best. But I thnk 2000 points is highly unlikely, given all the factors people have noted. Also, Duke's scoring is going to go down as the season progresses and we face tougher defenses.

[phaedrus]

The difference between 15 and 17 is actually quite a bit over a long season, and it makes the subject kind of difficult to discuss intuitively. I'm not sure, but there might not be a single team from the NCAA tournament last year who had their second leading scorer averaging 17 ppg (as I mentioned earlier, there's definitely no teams that made the Elite 8). Think about that for a moment...

I'm not completely guaranteeing he won't reach 2000, but it's really, really, really, really unlikely (but, Jumbo, I'm like 99.5% willing to guarantee that Scheyer does not average 18 ppg or more). I'm also not saying he won't be relatively close - off the top of my head, seems like 1900 or so would be a fair number to do an over/under on.

Of course, none of this is criticism of his play. He's been spectacular.

Of course, Shelden Williams was once our second-leading scorer with 18.8 points per game, and only 2 players on our current roster have ever averaged more than 8.4 ppg. Further, I don't know why everyone is treating Jon's 18.2 ppg average over the last 12 games of last season as a fluke. It wasn't. That was the toughest stretch of our schedule.

That said, Nolan should of course substantially top 8.4 ppg this season, and we should have better all-around scoring than the 05-06 team. I would pencil Jon in at 16-17 ppg, but would not be surprised at all to see 18 out of him.

[YourLandlord]

I would pencil Jon in at 16-17 ppg, but would not be surprised at all to see 18 out of him.

This is really just silly.

# of '08-'09 ACC players who averaged above the following # of points:
18: 6
17: 8
16: 11

There are 12 teams in the conference. On average, less than 1 player per team averaged 16 points for the year.

With a team with as many scoring options as Duke has this year, outside AND inside, "penciling in" Jon for 16 points a game (your lower bound!) doesn't make any sense.

I think 12-14 points per game, with a good number of assists, would be a great great season for him and for Duke.

[Jumbo]

This is really just silly.

# of '08-'09 ACC players who averaged above the following # of points:
18: 6
17: 8
16: 11

There are 12 teams in the conference. On average, less than 1 player per team averaged 16 points for the year.

With a team with as many scoring options as Duke has this year, outside AND inside, "penciling in" Jon for 16 points a game (your lower bound!) doesn't make any sense.

I think 12-14 points per game, with a good number of assists, would be a great great season for him and for Duke.

I don't see how it is "silly" when Jon averaged 15 ppg last season, including 18.2 over that final, 12-game stretch, on a team that included Gerald Henderson. Unlikely? Maybe. Silly? Not at all. If he were to average only 12 ppg this season, I'm sure he and Coach K would be disappointed. And Duke would not be successful. I'm not sure why some people don't recognize a) how good he is and has been and b) that he needs to be a major scoring threat for this team.

[phaedrus]

With a team with as many scoring options as Duke has this year, outside AND inside...

Come again? We have some exciting new players, but it's going to take more than early-season games to show that the likes of Dawkins, Kelly, and the Plumlees have earned enough scoring opportunities to (a) entirely compensate for the loss of Henderson and (b) take away scoring opportunities from the team's highest career scorer, Scheyer.

Let's not forget that we might, indeed, score even more than last year's team. And I can't even contemplate why you think it's silly to think that a senior Jon Scheyer might be one of the 11 highest scorers in the conference.

[Jumbo]

Come again? We have some exciting new players, but it's going to take more than early-season games to show that the likes of Dawkins, Kelly, and the Plumlees have earned enough scoring opportunities to (a) entirely compensate for the loss of Henderson and (b) take away scoring opportunities from the team's highest career scorer, Scheyer.

Let's not forget that we might, indeed, score even more than last year's team. And I can't even contemplate why you think it's silly to think that a senior Jon Scheyer might be one of the 11 highest scorers in the conference.

Good to have you back -- haven't seen any posts from you in a while.

[camion]

The "h" is silent, right?

It's not just silent. It's odorless and colorless as well.

[kmspeaks]

It's not just silent. It's odorless and colorless as well.

Not to mention deadly