2000 career points is a big deal. It represents continued excellence on the basketball court over pretty much your entire career. It takes a real stud scorer to get there in 3 years and generally is only achieved by players who not only play 4 seasons but who were strong enough as a freshman to give them a shot at it in their later seasons.
At Duke the list of 2000 point scorers is tremendously impressive. The list of guys who came up just short include studs like Art Heyman and Shane Battier (1984), Trajan Langdon (1974), Shelden Williams (1928), and Grant Hill (1924). The list of guys who got there is not long. I may be wrong, but near as I can tell it includes on 9 names-- Redick, Dawkins, Laettner, Gminski, Ferry, Alarie, Banks, JWill, and Spanarkel.
Coming into this season, Jon Scheyer had 1349 points scored in his career. That puts him 651 points shy of the very significant 2000 point barrier. Can he make it?
He has averaged a career best 16.5 ppg so far this season through 4 games. That gives him another 66 points. So, he needs to 585 more points.
How many games does Duke have left? We've got 27 in the regular season, 1-3 in the ACC tournament, and then however many more we get in (hopefully) the NCAA tourney. The number remaining is likely to be something in the low-mid 30s. Lets see what Scheyer would need to average to get to 2000 points based on how many games Duke has remaining.
It may be a tall order for Jon to get there, but it is not impossible, especially if Duke make a nice long run in the post-season.Code:Games PPG 27 21.67 28 20.89 29 20.17 30 19.50 31 18.87 32 18.28 33 17.73 34 17.21 35 16.71 36 16.25
--Jason "Singler will make it fairly easily if he comes back for his senior year, but I don't think he has a chance to make it this year" Evans
I'm doubtful that he reaches the mark and I base this on the fact that Jon isn't the focus of our offense.
From what I've seen so far, it appears that Nolan and Kyle will be our leading scorers this year and that leaves Jon with fewer chances in my mind.
Regarding Singler, he had 1060 points after his first 2 seasons at Duke. Very impressive. He has scored another 73 points so far this season by averaging a career best 18.3 ppg over our first 4 games. That puts him at 1133, 867 points shy of 2000.
But, here is why the 2000 point barrier is so hard to get to in 3 seasons. Here is what Kyle would need to average to get there based on the 27-36 game season Duke will have this year:
Considering we have played 4 fairly easy opponents and Kyle is only at 18.3 ppg, I think expecting him to score in the 25 ppg range the rest of the season may be a bit much.Code:Games PPG 27 32.11 28 30.96 29 29.90 30 28.90 31 27.97 32 27.09 33 26.27 34 25.50 35 24.77 36 24.08
I see this as yet one more reason he should come back for his senior campaign He would likely put himself somewhere between Ferry (2155) and Gminski (2323) and be something like the 5th highest scorer in Duke history. Very impressive!!
--Jason "2000 point scorers are so rare because you have to be darn good early in your career but stay all 4 years... that does not happen much anymore" Evans
Would I like to see that? Yes. Do I think it will happen, maybe. Right now the scoring looks spread around. Jon may not make it.
In all honesty, I don't see Scheyer making to 2,000 for a few reasons: first, he isn't the focal point of the offense. At Midnight Madness, K even said that Singler and Smith were going to be the 1st and 2nd options, not Scheyer. Second, I would be surprised - content, but surprised - if Scheyer kept up this scoring. With a ton of scoring options this year, that means that averages will generally go down. Also, with tougher defenses, we won't be scoring 100+ points in a game.
I think UCONN is a really good test for Jon. If he can dish out assists and still score 16+ points, then I really think that Scheyer can hit that mark. As of now, I'm a little skeptical.
John should average around 14-15 PPG, continuing his role as the distributor of the ball to Kyle, Nolan, Andre and the big dudes in the middle.
If he were to average much higher, it would be a very bad sign about the offense -- injuries or bad play elsewhere on the team.
In short, I don't see any reason why he can't average at least 18 for a full season -- he's a terrific player, either 1 or 1A for Duke and extremely valuable as a scorer. And given that I think he can score at that rate AND that Duke is poised to make a deep run, he has a strong chance to reach that 2,000-point mark.
The last Duke player to average 18 points or more was JJ. I just don't see Scheyer averaging that many points - our offense is much more diverse now than it has been in a long time - that leads to lower point averages for everyone. That is better than a few scorers dominating the scoring (which was the trend since '04). Let's just say that given Scheyer's position, his physical limitations, and the balanced offense, I feel that him achieving 18ppg would be a pleasant surprise.
Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill
President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club
Nice try, Jason.
"2K" may be the shortest title in the history of the Main Board, but it's still twice as long as "V".
Oh, and Scheyer would probably rather stay locked at 1,999 points and pass the ball to a teammate with a better shot, if it came to that. Any chance he sets some kind of points/assists record, though? Like, the first to score X number of points and Y number of assists? Not really sure where Jay Williams and (maybe) Grant Hill fit on that list.
Interesting topic ...
Jason Williams is the only player in Duke history to reach 2,000 points in three seasons (2,079).
None of the other eight 2,000-point scorers would have made it without their fourth year. Well, the top three scorers (Redick, Dawkins, Laettner) all topped 2,000 in their last three seasons -- so if they had played in the non-freshman era, they might have made it.
Heyman missed by 16 points -- and he was suspended for three games in 1961 when he had the termerity to fight back when he was assaulted by Larry Brown and Donnie Wlash. He should have done it ... interesting that both Heyman and Battier scored 1,984 points in their careers -- Art did it in 79 games, Shane did it in 146 games.
In ACC history, the only seven players to get 2,000 points in their first three varsity seasons are:
David Thompson (2,309)
Buzzy Wilkerson (2,233)
Tyler Hansbrough (2,168) -- he added 704 as a senior for 2,872
Len Chappell (2,165)
Dennis Scott (2,115)
Len Rosenbluth (2,045)
Jason Williams (2,079)
Charlie Scott (2,007)
I'd be shocked if Scheyer gets there this season. Same with Singler -- he comes back as a senior and barring injury, he's a lock.
I'd be really surprised if Jon hits 2000 points. Let's be just a little on the generous side and say that Duke wins the ACC tourney (or loses in the finals) and goes to the Elite 8 - according to JE, Scheyer needs to average more than 17 points per game to make it there. That's a lot out of your second best player for a team that doesn't figure to fast break a ton and looks to have a fairly balanced scoring attack.
Consider that last year every Elite 8 team had their 2nd leading scorer under 17 points per game. This includes UNC, who played faster than we will this year, and Oklahoma, who was more of a two-man team offensively than we will be this year.
Not impossible, but I'd feel pretty comfortable putting money on Scheyer not reaching 2000 points.
I doubt Jon or anybody playing for this unselfish (as Coach K referred to them) team cares about who is scoring the points. The team cares about winning, getting better, and making a deep run in March. If Jon scores no points, but is running the team with the precision of a scalpel that is what is important. I am so excited. I am starting to fall for this team. Granted, it has some holes and is thin, thin, thin at the guard spot, but oh my are they fun to watch. I think they are even having fun playing. Lots of recent Duke teams seemed, to me, a bit stiff and not showing much fun playing hoops with one another. This is a game and it is meant to be fun. Losing is no fun, but playing should be.
The reason I don't think he will be a high scorer (18-20 PPG) are the contributions from the big dudes down low. I expect 35 PPG from the big guys (really: I hope, I hope). The four bigs last year had only 10 PPG last year.
Year to date and against weak opposition our five bigs (Zoubs, KT, MP1, Kelly and Czyz) are averaging 35.4 PPG. That will probably go down when the opposition improves. (IIRC Zoubs had 20 in his freshman debut against Columbia.) But, MP2 will also contribute his share when he returns.
My "I hope, I hope" is as follows:
- MP1 - 10
- MP2 - 10
- Everyone else - 15
In that scenario, 13-15 for Jon Scheyer is just about right. And he could have a huge number of assists.
'How the heck did we win 30 games last year with such a feeble inside game? Hmmm.... Maybe the coaching is pretty good here.'
Just so we are clear, plenty of you seem to doubt that Jon Scheyer will average even 15 ppg this season. Are you folks aware that he averaged 14.9 ppg last year and that was with the Duke offense revolving so much around Gerald Henderson. I just have a hard time seeing Jon averaging less points this year than he did last year.
I realize that 2K is a longshot for him. The odds are he will not get all the way up to 17+ ppg and that means we would need to make the ACC Finals and the Final Four for him to get to 2000. But, I am sure as heck going to be rooting for it.
Reaching 2K is a really rare thing in college basketball. While it is not nearly one of the more important things to root for regarding Duke this season, it is worth keeping an eye upon.
--Jason "not since JJ have we had one... and if Singler does not return it could be a long time until we get another one" Evans
And while I am a huge proponent of the "enjoy the ride" approach to being a fan, ultimately, playing in April is the goal.
United States Navy (Retired)
This year Singler and Smith will score a lot, AND we finally have a big inside game. 15 ppg is a lot of points.
The Duke offense that "revolved" around Gerald ended up with him averaging only 16.5.