I am going to disagree with all those people who think it was a horrible call. Here's why. On the previous drive, Manning shredded the Pats defense for an easy TD in less than 2 minutes. Now maybe they were playing a little prevent because they were up by 13, but they looked completely gassed. If you punt there on 4th and 2 on your own 28, you are probably giving Manning the ball on his own 30-35 with two minutes left, and four timeouts (including the 2 minute warning), and your defense has had about 5 minutes to rest. What are the odds that Indy takes the ball 70 yards and scores a TD in that time? I'd day it's around 50-50. The odds of making a 4th and 2 are probably around the same. If you make it, the game is over. And if you don't make it, Indy still has to go 30 yards and score a TD. Just seeing how easily they scored that TD shows that it might have been better than 50-50 that Indy scores from their own 35. I think Belichick realized his defense couldn't stop them and decided to gamble on winning it on offense rather than defense, he just lost the gamble. Punting would have been the safe, "media-friendly" call, but I think it was the right play percentages-wise.
Here's another way to look at it.
GO FOR IT:
Make it (.5 chance) -- win 100%
Don't make it (.5 chance) -- win 20%
Total odds of winning 60%
PUNT
Total odds of winning: 50%
60% > 50%. You can argue with the odds/percentages I assumed here, but I am sure that's the way Belichick was thinking of it.
Last edited by mr. synellinden; 11-16-2009 at 10:54 AM.
Reason: typos
Singler is IRON
I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013