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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh

    How Bout Dem Patriots??

    hahahahaha....belicheat loses the game for them...(or at least made it easier for the colts...peyton may well have stabbed them in the heart regardless of the field position)

    thanks bill..

    man...that was savory...

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    First of all, I did not see it live, but on Sportscenter it looked like they got a horrible spot of the ball. It looked to me like they had the first down.

    But, that is almost irrelevant. Going for it on 4th down at that point is just crazy. It is not like Indy only needed to drive for a FG to win. They needed a TD!! That showed zero confidence in your defense to get the job done. You could have put Manning back on his own 20 or 30 instead of on your 20. Wow... just wow.

    --Jason "what a gift for Indy" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  3. #3
    As a pats fan, I'm in pain this am as the loss eliminated any real chance of home field throughout the playoffs and made getting a first round bye even more difficult. My solace, however, is the fact that the pats outplayed indy for 58 minutes and Brady continues to look more and more like 07 Brady...I don't think the Pats will be scared to go to Indy in January if it plays out that way...

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    First of all, I did not see it live, but on Sportscenter it looked like they got a horrible spot of the ball. It looked to me like they had the first down.

    But, that is almost irrelevant. Going for it on 4th down at that point is just crazy. It is not like Indy only needed to drive for a FG to win. They needed a TD!! That showed zero confidence in your defense to get the job done. You could have put Manning back on his own 20 or 30 instead of on your 20. Wow... just wow.

    --Jason "what a gift for Indy" Evans
    I think the official ruling was that Kevin Faulk did not get his forward progress because he did not have possession throughout the forward progress. Since NE blew their timeouts earlier, they couldnt challenge the play.
    My Quick Smells Like French Toast.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    First of all, I did not see it live, but on Sportscenter it looked like they got a horrible spot of the ball. It looked to me like they had the first down.
    It was a first down.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    But, that is almost irrelevant. Going for it on 4th down at that point is just crazy. It is not like Indy only needed to drive for a FG to win. They needed a TD!! That showed zero confidence in your defense to get the job done. You could have put Manning back on his own 20 or 30 instead of on your 20. Wow... just wow.

    --Jason "what a gift for Indy" Evans
    If you had watched the game, the 2 previous drives the Colts shredded the Patriots gassed defense for touchdowns on 79 yard drives, each of which took under three minutes.

    If the Patriots punted, the odds the Colts scored at TD, with all their timeouts and the two minute warning, were very high.

    Essentially, it boiled down to this: which of these has the highest probability?
    a) The Patriots, who had gained 450 yards to that point, had to gain a yard and a half to win the game. Probability -- 60%? 70%?
    b) The Patriots stop the Colts from scoring a TD, given the Colts had just scored 2 TDs at will in almost no time (well, one of them with a gift pass interference call, which should be expected anytime the Colts play at home and are down late against the Pats.) Probability -- 30%? 40%?

    The odds the Patriots gained a yard and a half were much higher than the odds they could stop the Colts from scoring.

    PLUS, even IF they failed to convert the 4th -- as you said Jason, the Colts still had to score a touchdown, and go 30 yards to do it. This only supports the decision to go for it on 4th down.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by steven52682 View Post
    I think the official ruling was that Kevin Faulk did not get his forward progress because he did not have possession throughout the forward progress. Since NE blew their timeouts earlier, they couldnt challenge the play.
    This was the ruling, but in replays after it appeared he bobbled once, then got firm grasp -- and when he had firm grasp, he was still past the 30.

    The ref that called the bobble was actually behind Faulk's (and the defender's) back, so there is no way he could have determined when he stopped bobbling.

    Essentially, the game was a blowout for 3+ quarters, and should have been an even larger one (fumbles in the endzone, etc.). EVERYTHING had to go wrong for the Patriots to lose that game -- if one thing didn't happen, they would have won. This is the same as the '07 Super Bowl -- EVERYTHING had to go right for the Giants to score on their final drive, when the Patriots had half a dozen chances to sack the QB and intercept a pass.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    I am going to disagree with all those people who think it was a horrible call. Here's why. On the previous drive, Manning shredded the Pats defense for an easy TD in less than 2 minutes. Now maybe they were playing a little prevent because they were up by 13, but they looked completely gassed. If you punt there on 4th and 2 on your own 28, you are probably giving Manning the ball on his own 30-35 with two minutes left, and four timeouts (including the 2 minute warning), and your defense has had about 5 minutes to rest. What are the odds that Indy takes the ball 70 yards and scores a TD in that time? I'd day it's around 50-50. The odds of making a 4th and 2 are probably around the same. If you make it, the game is over. And if you don't make it, Indy still has to go 30 yards and score a TD. Just seeing how easily they scored that TD shows that it might have been better than 50-50 that Indy scores from their own 35. I think Belichick realized his defense couldn't stop them and decided to gamble on winning it on offense rather than defense, he just lost the gamble. Punting would have been the safe, "media-friendly" call, but I think it was the right play percentages-wise.

    Here's another way to look at it.

    GO FOR IT:

    Make it (.5 chance) -- win 100%

    Don't make it (.5 chance) -- win 20%

    Total odds of winning 60%

    PUNT

    Total odds of winning: 50%

    60% > 50%. You can argue with the odds/percentages I assumed here, but I am sure that's the way Belichick was thinking of it.
    Last edited by mr. synellinden; 11-16-2009 at 10:54 AM. Reason: typos
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington DC
    Going for in on fourth and 2 was the football equivalent of walking a batter with the bases loaded - they figured the only chance to win was to not let Manning touch the ball again. It was crazy to watch. As a neutral observer I do think they got a bad spot, but where the ball should have been was right on the marker, so would have been 50/50 where the chain actually ended up. The crazy thing is the Pats blew 2 timeouts on that drive, one right after the kickoff which you never see, so they could not even challenge. Although, it's interesting that Belicheck will take the heat for the loss, and not the Pats defense which could not keep Indy out of the endzone in the fourth quarter.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by YourLandlord View Post
    This is the same as the '07 Super Bowl -- EVERYTHING had to go right for the Giants to score on their final drive, when the Patriots had half a dozen chances to sack the QB and intercept a pass.
    How is that different from any other game-winning drive?

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    How is that different from any other game-winning drive?
    If you re-watch the last drive, there were a stunning number of near-sacks, near-interceptions. Plus, that goofy helmet-catch, which I would say differentiates it from all other game-winning drives.

  11. #11
    Adding some statistics into the mix,

    A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

    Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.
    http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...-vs-colts.html

    Is Coach B getting skewered for the call by the national media? Sure. But that's because people are wimps. Plus, they're the same people that vote Derek Jeter 4 Gold Gloves. Buncha mental lightweights.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by YourLandlord View Post
    Is Coach B getting skewered for the call by the national media? Sure. But that's because people are wimps. Plus, they're the same people that vote Derek Jeter 4 Gold Gloves. Buncha mental lightweights.
    I get tired of hearing this mistaken criticism of the Gold Glove Award. Media types did not give Jeter his four Gold Gloves -- the managers are the gold glove voters (since 1965):

    http://www.baseball-statistics.com/A...Gold-Glove.htm

    Not saying that Jeter deserved his gold gloves, but the "mental lightweights" who gave him his four Gold Gloves are the baseball equivilents to Belicheater, NOT the "wimps" in the media.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Thanks guys, I have now forgiven Belichick. Please disregard my latest post in the LTE. I suspect, even with the loss, the Pats aren't afraid of meeting Indy in the playoffs. Now, I'll just have to root for a couple of teams to beat Cincinnati and/or Indy.

    I miss Mike Vrabel.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    How is that different from any other game-winning drive?
    I take nothing away from the Giants as they won the game and deserved to win the game but their final drive was one of the luckiest drives I've ever seen. Between Samuel dropping an easy interception, to Manning escaping from the grasp, to Tyree making one of the most unbelievable catches in SB history...Almost every other game winning drive goes more smoothly than that one..

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by bluebear View Post
    I take nothing away from the Giants as they won the game and deserved to win the game but their final drive was one of the luckiest drives I've ever seen. Between Samuel dropping an easy interception, to Manning escaping from the grasp, to Tyree making one of the most unbelievable catches in SB history...Almost every other game winning drive goes more smoothly than that one..
    Sounds like they weren't all that lucky. A really lucky team would have scored easily.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    I don't hate the Giants but I will admit, since that day, I take great satisfaction in watching them lose. (I hope Sue doesn't read this thread )

    Prediction: Eli Manning will never lead another team to the Super Bowl.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Sounds like they weren't all that lucky. A really lucky team would have scored easily.
    uhh...or not

  18. #18
    I love hearing Boston fans talk about that Super Bowl... brings a smile to my face to this day.

    I definitely agree that it wasn't a bad call to go for it there. I think in general coaches make the "safe" call way too often. Conventional wisdom isn't always right. I don't see it as not having faith in the defense, but instead having a lot of faith in the offense (well, mainly Brady). Obviously it didn't work out but it's reasonably likely that it wouldn't have worked out punting the ball either.

  19. #19
    I think Belichick's defenders here are probably right from a numbers perspective. The chances of Manning going 35 yards for the win weren't that much higher than the chances of going 70 at that point. Conversely, you've got an 80% chance of ending it with the first down.

    The thing that mattered to me here was the change in mentality that had to have occurred for Belichick to run the odds that way: for him to acknowledge his defense would not be able to stop the Colts offense in a game on the line two minute drive situation, regardless of field position, is a new thing for this rivalry. So, yes, New England may not fear going to Indy for an AFC Championship game, but perhaps they should. As was noted at halftime, the Colts young receivers haven't played like rookies until the first half last night. And Manning had some uncharacteristic bad throws/decisions, while Brady and Moss were about as good as they can be from start to finish. But once the Colts started clicking, they were pretty much unstoppable.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Mal View Post
    So, yes, New England may not fear going to Indy for an AFC Championship game, but perhaps they should.
    They absolutely should. If I recall correctly, Indy has only lost one game in the past year or so -- last year's playoff game in San Diego. And they only lost that because San Diego had the ball last (the first overtime possession). Not to mention the fact that San Diego matches up pretty well against Indy. I'm not sure who else has as good a record against Indy in recent years, but it sure isn't the Pats.

    I don't think that anybody wants to go through Indy this year in order to get to the Super Bowl.

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