Coach K's total wins and challengers

[JasonEvans]

Harrison coming to Duke will ensure Coach K will be the winningest Coach ever.

Ummm, while Harrison is a nice recruit, I don't think his presence alone will have much of an impact on K's final coaching record. Sure, he might be worth some extra wins, but K is likely to smash Knight's record by such a large margin that 10 or so extra wins are not going to make all that much of a difference.

He is 40+ wins behind Coach Knight, and this year's team will win around 30.

If by 40+ you mean 69, then you are correct. I believe K has 833 career wins while Knight is career leader at 902. It would make me quite happy if K could bust through Knight's record in the next 2 seasons.

We know Coach K will be at the helm for at least as long Kyrie and Harrison are here, therefore, winning his way way past Knight. Can Billy D stay away from the pros long enough to pass him? Josh Pastner may be the only other one with a chance.

Lets say K gets to only 1000 career wins -- which would be his likely total if he coaches 5-6 more seasons and retired at 67 or 68. Many folks expect him to go longer than that, but lets put that 1000 figure up there as the mark.

Donovan is 44 and has 282 career wins. If he coaches until he is 70, that would be 26 more years. He would need to average better than 27 wins per season to get to 1000 in that case. It is worth noting at this point that Donovan has only won more than 27 games in a season 3 times in his career. In fact, if you take out the back-to-back championship seasons, Donovan's career at Florida is not really all that special. That may sound funny, but my point is that -- unlike the other top coaches in college basketball -- Donovan does not habitually have his teams in the top ten every year. Expecting him to consistently put up 27+ win seasons when he simply does not have a history of doing that seems like a stretch.

Interesting that you mention Josh Pastner. The dude is 32 years old and has exactly zero wins to his credit. The only thing he has on his side right now is his young age. Lets revisit this one once he has a track record as a head coach.

The guy who I think is most likely to break whatever mark it is that K sets is one of K's former PGs-- Jeff Capel. He is 34 and already has 148 wins. If he coaches until he is 70, he would only need to average 23.6 wins per season to get to 1000. His career at Oklahoma is still very young, but based on his track record, 23 wins a year seems extremely doable. Heck, I would expect 25+ wins per season for him based on how well his recruiting has gone lately.

Back to recruiting, wonder how many recruits will take unofficial visits to Duke the weekend of Feb 12, when:

"Over 300 former players, managers, coaches and trainers, spanning the past 70+ years of Duke Basketball, will be invited back for the celebration"

of Coach K's 1000th game.

http://bluedevilnation.net/2009/11/f...s-1000th-game/

I'll bet Austin and Doc Rivers will be there. (NBA all star weekend)

Hopefully Harrison will be there to soak in the atmosphere of his new family.

Actually, the celebration is of K's 1000th game at Duke. K coached his 1000th overall game a couple years ago.

--Jason "hmmmm-- methinks I am going to move this out of the Barnes thread, feels like it belongs elsewhere" Evans

[CEF1959]

HB won't mean much to this. A few games here and there. K will become the all time winningest men's NCAA D1 B-ball coach of all time in mid-2012 (did I get that right? I didn't redo the math). He just needs to outlast Calhoun and Boeheim and hope that Bobby Knight doesn't come back and coach until he's 150.

Oh, and you'll still have to deal with the Pat Summit fans.

[91devil]

I think Bill Self is a more serious threat than Billy Donovan (a few years older, but more wins right now).

[JasonEvans]

HB won't mean much to this. A few games here and there. K will become the all time winningest men's NCAA D1 B-ball coach of all time in mid-2012 (did I get that right? I didn't redo the math). He just needs to outlast Calhoun and Boeheim and hope that Bobby Knight doesn't come back and coach until he's 150.

Oh, and you'll still have to deal with the Pat Summit fans.

Calhoun is 67, 5 years older than K, and is 28 wins behind K. If he makes it his mission to pass K then he could hang on until his late 70s and try to outlast K, but I think that is highly unlikely. We are talking about a guy who has had a couple health scares in recent years. Also, his program is still under investigation for what could be a nasty scandal involving the recruitment of Nate Miles and a former UConn manager who became an agent and appears to have been funneling money to recruits.

Boeheim is a far more likely challenger. He is 33 wins behind K but is only 64. He too would merely need to hang on one or two (likely two, as K will probably stretch the 33 win advantage into the 40s over the next half decade) seasons after K retires. Does he want to coach that long? No way to know. It may also be worth mentioning that he and K are quite close, having coached together on Team USA the past several years, and he may not want to stick around just to beat his friend's record.

--Jason "Bobby Knight ain't coming back" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I think Bill Self is a more serious threat than Billy Donovan (a few years older, but more wins right now).

Oooooh, he is a good challenger to mention. 46 years old and a total of 376 wins. If we use the same math as the other guys (K has 1000 wins and Self coaches until he is 70) then he only needs to average 26 wins per season to get there. Considering he has averaged 32.33 wins over the past 3 years and looks to have another 30+ victory season this year, he is a strong candidate.

I'd rate the challengers thusly--

1. Self
2. Capel
3. Boeheim
4. Donovan
5. Calhoun

--Jason "anyone else worth considering at this point?" Evans

[BlueintheFace]

Oooooh, he is a good challenger to mention. 46 years old and a total of 376 wins. If we use the same math as the other guys (K has 1000 wins and Self coaches until he is 70) then he only needs to average 26 wins per season to get there. Considering he has averaged 32.33 wins over the past 3 years and looks to have another 30+ victory season this year, he is a strong candidate.

I'd rate the challengers thusly--

1. Self
2. Capel
3. Boeheim
4. Donovan
5. Calhoun

--Jason "anyone else worth considering at this point?" Evans

-Roy likes Golf too much.

-maybe Brad Stevens at Butler. He's just so stinking young.

[airowe]

Calhoun is 67, 5 years older than K, and is 28 wins behind K. If he makes it his mission to pass K then he could hang on until his late 70s and try to outlast K, but I think that is highly unlikely. We are talking about a guy who has had a couple health scares in recent years. Also, his program is still under investigation for what could be a nasty scandal involving the recruitment of Nate Miles and a former UConn manager who became an agent and appears to have been funneling money to recruits.

Boeheim is a far more likely challenger. He is 33 wins behind K but is only 64. He too would merely need to hang on one or two (likely two, as K will probably stretch the 33 win advantage into the 40s over the next half decade) seasons after K retires. Does he want to coach that long? No way to know. It may also be worth mentioning that he and K are quite close, having coached together on Team USA the past several years, and he may not want to stick around just to beat his friend's record.

--Jason "Bobby Knight ain't coming back" Evans

Interesting note on Boeheim, he was on Dan Patrick Show this morning talking about the 800th win. He said there's no way he'll ever pass Coach K because K's going to coach for at least 10 more years and he can't believe the energy and excitement K has for the game at his age.

Boeheim said K will have over 1100 wins by the time he's done. Hope he's right!

Listen here:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/dan...661/index.html

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

I'm can see Donovan doing it maybe self, If Capel continues to get better he can do it as well and if anyone does it i hope it's capel.

[Olympic Fan]

I like the line from the Gumball Rally, when the Italian race car driver rips down the rear-view mirror and says, "I never worry about what's behind me."

NOBODY is gaining on K -- not over any sustained period. He's coached more wins in the last decade than any coach in any decade in history.

Right now, our sights should be set on what's ahead if him. Actually, he's not likely to move up the career list this season (he's already 4th place).

Next season (2010-11) he almost certainly passes No. 3 Adolph Rupp and No. 2 Dean Smith. He'll finish that season close to 900 wins -- maybe a few less, probably a few more. The next year (2011-12), he'll zoom past Knight (assuming Knight doesn't return to the coaching ranks).

After that, we can sit back and watch how far out there K pushes the record -- 1,000 wins? 1,100 wins?

When he hangs it up, then we can pull out the binoculars and look back and see who is out there with a chance to close the gap.

As for Boeheim and Calhoun -- they are both older than K and have less wins. Unless he runs into an unexpected health issue or an even more unexpected loss of enthusiasm, then neither will catch him.

[JasonEvans]

-Roy likes Golf too much.

-maybe Brad Stevens at Butler. He's just so stinking young.

Roy is 59 and has 595 wins. So, he is 3 years younger than K but 200+ wins behind. He would have to coach at least 7 years after K retires, which just seems really unlikely unless K hangs it up unexpectedly early.

Brad Stevens is 33 and has done an amazing job at Butler. He has 56 wins in his two seasons there, an average of 28 wins per season. They would appear to be on course to something similar to that this year too.

But, compare him to Capel. Capel is 1 year older and about 100 wins ahead of Stevens. It is also worth noting that Capel is already at a major conference school and doing quite well there. There is a big difference in putting up big win totals and contending for Final Fours at a BCS conference versus being at a smaller school. The odds are excellent that a major conference power will come looking at Brad Stevens some time in the very near future. At that point, his career would take a very uncertain turn that could lead to a lifetime of uninterrupted coaching at a big program or could lead to troubles. Capel has already passed that turn in the road and is still sailing along. Plenty of young hotshot coaches have been eaten up by that turn.

Does that make sense?

--Jason "loving this conversation-- good way to pass the time until games and Barnes" Evans

[JasonEvans]

To pass the time, do we need a poll here? Who is the most likely coach to pass Coach K for all-time wins?

We've had some names of contenders. Anyone got any others?

-Jason

[91devil]

I think Bob Huggins, Thad Matta and, gasp, John Calipari also need to be mentioned in the conversation.

[Welcome2DaSlopes]

John Callipari is in no way going to pass K for wins. Half are going to be vacated and hopefully schools stop wanting him.

[brevity]

To pass the time, do we need a poll here? Who is the most likely coach to pass Coach K for all-time wins?

We've had some names of contenders. Anyone got any others?

A poll is a good idea. Let's stick with head coaching wins in men's college basketball. I would recommend including the coach's current job, age, and wins (as of the end of last season).

So far we have:

Bob Knight (retired, 69, 902)
Jim Calhoun (Connecticut, 67, 805)
Jim Boeheim (Syracuse, 64, 799)
Bob Huggins (West Virginia, 56, 637)
Roy Williams (North Carolina, 59, 594)
John Calipari (Kentucky, 50, 403)
Bill Self (Kansas, 46, 376)
Billy Donovan (Florida, 44, 282)
Thad Matta (Ohio State, 42, 229)
Jeff Capel (Oklahoma, 34, 148)
Brad Stevens (Butler, 33, 56)

We could add:

Travis Ford (Oklahoma State, 39, 213?)
If that win total is correct, he belongs on the above list more than a few names already there.

Mark Few (Gonzaga, 46, 264)
I think he compares favorably with Donovan, considering that he's good for 25+ wins a season, and shows no signs of slowing down or changing jobs.

Rick Barnes (Texas, 55, 472)
Not too far off the curve with the guys mentioned above. Has the benefit and burden of competing in the Big 12 with Self, Capel, and Ford.

Tubby Smith (Minnesota, 58, 429)
When he brought the Gophers to Vegas for a tournament, he looked great. Like, 20 years younger. Leaving Kentucky can have that effect. But I don't know enough about the man to speculate if he'd stick around another couple of decades. Bear in mind that his son Saul is one of his assistants, and some nepotism/grooming could be taking place.

Bo Ryan (Wisconsin, 61, 556)
I'm sure I was asleep for most of those wins. Wisconsin is the most boring team ever. Theoretically, this guy could pass Coach K and no one would even notice.

Herb Sendek (Arizona State, 46, 283)
When he wasn't beating UNC, I'm sure I was sleeping during these wins too.

Mark Fox (Georgia, 40, 123)
Sean Miller (Arizona, 40, 120)
Same age as Tony Bennett, who has 69 wins. Just a shade better positioned than the guys below.

Tom Izzo (Michigan State, 54, 336)
Ben Howland (UCLA, 52, 309)
Mike Brey (Notre Dame, 50, 287)
Tom Crean (Indiana, 43, 196)
John Thompson III (Georgetown, 43, 184)
Jamie Dixon (Pittsburgh, 43, 163)
These guys aren't quite in the conversation. Their offense? "Wasting" too much time as an assistant. How dare they!

Lute Olson (retired, 75, 781)
Gary Williams (Maryland, 64, 625)
Rick Pitino (Louisville, 57, 553)
Mike Montgomery (California, 62, 547)
The numbers do not favor these fellas, in my opinion.

By the way, I wrote about a similar topic a couple of years ago. I looked at younger coaches and speculated as to which were on track toward a Hall of Fame career. Some of the same names came up.

[cspan37421]

This debate hinges more on longevity than greatness, though you do have to be better than average to stay employed that long. To me it's a bit like saying that Pete Rose was a better hitter than Williams, Ruth, Gehrig or Cobb because he had the most hits. Pete got that record through longevity. He did not hit for power (lots of doubles, slugging isn't in top 700, OPS isn't in the top 500!), and his average, while very good, is not in the top 150 all-time.

To put it another way, if I could wish for only one of two outcomes:

1) K coaches 10 more years, racks up 1100 wins, but retires without any more national championships and just 1 more Final Four
2) K retires in 5 years with 960 wins, 1 more national championship and 2 more Final Fours

I'd prefer #2. It's more of a measure of greatness, to me.

[crimsonandblue]

I saw this yesterday and thought about mentioning Self as a challenger, but really, I don't expect him to coach to anything close to 70. The money and year-round grind of the job has really changed from when Knight and even K started.

If Self's 55, won another title, made upwards of $30 million, etc. I can see him either looking for the NBA challenge or just packing it in. If not by 55, then at 60.

That said, Self's also a guy who doesn't seem to mind the recruiting, the schmoozing, and the networking that goes on on a constant basis. Maybe he's another of these lifers. Not much about his future, but the KC Star ran an interesting piece on Sunday talking about Self's personality and his salesmanlike ability to project the side of his person that needs to be shown for the circumstance at hand. Pretty interesting read if bored waiting for real hoops.

[crimsondevil]

I'd rate the challengers thusly--

1. Self
2. Capel
3. Boeheim
4. Donovan
5. Calhoun

This is an interesting discussion, but I think people are putting too much emphasis on coaches who are a long, long (long) way from getting the most wins. Yes, Capel's in a good position right now, but you're making a prediction for something 20-30 years down the road. This is like predicting Prince Fielder will pass Bonds in career HR's - possible, but there's too much time and too many variables for that to be the least bit likely. Self is a little better, but he's still Albert Pujols.

If you ask me, the most likely to beat K is Calhoun, followed by Boeheim. What they have to do is pretty simple - hang on for about 2 years (or maybe just 1 for Calhoun ) after K retires. That said, I think the most likely outcome is that K holds onto the #1 spot for quite a while.

[Battierfan01]

This is an interesting discussion, but I think people are putting too much emphasis on coaches who are a long, long (long) way from getting the most wins. Yes, Capel's in a good position right now, but you're making a prediction for something 20-30 years down the road. This is like predicting Prince Fielder will pass Bonds in career HR's - possible, but there's too much time and too many variables for that to be the least bit likely. Self is a little better, but he's still Albert Pujols.

If you ask me, the most likely to beat K is Calhoun, followed by Boeheim. What they have to do is pretty simple - hang on for about 2 years (or maybe just 1 for Calhoun ) after K retires. That said, I think the most likely outcome is that K holds onto the #1 spot for quite a while.

Isn't Calhoun like 5 years older then Coach K?? I think he will most likely retire before Coach K.

[BD80]

... If you ask me, the most likely to beat K is Calhoun, followed by Boeheim. What they have to do is pretty simple - hang on for about 2 years (or maybe just 1 for Calhoun ) after K retires. That said, I think the most likely outcome is that K holds onto the #1 spot for quite a while.

Calhoun is not in great health, he has had multiple scares in recent years. I think it is unlikely he stays for even a couple of more years. But then, he does remind me of Bowden in many ways.

Capel does look like he has the best chance.

I still like to consider Josh Pastner. Age 32, 0 wins, but at a school that dominates its conference every year, and gets post-season wins. Averaging 30 wins a season for 30 years is do-able. Unlikely, but possible.

[Indoor66]

Calhoun is not in great health, he has had multiple scares in recent years. I think it is unlikely he stays for even a couple of more years. But then, he does remind me of Bowden in many ways.

Capel does look like he has the best chance.

I still like to consider Josh Pastner. Age 32, 0 wins, but at a school that dominates its conference every year, and gets post-season wins. Averaging 30 wins a season for 30 years is do-able. Unlikely, but possible.

I would guess the liklihood of 30 wins a year for 30 years, starting at 0 for 0 is about 1 in 100,000,000!