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  1. #661
    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    i'll do that...

    it's ovah!!
    I agree. Nice article on why it won't happen here:

    http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/37225758/ns/sports-nba/

    My favorite quote, "The Magic are going to lose because they have no one other than Redick who stepped up."

  2. #662
    I'm not sure we will be seeing Redick back in Orlando! /understatement


    Here's the problem with the way the Magic are currently constructed:
    -Vince Carter replaced Turkoglu's scoring, but no other facet of Hedo's game. Vince Carter is a one dimensional player -- scoring. Weak defense, and if you give him the ball of offense he will attempt the shot 9 times out of 10. So what if he gets fouled? he is not getting other players involved, and he takes some truly terrible shots. PLus, Hedo would rebound, AND was a great passer.

    SVG talked about shot selection....well Vince is 50% of that problem right there. When they look for Vince to be their primary scorer, the wider offense tends to stagnate.

    Without JJ in these last two games, Orlando is not even close. Look at Rashard Lewis's production, and Jameers production, and you can see why the Magic are crashing and burning -- the Celtics are defending those guys.
    Last edited by theAlaskanBear; 05-19-2010 at 02:04 PM.

  3. #663
    JJ has to get out of orlando. he is wasted under this coach.

  4. #664
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by theAlaskanBear View Post
    I'm not sure we will be seeing Redick back in Orlando! /understatement
    I agree 100% with the REST of your post, but not necessarily this first part, assuming you mean back next year. I have posted on this previously and in solid detail, but I'll dive in more now.

    I think Redick is likely to become a restricted free agent next year, which gives Orlando the right to match any offer sheet made by another team. In order for JJ to become a restricted free agent, Orlando would need to present him with a qualifying offer. So there are two questions here: 1) will they present the qualifying offer and 2) will they match the best offer by another team. The answer to #1 is a lot easier to predict that the answer to #2, methinks.

    (As context, JJ is currently in his 4th year and completing his rookie contract, which had 2 years guaranteed and 2 years of Team Options, both of which the Magic exercised.)

    #1 - Qualifying Offer
    I absolutely think they will present the qualifying offer for several reasons. The first and most important: recent history. The Magic picked up his 3rd and 4th year options very quickly, even when JJ wasn't playing very much. They picked up his 4th year option very early in his 3rd year (like in November) when he was hardly playing, which surprised many b/c they could have easily waited until the end of the season and picked it up then. They basically had to reason to do it from a pure player management perspective (I think the reason was that the GM, Otis, wanted to show JJ they still believed in him and to show him some confidence). When JJ asked for a trade, Otis even said we can't afford to trade him/lose him b/c we know he'll play and play well we'll look foolish for not keeping him around.

    The second reason: qualifying offers are based on the rookie salary scale, so the offer would be for about $3.9 million. Thats a decent salary for a backup 2 guard playing 20-25mpg, but not an enormous amount. Pietrus for example makes $5.3million, Delonte West is making a little over $4mm (there are examples both above and below that number, but basically its a very average number, though MAYBE a tad on the high side).

    So given JJ's improvement and position in the rotation, and given how the magic have shown they value him (paying him close to $5mm over the last 2 years) I think the Magic would definitely be willing to keep him around for another year at $3.9mm.

    #2 - Matching Another Team's Offer
    This is really hard to predict. Who knows if JJ will get an offer and what the offer size will be. If I had to guess, I'd say he'll get something like 3-4 years, 10-15 million (i.e. somewhere in the $3-4million per year range). If that were the case, I think Orlando matches. If he gets more like $5-6 million per year, then I think it becomes more of a tossup...

    Addt'l Info/Links:
    NBA Salaries: http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm
    Qualifying Offer Terminology (go to section 6, "Types of Free Agents"): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Salary_Cap
    ...a restricted free agent is subject to his current team's Right of First Refusal, meaning that the player can be signed to an offer sheet by another team, but his current club reserves the right to match the offer and keep the player. An offer sheet is a contract offer of at least 1 year made to a restricted free agent. The player's current club has 7 days to match the offer or loses the player to the new team. For 1st-round draft picks, restricted free agency is only allowed after a team exercises its option for a fourth year, and the team makes a Qualifying Offer at the Rookie-scale amount after the fourth year is completed.
    Last edited by SilkyJ; 05-19-2010 at 02:35 PM.

  5. #665
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Talking JJ is the Real Deal

    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post

    I think Redick is likely to become a restricted free agent next year, which gives Orlando the right to match any offer sheet made by another team. In order for JJ to become a restricted free agent, Orlando would need to present him with a qualifying offer. So there are two questions here: 1) will they present the qualifying offer and 2) will they match the best offer by another team. The answer to #1 is a lot easier to predict that the answer to #2, methinks.

    (#1 - Qualifying Offer
    I absolutely think they will present the qualifying offer for several reasons. The first and most important: recent history.

    The second reason: qualifying offers are based on the rookie salary scale, so the offer would be for about $3.9 million.
    Agreed. Van Gundy likes Redick, who has improved every year and is a very solid NBA player. See more opinion below.


    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post

    #2 - Matching Another Team's Offer
    This is really hard to predict. Who knows if JJ will get an offer and what the offer size will be. If I had to guess, I'd say he'll get something like 3-4 years, 10-15 million (i.e. somewhere in the $3-4million per year range). If that were the case, I think Orlando matches. If he gets more like $5-6 million per year, then I think it becomes more of a tossup...
    I guess I think JJ gets 6 years and $35 million from someone. JJ is a very good player, who has an NBA body and really understands the game. He can pass and shoot and is much better now on penetration. His defense is under-rated: JJ has hustle, knowledge, stamina, and is pretty darn quick, although not very long. (Anyone else remember the "Whom can he guard" talk at the time of the 2006 draft, which has now been answered?) JJ is in the league to stay and will make a bunch of money, although I, for one, wouldn't sneeze at his current deal.

    I would not be surprised at all if he stays at Orlando. Carter has been in the league for 12 years already and won't be there for many more. JJ could be the long-term solution, although there will be other teams where he could start next year.

    sagegrouse

  6. #666
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Agreed. Van Gundy likes Redick, who has improved every year and is a very solid NBA player. See more opinion below.
    And perhaps more or just as importantly, so does the GM, Otis Smith.

    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I guess I think JJ gets 6 years and $35 million from someone. JJ is a very good player, who has an NBA body and really understands the game. He can pass and shoot and is much better now on penetration. His defense is under-rated: JJ has hustle, knowledge, stamina, and is pretty darn quick, although not very long. (Anyone else remember the "Whom can he guard" talk at the time of the 2006 draft, which has now been answered?) JJ is in the league to stay and will make a bunch of money, although I, for one, wouldn't sneeze at his current deal.

    I would not be surprised at all if he stays at Orlando. Carter has been in the league for 12 years already and won't be there for many more. JJ could be the long-term solution, although there will be other teams where he could start next year.

    sagegrouse
    Wow! I could certainly see it happening, but I think that a longer term deal like that is less likely just because JJ has only been a fulltime rotation guy for 1 year, albeit on a top 3 team, so the "data sample" if you will if you are looking at him isn't as large as other guys who have played 70-80 games for a couple years, making a 6 year deal more of a "flyer" if you will.

    Another part of the uncertainty, for me, is that with this summer being the year of the big boy free agents, what does that do for medium-level guys like JJ? Do their contract offers go down because the teams are all signing huge max-contracts and have less cap room? (not to mention that teams have become more conservative as of late with the economy). And what about "image," meaning team X just signed Joe Johnson or Chris Bosh and you just spent $35mm on.....JJ Redick? What does your fan base think about that? I know I'm one of the more frequent posters in this thread, but I am not the greatest expert on NBA free agency, so maybe someone else who really follows this stuff can enlighten further on how this might play out...

    Despite that, I could see a lower level team with some $$$ and needing some talent at Guard offering him that kind of contract. What could get interesting in that case is does JJ take the offer. If you listened to his podcast with Bill Simmons a couple days ago, JJ basically said (IIRC) that he would rather play 20mpg and average 8-10ppg on a championship level team then go play 30+mpg, get 15 shots every night and average 15-18ppg. Classic debate for NBA players, and most would prefer the latter, but probably not surprising that the Dukie prefers team success to individual success.

  7. #667
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Talking Take the Money and Shoot?

    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    If you listened to his podcast with Bill Simmons a couple days ago, JJ basically said (IIRC) that he would rather play 20mpg and average 8-10ppg on a championship level team then go play 30+mpg, get 15 shots every night and average 15-18ppg. Classic debate for NBA players, and most would prefer the latter, but probably not surprising that the Dukie prefers team success to individual success.
    Don't you think that statement is for public consumption? I believe most players will take the money, unless it's for a team (the Clips?) that they really don't want to play for.

    sagegrouse

  8. #668
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    J.J. has definitely turned himself into a real NBA player, all right. Have you checked out his muscle definition? It's just amazing!. He's got an all around game that would be good at a lot of places. The way the other Magic players have been playing in this series, he should be starting, especially with the kind of quality D he has been putting on Ray Allen.

    But, it looks like the C's are going all the way. I don't see anyone stopping 'em now. The Lakers would have even money if Bynum were healthy, but he's not. Two years ago the C's blew 'em away without Bynum, and they'll do it this year too, especially since Derek Fisher will have to guard Rondo.
    So anyway, at least Shelden will get a ring (if not much P.T.!)

  9. #669
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
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    Western Maryland
    What is the story with the DNPs for Sheldon, is he hurt or just not playing well?

  10. #670
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Don't you think that statement is for public consumption? I believe most players will take the money, unless it's for a team (the Clips?) that they really don't want to play for.

    sagegrouse
    Well my point was the most players would take money, I even said so, but JJ and our Dukies aren't most players now are they

    Now, maybe that statement was for public consumption and he would take the money and run, but I'm just tellin ya what I heard...

    Quote Originally Posted by BleedsP287 View Post
    What is the story with the DNPs for Sheldon, is he hurt or just not playing well?
    SheldEn has been a DNP for months now. He is behind KG, Perkins, Sheed and Big Baby in the rotation, and basically has been all year. Nothing new.

  11. #671
    SilkyJ, you have this contract stuff down, very insightful.

    My question though is about playing time. Redick is entering his prime as a basketball player...if he ever wants the chance/situation to prove he is not just a role player, but an NBA starter, he has to do it in the next couple of years. Carter is signed for two more years.

    I think that Redick has to get a commitment from the Orlando front-office that he will be given a significant shot to become a starter as Carter exits the scene, and not just signed over with a big free agent. Its about the PT.

  12. #672
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by theAlaskanBear View Post
    SilkyJ, you have this contract stuff down, very insightful.

    My question though is about playing time. Redick is entering his prime as a basketball player...if he ever wants the chance/situation to prove he is not just a role player, but an NBA starter, he has to do it in the next couple of years. Carter is signed for two more years.

    I think that Redick has to get a commitment from the Orlando front-office that he will be given a significant shot to become a starter as Carter exits the scene, and not just signed over with a big free agent. Its about the PT.
    Thanks. I spent a little time doing research last year (or maybe even the year before) when people kept saying "JJ needs to get out of orlando" to see just how long that would take. Once I found those sources I linked to (which took all of 5 minutes) it was pretty simple.

    One thing I may not have emphasized enough is this:

    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    I think Redick is likely to become a restricted free agent next year, which gives Orlando the right to match any offer sheet made by another team.
    So what you say about JJ getting a commitment from the Orlando front-office is really irrelevant. All Orlando has to do is sit back and see what kind of offers JJ gets, and then match the one JJ signs if they want to. If they match, JJ is basically stuck in Orlando. Hence the restricted free agent tag. (And so if it seems like Orlando has JJ by the basketballs, its cause they do. And they did the same thing to Gortat last year when he signed a big deal with the Mavericks. He wasn't happy b/c he wanted to be a starter in Dallas instead of a backup in Orlando, but Orlando thought he was valuable enough to keep around.)

    Now JJ could take the sheet to Orlando and say "I'll sign with you for less, if you make X, Y and Z commitments" but those type of scenarios are pretty uncommon and usually happen in the NFL with top tier players taking a paycut to make room for other good players so they can win champsionships. This circumstance is similar in some ways...kinda....but I don't see Orlando going for anything like that and frankly I've never heard of it happening in the NBA (though it very well may have)

  13. #673
    Quote Originally Posted by BleedsP287 View Post
    What is the story with the DNPs for Sheldon, is he hurt or just not playing well?
    Well, he may be hurt as well. But the bigger issue is that Williams is the fifth big man in a four-man rotation. More importantly, there are two big men ahead of him in the "stout, physical big man" role (Perkins and Davis).

    The DNPs are nothing new for Williams. The guy has been averaging less than 10 minutes per game (and piling up the DNPs) since the calendar turned 2010.

    The Celtics are a deep and experienced team in the frontcourt. Like Ryan Kelly this year, there just isn't much work to be had for the fifth big man in a four-man rotation.

  14. #674
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Board violation?

    Quote Originally Posted by SilkyJ View Post
    Thanks. I spent a little time doing research last year (or maybe even the year before) when people kept saying "JJ needs to get out of orlando" to see just how long that would take. Once I found those sources I linked to (which took all of 5 minutes) it was pretty simple.

    One thing I may not have emphasized enough is this:



    So what you say about JJ getting a commitment from the Orlando front-office is really irrelevant. All Orlando has to do is sit back and see what kind of offers JJ gets, and then match the one JJ signs if they want to. If they match, JJ is basically stuck in Orlando. Hence the restricted free agent tag. (And so if it seems like Orlando has JJ by the basketballs, its cause they do. And they did the same thing to Gortat last year when he signed a big deal with the Mavericks. He wasn't happy b/c he wanted to be a starter in Dallas instead of a backup in Orlando, but Orlando thought he was valuable enough to keep around.)

    Now JJ could take the sheet to Orlando and say "I'll sign with you for less, if you make X, Y and Z commitments" but those type of scenarios are pretty uncommon and usually happen in the NFL with top tier players taking a paycut to make room for other good players so they can win champsionships. This circumstance is similar in some ways...kinda....but I don't see Orlando going for anything like that and frankly I've never heard of it happening in the NBA (though it very well may have)
    Isn't it against the rules of this forum to quote yourself?

  15. #675
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    Nashville

    Wink

    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Isn't it against the rules of this forum to quote yourself?
    Isn't that kind of like talking to yourself on your facebook wall?

  16. #676
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    Brookline, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Well, he may be hurt as well. But the bigger issue is that Williams is the fifth big man in a four-man rotation. More importantly, there are two big men ahead of him in the "stout, physical big man" role (Perkins and Davis).

    The DNPs are nothing new for Williams. The guy has been averaging less than 10 minutes per game (and piling up the DNPs) since the calendar turned 2010.

    The Celtics are a deep and experienced team in the frontcourt. Like Ryan Kelly this year, there just isn't much work to be had for the fifth big man in a four-man rotation.
    The official reason that was given for Shelden not dressing last night was back spasms. However, like CDu said, it's not like Shelden was getting a bunch of playing time with the Celtics anyways. He got a little more earlier in the season when Big Baby and KG were hurt, but he's now an end of the bench guy. There was some talk earlier in the season that Shelden should get some of Rasheed's minutes because Rasheed was playing so terribly during the regular season, but obviously that won't happen now. The only way you'll see Shelden in this series is because he'd have extra fouls to give against Howard.

  17. #677
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Philly
    Grant is on FIRE right now. 6-6 in the 3rd quarter, as the suns have come back to tie it...

    as I type he misses an 18 foot fallaway...

    Tied at the end of the 3rd. Grant has 17pt overall.

    The Suns have gone small with some success in the 3rd against the Lakers (when the lakers go with Odom at PF). I'm skeptical of that lineup, but what do I know...

  18. #678
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Philly
    You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability...

    Methinks this one is over as well...

    Lakers v Celtics, tho I expect a different outcome from '08

  19. #679
    Not looking good for PHX. 9-0 run by the Lakers.

    I realize the game hasnt ended yet, but thus far, Amare has had even more trouble than Boozer against the Laker bigs. Scoring has been a wash, but Amare has been a terrible rebounder so far.

  20. #680
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Connersville, IN
    Grant went off tonight, but I think it's a product of what one of the announcers said.

    The Lakers are content with giving Grant those mid range jumpers worth 2 points and making sure they don't get 3s. If Phoenix is smart, they'll have everyone do that.

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