Hey, so where does this all stand now? I've kind of been out of the box office loop.
Will Simpsons, Bourne (still tbr) or Potter knock off any of the early frontrunners?
What's upcoming for the last, before-school-starts weekend?
Spiderman 3
Shrek 3
Harry Potter 5
Pirates 3
Ratatouille
Transformers
Evan Almighty
Fantastic Four 2
Simpsons Movie
Oceans 13
Jason, Yep - my bad. Yesterday, I totally forgot Transformers.
The top 5 does appear to be a lock now, though the final order is harder to predict. I can't see The Simpsons or Bourne Ultimatum doing north of $200M, and all the other 5 (Spidey, Shrek, Pirates, Transformers and Potter) will be in the upper $200 range when all is said and done.
Incidentally, thus far if I had to rank the movie's in order of what I liked, my current ranking would be:
Top Tier - Full Price
1. Die Hard
2. Harry Potter
3. Ratatouille
4. Knocked Up
Next Level - Worth Matinee
5. Oceans 13
6. Transformers
7. Surfs Up
8. Pirates
9. Shrek
10. Spidey
Next Level - Wait for DVD
11. Evan Almighty
12. 28 Weeks Later
Next Level - Wait for Free TV or HBO
13. Fantastic Four
Hey, so where does this all stand now? I've kind of been out of the box office loop.
Will Simpsons, Bourne (still tbr) or Potter knock off any of the early frontrunners?
What's upcoming for the last, before-school-starts weekend?
I just happened to be browsing box office numbers and after last weekend (Aug. 4-5), I have to say I'm impressed with the DBR voters pre-summer poll. If you remember, those who voted (I didn't) predicted the top five summer blockbusters as (in order):
1. Spiderman 3
2. Harry Potter 5
3. Shrek 3
4. Pirates 3
5. The Simpsons
(6) Transformers
As it stands after last weekend (with last weekend's totals in parenthesis):
1. Spiderman 3 336 million (0.1 million)
2. Shrek 3 320 million (0.5 million)
3. Pirates 3 307 million (0.2 million)
4. Transformers 296 million (6.0 million)
5. Harry Potter 5 261 million (9.5 million)
6. Ratatouille 188 million (4 million)
7. Knocked Up 146 million (0.5 million)
8. Die Hard 130 million (1.5 million)
9. Fantastic Four 130 million (0.3 million)
10. The Simpsons 128 million (25.1 million)
11. Oceans 13 115 million (0.1 million)
12. Evan Almighty 97 million (0.4 million)
-- I'm just talking summer movies. For the yearly rank, you have to include 300 (210 million) and Wild Hogs (165 mllion).
-- Two recent releases have a chance to crack the top 10 -- The Bourne Ultimatum had a great opening weekend (69 million) and will almost certainly crack the 150 million mark, probably 200 million. Also Hairspray (79 million in three weeks, 9.2 million last week) will top 100 and could crack the top 10.
-- The obvious movie to watch from the current top 10 is the Simpsons Movie. It will clearly climb past Fantastic Four, Die Hard and Knocked Up. I think it will catch Ratatouille ...
-- Harry Potter also has legs -- the speculation that the release of the book would kill the box office for the movie turned out to be wrong. I think it passes Pirates ... can it catch Shrek (as our pollsters predicted?)
-- To me, the list shows that the summer's big flop was Evan Almighty (can a $100 million movie be a flop?) ... at least it most underperformed our predictions and the surprise hit was Knocked Up.
Just guessing now, it seems clear to me to exactly five summer films will finish at $300 million plus -- Spiderman, Shrek, Pirates, Potter and Transformers ...
Our pollsters got four of five and just missed the fifth. And who knows, it's not impossible that the Simpsons will catch and pass the Transformers (although I think that's unlikely).
Good job, people!
Thanks for the update Olympic! Who got all five movies right? I know I did
After the huge opening week, Simpsons really fell off hard last weekend (down 66%). That is a bad sign. I think it will struggle to get to $200 million.
That said, it has been an amazing summer from a boxoffice standpoint. 4 films are locks to make $300 million and Potter 5 has a shot at making it 5. If it had not been released so late in the summer, Bourne 3 would have a shot at $300 million too, I think. Sadly, people stop going to the movies after kids go back to school and that may kill Bourne's chance. Still, Bourne will be another $200 million flick-- probably the 7th or 8th of this summer.
Compare that to last summer when we had 5 $200 million flicks over the summer and only one $300 million film.
It is also worth noting that July of 2007 was the biggest month in Hollywood history, with $1.3 billion worth of tickets sold. July of last year had been the all-time leader though it was well behind this July with just $1.15 billion of ticket sales.
2007 is shaping up as the best year ever for Hollywood. YTD, we are currently 2.7% ahead of 2004, which is the best year in Hollywood history. 2007 is so far 6.5% ahead of 2006 and a stunning 12.8% ahead of 2005.
Strangely, as has been noted, it has not been a summer of surprises though. The movies everyone expected to be hits largely were hits. The only unknown film to make a splash has been Knocked Up. The only films that did much worse than expectations are Evan Almighty and Oceans 13. Oh well, I guess predictible is ok.
-Jason "you could maybe call Ratatouille a disappointment -- which is funny cause I think it was one of the better movies of the summer" Evans
I got lucky with the Transformers and went five for five. Thats better than winning the World Cup Pool. Okay, I'm woofing There are indeed some movie buffs here. BTW, Bourne is a wondeful escape.
I intend to see, although i have not yet,
Harry Potter 5, Pirates 3, and Evan Almighty. The jury is out on if I'll see Transformers
I have no desire to see, Simpsons Movie, Shrek 3, or Ratatouille
Spiderman 3 I enjoyed, thoguht it was a bit long in places. I loved Fantastic Four 2 and i'm surprised it didn't do better. I also really enjoyed Oceans 13. granted you had to really keep up to follow it, but that is what I liked.
Jason,
I'm interested in a couple of movies that will be coming out soon, "Death at a Funeral," "Becoming Jane," and "Invasion. Have you heard anything or know anything about any of these movies? "Death at a Funeral" looks hilarious, but I wonder if the previews are the only thing funny.
Thanks in advance for your input.
TG
Add to this a movie already out "I know who killed me" [Trailer]with Lindsey Lohan. I wonder how much of it's bad press is really more anti-Lindsey.
I have not seen "I Know Who Killed Me" but the word of mouth is just terrible and the reviews are among the worst you will find. It was not screened for critics, which is almost always a sign that the studio knows the film is total dog-poop. I have read a spoiler of the entire plot of the film and found it strange and confusing. Not good!
I have not had a chance to see any of the above yet. I am probably going to a screening of Invasion next week though and will post some thoughts then. I agree that Death at a Funeral looks good based on the trailer. There are not a lot of reviews available yet, but the ones that are out there on Rotten Tomatoes look very good. The reviews for Becoming Jane are kinda lukewarm-- not great, bhut not awful either. I am not a fan of that genre of film though and I probably won't see it any time soon.
-Jason "sorry to not have more for ya'll" Evans
What! Not a fan of the romantic lives of British authors turned major motion pictures? I'm shocked. (I am of course kidding.)
Looking forward to your review of Invasion though. If you do see Death at a Funeral please post a review for that as well. I don't really like what the professional critics have to say (I hope you're not one of them). You do seem to hit the proverbial nail on the head, thus enjoy reading about your thoughts.
Tilly "so glad Jason "the moderator post-a-matic" Evans" is back to putting clever lines in his name" Galore